[Aika Auto Aika Unicorn Show Original]
After the cancellation of the green card, the tram and the oil car may usher in the ultimate showdown.
Not long ago, the proposal to cancel the green card of the passenger association caused heated discussions and appeared on the hot search. For a while, "the most 'ugly' green license plate or cancel within two years" became a hot topic among netizens. According to Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the association, the association has proposed to the relevant state departments to merge the blue and green cards, and it is expected that it will become a reality in the next two years. Regarding the reasons for the merger of blue and green plates, Cui Dongshu clearly said: "It is not because the green license plates are ugly, but the emergence of green plates hinders the development of the new energy automobile industry. In some cities, the purchase of new energy vehicles must give up the five-digit fuel vehicle number plate, and many people are unwilling. Therefore, it is reluctant to change to new energy vehicles. License plate issues have become the main factor inhibiting the development of new energy vehicles. ”
Cui Dongshu also made it clear that the special license plate for new energy vehicles is highly discriminatory and distorts the natural development of the automotive industry. Today, new energy vehicles have completely gained a foothold in the market, and there is no reason to be different from traditional cars in terms of applying traffic laws. Driven by strong subsidies and related policies, the core competitiveness of new energy vehicles has been formed, and will completely replace fuel vehicles in the future. Cui Dongshu added: "Under such advantages, the new energy vehicle purchase tax reduction policy should be abolished, which is conducive to the healthy development of the car market. In addition to the purchase tax, "equal rights for oil and electricity" will also mean that new energy vehicles that lose the advantage of national subsidies will no longer enjoy the various "privileges" brought by the green card. So the question is, is "equal right to oil and electricity" good or bad for new energy vehicles? Can the fuel vehicle market, which continues to decline in sales, take the opportunity to usher in a rebound? In this issue of "Aika Unicorn Show", let's talk about it.
Green = privilege?
In order to distinguish NEVs from regular fuel vehicles, the NEV licensing system was officially introduced in April 2016. Since December of the same year, it has been piloted in five cities, Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuxi, Jinan and Shenzhen, and later rolled out to the whole country, covering all cities in the first half of 2018.
In many parts of the country, green cards enjoy various preferential treatment. First of all, the most direct is the purchase tax deduction. This is the benefit of real money, the purchase tax rate is 10% of the fare excluding tax, taking a 200,000 car as an example, the purchase tax is about 17,600 (vehicle purchase tax taxable price = invoice price ÷ 1.17). At present, the national policy for the purchase tax exemption of new energy vehicles is until 2023, and there is no clear information on whether it will continue after expiration.
The second is to give policy support to new energy vehicles on the plate. For example, Beijing implements a separate lottery for new energy vehicles, and compared with the lottery pool of fuel vehicles, the lottery pool of new energy vehicles has significantly fewer people and a higher chance of winning. In Shanghai, new energy vehicles are directly licensed for free. In the "Shanghai Individual Non-business Bus Quota Auction" event in early 2023, the lowest transaction price of a Shanghai brand was 92,400 yuan, and the average transaction price was 92,497 yuan. To put it simply, buying a new energy vehicle and giving a license means that you can save nearly 100,000 yuan in fuel license auction fees. However, starting from this year, individuals or units in Shanghai who purchase plug-in hybrid (including range extender) vehicles will no longer be issued free of charge. This means that users who buy these two new energy models need to join the army of cards like fuel vehicle consumers. It can be seen that Shanghai has gradually begun to reduce policy support for new energy vehicles, and the effect is also immediate, and the proportion of Shanghai hybrid vehicle sales has plummeted from 24.5% in December last year to 3% in January this year.
In addition, the green card also has a seemingly superior right of way. In some cities with restrictions, if you want to drive every day, the license plate must be a little green. In cities like Xi'an, green vehicles are not only allowed to take the bus lane, but also enjoy preferential policies such as free parking in the case of tight urban parking spaces.
New energy vehicles also have an unknown benefit, although it has little to do with the green card, but it is also a real discount, that is, there is no need to pay the so-called "road maintenance fee". Many people may not have heard of the term road maintenance fee, it is actually the maintenance cost of the road. As early as 2009, road maintenance fees were "abolished", but this fee was "eliminated" in the form of oil prices, and eventually collected in the form of taxes. Domestic oil prices are taxed at nearly 50 percent, compared to only 17 percent value-added tax on electricity bills. The rapid development of new energy vehicles not only indirectly affects local finances, but also breeds dissatisfaction among fuel vehicle owners about new energy vehicles not paying road maintenance fees. In this regard, Hainan Province, which has the highest number of new energy vehicles in the country, may take the lead in trying to collect road maintenance fees for electric vehicles, and the charging method may be to count the mileage of electric vehicles through Beidou navigation technology and collect road maintenance fees through mileage.
Why cancel the green card?
It can be seen from the 7 years since the birth of the green card that the implementation of various support policies of the green card has strongly promoted the rapid development of the new energy market. In 2013, Continental's NEV sales volume was 352,000 units, with a market share of 1.8%, and by 2022, sales have reached 6.887 million units, with a market share of 25.6%. In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Passenger Association, believes that with the popularity and penetration rate of new energy vehicles, there is no need to use special number plates to distinguish between new energy vehicles and not.
The exemption of green cards for some urban traffic will only weaken the implementation space of local traffic laws in disguise, and even aggravate the current situation of urban congestion. In addition, the collapse of fuel vehicle prices and the record low auction price of blue cards also remind that the privilege of green cards should end here. It can be said that it is the general trend to cancel the green card, put new energy vehicles in the same position as fuel vehicles, and let the "invisible hand" of the market play a role. Of course, merging licenses is not a one-time thing, so Cui Dongshu gave a two-year deadline. When the green card policy halo fades, new energy vehicle companies may be under pressure, and traditional fuel vehicle companies may get a moment of respite, but in this two-year transition period, they have to think about what to do next.
