The annual box office of the film exceeded 15 billion: the Spring Festival file contributed nearly eighty percent, and the industry layout changed

The recovery of the film industry is showing momentum. According to Lighthouse Professional Edition data, as of the press release on March 19, the box office (including pre-sales) of the 2023 large-market exceeded 15 billion yuan, with a total of 313 million tickets and 26.4774 million performances.

"The annual box office exceeded 15 billion yuan, about 2 months earlier than in 2022, and the box office is expected to reach about 15.5 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, laying a solid foundation for the recovery of the box office throughout the year." Chen Jin, a data analyst at Lighthouse Professional Edition, told the "Securities Daily" reporter, "At present, due to the improvement of the number and quality of films released in the hot schedule in the first half of the year, the competition will be very fierce, and the box office potential is also very large." ”

On the other hand, the number of supplies has increased significantly. The data shows that more than 100 movies are scheduled for February to April alone, a three-year high.

The Spring Festival file contributed nearly eighty percent of the box office

The box office revenue in 2023 will exceed 15 billion yuan, which is inseparable from the strong recovery of the Spring Festival file. Specifically, the top five films in box office revenue since the beginning of this year are all from the Spring Festival file, which are "Manjiang Red", "The Wandering Earth 2", "Bear Haunted, Bear Core", "Nameless" and "Deep Sea". As of March 19, the total box office revenue of these five films reached 11.87 billion yuan, accounting for 79% of the annual box office revenue.

Even in March, the Spring Festival movies are still online in theaters, and the long-tail effect is obvious. East Asia Qianhai Securities Research Report analysis believes that the popularity of the Spring Festival file has increased box office revenue and also driven the movie-watching boom. This year's Spring Festival is earlier than previous years, so this year's box office revenue also exceeded 15 billion yuan earlier, and the popularity of watching movies after the Spring Festival continued to be longer.

According to the statistics of Lighthouse Professional Edition, the total box office in the 30 days after the Spring Festival in 2023 will be 5.96 billion yuan, although it is still lower than the same period in 2018 and 2019, it is already the highest value in the past three years. Chen Jin, a data analyst at Lighthouse Professional Edition, believes that on the one hand, the box office contribution of the Spring Festival film is still considerable, on the other hand, the lack of a large new film in the 30 days after the Spring Festival file reflects the weak relay of the new film.

Specifically, among the new films released in February, the imported films "Black Panther 2" and "Ant-Man 3: Quantum Frenzy" failed to reproduce Marvel's market influence, with box office receipts of only 106 million yuan and 272 million yuan as of March 19; and the box office of "Chinese Table Tennis Jedi Strikes Back", which was withdrawn from the Spring Festival file to February 17, was still weak, not reaching 100 million yuan; Instead, the well-known Hong Kong film "Poisonous Tongue Lawyer" received 167 million yuan at the box office.

The supply of pending films is abundant

Since March, the weak situation of the new film has improved. On March 10, "Keep You Safe", which was mainly controlled by Ruyi Film and Television and directed by Dapeng, was released, with a weekly box office of 233 million yuan, and Maoyan Professional Edition predicted that the total box office could reach 720 million yuan, exceeding the market expectations before the film's release and setting off a boom in viewing new films after the holiday. On March 17, "Thunder: Shazam" was released, and as of 18 o'clock on March 19, it received 27.77 million yuan at the box office in 3 days of release.

In terms of new films, on March 24, the highly anticipated Japanese animated film "Suzuya Journey" will be released, and as of March 19, the pre-sale of the film has exceeded 30 million yuan, which is expected to drive the film market to further heat up in March. The film's director Makoto Shinkai's two previous works "Your Name. "Children of the Weather" won 576 million yuan and 288 million yuan respectively in China. At present, the Douban score of "Journey to the Bell Buds" is 7.9 points, and it is hoped that the bright performance of the film directed by Makoto Shinkai will continue. Another popular Japanese animated film "Slam Dunk" is also scheduled for April 20.

Competition for April's schedule was further intensified. Popular movies include Chinese films, "Space Exploration Editorial Department" produced by Guo Fan Pictures, and "Loyal Dog Bagong" produced by iQiyi Pictures and Hengye Pictures. In addition, "Dragon Horse Spirit" produced by Ali Pictures and other industries, starring Jackie Chan and "Love is Delicious" produced by Huayi Brothers also have good viewing popularity.

There are 11 movies set for May 1st. For example, two important films cooperated by Tingdong Film and Ali will be released, including "The King of the Long Sky" starring Wang Yibo and the comedy "Life is Unfamiliar" starring Qiao Shan, Fan Chengcheng and Ma Li. In addition, domestic films such as "Prosecutor Storm", "Shocking Rescue" and "Countdown to Say Love You" will also be released in the same file. And Marvel Studios' "Guardians of the Galaxy 3" is also scheduled for May 5, which will be released simultaneously with the North American market. It is reported that the film is the final chapter of the "Silver Protection" series, and whether Hollywood blockbusters can gain a foothold in the Chinese film market in 2023 depends to a large extent on the box office of this film.

East Asia Qianhai Securities Research reported that combined with sufficient high-quality content on the domestic supply side, it is expected to usher in a recovery at the box office in 2023, and production costs and production cycles are expected to be shortened, and normal creation is expected to recover. It is predicted that the box office revenue of the film market in 2023 will be 54.6 billion yuan, and the revenue recovery will reach 85.18% of the average box office level in 2019.

The industry landscape is changing

In the past three years, the film and television industry has fallen into a downturn, and the head companies have also been affected, and the industry layout has quietly changed. Especially among the traditional five major private film companies, some companies still occupy the leading position in the industry, while others have fallen into operational difficulties and even equity disputes. However, a number of "new film forces" have taken advantage of the situation to rise, such as Huanxi Media, Lianrui Pictures, Hengdian Film and Television, Ruyi Film and Television, Happy Twist Pictures, etc., have seized the box office password and repeatedly created excellent works, and the influence of the industry has increased significantly.

It is reported that Huanxi Media will shine in the circle with "Manjiang Red" in 2023, Lianrui Film has successively gained good reputation with works such as "Send You a Little Red Flower" and "Life Events", Hengdian Film and Television has participated in the production and distribution of many blockbusters such as "The Wandering Earth 2", and Ruyi Film and Television has further consolidated its position in the industry with films such as "Hello, Li Huanying" and "Walking on the Moon Alone".

In the past three years, domestic films have completed a counterattack, and box office revenue accounts for more than eighty percent of the annual box office. "The audience's viewing needs have changed, and they prefer main theme films, sci-fi films, suspense films, etc., and directors and actors such as Guo Fan, Wu Jing, Shen Teng and others have more box office appeal." A CEO of an issuance company who did not want to be named told the "Securities Daily" reporter.

"For established film companies, on the basis of further consolidating their original advantages, they should boldly explore new film genres, participate in more projects, and make good use of the advantages of listed companies to refinance to leverage more resources." The CEO of the above-mentioned distribution company said that the recovery momentum of the film industry this year is clear, and in the next two months, high-quality content will be concentrated and fixed, which is also expected to bring a new round of viewing waves, and the film parties with inventory can consider key schedules such as Qingming and May 1st, and the crew preparing for the project can also start as soon as possible, which will promote the industry to return to the right track.

Chen Jin said that the market is too dependent on the hot schedule, and the "hot and cold" situation of the general market still exists, which requires more excellent films to be released on weekdays and weekends, re-cultivating the mentality of the audience not only watching movies in the big schedule, which is also the key to the recovery of the box office to pre-epidemic throughout the year.