European Cup qualifiers, Bulgaria ~ Montenegro
As we mentioned before, football is not only a competitive sport, but also a combination of politics, economy, culture, history, geography, religion and belief;
Each match represents two different cultures.
I've always insisted on ~
If you simply think that "football" is just "football", you will never understand the real "football"...
If you only focus on the term "football", you will never be able to achieve a qualitative leap in the game of football...
What exactly is football?
Football is political science, economics, geographical history, religious belief, balance, psychology, thick black science, interest science...
Let's share a little bit about today's matchup against both sides.
In World War II, Nazi Germany had four major servant states:
Romania, Hungary, Finland, Bulgaria.
In both world wars, Bulgaria was a staunch supporter of Germany, mainly involved in the attack on South Slav, and later mainly in the defense of Turkey.
Later, Bulgaria saw that the situation was not right and turned to the Soviet Union; Bulgaria was the biggest winner of the German servants of World War II, not only with few losses but also in the expansion of the country, losing only 1,000 men in the entire World War II.
Once Bulgaria, there were many football stars, we are familiar with Stoichkov, Balakov, Petrov, Berbatov; In particular, Stoichkov and Berbatov, who is very close at the moment, we are all familiar.
Stoichkov, flag of Eastern European players, European footballer of the year, once-in-a-century genius; Berbatov, nicknamed "The Walking Emperor", Lafayette Ferguson snatched back the Premier League's top scorer with a private jet.
Now Bulgarian football has long ceased to shine, the domestic league is also very struggling, the integrity score of the institution is very low, and there are frequent scandals in the domestic football circle; The country's economic level is backward, the national income is very low, and the standard of living is far behind that of developed European countries.
Bulgaria's style of football is relatively hard, the technique is not delicate, the midfield organization is a weakness, the development of players in the back line has been faulty, and there has never been a good defender in history, and even now these problems have not been solved.
The Republic of Montenegro is a former Yugoslav country located in the European powder keg Balkan Peninsula, established in 2006.
In the past 100 years, Montenegro has been constantly independent, destroyed, re-established, annexed and re-established because of the weakness of the country and the nation, and even more because of religious and ethnic reasons, and the historical reasons are very complicated.
Montenegro has an interesting story ~ 16 years after the founding of the state, declared war on Japan 102 ...
Because he was the super little brother of Tsarist Russia at that time, he declared war on Japan in the Russo-Japanese War! Because of the distance of thousands of miles, Japan did not even know where Montenegro was, so it did not pay attention to it, Montenegro sent hundreds of soldiers and the whole army was destroyed, and finally Tsarist Russia was defeated in the Russo-Japanese War, and Montenegro did not withdraw the declaration of war, so it lasted until 2006.
Montenegro is the poorest country in Europe, with almost no industrial base, and the streets of the country are full of Chinese manufacturing, which is relatively friendly to us.
Montenegro has also produced some football stars, such as the historical Milanese superstar Savicevic, who is now the president of the Football Association; Vucinić, Jankovic, Jovitic, and the German field that played for China; Montenegro's overall football style is the original Yugoslav style, with strong body, delicate technique, strong impact and slow pace.
Okay, let's get into the game analysis.
World ranking 71~69, absolute peer positioning;
The most valuable historical confrontation occurred in 2019, with two draws home and away, still Bozhong;
The overall value of the two sides is 21.85 million euros ~ 63.2 million euros, and Montenegro has obvious advantages in paper basic strength;
Montenegro has an advantage in player recognition from both sides, with a relatively large number of players playing in the five major leagues; Bulgaria has only one player from the five major leagues, Werder Bremen's midfielder Gruyev, Montenegro has Heda Berlin's Jovitich, Celtic Hacksabanovic, Osmaic Ć, Lazio's Marusic and Atletico's Savage play the defensive role.
Bulgaria was fourth in the last European Championship qualifying group and did not qualify, and second in the UEFA Nations League C group; Montenegro was fifth in the last European Championship qualifying group and third in the UEFA Nations League B group.
Generally speaking, the gap between the two sides is not large, Montenegro has a slight advantage in paper strength and market positioning, but it is limited.
What really leaves a gap is the overall state of both sides!
The most recent international match between the two sides is the UEFA Nations League and two friendlies, Bulgaria has only lost one ball in the Europa League, the result is two wins, three draws and one loss, and the last two friendlies are also one win and one draw, the results and form are good;
Montenegro only doubled Romania in the Europa League, won two games, met other teams did not win, the last two friendly matches are also a draw and a loss, and the opponents are not strong, Montenegro's overall state is very average, and this "average" lasts for a long time...
Then, "the state has the advantage" and "sitting at home", the two important fundamentals can "chemically neutralize" the disadvantages of Bulgaria's players in terms of value and squad strength...
Moreover, the gap between the two sides is not large, irreversible, and the market recognition is not much different.
In fact, not professional research and judgment or ordinary players, the most important thing is ~ the current state and home field advantage, because the state is the guarantee of everything, home field is the eternal theme!
In this context, the data tie is unspeakable...
Bulgaria did not have the slightest advantage, or the rule-making side did not set up any protection for Bulgaria! This attitude is not correct enough, not nervous enough...
What needs our attention is that Bulgaria was not given any advantageous concessions, but a decimal point was used to make a clear hint ~ Bulgaria is at a low tie, which is very ambiguous!
In the judgment of a game, "returning to the low position" is very easy to arouse the goodwill of the traffic, because the "low position" seems to represent the "risk-averse attitude" of the rule side...
For example, tie 0.79 and 0.80, in fact, there is not much difference, but the market perception is different ~ 0.8 gives us the feeling, that is, "OK"; And 0.79, we blurted out "too low"...
This is a psychological game, but also a human trait!
What are human traits? Greed, suspicion, hesitation, suspiciousness, fear, selfishness, self-interest, self-interest, feeling good about yourself...
And these human traits are the "weapon of the ruler" in the process of data launch!
The current data, in the transition to a level of concession to the home team, I think it means little.
Europe is emphasizing draws, and I don't think the probability of a draw is high.
A tie that seems to have no inclination, is actually the biggest tendency!
I support Montenegro to go unbeaten and take away three points.
Thank you.