With his 20th goal and 20th assist of the season in Paris, Messi's career reached a new milestone. When La Liga gave Messi the green light to return to Barca, how far is he from returning home?
According to the financial forecast of the Daily Sport newspaper, Messi's return is expected to bring back Barca 230 million euros in revenue and 100 million euros in net profit. Obviously, the red and blue are not just bringing Messi home to win more titles.
01. Interpretation 1: It is expected to bring an increase in sponsorship revenue of 150 million
a. 53% increase in sponsorship revenue? It should be more than 1 year
Recent media reports show that with the return of Messi, it is expected to bring Barca 230 million euros in new revenue. Of this amount, €150 million came from sponsors and €80 million from stadium ticket revenue.
However, it should be noted that this figure is almost unlikely to be an increase in single-year income. First of all, according to Deloitte's 2023 financial report, Barca's total revenue in the 2021-22 season was 638 million euros (93 million behind first-placed Manchester City).
The club's revenue is divided into three major segments: matchday, broadcast rights and commercial income, of which Barça's commercial income is 284 million euros (an expected increase of 150 million in sponsorship fees, equivalent to a 53% increase), which is 34 million euros less than Real Madrid's current.
Considering that the contract of the main sponsor Nike and Soundbreaker still has a long period of time, the possibility of major changes is very small, and Barca's potential sponsorship revenue is currently only the armband.
Even if Messi's return can bring more sponsorship, the 150 million euro revenue is unlikely to occur within a year, and it is likely to be the total revenue expected for many years to come.
b. The Barça sponsorship is basically sold out
Once Barça's armband sponsor was Beko, with an annual amount of 12 million. However, in 2021, they terminated this cooperation, only retaining the sponsorship of Barça's training uniforms (after expiration, they gave a breakthrough together).
Barça is currently about to reach a cooperation agreement with Philips to sponsor armbands, with a total contract amount of 44 million yuan in 4 years, of which the first year income is only 8 million euros, and after a two-year vacancy, it has not even reached the original level.
This is not an isolated case, Barça's sponsorship contract with the owner of the shirt is actually only equal to the data at the peak of Lotte, and even packaged and sent out the shirt training kit.
The total sponsorship fee for the men's and women's teams is a fixed +€2.5 million float of €57.5 million per year, while the amount of naming rights at Camp Nou is also lower than initially expected (5 million per year for the first 4 years and 20 million per year for the second 8 years).
To know that Manchester United's new training uniform sponsorship contract, with an annual income of 24 million euros (not even including the naming rights to Carrington base), this piece is equivalent to the loss of Barca.
Before Messi's return, Barca basically sold out of predictable large sponsorships, and the next thing they could do with might only be new areas or small third-tier sponsors.
02. Interpretation 2: It is expected to bring an increase in ticket revenue of 80 million
a. Changing temporary home stadiums: is it possible to increase ticket revenue by 80 million?
In Messi's first year away from Barca, Camp Nou's average audience was just 53,982. On the one hand, it is the impact of the epidemic, but also the departure of Messi that disappointed the fans.
However, as we enter the season, the average number of visitors at Barca's top 13 home stadiums has rebounded to 83,512, a record high. That's up from 79,192 in 2010-11, the peak of the Dream Three era.
In other words, unless Barça significantly increases ticket prices, there is little potential to be tapped in terms of the number of spectators to attend.
That's not the problem, as Barça plan to renovate Camp Nou, so next season's home stadium will be moved to the Olympic Stadium in Montjuïc. The maximum audience capacity here is only 49,472 people, and because of the old stadium and design defects, there are only 40,103 seats that can really see the stadium, and the maximum number of tickets that can be sold per game may be about 40,000.
According to previous report data, Barca's home match day loss next season will exceed 100 million euros because of the move (although Barca's budget limits the loss figure to 93 million euros, but internal sources say that the actual loss will exceed 100 million).
Will Messi's return make the stadium full every time and at the same time increase the ticket price significantly? For the average Catalan fan (non-pilgrim), this can be difficult. After all, they have watched Messi for more than ten years, and may be willing to spend a lot of money for Messi's return in the first 2 games, but it is unlikely to last long.
b. Didn't everyone lie? Messi has the potential to bring a surge in ticket revenue
From the above paragraph, with Barca moving to the temporary home, the return of Messi to bring an increase in ticket revenue of 80 million euros seems foolish.
