Perspective: AI listed companies
AI is changing the world faster than people think. Recently, ChatGPT passed the American medical and certified public accountant exams one after another. Listed AI companies have received continuous attention from capital. What technological breakthroughs have global technology giants such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Google made in the field of artificial intelligence? What is the current situation of artificial intelligence layout of listed companies in China? What will happen to the AI sector in the future? This issue of the capital market will make an in-depth analysis, please pay attention to it.
Image source/Xinhua News Agency
Looking ahead to the future of AI, experts say that most companies can use AI tools to discover optimal operating models and make reliable predictions of production management and market demand and evolution, and AI and its tools will be key to driving the next generation of consumers and enterprises in various industries information technology applications and tools.
■ Liu Hui, reporter of China Economic Times
Artificial intelligence is changing the world, and the speed of change is far greater than people think.
Not to mention that ChatGPT has passed the American physician and certified public accountant exams, it has also entered the homes of ordinary people. One internet mogul said that his elementary school daughter created her first novel using ChatGPT and one-click artificial intelligence (AI) images, and he was very happy after reading it. Another tech company founder said he was practicing spoken English with AI, which can simulate various life scenarios.
Some economists say ChatGPT is becoming the 25th general-purpose technology, after humanity's greatest invention was the wheel. The generative AI large model platform represented by ChatGPT is a milestone tool in the development of AI and a product of the development of information technology revolution to a specific historical stage. Many people will be curious to ask: what technological breakthroughs are global technology companies in the field of artificial intelligence? What is the current situation of artificial intelligence layout of listed companies in China? How will artificial intelligence change the world in the future?
What the world's top AI companies do
The fastest progress in global AI technology continues to come from the United States and Europe. Musk, the founder of OpenAI, which developed ChatGPT, has quit the company, and he said on May 23 of the gap between artificial intelligence between China and the United States, "The gap is about 12 months." ”
Yi Weidong, one of the leaders of China's Internet of Things industry and a professor at the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with the China Economic Times that in addition to OpenAI, the world's top artificial intelligence companies include NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and IBM.
Yi Weidong introduced to reporters what global technology giants have been doing recently. NVIDIA is a world-class giant of AI computing power and computing hardware platforms, its GPU, DPU, CPU, systems and their software are in a leading and leading position in the market, and are creating supercomputers suitable for AI use and solving AI problems that ordinary computers cannot solve, Nvidia AI frameworks and development tools can quickly build, deploy and manage custom applications.
Microsoft is the initiator of this wave of AI, not only investing heavily in AI, but also cooperating with OpenAI and NVIDIA. Microsoft is developing a chip called Athena, with the goal of providing a computing power engine for OpenAI and eventually stealing the market for Nvidia through Microsoft's Azure cloud service.
Google is the leader of the underlying AI model and its application, a global search engine giant, and the leader of this round of AI technology wave. Google has invested heavily in machine learning and artificial intelligence, developing a natural language model BERT with superior human language understanding and has been used in search engines, and recently developed a generative artificial intelligence tool called DialogApplications Language Model (LaMDA), which uses OpenAI-like technology.
Amazon is a leader in the application of AI industry, developing artificial intelligence algorithms to support its recommendation engine for e-commerce, video and music streaming, and also using artificial intelligence to determine product rankings and optimize logistics operations. Drone delivery, which has long sought to implement, is another AI application for the tech giant. AI provides a better foundation for companies to enter new businesses quickly and efficiently, and explore new markets.
IBM is a leader in the delivery of AI enterprise solutions and services. IBM focuses on developing and applying artificial intelligence to enhance human intelligence, improve management efficiency or reduce production costs.
Du Xinze, deputy general manager of the artificial intelligence industry research center of CCID Consulting, said in an interview with the China Economic Times that from a global point of view, in addition to OpenAI, Google, Deepmind, and Microsoft, there are three representative algorithm research and development companies: Anthropic, AI21Labs, and StabilityAI.
Anthropic is an AI technology company founded by the former OpenAI team, and Claude launched similar features to ChatGPT.
AI21Labs is a company founded in Israel in 2017 that provides natural language processing services.
Founded in 2020, StabilityAI is mainly engaged in the research and development of generative artificial intelligence, and the StableDiffusion model launched by StableDiffusion can create high-resolution image creation, which directly promotes the application and development of AIGC (artificial intelligence content generation) in virtual reality, games, film production and other fields.
In Du Xinze's view, the artificial intelligence technology revolution triggered by ChatGPT is extremely subversive for the industry, on the one hand, the AIGC application based on generative pre-training models breaks the inherent cognition of machine capabilities; On the other hand, advances in machine understanding brought about by big models will disrupt the way humans interact with machines, changing future business models.