Green = privilege?
The revelry was followed by loneliness
"In the next few months, new energy vehicle companies can breathe a sigh of relief." A staff member in charge of market research at a new energy vehicle company said. With the spread of information on the tightening of the "privilege" of new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles may usher in a new round of sales growth. Previously, every time the industry transmitted similar tightening information, it always triggered a round of new energy vehicle rush. For example, when new energy subsidies will be reduced by 30% from 2021 in 2022, data from the Passenger Association shows that domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in December 2021 reached 475,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 128.8%. Coincidentally, on January 1, 2023, the new energy vehicle subsidy officially ended, but in December 2022, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 640,000 units, an increase of 35.1% year-on-year and 6.5% month-on-month. The cancellation of the green plate may also usher in a small climax in sales, after all, this may be the last wave of dividends that new energy vehicles can catch up.
While "relieving", everyone knows that after the comes loneliness. Once the green plate is removed, it means that the privileged era of the green card is over, and all policies and regulations will treat all models on the market equally. Consumer car buying decisions are likely to change, for example, in cities where driving is restricted, consumers may no longer prefer electric vehicles, after all, there are still many problems with electric vehicles that have not been solved. For example, the cruising capacity has not yet met the expectations of consumers, the cruising range in the low temperature environment is seriously discounted, the safety problem of collision flammability, and then superimposed on factors such as car battery recycling, low residual value at the end of the service life of the whole vehicle, etc., it is likely that some consumers who originally planned to buy new energy vehicles will return to the traditional fuel vehicle market.
Or will accelerate the shuffle
Does the fuel vehicle that takes advantage of the pain period of new energy vehicles have a chance to usher in a rebound or even a counterattack? I believe that this question has been answered in the minds of most people, after all, after a hundred years of development, fuel vehicles have reached its peak in terms of technology and design, and the technology research and development of fuel vehicles has almost stagnated.
The competitiveness of new energy vehicles has been formed, consumer preferences and habits have been gradually cultivated, should buy or will buy, after all, consumers who pay attention to car experience have occupied the mainstream, for head companies such as BYD, Tesla, the impact is not large, after all, the head effect and brand effect have been gradually established. Taking advantage of the short labor pain period is just to further reduce production costs and accelerate the evolution of products. However, for third- and fourth-tier new energy brands, the same right of oil and electricity may no longer be as simple as the labor pain.
While forcing the head enterprises to further reduce production costs and accelerate product iteration, the green card cancellation will naturally transmit pressure to the third and fourth tier new energy brands. However, due to lower profit margins bringing smaller price reduction space, less R&D costs bringing lower technical barriers, coupled with worse anti-risk ability, the new energy industry is bound to usher in a more violent reshuffle. It can be said that the green card is the last talisman of the third- and fourth-tier tram brands, and the cancellation of the green card will also be the last straw that overwhelms the third- and fourth-tier car companies.
Therefore, taking advantage of the dividend period of the current green card policy, these new car companies need to prepare in advance, including the need to explore overseas markets and emerging markets, try to win local subsidies and policy support, and increase investment in research and development, try to reduce costs while solving key technical problems to ensure the competitiveness of products. However, the time window left for third- and fourth-tier new energy brands is already very limited.
Oil and electricity will face the ultimate showdown
Cancel the green plate to give fuel vehicles a breathing space, but the problem in front of fuel vehicles is not optimistic, there are two hurdles in front of oil vehicles, one is that the National VI B emission standard is near, and the other is the National 7 standard in three years, the latter is the straw that overwhelms a large number of second- and third-tier fuel vehicles. From the perspective of timeline, the iteration cycle of mainland fuel vehicle emission standards is mostly between 4-5 years, starting from 2021 when the China VI emission standard is implemented, and if it is pushed back 4-5 years, the implementation time of China VII should be around 2025. From the perspective of Euro VII standards, engine emissions and compliance requirements are the strictest in history, if according to past experience, if nothing else, the strictness of China VII standards will only increase, closer to the limit of internal combustion engines.
It can be seen that the cancellation of the green plate will usher in a wave of life for traditional fuel vehicles, but the situation is still not optimistic, the survival of the fittest mechanism will still work, and the arrival of the National VII emission standard is bound to eliminate a number of fuel vehicle companies. Although the cancellation of the green plate will have pain for new energy vehicles, with the breakthrough of the three electric systems, assisted driving systems, and human-computer interaction technology, the impact of the green card on consumers will only become smaller and smaller, and after the end of the labor pain period, it will also usher in a new climax in the development of new energy vehicles. At that time, traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles will usher in the ultimate showdown. As for wins and losses, the development of the market seems to have given a clear answer.
Full text summary: With the support of various preferential policies, China's new energy vehicle market has completed the transformation from scratch. With the continuous increase in the penetration rate, new energy vehicles have gradually penetrated into the hearts of the people, and the vast majority of consumers who choose new energy vehicles can no longer drive back to fuel vehicles, indicating that the trend of new energy vehicles replacing traditional fuel vehicles has formed. Also with the support of various preferential policies, while the pressure on national taxation and other aspects is not possible, it is impossible to correctly judge the true competitiveness of major car companies. Whether it is the cancellation of the national subsidy or the cancellation of the green card, the policy is sending the same signal, that is: it is time to let go of the "child's hand". Through fair competition with traditional fuel vehicles, it can not only allow new energy vehicles to obtain greater market space, but also allow new energy vehicle companies to regenerate in adversity and make the market more virtuous cycle.
Highlights Review:
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The passenger association will announce the sales volume of automakers for the whole year of 2022
The revelry was followed by loneliness