While both the Philippines and China have set up navigation beacons on Nansha Islands and reefs, and the undercurrent of the situation in the South China Sea is surging, variables have emerged within the Philippine Government. First, Vice President Sarah, the daughter of former President Duterte, recently resigned as chairman of the first major party in the House of Representatives; Not long after that, Philippine Governor Mamba led a delegation to visit China. He made a series of statements in China, expressing a strong desire to cooperate with China in various fields, and he did not hide his opposition to expanding military cooperation between the Philippines and the United States, and his tense stance in the South China Sea.
During his visit to China, Mamba led a 13-member delegation composed of local officials to participate in the ASEAN-China Sustainable Development Conference. He expressed his great hope for strengthening ties with China and explicitly put forward the principle of three "noes," that is, one must not allow external forces to interfere in the situation in the South China Sea, do not want to fight, and do not want to be used by external forces.
Mamba emphasized, "Many people in the Philippines have always believed in the slogan 'Asia belongs to Asians.'" ASEAN and China can work together in areas such as poverty eradication, climate change, and economic inequality. We hope to rely on our own strength and resources to take good care of our own backyard with China and other neighboring countries without outside interference. ”
Needless to say, Mamba's remarks are very pointing, and they are also very meaningful. As a developing country, the Philippines must maintain a stable domestic political environment and good relations with neighboring countries if it wants to achieve the goal of prosperity and prosperity. Introducing external forces into the local region will not only intensify the situation, but also undermine peace and cooperation among countries. If all neighboring countries adopt such selfish behavior, then the entire region of Southeast Asia may be drawn into the abyss of endless war, and the people of the entire region will eventually suffer. Mamba's remarks are not only a wake-up call to Philippine society, but also a wake-up call to relations between neighboring countries.
In fact, the governor of Kagayan Province is not a minority in the Philippines for his friendly and cooperative attitude toward China. Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte recently stated that "China's problems should be resolved by China itself, and other countries should not interfere in China's affairs." He also mentioned, "In terms of history and culture, China and the Philippines have common ground, and under the current uncertain situation, China has become an important partner of the Philippines in ensuring regional peace and prosperity." ”
Marcos's sister, Philippine Senator Amy Aimee Marcos has also called on many occasions to resolve the South China Sea dispute through a regional settlement under the leadership of the Eastern Asian Alliance, rather than relying on the United States and other major foreign countries. She also accused the Marcos government of ignoring the needs of the army's modernization and instead "relying on foreigners to defend the Philippines." She supported the re-examination of the Philippine-US Joint Defense Treaty (M DT) and the plan of the Visiting Forces Consultative Agreement (V FA), and at the same time expressed the need to "open the door to extensive contacts with China."
Emmy · Marcos also recently asked in a high-profile hearing at a hearing, "What is the contradiction between the Philippines and Taiwan?" Why did the Philippines conduct military exercises on Luzon, not far from Taiwan? However, on this issue, Mamba, the governor of Cagayan Province, who recently visited China, should be on her side. Manba has always spoken out against the US military station, saying that "neighbors cannot become enemies, otherwise they will never feel safe at home." ”
Moreover, it is worth noting that two of the four bases in which the Philippines recently opened its use rights to the US military are located in the province of Kagayan. One of these is the Camilo · The base of the Ossias Navy is 623 kilometers away from Taiwan. This base was also a gathering place for joint military exercises last year. Another base in the province of Cagayan is the Lalo Airport, 3,5 miles southwest of Santa Anna, 5,90 kilometers from Taiwan, which opened in 2014, There is only one track. The province of Kagayan is mountainous and can provide sufficient defense for the US military units stationed there.
In addition, these two bases are close to the South China Sea, and the north is China's Taiwan island, which facilitates the US military's rapid reaction to the situation in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, and also helps the United States to "overlook" the key waterway of the first island chain. Including Japan, a series of islands. It can be said that these two bases place the Philippines in the center of the US regional strategy to "balance China" in the Indo-Pacific region.
Although Marcos has repeatedly indicated to the Chinese side that the Philippines has prohibited the US military from using the Philippine base to launch offensive activities against China, this is not enough to dispel China's concerns. A military base is a military base, and no matter how it is whitewashed, its essence will not change. Moreover, the relations between the Philippines and the United States are not equal, and once the United States eats its word and drags the Philippines into the vortex of the Taiwan Strait, the Philippines may and cannot do anything.
The United States hopes to put pressure on the Philippines and drag him into the Indo-Pacific strategy, so that the Philippines will become the forward military base of the US military and a "pawn in containing China." Although the Philippines does not think so, in fact, the United States has regarded Philippine guests as firing sites for fire arrows and missiles. However, with regard to the situation facing the Philippines, the interior of the Marcos government is no longer a "monolith."
In addition to the high-profile delegation led by the governor of Kagayan Province to attend the meeting, and the recent resignation of Philippine Vice President Sarah as co-chairman, the party has political alliance relations with the United Philippine Party in Marcos. In her statement, Sarah denounced the "game of political power." This shows that after Marcos took office nearly a year later, there may be differences between Marcos and his allies. Before Sarah left the party, former Philippine President Arroyo suddenly lost the post of senior deputy speaker who could be called the "second person in the House of Representatives" and was demoted to the general deputy speaker, which can be seen from this. The Philippine political arena is setting off a considerable infighting.
Although there are still many pro-US forces in the Philippine political arena, at present, it seems that the pro-US faction in the Marcos Government, represented by the military, has only temporarily gained the upper hand. The change in Duterte's policy toward China is a courageous attempt by the Philippines in pursuing an independent foreign relations policy. During this period, political relations between China and the Philippines were stable and economic and trade relations developed rapidly. However, the Philippines today wants to destroy this situation.
Recently, there have been frequent military and security exchanges between the Philippines and the United States, and the Philippines' foreign relations policy has shown a trend of being excessively pro-American, even at the expense of interfering in China's core interests. However, the Philippines has also made it clear that it cannot avoid paying a certain price if it provides the United States with more military bases. We are still willing to believe that the Philippine side will not be easily lured into jumping on a US chariot.
As a member of the ASEAN, the Philippines needs to ensure peace and stability in the South China Sea. Therefore, the Philippine side should cooperate with relevant parties to speed up consultations on the "Guidelines for Conduct in the South China Sea" and safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea, which is the largest country in the Philippines. China and the East Asian alliance countries share a common understanding in safeguarding peace and stability in the South China Sea, but the purpose of the new US military base runs counter to this. The Philippine side should realize that it is unreliable to rely on countries outside the region to ensure the security of the Philippines. Regional problems should be resolved by regional countries.
At the same time, China should also actively engage with the rational forces of the Philippines and let Sino-Philippine cooperation return to the mainstay of bilateral relations, so that it can hedge the US plot to treat the Philippines as a "pawn" against China. The Philippines should play the role of a "handrail" for the management and control differences between China and the United States, and should not become a "thug" for the United States to provoke a conflict with China.