Kimura Cottage and Liu Wenbao's new car
Liu Wenbao and I (General Manager of Shenzhen Mucun Agricultural Development Co., Ltd.) have not seen each other for two years. His foothold in Jianshui in Yunnan has not changed, and it is still the wooden village cottage, and a million-dollar Land Rover is parked in front of the door.
"It seems that I have made money in the past two years!" I said with a smile.
Before the Spring Festival, Zhou Xiaojie (chairman of Shaanxi Hanzhi Miyu Modern Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd.) who "exchanged five acres for big running" also came to Taizhou, Zhejiang Province to pick up a Land Rover of more than two million yuan.
"I earned two Land Rovers the year before last and lost two Land Rovers last year." Liu Wenbao smiled bitterly and said, "It's equivalent to me opening for a year and returning it." ”
Liu Wenbao and his brand packaging
"Why did you lose money last year?" I was a little surprised. In the operation of "Sunshine Rose", he debuted the earliest, had the most resources, and was diligent and hard-working, so he dared to jump out of the self-reliance from his old employer, Shenzhen Sunshine Manor Agricultural Development Co., Ltd.
"You can only blame yourself for mishandling." Liu Wenbao let out a long sigh, opened the profit and loss statement on his mobile phone and handed it to me, "Last year, a total loss of more than 3.4 million yuan, of which Jianshui lost 1.417 million yuan, and Wu Xiaoping's two gardens lost more than 400,000 yuan..."
"Did Jianshui lose money on the garden?" I still remember that Liu Wenbao once boasted to me about Haikou: in the construction of water, others dare not pack the garden in advance, he dare. If it is a regular operation, it is a market change of 2 days at most, so it will not lose so much.
A vineyard in Yunnan harvests "sunshine roses"
"Yes! Last year, the weather was bad, the low temperature was not sugar, and the picking time was long, for example, I planned to finish the harvest on May 20, but it was delayed until June 20th. Liu Wenbao said.
When I arrived in Yunnan in May last year, I noticed that the situation was not good. Due to the early rainy season, the launch period of "Sunshine Rose" has been delayed again and again, and Yunnan's early maturity advantage is not much left. And Liu Wenbao's operation of chartering the garden in advance is equivalent to transferring the risk of God from the grower to himself, adding a bit of "gambling" to the component.
Not only did Bao Yuan "bet" lose, but Liu Wenbao lost even more on the "Sunshine Rose" vault last year. Due to the huge profits in the previous year's storage, a large number of fruit merchants' stocks are waiting to rise, resulting in the high price of "sunshine roses" in the northern production areas, the supply exceeds demand at the time of shipment, and the market is upside down. Although Liu Wenbao had a hunch of this risk, he still felt that it was profitable after careful calculation, so the inventory increased by three times over the previous year, reaching more than 600,000 jin.
The fruit merchant is receiving the goods into the warehouse
"The average price of my deposit was 18 yuan / jin, and it was predicted that no matter how the market fell, it could not be lower than this price, and there would definitely be a profit." But I didn't expect to have rotten fruits and bad fruits, and the loss reached 18%, and I lost this 18%. Liu Wenbao said: "Last year, as long as it was Shaanxi goods, Henan goods, Shandong goods... 99% are loss-making. ”
Zhou Xiaojie also mentioned this phenomenon to me. So far, there are still many "sunshine roses" acquired by fruit merchants last year that are still stuck in the warehouse waiting for shipment, and there are many people who have lost much more than Liu Wenbao.
"So, last year was the first year that the fruit merchant who made 'Sunshine Rose' suffered a large loss?" I care about this timeline.
"Fuji" apples that have experienced a bear market for six or seven years
Liu Zhen (chairman of Mumeituli Group Enterprise) once told me that the turning point of the northern apple industry came in 2015, when the fruit farmers made money, but the fruit merchants all lost, followed by a bear market for six or seven years, and the price of apples fell all the way, until the emergence of new varieties such as "Venus Gold", "Ruixue" and "Ruixiang Red" in the past two years brought new vitality.
"Yes! After last year's setbacks, everyone will be calm this year. Liu Wenbao said: "On the other hand, I once said, whether it is picking green or pursuing high yield, it is not us fruit merchants who pay in the end, but fruit farmers." ”
The most negative judgment about "sunshine rose" repeatedly mentioned last year suddenly came to my mind: "sunshine rose" is likely to become one of the most dazzling beginnings and worst ends in Chinese grape history. The reason is that it can achieve no upper limit on production and no bottom line in quality.
A fruitful "sunshine rose" high-yield garden
Last year, the fruit merchants experienced a large loss in inventory, on the one hand, because of their "greed"; On the other hand, it is because of the "greed" of fruit farmers, large water and fertilizer, and the pursuit of high yield. The highest output of orchards purchased by Liu Wenbao last year reached 11,000 jin per mu.
"In fact, the fruit farmer knows in his heart that the dividend period of 'Sunshine Rose' is running out, and he must try to grab this bonus period, so he must pursue high yield." Liu Wenbao said.
