Establishment of diplomatic relations between Honduras and China: a blow to the "Monroe Doctrine"

On March 25, local time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Honduras issued a statement officially announcing the severance of "diplomatic relations" with Taiwan. On March 26, China and Honduras established diplomatic relations. The establishment of diplomatic relations between Hondura and China is not only an inevitable choice for the Hong authorities to pursue domestic and foreign policy, but also a wise move to conform to the tide of historical development. The limit of the "golden dollar diplomacy" of the DPP authorities in maintaining "diplomatic relations" is approaching, and the efforts made by the United States to "seek independence" in front of and behind the scenes are bound to go down the drain along the lines of the "one-China principle." The "Monroe Doctrine" will also bring gloom to the development prospects of Latin American countries and bring uncertainties to the Taiwan Strait issue in the process of maintaining the hegemony of the Western Hemisphere by the United States. However, with the continuous awakening of the sense of independence of developing countries, the "backyard" label given to Latin America by the United States will surely be lost in the dust of history.

China-Hong Kong diplomatic relations: get rid of shackles and embrace development

The establishment of diplomatic relations between Honduras and China is in line with the essence of development and a historical necessity, and "severing diplomatic relations" with Taiwan is the only way for the Hong Kong authorities to get rid of the shackles of ruling power. The DPP authorities in Taiwan have long channeled the interests of the Hong opposition Kuomintang, and the corruption chain has extended to the drug trafficking gangs in Hong Kong, which is actually a "cancer cell" that endangers the healthy development of Hong Kong's democratic society. The collusion between the opposition and the Taiwan authorities has been widely criticized by the people of Hong Guo, and has long laid the groundwork for the shrinkage of the "town with important diplomatic relations."

After Honduran President Iris Xiomara Castro Sarmiento took office in January last year, the dispute between the Hong government and the party gradually heated up, and as a vested interest, the Hong Kuomintang firmly opposed "severing diplomatic relations" with Taiwan, becoming the ruling party's number one obstacle to advancing the anti-corruption agenda. In addition, the United States has repeatedly put pressure on the Hong authorities on the issue of "severing diplomatic relations" between Taiwan and Hong Kong, forcing them to shelve the agenda of establishing diplomatic relations with China. After Castro announced his plan to establish diplomatic relations with China in mid-March, anti-China politicians such as Jim Ritchie, leader of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Republican Congressman Marco Rubio, immediately publicly threatened Hongdu, saying that "embracing China is a mistake." Getting rid of the interference of the United States and Taiwan in the independent decision-making of Honduras' internal and foreign affairs and "severing diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities is the inevitable choice of the Castro government.

With a weak industrial base in Honduras and a current ratio of nearly 50% of public debt to GDP, Castro's government will face greater fiscal challenges. In addition, the development of the flood economy is greatly affected by natural disasters, and the investment in infrastructure construction is insufficient, and the power problem is the main factor restricting the country's economic development for a long time. After the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Hong Kong, the export of advantageous products such as Hong coffee, bananas and seafood to China is expected to double to make up for its current trade deficit with China. At the same time, Hong is also expected to obtain a large number of investment loans by joining the Belt and Road Initiative.

The win-win cooperation initiative represented by the "Belt and Road" has gradually shown the world that China's cooperation model is different from the "zero-sum game" thinking of the United States and the West. In 2020, the bilateral trade volume between China and Panama reached US$9.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.11%; In 2021, China's trade with El Salvador reached US$1.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 55.9%; In 2022, China has surpassed the EU to become Nicaragua's third largest source of imports.

At present, Chinese enterprises have invested in the construction of the Patuka Three Hydropower Station in Hongdu, which can provide about 6% of the clean electricity for the country's power system, which will help Honduras adjust its energy structure and improve local people's livelihood. The establishment of diplomatic relations with China is also an inevitable choice for Honduras to follow the historical trend and embrace development. The "severance of diplomatic relations" between Taiwan and Hong Kong may have a chain effect of "severing diplomatic relations" with Taiwan in Latin America and the world. Paraguay and Guatemala, two countries with diplomatic relations with Taiwan, will hold general elections in April and June this year, respectively, and presidential candidates in both countries have said that they will establish diplomatic relations with China immediately after winning the election, and the influence of "one China" in Latin America is expected to be further expanded.

