The NBA free agent market is always a high-risk but not necessarily rewarding race, and 2023 is no exception. We could even argue that this summer's batch of free agents may be the riskiest in history.
Age, injuries, condition, attendance... All these uncontrollable factors can turn a seemingly worthwhile contract into waste paper. Starters, star players, or even future Hall of Famers can't escape fate.
Here are six free agents to watch this offseason, all of whom have more or less problems that make the future of the free market even more confusing.
Draymond Green
It's hard to imagine Green playing for any other team other than the Warriors. Without Curry and Thompson, the two all-time top shooters, how useful would Green's cover and passing be? If joining another team requires giving up possession of the ball and dealing cards, can Green still maintain the influence of the offensive and defensive system as he did during the Warriors? Will his three-point shooting and lack of offense be a liability?
Of course, Green has a $27.59 million 2023-24 season option if he wants to, so he wouldn't have to worry about it this summer, but the changing situation doesn't allow him to be good. After the video of a punch to Poole was exposed and Poole got a 100 million yuan contract, Green's situation became very embarrassing, did the Warriors reserve space for Green to renew?
Outside of the Warriors, Green is not unwanted, such as his home team, the Detroit Pistons, which is willing to find veteran leaders for young cores, and Green is more qualified than Bojan last year. Green's agency Klutch certainly hopes that he can join the Lakers and fight alongside James and Davis, but the Lakers may not be able to offer the price Green wants.
Green, 33, has seen a slight but inconspicuous decline in athleticism, and his long-range shooting hasn't improved significantly, but it's already the best since the 2015-16 season, and his finishing efficiency at the basket over the past two years has also set a career high. What's more, Green has been one of the smartest offensive and defensive initiators in the league, and as long as his mind remains sharp and his temper is in control, Green will remain the perfect puzzle piece for a championship team for at least the next few years.
Porzingis
The risk for Porzingis is simple: he doesn't have age and decline, and the only thing to worry about is health. Boshen has played more than 60 games this season and attendance has been encouraging, but this is the first time he has played so many games since 2016-17, and no one can predict how his durability will be.
The bigger question is, do the Wizards want to pay more to keep their players? The five-year $250 million that was thrown at Beal has made the Wizards the stupidest wrongdoer in the NBA, so what should they do now in the face of Porzingis and Kuzma? Can the three of them make the Wizards rise again to become a strong team? The answer would probably be pessimistic.
To be fair, Porzingis has been very efficient this season, shooting 61.9 percent from the field from the field, a career-high percentage, and the Wizards scored 6.8 more points per 100 games when he was on the floor, and the effect was immediate. Boshin's defensive problems remain, and the interior frame is acceptable, but the lack of outside mobility and potential injury risk will make him a cash machine in the eyes of opponents at any time.
Either way, the 27-year-old Porzingis is undoubtedly a skilled and productive quality starter, even competing for the All-Star Game when playing well. But such player valuations are also the most difficult to do, Boshen now has a $36 million player option next season, maybe he can wait, the 2024 salary cap may be his real chance.
Jerami Grant
Looking back at Grant's career progression, the growth curve is amazing. During the 76ers, he was no different from the later Seibre, defensive but offensive without highlights, after transferring to the Thunder, he became the team's defensive ace and practiced conversion scoring, Grant joined the Nuggets to another level, fixed-point shooting outside the defense became more and more accurate, and the Pistons' experience as the top card made Grant enter the hall and become an all-round striker.
Now, in his final season with the Blazers, Grant has put together all the improvements he has made to play the highlight of his career. Despite a low usage rate of 22.9%, Grant's true shooting percentage was a career high of 60.6%. The Blazers are not a defensive powerhouse, but no one can question Grant's defensive ability, and he is also the core of the team's defensive first half of the year.
However, Grant, who earns $21 million a year, everyone is shouting, but what if he wants a high salary of more than $30 million? Earlier this season, Grant turned down a four-year, $112 million early contract extension from the Blazers, and it's clear that Grant's psychological price is much more than that.
