Interface News Reporter | Chen Zhenfang
Interface News Editor | Cha Qinjun
It is recommended to lower the age of admission to the park to 2 or 2 1/2 years old; Inclusive kindergartens set fees and financial subsidy standards according to different levels; It is recommended that the Ministry of Finance increase financial support for the construction of inclusive preschool education; Incorporate inclusive childcare services into the basic public service system.
During this year's "two sessions", many deputies and members paid attention to the dilemma of kindergartens and put forward relevant suggestions.
"I feel the (kindergarten closure tide)." Zhou Jia, president of Beijing New Oriental Mantianxing Education Consulting Co., Ltd., said in an exclusive interview with Interface Education.
"The top ten enjoy a surprise price of 1088 yuan, and you will receive a concentration class when you sign up." On February 27, a private kindergarten located on Yaojiayuan Road in Beijing's Chaoyang District advertised its admissions. Admissions teachers say there are 75 places in total, with more than a dozen unfilled.
At the same time, due to the advantages of low fees, high subsidies and stable teachers, public kindergartens are "difficult to find".
Outside the door of Tuanjiehu No. 1 Kindergarten in Chaoyang District, Beijing, a parent waiting for their children to leave school told Interface Education: "The kindergartens mentioned in the news are closed, generally Puhuiyuan or private kindergartens, there is no shortage of people in public kindergartens, you must have a Beijing household registration, and you have to queue up to enter the kindergarten." ”
On February 26, an admissions teacher from a county public kindergarten in Guizhou Province's Qiannan Prefecture told Interface Education in a telephone interview that the kindergarten she was in was full, with a total of 15 classes of 25 students per class, and did not feel the decrease in the number of students. The problem is the shortage of teachers, more than half of whom are temporary teachers.
"Last year, the proportion of private parks, the number of kindergartens and the number of people in parks were all declining, while the number of public parks and the number of people in parks were all increasing, which is the first time in history." An industry insider, who did not want to be named, told Interface Education.
The number of shutdowns reached a record high
Tianyan inspection data shows that the number of domestic enterprise names and business scopes including kindergartens and nurseries has soared by more than 204% since the turn of the millennium. In 2022, it saw its first decline in nearly a decade, with a year-on-year decline of more than 32%.
At the same time, the number of write-offs of kindergarten enterprises is climbing. From 900 in 2018 to 8,000 in 2022.
At the policy level, the 20th National Congress last year proposed that private education should be standardized and run with high quality. Zhou Jia believes that a group of non-standard and average quality kindergartens will inevitably be eliminated.
According to data from the Ministry of Education, in 2021, there were 245,000 inclusive kindergartens including inclusive kindergartens and public kindergartens, accounting for 83% of the total number of kindergartens, and more than 90% in 12 provinces. Among them, there are 128,000 public parks, accounting for more than half.
"Some local governments have discriminatory policies against private kindergartens and do not regard them as an indispensable part of the education ecosystem, and the wave of kindergarten closures is also directly related to this." On March 9, Chu Zhaohui, a researcher at China Education Science Research, told Interface Education.
The problem of early childhood education in rural areas is even more serious.
Since 2000, negative population growth has gradually spread from the county and provincial levels to the whole country. Song Jian, deputy director of the Population and Development Research Center of Chinese Minmin University, pointed out that there are great differences in the impact of birth cohort reduction on urban and rural areas, different regions, and different types of kindergartens.
On February 27, a kindergarten teacher in Xiangxi, Hunan Province, told Interface Education in a telephone interview that her kindergarten had only more than 30 children, which was only enough to open large and small classes, and there was no middle class. Mainly due to urbanization, the population has moved out of the city, and local families who have been demolished will choose to send their children to the county seat or even to the city to study.
Song Jian pointed out that after the reform and opening up, China experienced a rapid urbanization process, and from 1982 to 2020, the urbanization rate increased from 20.91% to 63.89%. In 2011, China's urbanization rate exceeded 50% for the first time, reaching 51.27%, marking the transformation of "local China" into "urban China".
This process also affects the allocation of resources for education in China.
The trend of national urbanization will lead to a sharp decrease in the number of kindergartens and the number of kindergartens in rural areas. "The proportion of rural private parks themselves will not be higher than 40%, and with the impact of urbanization, it may decline by another 10%." Zhou Jia said.
Behind the shutdown tide
Behind the wave of kindergarten closures is the grim reality of the continuous decline of newborns in China.