The "Monroe Doctrine magic" is weakening, but it will still linger

Out of its instinct to maintain its hegemony in the Western Hemisphere, the United States has long interfered arbitrarily with the China-related positions of regional countries. After Panama, Dominica and El Salvador "severed diplomatic relations" with Taiwan, the United States rudely recalled its ambassadors to the host country and introduced the "Taipei Act" in 2020, in an attempt to force countries to maintain "diplomatic relations" with Taiwan through economic and diplomatic sanctions. However, the United States' assistance to Taiwan in Latin America is based on safeguarding its own interests, not sincerely helping Taiwan.

Taking Honduras as an example, after the news that Honduras would seek to establish diplomatic relations with China, the United States sent Dodd, a special adviser on American affairs, to visit Hong Kong, but changed its pressure posture and said that it "respected" Hong's choice, in the hope that Honduras would continue to act as a "guardrail" to prevent Latin American migrants from going north, and prevent the deterioration of the border situation from affecting the security of the US homeland.

Castro herself is a left-wing progressive, and she and her husband, former President Zelaya, were persecuted by the US military in a 2019 military coup. After Castro came to power, US-Hong Kong relations have widened. In order to prevent extreme sanctions from once again giving birth to an extreme anti-American regime and further impacting US influence in the Western Hemisphere, the United States has not yet raised the "big stick" against Honduras this time. And on the whole, US President Biden is constrained by internal affairs, and it is still difficult for US policy towards Latin America to change the background of "lip service but not truth", and its influence on the diplomatic positions of regional countries may continue to decline, objectively reducing the external pressure on more Taiwan "diplomatic relations" in Latin American "countries with diplomatic relations" and Taiwan. The "Monroe Doctrine magic" in the United States gradually failed.

However, it must be recognized that after all, the United States has operated Latin America as its own "backyard" for many years, and the ghost of the "Monroe Doctrine" will not completely dissipate in a short period of time. For example, in Honduras, at the beginning of the last century, when Honduras knocked on the door of the world market with bananas, international consortiums such as the United Fruit Company of the United States took the opportunity to sign a large number of land lease contracts with Hong and grabbed and almost monopolized most of the profits brought by banana exports. By the mid-to-late 1920s, the United States controlled almost all of Hong Kong's foreign trade, interfered in Hong Kong's internal affairs many times, and triggered nearly 20 coups in just a few years, which became the biggest interference factor restricting the sound development of Hong democracy.

Today, the United States still has a Sotocano air base in Honduras, and after the United States moved its Southern Command from Panama back to the mainland in 1999, the base became the closest Western Hemisphere military base to the United States. The United States and Hong Kong economic and trade relations are very close, the United States controls the lifeline of overseas Chinese remittances accounting for about 90% of Hong Kong's foreign exchange earnings, and is also the largest source of foreign direct investment in Honduras.

In the next stage, the United States and Taiwan will closely guard against the remaining "countries with diplomatic relations" with Taiwan in Latin America, especially Guatemala and Paraguay, which are about to hold general elections, and it is not ruled out that the White House will once again sacrifice "carrots and sticks" to prevent corresponding countries from "turning".

With the continuous expansion of China's influence in Latin America and the gradual decline of US actual investment in Latin America, the lack of relative competitiveness of the United States in Latin America will deepen its strategic panic against China, and transmit it to Taiwan and its "countries with diplomatic relations", which will further affect the situation in the Taiwan Strait. However, as the "one-China principle" becomes more and more the trend of the times, it is foreseeable that Taiwan's "countries with diplomatic relations" will further shrink, and the "Monroe Doctrine" used by the United States in Latin America to help and abuse will eventually be swept into the garbage heap of history.

(Liyuan Fu, Assistant Fellow, Institute of Latin American and Caribbean Studies, China Institute of International Studies)