Grant has certainly improved over the past few years, but it hasn't translated into an improvement in the team's performance. Today, as the second- or third-best player on a team that didn't make the playoffs, how much is Grant worth? Presumably, the pioneers themselves have quite a headache.
Dillon Brooks
Dillon's current contract expires this summer, and he could have stayed in Memphis last summer with a four-year, $61.3 million early extension, but Dillon did not reach an agreement with the Grizzlies. In an era when everyone is striving for an annual salary of 30 million, Dillon's need for a contract with an annual salary of more than 20 million is not excessive. Dillon is 27 years old, has some offense with the ball, is good enough to be named to the All-Defensive Team every year, has a pretty good attendance rate, and is the absolute spiritual leader of the Grizzlies' three-year playoff team, which doesn't seem to pose any risk.
Dillon, however, has two fatal problems. The first is his offensive efficiency, with Dillon ranking 142nd on 48.8 percent true shooting percentage of 143 players who have made at least 500 shots this season. Considering that No. 143 killian Hayes has made a full 200 fewer shots than Dillon, Dillon is undoubtedly the player who has done the most damage to the home team's offense this season.
It's clear that the Grizzlies have never been higher than No. 22 in half-court offense these seasons, and Dillon has contributed "a lot" to it. There are other ways to muddle through the regular season, but by the playoffs. In the series that lost to the Warriors in the second round in 2022, Dillon shot only 31.6% from the field, and his offensive performance was far less tough than his own mouth.
And this is Dillon's second core problem, he received the league's first 18 technical fouls this season, even Green's super mouth is 2 less than Dillon! Of course, Grizzlies usually don't care about Dillon's external provocations, but this kind of thing may be eaten back. If Dillon loses control of his emotions at a critical juncture, the Grizzlies are likely to lose a series or even a championship.
irving
If you want to find a player in the NBA who best represents "uncertainty", I am afraid that it is Irving.
The eight-time All-Star has amazing scoring skills, averaging 23.4 points per game in his career while shooting 47.2 percent, 39.2 percent and 88.4 percent from three-point range. But even the most die-hard fans have to admit that Irving's commitment and attendance on the court is completely untrustworthy, and any team that wants to pursue Irving in free agency must carefully weigh the pros and cons.
In addition to injuries and other uninterrupted absences for unknown reasons, Irving has a lot of confusion that ordinary people can't understand, and he has not played more than 60 games in any of the past four seasons, which is very worrying for a 31-year-old star in his prime.
Within 2 months of trading Irving, the Lone Ranger was in a dilemma. If they let Irving go, Doncic would doubt management's determination and means to improve the team's effectiveness. But if Irving is forcibly kept, the price to pay for the Lone Ranger is obviously very high, and even the huge risk of locking up the operating space for the next few years, and judging from Irving's past resume, he obviously does not care about the sunk cost of the Lone Ranger.
Harden
Although Harden now has a player option for the 2023-24 season, he will most likely not execute this contract that is far below market price, and will choose to become an unrestricted free agent this summer to pursue the last big contract of his career.
Since Harden arrived in Philadelphia, rumors of his possible return to the Rockets have not stopped. Of course, these seemingly well-known reports come from trusted big-name media and journalists, and cannot be compared with ordinary rumors, but their timing and rumors themselves are very strange, because at this stage, the Rockets can't give Harden anything he wants — championships and money.
All Houston can offer is the emotional and affectionate cards, but for Harden, who is now 33 years old and has changed three teams in the past three years, the championship is undoubtedly the thing he wants the most. And judging by the strength of the Rockets' roster, even if they draw Venbanyama is not enough to shake the 76ers' advantage. Now, Harden's run-in with Embiid is getting better and better, and the chemistry is getting stronger day by day, and Philadelphia is undoubtedly the closest he has come to the championship.
However, everything is also a headache for the 76ers. They have Harden's Bird clause and can offer longer years and higher overall salary than other teams, but is Harden's injury and attendance worth a full salary in the past two years? If the 76ers want a bargain, what will Harden, who already took a big salary cut last year to strengthen the team, think?