So is this a Daily Sports lie? It's actually a matter of understanding, and in theory, 2-3 seasons to bring 80 million euros of ticket revenue growth (compared to the budget that reduces revenue by 100 million, not compared to the data of this season), it is possible.
First of all, we need to understand how high the ticket revenue of one of Barça's peak matches is. This season's victory over Real Madrid at home in La Liga generated a record ticket revenue of €8.2 million per game in Barça's history.
As many as 96,000 fans entered Camp Nou, setting an astronomical number. The main revenue came from a small number of VIP tickets, contributing 3 million euros (the number of boxes at the Stadio Olimpico is very limited, the number of VIP tickets will be pitiful, plus the need to pay a loan fee, which is why the expected revenue is much lower than that of Camp Nou).
Although Barça have achieved an all-time high in attendance and ticket revenue per game this season, their total matchday revenue is not the highest, because they have missed the knockout stages of the Champions League for two consecutive seasons.
AC Milan faced Tottenham Hotspur in the round of 16 of the Champions League this season, selling 74,320 tickets and generating revenue of 9.13 million euros, the highest in club history. The price of VIP tickets for the Champions League knockout rounds can really come to astronomical figures.
Barça have played the knockout stages of the Europa League for two consecutive years, not only without Champions League bonuses and broadcast fee dividends, but also in the loss of tickets is astronomical.
After all, last season's Europa League round of eight in Eintracht Frankfurt only earned more than 3 million euros, and this season he only played one play-off before being out.
If you play three more home games in the Champions League knockout games every year, maybe it is more than 25 million euros in ticket revenue, and you can achieve the target of 80 million in 3 seasons (after all, the Europa League home ticket revenue is much lower).
03. Messi with 20 goals and 20 assists: Come back and be at least the assist king in La Liga
a. La Liga's assist king is steady
At the end of the season, only Griezmann had 13 assists in the double digits, and none of the other players had more than 10 assists.
Messi's double-double of 20 goals and 20 assists in all competitions in Paris is not conspicuous in his career, but it has stood out from other players.
With room for depth, Messi's passing has been brilliant. Only this time Mbappe did not choose to shoot himself, but wanted to cross Ekitik, but was blocked by the defender.
On another counter-attack, Messi's direct ball was found by Mbappe, and although the goal was blown offside.
The only question is, after Messi returns to Barca, who is the fast arrow on the front line? Can you pick up Messi's wonderful pass?
b. Back to La Liga, Messi's goal count will increase: the pace there is still too fast
Messi in Ligue 1, in fact, there has always been a problem that the shooting feeling is not very good. This point is related to the fast pace of offensive and defensive conversion in Ligue 1.
Mbappe has greatly recovered his efficiency since he scored consecutive Ligue 1 goals after he was out of the Champions League. In contrast, Messi's actual goal was only 0.7 more than expected. This is not very common in his career.
When Mbappe pulled back and took the ball to advance, Messi rushed into the box without the ball, this time the position of the cut was still good, which happened to be the angle of the left-footed shot of the main foot.
However, the Ligue 1 defender is relatively flexible and flexible, and Messi did not even complete the shot. In the end, I wanted to cross, but I was blocked.
In the first half, Messi's first shot on goal was his favorite attacking rhythm. The current Messi still needs a midfielder behind him who can dominate the pass, and Ruiz played such a role in this game.
Ekitik took away attention after cutting the ball, and Messi was put behind Mbappe when Ruiz cut inside, but unfortunately the shot after the penalty area shot from the flank was not powerful enough to pose much of a threat.
Back at Barca, if Messi can get a few more shots to his liking, I believe that the efficiency and number of goals will be better than when he was in Paris.
Conclusion:
Can Messi's return to Barca bring 230 million euros in revenue while creating a net profit of 100 million? Whether this figure can be achieved or not, we can still understand the calculation formula of the Daily Sports newspaper, and the salary cost of the next 2-3 years after Messi returns to Barca.
Obviously, Barca's offer to Messi is not only a base salary of 10 million euros after tax, plus ticket revenue sharing, it is also an offer that can be close to the annual salary of Paris, which may also make Messi's return to Barca more hopeful.