Nuggets and Lakers this round of the series, first of all, the conclusion:
The Nuggets have better known unique rosters and rotation intensity, but the Nuggets have limited room for adjustment;
The Lakers have more variables and depth, and are more likely to surprise and come up with a higher ceiling.
1. Basic disk
What is the core advantage of the Lakers on the defensive end?
Thick eyebrows under the basket protective basket deterrent. To break the Lakers defense, you must pull the thick eyebrows out. The Grizzlies can only do it in some periods of thick eyebrows and 3J, and the Warriors can use Curry's three-point line to block and try to pull thick eyebrows to the outside line, relying on the quick flow of cover people to steal the Lakers basket. The Nuggets do this more directly than the Grizzlies and Warriors, and the teacher will participate in tactics at the top of the arc, and it is difficult for the thick eyebrows to balance the teacher and the behind.
Compared with the Warriors' stealing finishers (Payton, Wiggins, Green), the Nuggets' Gordon, Porter, and Brown are larger, with higher average finishing threats, and James' defensive pressure is better than the previous round. Murray and Porter's ball-carrying shooting threat is not as great as Curry's, but the risk of delaying them is high, after all, Jokic can do more as a cover than any Warriors player in this role. Popper, who is relatively less involved in tactics, has a strong ability to respond at the point. The Nuggets' two weaker offensive points are Jeff Green and Bronne, but they are likely to encounter the Lakers' thick eyebrows that are not strong enough to protect the basket.
According to the normal routine defense, the Lakers can't prevent the Nuggets.
Conversely, the Nuggets are not good at defending against the Lakers.
The main difficulty for the Nuggets to defend the Lakers is that they can't hide Mr. Jok, their starters can fix the thick eyebrows and James, unless they change the starter, it is difficult for the Nuggets not to let Jokic directly match the thick eyebrows, because in addition to Gordon, the Nuggets starters can't face James.
Jokic defends against thick eyebrows singles, and the mobility disadvantage is not to be discussed. Delaying the ball carrier is the Nuggets' most common defensive strategy, considering that the downward threat of thick eyebrows is far from the Dunbao of a quick stop and throwing to avoid a stinky sweat, if Jokic is mentioned to delay the Lakers guard or James, the Nuggets will have too much pressure to collect thick eyebrows in the middle of other positions. If Mr. Jo retreats, then not only the middle shot of the thick eyebrows, but also the ball-holding shot of the Lakers guard must be looked down.
If Jokic does not delay and cannot slow down the Lakers' blocker, the consequences will not only be missed shots, but also allow James or Lakers guards to speed up and hit the basket, bringing more pressure on the basket to Jokic and increasing the risk of fouls. James and the Lakers guard enter near the paint area and have the ability to connect with the small space of the thick eyebrow, and the thick eyebrow is extremely threatening to catch the ball in this area.
The Nuggets have strategies, but they all have drawbacks, and they are likely to be responded to by the Lakers.
Both sides can't prevent each other, which side will be more uncomfortable?
Jokic's presence will make it difficult for thick eyebrows to balance both front and back, which is equivalent to breaking the Lakers' defensive roots. Although the Lakers are a team with two basket points inside, from the first two rounds of the playoffs, James' enthusiasm for protecting the basket is not stable, and he also needs thick eyebrows to control the basic plate first and then make advanced contributions. The Nuggets' offense is very three-dimensional, space, finishing, and mid-range hard solution ability are the best among the opponents the Lakers have encountered so far, which can be described as both internal and external repair, the Lakers can't keep only one side, and may not be able to keep both sides;
The Nuggets' idea of defending the Lakers will be clearer - within the three-point line. It is foreseeable that if the Nuggets are delayed, then the strength of the bottom corner will be large, and it is likely that the strong and weak sides will contract, like the sun, and miss a lot of three-point lines. If the Nuggets don't keep delays, then the scale of the 45° contraction block breakthrough will be large, and try to rely on forces outside the middle duo to slow down the ball carrier. A dozen of Zhan Mei will also try to shrink the two wings to prevent them from easily starting to accelerate. When necessary, the Nuggets guard some joint defense. They have a lot of size up front and excellent rebounding protection. However, it is likely that after working hard, the Nuggets will not be able to completely limit the Lakers' offensive basket and collapse defensively on the night when the Lakers are separated.
It is difficult to determine which side is more serious than the other. If I have to choose one side, I will choose the Lakers to prevent the Nuggets, because the Nuggets to prevent the Lakers at least have a set of strategies to do, and the effect depends on execution and luck, but the Lakers Anti-Nuggets are difficult to do at the strategic level.
However, if you open it up, you will find that most of the various "extra points" advantage is on the Lakers' side.
2. Additional points
We all know that the Lakers have at least two forms:
Three frontcourt + double guard form, that is, the commonly used Davis, James, Vanderbilt, Reeves, Russell starters, you can also replace Vanderbilt with Hachimura. This pattern emphasizes the ability to lead defense, assist defense and frontcourt positioning.
