Sino-US relations have deteriorated so far, and if there is no effective improvement in the follow-up, the probability of conflict breaking out will be greatly increased. Once the gunfire between China and the United States is fired, the decisive place may have been predetermined, and the Australian prime minister made an assumption at the critical moment, and the US military should understand.
At present, the open and secret struggle between China and the United States at the military level is mainly reflected in the two regions of the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. In the South China Sea, the United States has begun to reach various important military cooperation with the Philippines, injecting its own military power into the South China Sea on a large scale, ostensibly to "help" the Philippines maintain national security, but in fact it wants to form a force to restrain China in the South China Sea in order to further curb China's development.
The US military's intervention in the Taiwan Strait is more direct, and the US side has repeatedly colluded with the "Taiwan independence" forces on the island in an attempt to split China, and has even sold arms to Taiwan several times and sent military aircraft and warships to the mainland's territorial airspace and territorial waters for reconnaissance.
On the South China Sea issue, disputes between China and regional countries are more caused by the lack of clarity in international law on the territorial waters of countries in the South China Sea.
However, the Taiwan Strait issue is different, Taiwan has been China's inherent territory since ancient times, and it is the international order established after World War II. The Taiwan issue is an internal affair of the Chinese, and if the two issues have to be given one priority, it must be that the Taiwan Strait is greater than the South China Sea.
As far as the current situation is concerned, if China and the United States once wipe their guns and fire, the decisive spot will most likely be around the Taiwan Strait. Because the United States wants a local war, not a world war, if a conflict breaks out in the South China Sea, there are too many forces involved, and the United States cannot control the situation, and the risk of spillover from conflict in the Taiwan Strait is relatively small.
In fact, this thinking of the United States has long been seen by the outside world, and in the opening speech of this year's incense meeting, Australian Prime Minister Albanese also made relevant comments on the Taiwan Strait issue and Sino-US relations.
Albanese believes that "a conflict in the Asia-Pacific region is assumed", and the "conflict in the Asia-Pacific region" here refers to the confrontation between China and the United States and the Taiwan Strait that all forces are concerned about. He believes that this proposition itself is a very dangerous mistake, and the future of the Asia-Pacific region should not be regarded as "a foregone conclusion". He also urged countries to stay away from isolationism and nativism.
Speaking about Sino-US relations, Albanese said that he strongly supports the re-establishment of dialogue and exchanges between China and the United States, and believes that once a conflict breaks out between China and the United States, it will have a devastating impact on the world.
Unexpectedly, Australia, which has always shown itself as a "loyal ally of the United States", has become inconsistent with the pace of the United States on the Taiwan Strait issue, and it seems that Australia still has its own ideas when it really involves its own interests.
On the one hand, if a conflict breaks out between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, Australia, as an ally of the United States, will most likely be involved; On the other hand, and more importantly, Australia may not believe that the United States can win over China in this conflict.
Although the United States has many allies and many military bases around the Asia-Pacific region, after all, it faces the entire Chinese military reserve, and at this level, the United States has lost at the starting line.
In addition, the Chinese army still has a tenacious and unyielding will to fight; in the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea in those years, there was a huge gap in weapons and equipment between China and the United States, and China was able to push the United States back to the 38th parallel under such circumstances, which shows our firm will to fight. Albanese is also a wake-up call for Biden this time, if he wants to have a frontal conflict with China, he must think about the consequences.
In his recent speech at the incense meeting Chinese, Defense Minister Li Shangfu clearly pointed out that China has now opened the skylight and said that the two sides of the strait will definitely be reunified, and the only thing that can be discussed now is the way of reunification, and whether it is military reunification or peaceful reunification depends on the concrete actions of the Taiwan authorities and external forces.