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Domestic robots accelerate breakthrough Who can become the Chinese version of "Fanuc" during the expedition?

author:National Business Daily

Per reporter: Ye Xiaodan Per editor: Dong Xingsheng

Tapping "Kanon" on the screen next to the piano, a player named "Xiaole" uses his hands and feet, and then the melody comes out of the piano.

"Xiaole" is not a human, but a robot.

Domestic robots accelerate breakthrough Who can become the Chinese version of "Fanuc" during the expedition?

"Xiaole" playing the piano Image source: Photo by Ye Xiaodan, reporter

With the help of high-precision visual perception system, it can accurately locate piano keys, face and emotion recognition, and can carry out high-precision finger movements, repeated positioning accuracy of 0.031 mm, single-finger key frequency reaches 8 times / second, to achieve high-speed and accurate piano playing... This is a humanoid robot displayed by Zhijiang Laboratory at the 8th China Robot Summit held on May 24~25.

The reporter of "Daily Economic News" noted that at this summit, there were not only the latest achievements of humanoid robots that have attracted much attention from all parties, but also different forms of industrial robot landing products. The week before, Tesla CEO Elon Musk just introduced a new model of Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus and showed it live. The technological breakthrough of humanoid robots has aroused great attention from domestic and foreign capital markets.

In the field of industrial robots, the Expert Committee of China Robot Summit released the "China Robot Industry Development Index Research Report". The report shows that China has become the world's largest robot application market and the most active country for robot innovation and development, and the consumption of industrial robots has ranked first in the world for nine consecutive years. However, from the perspective of industrial robot market supply, Japanese and European robot products such as Fanuc and ABB still occupy most of the domestic market share.

Robots are known as "the pearl at the top of the manufacturing crown", focusing on the independent and controllable core components, the integration of the industrial chain, and the game of going to the sea... Surrounded by strong enemies, the breakthrough and expedition of domestic robots are being staged.

A small step for Tesla A big step for a humanoid robot?

On May 16, local time in the United States, Musk introduced a new model of Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus, this time, Optimus' new skill is to grasp objects, and AI technology capabilities have been improved again. In the demonstration video, the humanoid robot already has motor torque control, environmental exploration and memory, AI training based on human tracking movement, and object manipulation capabilities.

In Musk's view, in the future, people's demand for humanoid robots will be very large, and humanoid robots will be Tesla's main long-term source of value in the future. "If the ratio of humanoid robots to humans is about 2 to 1, then people's demand for robots may be 10 billion or even 20 billion, which will far exceed the number of electric vehicles."

Previously, the four-legged robot Spot Mini launched by Boston Dynamics was priced at about 520,000 yuan, and only about 400 units were sold in half a year, while the humanoid robot Atlas was not listed. In the face of high prices, Musk has publicly stated that his humanoid robot will be sold for less than $20,000, through more economical technical solutions, product standardization, low cost and mass production.

However, on May 22, according to media reports, EVE, produced by OpenAI-backed physical robot company 1x, beat Tesla's Optimus robot in a humanoid robot competition. Some of the software functions of EVE physical robots are supported by OpenAI's ChatGPT, which means that ChatGPT can be materialized and applied in real-world business scenarios.

The application of GPT technology in humanoid robots has also opened up new imagination space, which in turn has triggered the high attention of the domestic capital market to the robot industry.

Recently, robot concept stocks Fengli Intelligent and Keli Sensing (603662. SH, stock price 29.63 yuan, market value 8.385 billion yuan) and other individual stock prices fluctuated abnormally, once triggered regulatory inquiries. On the evening of May 25, Fengli Intelligent said in the announcement of abnormal fluctuations and serious abnormal fluctuations in stock trading: "The precision reducer products produced by the company have not yet been applied to the field of humanoid robots, and no relevant agreements have been signed; The company has not made substantial progress in the business of the intended customers communicated with this Canton Fair, and if a major contract to be disclosed is subsequently signed, the company will fulfill its information disclosure obligations in a timely manner. ”

At the China Robot Summit, the reporter noticed that Zhijiang Laboratory also exhibited its humanoid robot. Song Wei, deputy director of the Intelligent Robot Research Center of Zhijiang Laboratory, introduced in an exchange with the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the exhibition is the third generation of humanoid robots currently developed, and there are many directions to be conquered next.

Domestic robots accelerate breakthrough Who can become the Chinese version of "Fanuc" during the expedition?

Image source: Photo by Ye Xiaodan, reporter

For example, to drive, humanoid robots need electrical actuators with sufficient power density. To solve the problem of drive, the development of high-performance motors and reducers and the lightweight of materials and components are all directions that need further research. At present, most of the metal components required for the latest humanoid robot developed by Zhijiang Laboratory use 3D printing technology, and while considering lightweight, some components and drive parts are designed and printed in an integrated manner. In addition, humanoid robots have many joints and high degrees of freedom, and their natural and smooth movement needs to solve the problems of attitude control and balance control. How to couple multimodal information such as hearing, vision, and touch, and how to combine artificial intelligence technology with robot systems are also key problems to solve the application of humanoid robots in practical scenarios.