On January 1, 2016, China announced that it would fully liberalize the two-child policy. In 2016 and 2017, there were 18.83 million newborns in China and 17.65 million newborns respectively, the highest number of newborns after 2000. Since then, the number of new population has declined, and the number of births in 2022 has fallen below the 10 million mark for the first time.
"This will affect kindergarten enrolment in 2024-2025 and primary school enrolment in 2028-2029." By analogy, it will also affect future secondary and higher education, but with a lagging effect that varies from time to time. Song Jian pointed out in an exclusive interview with Interface Education.
Affected by the unification of the enrollment age of China's existing school system, the education population and the birth population are almost the same frequency, and if there is a large number of births in a certain year, the supply of educational resources at the corresponding level will exceed the demand after a few years. Conversely, when the birth population is small, the supply of educational resources will exceed demand.
For example, before 1998, the number of births was more than 20 million people every year, and after these newborns grew up, they encountered problems such as "graduate school fever" and "employment difficulties" in recent years.
On February 27, a teacher of a private kindergarten in Beijing told Interface Education that in the past three years, the biggest problem affecting kindergarten enrollment and operation is the epidemic rather than population decline.
Song Jian believes that "for a kindergarten, the impact of the epidemic is greater, but for the entire industry, the impact of changes in the size of the birth population cannot be ignored." ”
"The root cause of the wave of kindergarten closures is economic resources." Chu Zhaohui said to interface education.
During the epidemic, the closure of private kindergartens led to a sharp decline in income, and it was impossible to pay employees' salaries, rent, water and electricity and other operating expenses. "Inclusive kindergartens should be borne by the government, and many local governments do not provide for them, or the amount is too low." Chu Zhaohui said.
Through field investigation, Chu Zhaohui found that the addition of a degree to the Beijing ordinary public park requires about 40,000-50,000 yuan per year for full-caliber financial expenditure. The Beijing Municipal Government has given the Park a subsidy of 12,000 yuan, equivalent to 1/3-1/4 of the amount required by the public park.
According to the cost of 5,000 yuan/student/year in relatively backward areas, some local governments subsidize 200-300 yuan/student every year, accounting for only 4% of the cost.
"The support is too small, and the local government has also put forward some restrictive regulations and requirements that directly affect the normal operation of Puhuiyuan." Chu Zhaohui said.
On the afternoon of February 25, Interface Education visited the Suzhou Street Branch of Chinese Minmin University Kindergarten, as a public kindergarten, the school's fee standard in 2023 is: education and childcare fee of 900 yuan/student/month, and food fee of 30 yuan/student/day.
Beijing Municipality subsidizes the school 1.343 million yuan per month according to the subsidy standard of 1,000 yuan/student/month; in addition, Haidian District subsidizes the school 671,500 yuan per month according to 500 yuan/student/month. On the whole, the school can receive a financial subsidy of 1,500 yuan per student per month.
In comparison, the special class fee of a private kindergarten in Chaoyang District, Beijing is 4800 yuan/month + meal fee 880/month; The cost of the inclusive class is 2500 yuan/month + 880 yuan/month for meals. The other two Chaoyang International Kindergartens charge 10,000 yuan per month for international classes.
During this year's "Two Sessions", Shi Weixiong, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and executive vice chairman of the Hong Kong Federation of Fujian Community Organizations, suggested that inclusive kindergartens should be set according to different levels of fees and financial subsidy standards, so that individuals with total kindergarten income can bear the sum of tuition fees and government subsidies close to the actual cost of running kindergartens, so as to ensure the normal operation and quality of kindergartens.
Population decline is not the only reason for the wave of kindergarten closures.
On February 28, a survey report of a university obtained by Interface Education showed that private kindergartens generally believe that the top two factors affecting enrollment are population and the number of surrounding kindergartens.
"Kindergartens are 'business within a radius of three kilometers', and the regional attributes are strong." Zhou Jia said to Interface Education, but what ultimately determines the fate of a kindergarten is the quality of schooling, such as teachers, teaching, safety, etc.
Song Jian believes that although educational resource planning will affect the number and distribution of the enrollment population to a certain extent, kindergarten admission will generally adopt the idea of nearby solutions, which is not as serious as the problem of cross-district school selection in primary and secondary education.
As the industry is in the process of standardizing schooling, the closure of kindergartens has also been affected by the policy.
In 2017 and 2018, the state successively promulgated the "Opinions on the Implementation of the Third Phase of Preschool Education Action Plan" and "Several Opinions on the Deepening of Preschool Education Reform and Standardized Development", which put forward requirements for the coverage of inclusive kindergartens and the proportion of children in public kindergartens, and the entire industry carried out structural adjustments.