Kai-Fu Lee, chairman of Innovation Factory, said, "Although the current AI model is not perfect, it contains tens of trillions of dollars of business opportunities. "But big model training is also only the strength of technology giants." Dai Qionghai, chairman of the Chinese Institute of Industrial Intelligence, said that the cost of algorithm large models is becoming increasingly high, with GPT-3 training costs of about $5 million per time, and GPT series research investment exceeding $3 billion. And the model is getting bigger and bigger, and the GPT-3 training data is about 450,000 years of text volume in People's Daily.
Without sufficient investment, it will not be possible to directly participate in the next generation of AI industry
There are many concept stocks related to artificial intelligence in China, such as algorithm models such as Baidu and 360, supercomputing power such as Zhongke Sugon, Huawei, Inspur Information, and basic computing power such as Aofei Data; "AI+Education" such as iFLYTEK, "AI+Industry" such as Central Control Technology, "AI+Healthcare" such as Entrepreneurial Wellcom, "AI+Finance" such as Huishun, Oriental Wealth, "AI+Cybersecurity" such as Anheng Information, and so on.
Chen Xudong, chairman of IBM Greater China, recently said: "Nearly 60% of Chinese companies are actively deploying AI, and 70% are considering using AI to accelerate environmental, social and governance processes. ”
Yang Chang, chief analyst of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute, told this reporter that the concept of artificial intelligence was proposed as early as the 50s of the 20th century, but due to theoretical limitations and several troughs, since the deep learning algorithm was proposed in 2006, artificial intelligence ushered in the third wave of development. At present, foreign countries represented by ChatGPT-4 have formed a leading advantage in artificial intelligence large models. In China, there are many types of large models such as Baidu Wenxin, Ali Dharma Academy multimodal M6, Pangu large model jointly developed by Huawei and Pengcheng Lab, and Wudao 2.0 of Beijing KLCII Artificial Intelligence Research Institute.
Reporters contacted Baidu, Huawei, Tencent and other companies for interviews about artificial intelligence, but the company failed to give more responses. But Baidu Chairman Robin Li said at the Zhongguancun Forum that "all future applications will be developed based on the big model and will be integrated into the real economy." Big models will change the world. ”
Yi Weidong told this reporter that domestic listed companies involved in artificial intelligence large models and generative AI-related technology sectors basically turned in after seeing the opportunities and popularity of large models, and some companies did not have substantial innovation or breakthroughs in technology. From 2010 to 2018, AI unicorn listed companies emerged in the wave of AI entrepreneurship, and their core technologies are mainly based on small models of deep learning, and their industry applications are limited. As for the domestic listed companies that can really provide computing power hardware for AI large models, they have not yet seen it. In general, the underlying core technologies of these AI-related listed companies are mainly obtained through learning, introduction and digestion, and it will take time to truly own their own unique core technologies.
Yi Weidong said that in terms of the core technology of the original underlying large model similar to OpenAI, Li Yanhong once said: "China will basically not produce another OpenAI." "These companies basically do language or image vision applications, the most are companies that do multimodal applications, and few companies do the underlying large model or large model infrastructure optimization. In the specific direction, a small number of companies are in the field of chatBot, and most of them are in the field of productivity tools, including copywriting, script generation, avatars, video ad generation, etc.
Du Xinze told this reporter that the listed companies in the domestic artificial intelligence sector are mainly divided into three categories: the first is large-scale technology enterprises, the second is the rapid development of enterprises relying on the wave of artificial intelligence, and the third is traditional industry enterprises, relying on the market advantages of specific industries to carry out artificial intelligence research and promote their own business upgrading. The emergence of ChatGPT not only allows people to see the machine creation ability beyond human imagination, but also allows practitioners to see the possibility of artificial intelligence technology transformation from perceptual intelligence to cognitive intelligence, which directly promotes the technological revolution of the entire artificial intelligence industry, and many enterprises have begun to enter the technical competition of ultra-large-scale pre-training models.
Therefore, in Du Xinze's view, to judge whether the company really has technical strength in the field of artificial intelligence in the future, we must first look at how many resources the company will invest in the field of large models, large-scale computing power investment and the entry of more than 100 core algorithm engineers will be necessary conditions for the development of core technical capabilities of large models, and artificial intelligence sector enterprises without sufficient investment in research and development and without the establishment of a special AI algorithm engineer team will not be direct participants in the next generation of artificial intelligence industry.
Looking forward to the future AI prospects, Yi Weidong said that most companies can use AI tools to discover the optimal mode of operation, and make reliable predictions of production management and market demand and evolution, AI and its tools will be the key to driving the next generation of consumers and enterprises in various industries information technology applications and tools, which is very similar to the birth and development of mobile communication and Internet ecosystems more than 10 years ago. Generative artificial intelligence, represented by ChatGPT, will help enterprises bring AI technology to various mainstream areas of the market.