In Song Wei's view, the application of GPT large model technology to humanoid robots can provide "common sense" for robots to have understanding and reasoning capabilities. The middle model for robot operation can be processed relatively quickly at the edge end layout for robot operation, and combined with the motion planning and control small model deployed on the robot end, so as to build an intelligent robot system integrated with "cloud edge end" and complete the intelligent closed loop of humanoid robots.

Industrial robot breakthrough: from the "stuck neck" of key components to the collaborative innovation of the industrial chain

Guojin Securities pointed out that AI has helped the "robot +" era to come, and the robot industry chain is expected to usher in a period of prosperity and development. Zheshang Securities believes that humanoid robots are expected to promote the rapid growth of companies in the industrial chain, Tesla robots will further reduce costs in the future, and domestic parts are expected to continue to benefit. CITIC Securities Research Report also pointed out that the commercialization process of humanoid robots is continuing to advance. Under the general trend of commercialization of humanoid robots, the advantages of domestic cost-effective parts are prominent.

From the current actual situation, the greater market demand comes from industrial robots.

On May 24, the Expert Committee of China Robot Summit released the "China Robot Industry Development Index Research Report". The report shows that China has become the world's largest robot application market and the most active country for robot innovation and development, and the consumption of industrial robots has ranked first in the world for nine consecutive years. With the continuous release of intelligent demand in medical, pension, education and other industries, the scale of service robot industry is also expanding rapidly.

With the in-depth advancement of intelligent manufacturing, the application of industrial robots has rapidly expanded from the automotive and electronics industries to metallurgy, light industry, metal processing, petrochemical, food and beverage, pharmaceutical and other industries. The number of domestic industrial robots continues to grow, and the density of manufacturing robots is growing.

Domestic robots accelerate breakthrough Who can become the Chinese version of "Fanuc" during the expedition?

Products displayed at the China Robot Summit Image source: Photo by Ye Xiaodan, reporter

However, from the supply side, foreign brands such as Fanuc, ABB, and Yaskawa have a solid position in the industrial robot industry and occupy most of the domestic market share.

From the perspective of mainland independent brands, according to MIR-related statistics, in the first half of 2022, the top ten companies shipped by domestic enterprises in the mainland industrial robot market were Eston, Huichuan Technology, EFORT, Xinshida Robot, Delta, Jieka Robot, Kanop, Aobo, Luo and Turing. Among them, Eston, Huichuan Technology and EFORT ranked the top three in terms of shipments.

Previously, the gap between domestic core components and international first-class manufacturers was large, and the three core components of controllers, servo motors and reducers were also the main bottlenecks of China's robot industry. These high-end core components mainly rely on imports, and once the upstream of the industrial chain is impacted, it is difficult to find alternatives in the short term.

In recent years, upstream parts manufacturers have been rising, and domestic robots four dragons Eston, Siasong, EFORT, and Guangzhou CNC have continuously increased the research and development of independent controllable technology for core components.

On May 24, You Wei, chairman of EFORT, a listed company on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, said in an interview with the "Daily Economic News" reporter that in the past five years, the relevant head enterprises of the domestic robot industry chain have initially solved the problem of "whether there are any" core components, basically realized autonomy and localization, and need to further improve the performance of relevant core components in the future to solve the problem of "excellent or not". In recent years, EFORT has gradually improved its product capabilities, gradually penetrating from operating scenarios with low requirements for robot performance and reliability to high-end application scenarios related to advanced manufacturing represented by photovoltaics, 3C, lithium batteries, and automobiles.

At the same time, You Wei mentioned that domestic robots will combine artificial intelligence technology in the future to focus on solving the flexible manufacturing requirements for multiple varieties and small batches, solve the problems of high threshold for the use of traditional industrial robots and high operation and maintenance costs, and stimulate the incremental market that traditional industrial robots have not yet entered.

Referring to the current challenges faced by the domestic industrial robot industry, You Wei believes that after the core components are basically localized and autonomous, the difficulty lies in the mass manufacturing of robot products consistent with foreign robot products based on the realization of all autonomous and domestic supply chains, and the collaborative innovation of the industrial chain needs to be further improved; In addition, it is necessary to gradually deepen from the basis of component autonomy to realize autonomy and localization at the device level, such as robot-specific chips, robot operating systems, high-precision encoders, etc.

Industrial integration and expeditions

In January 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other 17 departments issued the "Robot +" Application Action Implementation Plan, which clarifies the development goals of the robot industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.

Local governments are also stepping up efforts to promote industrial agglomeration. Ningbo Yuyao City is promoting the breakthrough of the robot industry from "zero" to "chain" and from "chain" to "group".

According to data provided by the Yuyao Municipal Government, the added value of the city's high-end equipment manufacturing industry with the robot and autonomous intelligent equipment industry as the core increased from 5.59 billion yuan in 2016 to nearly 20 billion yuan in 2022, and the industrial chain integrating robot parts, complete machines and robot systems has initially taken shape. At present, Yuyao has 12 core robot enterprises and nearly 200 industrial chain related enterprises, with an output value of 10 billion yuan in robots and related industries.