"What do you think of what I just said, 'sunshine rose' may become one of the most tragic varieties in the history of Chinese grapes?" Once again, I stressed my concerns.
New "Sunshine Rose" planted in 2022
"Actually, I don't think it's miserable, miserable may mean popularization." I think in another 5 years, in another 10 years, Sunshine Rose will also make money." Liu Wenbao calculated an account: "In the north, the cost of an acre of 'Sunshine Rose' is about 10,000 yuan, and the mu yields 10,000 jin, and he can save the capital even if he sells 1 yuan / jin." ”
"What if it doesn't sell?" I asked.
"How can it not be sold." Liu Wenbao said: "Supermarkets like Wal-Mart, China Resources Vanguard, Yonghui sell 9.9 yuan / jin, they sell these goods!" ”
I didn't argue, I just thought it would be wrong to analyze the future trend with the current market, no matter how much you cut it, the result is unexpected.
Liu Wenbao (3rd from right) and his procurement team
"We don't talk about the future, what are you going to do this year?" I turned to the question at hand.
"After last year's setbacks, this year I will make four optimizations to my company." Liu Wenbao introduced confidently: "First, product optimization, although it is very painful to do quality and brand in the past two years, but I still have to insist on this road..."
"Your 'Kimura' brand has been in the works for two years, have you made a premium?" I asked.
"There's no premium." Liu Wenbao shook his head and explained: "Why didn't you make a premium, and blame yourself for your compromise." At the beginning, I pursued quality, for example, I charged 20 yuan / jin and sold 100 yuan / piece in the market; He charged 15 yuan / jin, and sold 100 yuan / piece in the market, which caused me to not be able to hold on, so I have been compromising and the quality control is not ideal. ”
"Sunshine rose" with large spikes and large grains popular in the market
The most obvious indicator is that Liu Wenbao's sugar requirement for the first year of acquisition of "Sunshine Rose" was 18%, and Kimura's first year of Brix requirement was 17%, and last year even 15% of "Sunshine Rose" was picked. "For example, I want to order your goods, and say that the good sugar requirement is 15 degrees; As a result, a few days later, you ran over to me and said, 14 degrees someone wants, you don't pick it, if you don't pick it, I will sell it to him, and it is useless to have a contract! Liu Wenbao complained.
That's why I'm worried that the "Sunshine Rose" will end badly - the market is down, and there is no quality bottom line. As Liu Wenbao described, the "sunshine rose" is about to become "crisp in autumn" when planted. Don't talk about the fragrance, even the sugar content is almost gone.
"Is there a premium for goods like Wu Xiaoping?" I remembered Wu Xiaoping's "Sunshine Rose" mentioned by Liu Wenbao just now.
Four years ago, Wu Xiaoping (left) and Liu Wenbao exchanged in the vineyard
Four years ago, I had an in-depth contact with Wu Xiaoping. In my impression, he has the ingenuity to adhere to the bottom line of quality and adhere to the brand road, and will not blindly pursue high production. Liu Wenbao also mentioned that the mu yield of Wu Xiaoping's Xichang base in 2022 is only more than 4,000 jin, and the early fruits are very beautiful, but the high temperature in the later stage also causes problems such as soft fruits and dried branches.
"It used to be very premium, because it was less! Now there is no more. Liu Wenbao said matter-of-factly.
"There is no premium after more, then it involves taking the quality - can the brand stick to this road?" In the past two years, I have tasted orchards that truly reflect the excellent quality of "sunshine rose", such as Shiquan Vineyard in Jinshan, Shanghai, and Lianyu Vineyard in Yueqing, Zhejiang. But everyone who takes the wholesale market will compromise with the market like Shen Jinyue (Tongxiang Dasheng Orchard) and embark on the road of "ideal to ideal, market to market".
The price of "Sunshine Rose" at the Yulu Space store
"Must persevere!" Liu Wenbao affirmed: "There are two main aspects to make a brand premium, the first is to have a stable supply, and the second is to have stable quality." If I shout slogans all day, I want to make quality, but the goods sent out are not delicious, so how can I make a premium..."
Then, Liu Wenbao elaborated on the other three optimizations he will do this year - management optimization, service optimization and customer optimization, and he is still full of expectations and hopes for the future of "Sunshine Rose": "When I first started my business, I set a direction for myself, 3 years, alive; 5 years, breakthrough. This year is the third year, and my goal is to make a profit and earn back what I lost before. Even if I don't make money in the past three years, if I can get everyone's recognition in this industry, it will be my biggest gain for Liu Wenbao. ”
Liu Wenbao, who is still full of confidence in "Sunshine Rose"
I am actually not worried about Liu Wenbao's future, he is young, responsible, courageous, as long as the "gambling" nature is slightly converged, he can always gain a foothold in this industry. What I am worried about is that the "sunshine rose" growers or investors who have just entered the market in the past two years, high costs, excessive expectations, once they encounter sudden changes in the market...
Remember what Liu Wenbao said: it is not the fruit merchant who pays in the end, but the fruit farmer.
February 9, 2023