AI market will "remove the fake and keep the truth"
Image source/Xinhua News Agency
■ Zhang Wei
Recently, iFLYTEK suddenly plunged sharply. The company responded that "the decline in stock prices was caused by a generative AI writing a false short essay, and the rumor risk was false news." It is reported that someone used generative AI to write a warning article "iFLYTEK has major risks", which attracted attention after it was leaked.
iFLYTEK is one of the popular stocks in the AI market since 2023, with the largest increase of more than 110% in the first 4 months. Standing at the cusp of the development of large models, the company released the "Spark Cognitive Large Model", and also confidently benchmarked ChatGPT and proposed a clear catch-up schedule. The stock price was shaken sharply by rumors, which actually reflected the market divergence after the big rally.
The development prospects of AI are generally optimistic. In the US stock market, NVIDIA's performance exceeded market expectations, and its stock price soared 24.37% on May 25, with a cumulative increase of more than 160% since 2023. In terms of domestic industrial policy, the 14th Five-Year Plan lists artificial intelligence as one of the "highest priorities" in the field of cutting-edge science and technology to accelerate development.
At the recent shareholders' meeting, Tencent CEO Pony Ma said, "At first, we thought that this was an opportunity for the Internet that would not happen in a decade, but the more we thought about it, the more we felt that this was an opportunity similar to the industrial revolution that invented electricity that has not been encountered in hundreds of years." ”
However, after the surge in AI themes in the A-share market, there was a market divergence, and the trend of individual stocks began to diverge. Some continue to revel, while others have a correction of 20% or even more than 30%.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund Management Co., Ltd., recently pointed out that the artificial intelligence sector, which led the rise in the early stage, has undergone a sharp adjustment. After the disclosure of the annual report and the first quarterly report, it will be found that many stocks in the artificial intelligence sector have performed less than satisfactory, and many stocks have even experienced large losses, while the stock price has risen sharply in 2023. This may greatly increase the risk of excessive speculation, exposing investors to greater risk.
AI development still has a long way to go, and investors can pay more attention to the growth of companies. However, it needs to be noted that A-shares have not yet formed a market pattern dominated by value investment, and hot speculation is often "false fire", and there is no distinction between good and bad. Some stocks "rub hot spots", and some face falsification of performance. Taking the previous hot meta-universe concept speculation as an example, Zhongqingbao, which bears the halo of "the first stock of online games", has risen nearly 4 times in two months, but it has lost money for three consecutive years from 2020 to 2022, and its stock price has now fallen by nearly 60% from its high point in 2021.
In the short term, the pressure on the AI sector is mainly the two major risks of profit taking and major shareholders reducing their holdings. Due to the large cumulative gains in the previous months, the stock prices of many individual stocks have doubled, and although there has been a significant correction in the short term, the pressure of profit taking still exists, especially AI concept stocks with deep participation in mobile capital.
Major shareholders reduced their holdings to "pour cold water" on the AI market. Haitian AAC soared to nearly 270 yuan on March 29, up more than 310% from before the launch of the stock price in January, and then disclosed plans for important shareholders to reduce their holdings. As of the close of trading on May 25, the stock was down more than 45% from its high. Looking at another AI bull stock, Rambler, the cumulative gain of more than 150% during the year, but with the announcement on May 10 that important shareholders intend to reduce their holdings, the stock price peaked and retreated. As of May 25, the stock has recovered more than 25%.
Some institutional analysts believe that the AI sector will still become a hot spot in the future A-share structural market, but the collective rush of blind speculation has passed, and will enter the stage of "removing fakes and preserving the truth". Huaan Securities said that the main line of AI will run through this year, and the market hopes to take the lead in reflecting the possible emergence of "exceeding expectations", but different investors have different tolerance for the time lag of performance cashing, and there may be adjustments after the industry has experienced a large increase this year, and it is recommended to "remove the fake and preserve the truth". Guotai Junan Research Report analysis believes that the AI market has entered the stage of "removing fakes and preserving the truth", and the priority layout can take the lead in entering the subdivision direction of the accelerated growth period.
The key to the AI market's "de-fake" is to return to the fundamentals, and those with substantial benefits or growth cash will continue to receive the attention of funds, while the concept stocks that rub hot spots will be beaten back to their original shape.
Who will artificial intelligence grab the "job"?
■ Sun Zhao, reporter of China Economic Times
Who will artificial intelligence grab the "job"?
ChatGPT-4 recently completed and passed the four major accounting industry qualification examinations, with an average score of 85.1. The birth of ChatGPT has triggered discussions between AI and people "grabbing jobs". Will AI replace more jobs in the future? How to rationally view the relationship between artificial intelligence and employment?
