It can be said that the recent days will determine the evolution of the situation in the South China Sea, especially the 72 hours from March 22 to 24, which will determine the possible direction of China and the Philippines on the South China Sea issue. Because Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong went to the Philippines on March 22 to co-chair the 23rd China-Philippines diplomatic consultation and the seventh meeting of the China-Philippines bilateral consultation mechanism on the South China Sea issue with Philippine Vice Foreign Minister Lazaro. Apparently the talks between China and the Philippines have ended, and Philippine Deputy Foreign Secretary Lazaro promised on March 24 that the Philippines would peacefully resolve differences between China and the Philippines through diplomatic means, according to Lianhe Zaobao.
Obviously, after 72 hours, the Philippines' attitude has obviously changed, at least not like the previous crazy clamour, constantly asking the United States to speed up the implementation of the four new military bases, and even making accusations against China in the South China Sea. It can be said that since the Chinese vice foreign minister visited the Philippines for three days, he has indeed had close communication with the Philippines, and the two sides have exchanged views in many fields. Under the premise of determining mutual cooperation, it can indeed promote normal economic and trade exchanges between China and the Philippines, which is naturally of great benefit to the Philippines. However, the most core issue between China and Africa was put last, that is, the day of the 24th was the theme of the real talks between China and the Philippines.
In fact, from the last day to talk about the South China Sea issue, it is enough to see that what the Philippines is most worried about is precisely the four words "use of force in the South China Sea." The reason why the Philippines is worried about such a situation should be very clear to the Philippine side. The strength of the Philippines itself is there, and the Philippines is still going to seize China's islands and reefs in the South China Sea, and even the Philippines is wooing foreign forces such as the United States, how can this not provoke China? Especially in recent times, the Philippines has been stirring up the South China Sea and launching provocations against the mainland. In order to continue to "beach" Ren'ai Jiao on the mainland, the Philippines dispatched coast guard ships to deliver supplies to Philippine troops illegally stationed at Second Thomas Jiao.
Moreover, the Philippines has made endless calls against the mainland, and even has to win over the United States, Japan, Australia and other countries to conduct joint patrols in the South China Sea. In particular, the recent joint military exercise with the United States and the "shoulder to shoulder" joint US-Philippine military exercise held on 11 April also used Haimas rocket artillery to set up false targets in the waters near Huangyan Island on the mainland. This series of moves by the Philippines are all clear provocations, and the mainland's sovereignty over islands and reefs in the South China Sea is forcing China to take action. If the Philippines really makes these provocative moves, then no one dares to guarantee that the PLA will really get angry and really launch a military counterattack against the provocateurs in the South China Sea.
On the other hand, the Philippines should also see that the mainland has made military preparations, after all, the mainland has announced that from March 24 to April 30, the mainland navy will conduct 38 days of ultra-long military training in the South China Sea. Obviously, the mainland navy held such a long military training to make military preparations for possible emergencies in the South China Sea. From April 21 to April 28, the United States and the Philippines will hold shoulder-to-shoulder joint military exercises that may provoke sovereignty over Scarborough Shoal. Obviously, the PLA's military actions are already making military preparations for this, and the PLA has no intention of fearing the US military at all.
This also worries the Philippine side, after all, the PLA is going to conduct military exercises, but it has not moved more troops from other theaters. Obviously, with the strength of the PLA's South China Sea Fleet, it seems that the PLA is confident that it can solve the South China Sea issue. After all, the current South China Sea Fleet is not the South China Sea Fleet in 2016, and now the South China Sea Fleet has four 10,000-ton 055 large missile destroyers, and is also equipped with 075 amphibious assault ships, including a Shandong aircraft carrier that has formed combat effectiveness. It can be seen that the strength of the overall main force of the South China Sea Fleet, the strength of surface ships, is close to the strength of the joint exercise of the Grand Fleet held by China in the South China Sea in 2016. In the face of such naval power, can the Philippines rely on the United States?
Moreover, ASEAN countries are extremely dissatisfied with the Philippines, as one of the founding countries of ASEAN, this move to "lead wolves into the house" in the South China Sea has also caused dissatisfaction among other ASEAN members. As the rotating chair of ASEAN this year, Indonesia immediately expressed its hope to negotiate with China on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea as soon as possible, and the two sides reached a rule for handling affairs in the South China Sea. It can be seen that Indonesia does not want the Philippines to provoke a conflict in the South China Sea, after all, this will affect the economy and development of the entire countries bordering the South China Sea. And the latest news shows that ASEAN Secretary-General Gao Jinhong will visit China from March 24 to 29. Obviously, the outside world believes that this visit to China at such a sensitive time may be related to the South China Sea issue.
So for the Philippines, China's strength is there, and China has made a posture to fight to protect national sovereignty. At the same time, ASEAN countries do not support the Philippines' actions, which also makes the Philippines not respond in the surrounding area. At the same time, whether the US military is reliable or not, for the Philippines, there is no bottom at all, after all, it is not for nothing that the US military abandoned the Philippines. Once the Philippines really carries out a big provocation in the South China Sea and a military conflict breaks out with China, then for the Philippines, if the United States does not intervene, then the Philippines may lose badly. The Philippines will not only be unable to seize the islands and reefs controlled by China, but may even lose the eight islands and reefs it has already occupied in the South China Sea. Now the Philippines can see the ignition and is worried that China will really use force in the South China Sea, the question is why did you go to the Philippines earlier? (The picture in this article comes from the Internet)