Double front + three guards form, Davis, James, and then Galasell, Reeves, Schroder, Walker among the 3 men. This form emphasizes more attack and mobility, and does not lose much of the ability to lead the back.
Which form is better for Nuggets?
When the Nuggets played against the Suns, they showed the ability to use non-space point pinch and assist defense, forcing Monty to basically give up Okogie and Craig, and make a lot of use of Shamet, who was played bad by Murray but attacked better. The Lakers have much stronger cover people than the Suns, have better team handling ability, and have more diverse initiating methods, and the anti-Sun's method is directly applied to the anti-Lakers, and the effect may not be consistent. But I also find it hard to believe that Vanderbilt's defensive contributions are enough to fill in his offensive damage, and there have been too many games to prove it.
Another striker, Hachimura, at least at this point in time, would be better to use than Vanderbilt. Hachimura has been 11-of-21 and 5-of-9 in the past two series, participating in basket protection 34 times, succeeding 15 times, and the success rate of basket protection is not low. Regardless of the wind evaluation of Hachimura under the large sample, so far in the playoffs, he is in line with this assessment:
A large-sized forward with the ability to misplace penalties, three-pointers, and assisted defense.
These features are complete, and it is simply the best puzzle piece of the playoffs. Pulling him up and pulling out the space, to the little Potter, it seems like a good arrangement.
The comparison and trade-offs between Van Debiao and Hachimura are not new, nor are they important, and Hamm knows this matter in his heart.
The key is that the Lakers will inevitably move some "fancy thoughts" with a large lineup.
First, will the Lakers try to make some defense-swapping?
For example, Van der Biao and thick eyebrows, is there a possibility of changing the defense Murray Jokic to block the demolition?
It's hard to think that this kind of defense change is effective, in addition to Jokic's ability to punish Van der Biao from the low post, thick eyebrows for Murray and follow the three-point line will also weaken the Lakers' protective basket, and the Nuggets punishing the center for pulling out the paint area is far more powerful than the Warriors. A more meaningful change of defense for the Lakers may be thick eyebrows/James trying to break the blocking of Jokic and Gordon, this kind of blocking occurs in a small space, Gordon's catch point is usually under the basket, thick eyebrows do not need to follow out after changing defense, can assist in the defense.
Second, will the Lakers try to keep the initial misalignment of the No. 4/5 position?
This must be the alignment strategy that the Lakers most want to achieve right now.
If you watched the Jokic and Embiid home game in Philadelphia this season, you should be impressed by Tucker's effect against Jokic, Embiid defended Gordon from protecting the basket, and cut off the Nuggets' internal pass. The 76ers won the game by misplaced in this group.
To be sure, the playoff version of him is much more brutal than the quiet Jokic, and if the Lakers do put a forward in front of him, he will destroy the counterpoint fiercely. Lakers these forwards, James in the first round of the playoffs proved that he is not right to 3J, changing defense for 1~2 rounds is acceptable, from the first round to defend Jokic, is equivalent to being actively consumed by Jokic. Van Debiao is too lightweight, Hachimura is thicker, and his defensive skills will be inferior, and he will basically be eaten directly.
If the Lakers pull out a few big men who are more like the inside of the previous rotation, the effect will not change qualitatively. Bamba's resistance may not be able to match the Lakers forward, Jokic sent him away in 3 minutes, and Gabe can probably last 4 minutes. TT is the player with the strongest resistance to the Lakers' frontcourt theory, but also the worst offense.
It is very likely that no matter how any frontcourt player other than thick eyebrows is used against Jokic, the combined effect of attack and defense is not as good as not moving this mind. But if the Lakers did, I wouldn't be surprised and I don't think it makes sense.
In this series, each side has a completely irreplaceable player - Jokic and Thick Eyebrows, which are called "trump cards" here. Consuming each other's trump cards while reducing the consumption of their own aces is something that coaches on both sides will move. The Lakers' 4/5 misalignment may not have an immediate effect, but if you can let others carry 2 more fouls for thick eyebrows and burn some more Jokic's calories in wheel battles, then you may see the effect later in the game.
Theory is such a theory, what about practice?
Maybe Jokic will tear up Hamm's plan in 2 minutes - the probability of this script appearing is not low.
But the Lakers can indeed move this mind, in turn, the Nuggets can't, because the Nuggets' frontcourt is less flexible, Porter can't be against James, Jokic can't be against James, only Gordon can be on these two positions, which locks Jokic in the position of thick eyebrows. To increase frontcourt flexibility , the Nuggets would have to bring Jeff Green or Braun up against James, freeing Gordon to face thick eyebrows, that is, only in a few transitions, the Nuggets can try to keep misalignment. The Nuggets will not be willing to change the starter, compared to the Lakers who are not sure who the 5th person is, the first 5 of the Nuggets - at most the first 6 - is certain, whether it is level or playing time, the gap between Green and Braun and the previous 5~6 is obvious.