Song Xiangqing, deputy dean of the Institute of Government Management and director of the Industrial Economy Research Center of Beijing Normal University: As far as the current development process of artificial intelligence is concerned, some artificial intelligence can replace manual positions in certain fields. For artificial intelligence that needs to establish image thinking, aesthetic thinking and emotional thinking, it does not yet have the technical conditions to replace artificial positions on a large scale. For inspiration-derived functions, creative integration capabilities and advanced emotional activities, artificial intelligence has a bottleneck in research, development and promotion and application, and it still cannot replace labor and occupy artificial positions. However, in the future, it is not ruled out that technological and algorithmic breakthroughs will be made in the fields of primary creative thinking and advanced emotional interaction, so as to replace artificial positions in more fields and impact the artificial job market.
The development of artificial intelligence may lead to a shrinking artificial job market, but it can lead to increased productivity and efficiency, increased social wealth, improved people's welfare, and increased happiness. Therefore, rationally looking at the relationship between the development of artificial intelligence and employment, we must combine the benefits and effects of artificial intelligence development, and recognize the time richness, wealth increase and psychological pleasure brought by artificial intelligence to human beings. Therefore, while supporting the development of artificial intelligence, it is necessary to study the social wealth distribution system based on the widespread application of artificial intelligence as soon as possible.
Pan Helin, co-director and researcher of the Digital Economy and Financial Innovation Research Center of Zhejiang University International Business School: Artificial intelligence may improve the overall industrial efficiency, but artificial intelligence is more about auxiliary relationships for employment, rather than replacement. Some jobs may indeed be affected, but new ones will also be added. Every technological advance promotes employment and improves the quality and structure of employment. At present, there is still a certain distance from artificial intelligence replacing labor on a large scale in the short term.
AI is a productivity tool, and it is possible to maximize the social benefits of jobs by increasing productivity levels through AI. Some jobs may inevitably be hit, but this is structural and can be quickly absorbed by the market. As technological innovation accelerates the iteration of jobs, in order to be better qualified for the newly derived positions, employees may need to spend more time learning new skills, most of the employed people can adapt to the future development trend, a small number of people may be impacted, for this part of the population, society and the government should help, and even give the necessary minimum guarantee. In general, embrace changes in technology with a positive attitude.
Are you ready to guard against AI scams?
Recently, the Telecommunications Network Crime Investigation Bureau of the Baotou Public Security Bureau in Inner Mongolia released a case of using intelligent AI technology to commit telecom fraud, and Mr. Guo of Fuzhou City was deceived of 4.3 million yuan in 10 minutes. What are the key areas to prevent AI fraud? What should supervision do to do so?
Song Xiangqing, deputy dean of the Institute of Government Management and director of the Industrial Economy Research Center of Beijing Normal University: The current era of technological "explosion", artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, blockchain, Internet of Things and other new technologies have been launched in just 20 years. In this context, both positive and negative effects of new technologies will occur. The use of artificial intelligence to scam, infringe, etc. is also not alarmist.
In the future, the focus of AI fraud will be on high-income people, middle-aged and elderly people and teenagers who are not deeply involved in the world, and criminals will use artificial intelligence to use family affection and friendship to defraud. In view of this, it is necessary to strengthen government and industry supervision first of all publicity and guidance, strengthen the awareness and ability of the whole people to prevent artificial intelligence fraud, teach people methods, and let the people pay attention. To strengthen the introduction and use of new regulatory equipment, the most important thing is to make breakthroughs in regulatory technology, use AI monitoring and management systems to supervise AI fraud activities, and use developed regulatory networks and platforms to timely discover fraud clues and clues, and eliminate fraud in the bud. Strengthen the construction of talent teams to prevent AI fraud, and guide universities and enterprises to adapt to the characteristics of the AI era to reform and adjust talent training models and mechanisms.
Pan Helin, co-director and researcher of the Digital Economy and Financial Innovation Research Center of Zhejiang University International Business School: The focus of supervision should be on how to promote supervision without affecting the development of artificial intelligence, so that artificial intelligence can achieve sustainable development in a healthy environment. Regulation should be enforceable in the formulation of rules, and more reliance on technical means in regulatory means. The finer the rules, the more favorable it is for the development of the AI technology industry. Regulatory means should not only include algorithm-led regulatory technology, but also mobilize platforms and users to actively discover problems. Deal with violations in a timely manner. The difficulty lies in the fact that current AI crimes are hidden and not easy to detect. In terms of artificial intelligence supervision, for example, artificial intelligence works are required to indicate the source, indicating that it is feasible to generate, and can also use technical algorithms to identify whether they are generated, and then impose certain penalties on the illegal uploaders.
(Interviewed by Sun Zhao, reporter of this newspaper)
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