Since the epidemic "released", our various speculations about the epidemic have never stopped, and when the peak of the first wave of infection passes, we can really feel the "power" of the virus!
Previously, many experts predicted that a new wave of infections would be ushered in after the Spring Festival? So why do experts say that?
According to data, a total of about 2.095 billion passengers were sent during this year's Spring Festival, a year-on-year increase of 99.5% compared with previous years. Among them, visiting relatives, tourist flow has risen sharply, and visiting relatives, tourism, etc. are indispensable frequent personnel contact, which undoubtedly creates conditions for the further spread of the virus, coupled with the long incubation period of the virus itself, strong insidious and highly contagious characteristics, etc., these factors have added a lot of uncertainty to the further development of the epidemic! Because of this, many experts predict that a new wave of infections will be ushered in after the Spring Festival!
In addition, the frequent mutation of the new coronavirus also increases the possibility of our reinfection! Due to the peculiarities of the structure of the new coronavirus, it is easy to mutate in the process of transmission.
According to research, since the outbreak of the new crown virus, the number of mutations has reached thousands of people, experienced the first wave of infection peak, we have only infected one of the strains, the resulting immunity is only effective against this variant strain, but not against other strains. With the large flow of people during the Spring Festival, it is bound to further aggravate the speed of virus transmission, in this case, the new crown virus is prone to mutation, so experts will say that there will be a new wave of virus infection after the Spring Festival!
But until now, after the Spring Festival, more than 40 days have passed. What experts call the "new wave of infection peaks after the Spring Festival" has still not appeared! Could it be that the experts' predictions were wrong again?
At this time, experts said that the second wave of infection will be in March, so what is the basis for experts to say this?
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We all know that the country was fully released on December 7 last year, and the first wave of infection peaked in China on December 20 last year, if the antibody produced is calculated according to the shortest maintenance of three months, by March 20 this year, the antibodies produced by the first wave of infection peak have basically been consumed, because of this, experts will say that March will usher in the peak of infection again!
From the peak of infection after the Spring Festival to the peak of infection in March, the words of experts seem to have become "one trust and one trust", why are the experts' predictions more and more inaccurate? To answer this question, let's first understand what is "forecasting"?
The so-called "forecasting" refers to an activity in which people use the knowledge and means they already have to predict and judge the future development of things in advance. Specifically, it is the scientific speculation that people make scientific speculation on the possible future trends and possible levels of things according to the objective process and certain laws of the past development and change, according to the current state of movement and change of things, and using various qualitative and quantitative analysis methods.
As you see, the first point emphasized by "forecasting" is "using the knowledge and means already mastered", that is, "forecasting" is not unfounded, it is the use of the knowledge and means already mastered to speculate on an event, take the current epidemic, experts must have more professional knowledge than ordinary people, although their predictions seem "inaccurate", but the development and change of the epidemic is too affected by surrounding factors? For example, the time of our first wave of infection is different, the length of time we produce protective antibodies after infection is different, our physical fitness is different, the environment we live in is in contact with different people, how the virus develops, how it mutates, etc., so many uncertainties have brought great challenges to "epidemic prediction"!
While experts say the second wave of infections has yet to peak, their predictions are a wake-up call! Because the virus has not been eliminated, it has been mutating and accumulating in the dark, and with the full opening of the country, new mutant strains will appear superimposed, which poses higher challenges for the future road to fight the epidemic! To ask when the peak of the second wave of infection will come, in the editor's opinion, it is possible that every day in the next will appear at any time! After all, the virus has not been eliminated, it is still lurking around us all the time, and it will invade in a new posture at any time, so it is still necessary to protect now!