#巴拉圭与台关系生变? #
According to global network reports, what the Taiwan authorities and the United States are worried about seems to be about to happen. Recently, as the countdown to the Paraguayan general election has begun, the voice of "severing diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities has reappeared, and the sound is getting louder and louder.
According to information disclosed by the media on the island, in the current presidential election in Paraguay, the opposition candidate Erigli is given priority in polls. When talking about future relations with the Taiwan authorities, as early as 1 April, he said that if he wins this election campaign, he will immediately "sever diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities. On April 12, in an interview with local Paraguayan television, Erigli reiterated what he said: once the election campaign is won, the so-called "diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities will be completely ended.
Figure 1: Erigli
I have to say that this is a thunderbolt for the Taiwan authorities. After Honduras made the right choice, the Taiwan authorities' current "diplomatic relations" can be described as a handful. To make matters worse, except for Paraguay and the Vatican, other "countries with diplomatic relations" are basically "unpopular countries" in the world, and their international visibility is very low.
Although the Vatican is small, its special religious status makes it very well-known in Western countries. Paraguay is currently the largest "country with diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, and the relationship between Paraguay and the Taiwan authorities seems to be very "iron" before. There is an example that can clearly illustrate this point: Jiang Wan'an mentioned such a thing when attacking the "high-end" vaccine escorted by the DPP, and the only thing that recognizes the "high-end" vaccine in the world, except for the Taiwan authorities, is Paraguay.
Even the United States and Japan did not dare to admit "high-end", but they did not expect Paraguay to dare to admit it, which shows the relationship between Paraguay and the Taiwan authorities at that time. Now, the Taiwan authorities, the largest "country with diplomatic relations," are no longer stable, and the candidate with the greatest winning rate has clearly sent out a signal that he wants to "break off diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities.
In fact, it is not surprising that Paraguay's relations with the Taiwan authorities have changed. When Honduras took the right step, when discussing who would be the next country to "sever diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, the eyes of public opinion on the island were on Paraguay.
Figure 2: Screenshots of relevant reports by media on the island
In early April, Britain's Reuters directly signaled that "the Paraguayan election, the Taiwan authorities will lose diplomatic relations again", and some analysts in the United States believe that if the opposition party does win the election, they are likely to accept the proposal of the country's agricultural lobby and establish diplomatic relations with the mainland. U.S. officials familiar with the matter told Reuters that the Biden administration has limited options at its disposal in this matter. In other words, if Paraguay really wants to "break off diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities in the end, the Biden administration has no way.
On the island of Taiwan, the eyes of public opinion have been on Paraguay even earlier. Jiang Qichen gave a direct warning on the relations between Paraguay and the Taiwan authorities at the questioning meeting of Taiwan's legislature.
In an interview in Paraguay, Erigli has made it very clear, saying that if he continues to maintain the current relationship with the Taiwan authorities, it will not bring any benefits to Paraguay's national development at all, but will lose the support and investment of the mainland. Arigli also mentioned that Paraguay is currently the largest "country with diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities, but the Taiwan authorities would rather give a lot of investment and economic assistance to some "non-diplomatic countries" than give more aid to Paraguay, and the Taiwan authorities' approach has affected the assistance of other Asian countries to Paraguay.
An important root cause of Honduras' severance of relations with the Taiwan authorities is the feeling that the Taiwan authorities are unfair, and they would rather give Lithuania a lot of economic benefits than Honduras.
Figure 3: Tsai Ing-wen
Judging from the current situation, Erigli's idea of severing relations with the Taiwan authorities is very resolute, and if we take into account the current superiority in Paraguay's domestic elections, I have to say that after April, the Taiwan authorities may have a more difficult life.