Since 2019, the industry has implemented the above policies more thoroughly, and many external capital has withdrawn. "Some practitioners may feel that the living environment is not as comfortable as before, and what can be obtained quickly before is not so easy now." Zhou Jia said.
In 2021, the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development and Improvement of Preschool Education" issued by the Ministry of Education proposed that by 2025, the gross enrollment rate in the first three years of school nationwide will reach more than 90%, the coverage rate of inclusive kindergartens will reach more than 85%, and the proportion of children in public kindergartens will reach more than 50%. Most for-profit kindergartens are facing a transformation and adjustment of fees.
2022 is also a key node, and the report of the 20th National Congress clearly proposed to "accelerate the construction of a high-quality education system" and "guide and standardize the development of private education".
Ways to deal with it
"From the perspective of education supply, the existing education system was established during the period of positive population growth, and it is necessary to adjust the structure and optimize the layout as soon as possible to cope with the upcoming impact of the low birth cohort." Song Jian told Interface Education.
Zhou Jia believes that the most important thing for institutions to cope with the tide of kindergarten closure is to ensure the high-level supply of kindergarten teaching and talents, and "high-quality schooling" is not a slogan, but the only way out.
Among measures to increase fertility, two types of family policies, cash subsidies and childcare services, are most frequently mentioned. In order to ensure the source of students, some European countries have achieved the integration of preschool education.
According to the "Several Policies and Measures for Relief and Support of the Elderly Care Service Industry" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in August 2022, "At present, there are about 40 million infants and young children aged 0-3 in China, and according to the survey, more than 1/3 of the families in cities have strong demand for childcare services, but the actual supply is only about 5.5%. ”
According to the report on the construction of Beijing's childcare service system, there are 1.33 childcare places for 1,000 people in Beijing, and the utilization rate of childcare places is 35.4%. There is still a gap of 70,000 to 80,000 yuan from the target of 4.5 1,000 people in 2025 proposed in the 14th Five-Year Plan.
In September 2022, the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development and Improvement of Preschool Education in Beijing" encourages kindergartens with conditions to use the available places to open kindergartens to enroll 2-3-year-old children on the basis of satisfying the admission of 3-6-year-old children.
"China's childcare services are in the early stage of exploration, but the integration of childcare is the future trend. The international mature childcare rate is about 40%, and China's is not higher than 7%, the childcare rate is very low, and there is still a long way to go. Zhou Jia told Interface Education that many families are more accustomed to the elderly with children.
High cost is also an important card point for childcare.
"Too expensive childcare is a problem that plagues many parents, and it is also an objective cause of the low fertility rate." Song Jian pointed out.
To solve the problem of childcare, the policy side is also making efforts. In 2019, the state introduced a series of childcare policies, and the government proposed in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the outline of the long-term goals for 2035 to achieve the target of 4.5 childcare places per 1,000 people by 2025.
However, in Song Jian's view, even if the above goals are achieved, it is only to meet the basic requirements of parents, and high-quality inclusive resources are still in short supply.
Improving the fertility rate is still the focus of current policies. In 2021, China has fully liberalized the three-child birth policy and given various subsidies.
With the "hollowing" of rural areas, the degree of aging has deepened, resulting in a stepwise shift in rural education, that is, children from villages and towns go to county towns, and children from small cities go to big cities.
Song Jian believes that on the one hand, it is necessary to ensure that these children have better educational opportunities in the city. On the other hand, it is necessary for local education departments to enhance population awareness, study and judge the possible impact of the population situation and the number of births in each year on all levels and types of education, so as to avoid children who remain in rural areas from dropping out of school and having difficulty in attending school, and also avoid wasting educational resources.
According to data from the Ministry of Education, from 2012 to 2021, about 80% of the new kindergartens in the country were concentrated in the central and western regions, and about 60% were distributed in rural areas. The 13 provinces with a gross enrolment rate increase of more than 30% are concentrated in the central and western provinces.
"The financial subsidy provided by local governments to Puhuiyuan is 'seed money', which can provide more high-quality educational resources and benefit more young children." Chu Zhaohui told Interface Education that local governments should appropriately provide financial subsidies to kindergartens of qualified quality to ensure their sustainability.
"With the decrease in the number of births, the number of students enrolled in school has decreased, to a certain extent, it is also an opportunity for the high-quality development of education. Degrees are more lenient, access to quality educational resources is greater, and parents really don't need to be so rolled. Song Jian said.