Sun Shouxuan, executive vice president of Zhichang Group, a local robot "chain master" enterprise in Yuyao, revealed in an exchange with reporters that there are large and small robot parts companies in Yuyao, and the company has also launched a "full production" robot. "As an enterprise that makes its own controllers and robots, our parts were originally purchased and purchased, but now Zhigu Robot Town can meet 80% of our localized production."

Domestic robots accelerate breakthrough Who can become the Chinese version of "Fanuc" during the expedition?

Image source: Photo by Ye Xiaodan, reporter

Guotai Junan Research Report mentioned that the epidemic has impacted the supply chain of foreign capital, and domestic leading enterprises have ushered in opportunities. The development of mainland industrial robots started late, lagging behind overseas manufacturers in technology and scale, and the market share was small. However, with the continuous improvement of market demand, many foreign-funded enterprises have begun to pay attention to the Chinese market, and the domestic robot industry has also developed rapidly. During the epidemic, more foreign-funded enterprises affected the logistics, raw materials and other sectors, resulting in the inability to deliver normally, and the prices of many foreign-funded enterprises increased to a certain extent, resulting in the return of overseas orders. Domestic enterprises have relatively low prices and high cost performance, and have played their local advantages during the epidemic and seized the opportunity to expand their market share. The concentration of the domestic robot industry has increased.

In addition, according to IFR statistics, the global industrial robot market size reached a trough in 2019 and rebounded sharply in 2021, with global industrial robot sales increasing by 24% in 2022. Due to the acceleration of the development process of the digital industry, the demand for industrial robots has increased significantly, according to IFR statistics, the market size is expected to continue to increase in the next few years, and it is expected to reach 23 billion US dollars in 2024, with a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 2% in 2022~2024.

Domestic robot companies that have grown up in the breakthrough are also playing with international brands in overseas markets. From the core components "stuck neck" to the expedition to the sea, the domestic robot industry is receiving a new round of market baptism.

According to GGII statistics from the Institute of Advanced Robot Industry, in 2022, the proportion of China's mobile robot export orders exceeded 25% for the first time, and overseas orders are expected to usher in a new round of growth this year.

Sun Shouxuan said that although the company's industrial robot export share is not high, it has grown rapidly in the past two years, and the export volume in 2022 is about 20 or 30 million, and it is expected to have a 2-3 times increase this year. At present, the company is actively exploring emerging markets such as Southeast Asia.

In mid-April this year, the green harmonic (688017. SH, stock price 133.29 yuan, market value 22.47 billion yuan) and Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050.SZ, stock price 25.55 yuan, market value 91.747 billion yuan) signed the "Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement", the two parties will jointly invest in Sanhua Mexico Industrial Park to establish a joint venture with a registered capital of not less than 10 million US dollars, the main business is the research and development, manufacturing and sales of harmonic reducer related products.

Sanhua Intelligent Control said in a recent reply to an investor survey that artificial intelligence is the direction of future development, and the company has laid out the robot electromechanical actuator business, which is mainly composed of servo motors, reduction mechanisms and encoders. Harmonic reducer is a very important component in the deceleration mechanism, the company through cooperation with Green Harmonic, improve the technical barriers of the entire actuator, enhance product competitiveness.

Not only robot parts companies and complete machine companies go to sea, known as "machine of machines" machine tools, also known as "industrial mother machines", the larger market is aimed overseas. In 2019, Ningbo Tianrui Precision Machinery Co., Ltd. successfully developed the first set of five-axis five-linkage machining center in Zhejiang Province, becoming a cutting-edge force of domestic high-end CNC machine tools.

Li Quanlin, deputy general manager of Tianrui Precision, revealed to reporters that the company has specialized in CNC machine tools since 2006. At that time, the mold industry around Yuyao Ningbo was developed, and customers had a lot of demand for CNC machine tools, and in recent years, the local robot industry in Yuyao has developed rapidly, and many robot parts manufacturers have ordered CNC machine tools from Tianrui Precision.

However, compared with the increasing maturity of the domestic market, the overseas business of CNC machine tools is ushering in new machines. Li Quanlin introduced that in recent years, the company's overseas business has continued to develop, and since the beginning of this year, nearly 70% of the orders for CNC machine tools have come from abroad.

Of course, for domestic industrial robots, challenges remain. Data show that in the first quarter of 2023, domestic industrial robot sales fell by about 3.3% year-on-year, of which industrial robot sales fell sharply from January to February, and the decline narrowed in March. A number of industrial robot industry insiders revealed that the current industrial robot price war and involution intensified, robot gross profit margin declined, enterprises to break through, or need to find a higher gross profit space customer market, or need to find a new incremental space.

Perhaps, in the baptism of breakthrough and expedition, the domestic robot industry will also temper the Chinese version of Fanuc "walking on a narrow road".

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