In addition to spending time on the opposite position with a large lineup, the Lakers can also put on a three-guard lineup. Although the three-guard lineup must have a point to lose Porter's height, Porter is a player who plays mostly without the ball, has limited potential to improve production, and can punish but not infinitely punish the small. Conversely, Porter's guards who can play ball are also at a loss, and the Nuggets will hate the fact that the outside defense is torn open, which will further increase the pressure on the inside defense.
The playoffs have a higher minimum limit for a fixed eight-man rotation, and the head coach doesn't need to constantly try different combinations to make fewer mistakes — the Nuggets are that kind of team, the Lakers aren't.
But Hamm proved that although there are a lot of variables in the Lakers' employment, they can be used correctly in most cases, and at this time, variable and adjustable becomes an advantage. Looking at the past playoffs, teams with room for adjustment tend to take advantage of teams with only one model.
The Nuggets are also more unbearable than the Lakers.
Jokic and Thick Eyebrows aside, neither side can afford to pay for 2 unexpected fouls on their respective aces. In the absence of Jokic and the thick eyebrows, both sides performed poorly, and it was difficult to say who could play and whom. The advantage of the Lakers is that other rotations other than thick eyebrows can be acceptable if there are problems, and the first 6 of the Nuggets' rotation are very expensive.
What about James, you might ask? Do the Lakers have a player who can replace James? No. The problem is that James rarely gets into foul trouble, his ability to control fouls is almost the best in his position, and he rarely has a persistent slump in the playoffs.
The Lakers can also change their hands when a certain puzzle is not in good shape, use whoever plays well today, and can even withstand the injury attrition of non-core players in the series, while the Nuggets obviously cannot.
The Lakers' routine is also deeper.
We can look at the past two rounds of the series, the Lakers' strong sense of design:
With the Warriors' G1, Hamm raised his eyebrows for 44 minutes, played the Warriors to grab seven fatigue, and went all out to grab G1 to get home advantage. This advantage is stuck there, and the Warriors, who are weak on the road, have little to do;
With the Warriors' G3, James returned immediately after a short break in the third quarter, and continued to use his strength almost endlessly to suppress the Warriors' rally. Compared with the Warriors, the Lakers obviously understand the principle of playing flowers to rest first, and their vigilance is much higher;
With the Warriors' G4, Hamm brought out a dynamic and physical Walker to disrupt the Warriors' defense. The Lakers' X-factor mess is a regular occurrence in this year's playoffs without warning. The key change of defense with thick eyebrows, James' interpretation of Warriors tactics at key moments, are also caught off guard;
With the Warriors' G6, James, who kept a low profile throughout the playoffs, suddenly made a force, stormed the injured Wiggins to establish a positional advantage, and continued to play a big core performance that radiated the whole team after that. The Lakers suddenly changed their form again, and the Warriors were caught off guard again;
In the two-round series, G2 led 1-0 away and G5 after leading 3-1, James was eager to help the defense, but he would suddenly defend in other games. The G6 home match point went all out to grab the start, and the timing of the attack on the opponent's psychological defense was just right. Full of confidence in the rhythm of the series;
pinching Dillon's IQ and tricking him into blowing himself up with a grizzly bear;
Wait a minute.
Hamm is underestimated. James' 20 years of experience and control of the power point are also perfect. It can be expected that the Lakers will do everything they can to consume Jokic on multiple lines on both ends of the offensive and defensive ends, physically and psychologically. The Lakers have a lot of rotation and a lot of good players who can go to the free throw line, and these people will line up in various postures to greet the teacher. The Lakers will love Jokic's chatter with the referees, and they will also play a series of counterattacks with fast-hitting baselines and long passes. Once the Lakers play an anti-rollback snowball, it will be difficult for the opponent to survive.
So:
Will Jokic still fight the judges?
Does the Arched Fire mentality still explode?
What happened in the park in 20 years may not be replicated, but Jokic really has to find a balance between a high fighting spirit and a peaceful state of mind.
The Nuggets are the slightly dominant side, but that doesn't necessarily guarantee them winning the series. The more nimble Lakers have a variety of scattered small advantages, and their ceiling may be higher when the planning is properly executed. They will ask their opponents to be as patient and meticulous as they are, accumulating those fragmentary advantages in order to pass them.
Past indications suggest both possible outcomes. You'll have a strong hunch that this will be an extraordinary season for the Lakers, Thick Brows, and James, who represent some kind of expectation of the league and some kind of remembrance of the past.
But you also have a vague premonition that this season has its more important historical significance - will this be a handover ceremony?
If Jokic finally breaks through this hurdle, he will have a chance to beat the Eastern Conference team, write the most meaningful chapter of his legend, and finally find a king who is strong enough to convince the public in this seemingly blurred era.
Whether you can grasp it depends on this round.
Forward expectations: The Nuggets are small, but the Lakers are difficult to beat