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How difficult is it to reverse 2-0 at home: only 5 teams have turned over in 32 times in history Five big data is not good for the Green Army

On May 20, Beijing time, in the NBA playoffs, the Heat narrowly defeated the Celtics 111-105 away, leading the opponent 2-0 on aggregate in the series. The Celtics repeatedly stretched the point gap to double digits, but Butler was provoked by Gwey in the final quarter to inspire the will, contributed 27 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists, led the team to a wave of 15-5 climax at key moments, and took away the game victory, Tatum 34 points, 13 rebounds and 8 assists fell short. The Celtics have completely lost their home field advantage by losing two home games in a row, and the five figures prove that their lives are hanging by a thread, and the prospect of a turnaround is not optimistic.

How difficult is it to reverse 2-0 at home: only 5 teams have turned over in 32 times in history Five big data is not good for the Green Army

First of all, this is the 33rd time in history that there has been a home 0-2 situation, but only 5 teams have achieved a turnaround in the first 32 times, with a 15.6% probability of turnover, namely the Lakers in the 1969 Western Conference semifinals, the Rockets in the 1994 Western Conference semifinals, the Mavericks (now the Lone Ranger) in the first round of the West in 2005, the Celtics in the first round of the East in 2017, and the Clippers in the first round of the West in 2021.

How difficult is it to reverse 2-0 at home: only 5 teams have turned over in 32 times in history Five big data is not good for the Green Army

Second, excluding this year's two divisional final matchups, there have been 447 0-2 losses in the league's history, of which only 33 teams have achieved a major comeback, with a probability of 7.4%. The last time was in the first round of the playoffs this year, when the Warriors went down 2-0 on the road and won three consecutive games to defeat the Kings 4-3 on aggregate and advance to the Western Conference semifinals.

Third, under the seven-game best-of-four rule in the playoffs, there have been 339 2-0 games in the history of the league, of which only 27 teams have completed the reversal, with an 8% probability.

How difficult is it to reverse 2-0 at home: only 5 teams have turned over in 32 times in history Five big data is not good for the Green Army

Fourth, the Heat took a 2-0 lead in the series for the 18th time in history, and they held the record for all the first 17 times, all of which advanced to the next round of the playoffs, and it can be said that the Heat have triggered their own laws of promotion, which is also not conducive to the Celtics.

Fifth, excluding this year's divisional finals, there were 62 previous East-West finals with a total of 62 0-2 trails, of which only 6 teams eventually reversed, with a probability of only 9.7%. The last time was back in the 19 Eastern Conference Finals, when the Bucks took a 2-0 lead and were beaten by the Raptors for four consecutive games, and finally the Raptors eliminated the Bucks 4-2 on aggregate to advance to the Finals and win the championship that year.

How difficult is it to reverse 2-0 at home: only 5 teams have turned over in 32 times in history Five big data is not good for the Green Army

You know, before the start of this series showdown, ESPN gave the Heat a 3% chance of qualifying, and the Celtics are the favorites to win this season. However, after two games, the Heat have fought a complete turnaround, and data site FiveThirtyEight believes that their probability of reaching the Finals is 70%. The "Black Eight" team, which gave fans too many surprises in the playoffs, is still continuing its dark horse myth.

How difficult is it to reverse 2-0 at home: only 5 teams have turned over in 32 times in history Five big data is not good for the Green Army

The Celtics, on the other hand, are about to go to Miami, and if they can't fight back and win back, the season may end early. The bad news is that the Heat are undefeated in this year's playoffs, and the Celtics are in a pretty tough situation.

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