February 1, 2023 issue | Issue 3134
Editor's note
Yesterday, there was good news from the film market, the final box office in January 2023 reached 10.087 billion yuan, the fifth time in the history of the market in a single month exceeded the 10 billion mark, which is the first time that the mainland market has achieved this achievement outside of February. The mainland market broke through 10 billion yuan at the fastest speed in history, a full 10 days earlier than last year, which is certainly due to the early arrival of this year's Spring Festival, but it also shows the rapid recovery of the film market, which has been dismal for a long time. How to achieve the results, long-term and near-term worries, we invited professionals in distribution, production and publicity to conduct in-depth analysis.
The 2023 Spring Festival is destined to be extraordinary.
This is the first Spring Festival file after the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control measures, and it ranks second in film history with a box office of 6.7 billion yuan. This dazzling achievement shows that the movie is still there, and so are the audience.
This year's Spring Festival also brings questions and thoughts. Why was the box office of "The Wandering Earth 2", which invested in a huge scale, surpassed by "Manjiang Red"? There are endless controversies from fans and fans, how should film producers respond?
"Chinese Table Tennis" moved to February, what are the chances of winning the new schedule? How can sports films be effectively developed in the face of an uncertain creative environment?
Film and television monologue recently connected with film market expert Gao Jun, Aimei Film and Television CEO Li Yaping, and film industry world CEO An Yugang. The three industry insiders cut into the Spring Festival file from the perspective of creation and marketing, analyzed the characteristics of the schedule, and looked forward to the development trend of the industry.
Film and television monologue: The total box office results of the Spring Festival file, as well as the attribution of the champion and runner-up, do you meet your pre-holiday predictions?
Gao Jun: The performance of this year's Spring Festival is basically consistent with my previous prediction, slightly higher than last year, but still far lower than the year before.
Before the festival, I predicted that if "The Wandering Earth 2" can surpass the artistic level of the first part, it may still be able to form a certain suppression of "Manjiang Red". Looking at it now, "The Wandering Earth 2" can be regarded as a tie with the first part, which gives "Manjiang Red" the opportunity to catch up.
This year's Spring Festival box office revenue was 6.7 billion yuan, which is the second highest result in the Spring Festival file in previous years. According to my analysis, there are two bases for achieving this achievement. The first point is that the audience has accepted the ticket price of the Spring Festival stall, and the average ticket price of this year's Spring Festival stall is 52.3 yuan, which is basically the same as last year, but there is no fare dispute like last year. Second, the attendance rate of this year's Spring Festival stall soared, with an average of 48.5 people per game, an increase of 12 people year-on-year. These two points are the guarantee of the high-ticket real estate of the Spring Festival.
In the epidemic era, two films benefited the most at the box office. One is "Eight Hundred", and the other is "Manjiang Hong". The release of the two films caught up with the audience's retaliatory consumption node and really detonated the market.
Li Yaping: I have no prediction of the box office of "Manjiang Red" and "The Wandering Earth 2", and I think that the appeal of these two films in the market is equal.
Li Yaping
I'm more concerned about the market performance of Swap Life. Because comedy is the main genre of Aimei film and television in recent years. So want to see how explosive this genre will be in the market.
I bought a ticket to watch "Manjiang Red" on the second day of the Lunar New Year, and the theater of more than 200 people was full. "Manjiang Hong" is a suspense comedy, the film is under the control of director Zhang Yimou, and the comedy elements serve the plot and characters.
"Manjiang Hong" is certainly not the same as the twist comedy, but the audience can appreciate the humorous expression of the creator. As soon as Shen Teng appeared, his smile could trigger laughter from the audience. The film brings together a lot of comedians, and the audience next to me can quickly recognize Zhang Chi (an annual comedy contestant). The audience knows comedians of different genres very well, which shows that the genre of comedy is very deeply rooted in people's hearts.
The performance of "Manjiang Red" and "The Wandering Earth 2" is too strong, and there is no room for the Spring Festival file to run out of the dark horse. However, these two head films have driven the popularity of the entire market, and the revenue of other films is also rising.
An Yugang: The biggest feeling I have during the Spring Festival this year is the surprise. On the fifth day of the Lunar New Year, the box office of the Spring Festival exceeded 6 billion yuan on that day. I posted a circle of friends at that time, writing: "There was still a trace of hidden worries a few years ago, and I always felt that the wallets of ordinary audiences were a little embarrassing, so I felt that there was still an unknown number at the Spring Festival box office, but I didn't expect that the fifth day of the first year was such a big explosion, which is really happy!" ”
This time, the Spring Festival file is like a full house, from sci-fi films to comedies, spy movies, and cartoons, providing the audience with diversified viewing options. The number of moviegoers in this year's Spring Festival stall was 129 million, an increase of 15 million over the same period last year, which shows that the audience has not forgotten the entertainment method of movies.
Film and television monologue: During the Spring Festival, some films caused a war of words between fans, what do you think of this phenomenon?
Gao Jun: I think it's better for the film producers to tolerate some controversial voices outside the venue. Filmmakers still focus on their works and strive to make the next film well.
Gao Jun
Li Yaping: Whether it is the film I made encounters black water after it is released, or other films in the same schedule have this experience, everyone will definitely be uncomfortable, so neither the film team nor the publicity team should encourage this behavior. Even if it is the personal behavior of some fans, the film side should try its best to channel and release these negative emotions. Fans' excessive maintenance of a film can sometimes be counterproductive to the film's favorability and hurt the creator's emotions.
An Yugang: Movies are products, and it is not easy to pry a large audience to buy this product. Filmmakers should cherish the current market environment, and the publicity team strives to find audiences who like this product, rather than wasting energy on people who attack you.
An Yugang
According to data from Maoyan APP, 86% of the audience in this year's Spring Festival only watched one movie. This shows that the audience's repurchase rate is very low, and filmmakers should unite together and strive to let the audience watch one more movie during the schedule. The number of moviegoers has increased, and the box office cake has become larger, which is what everyone is happy about.
Film and television monologue: "Chinese Table Tennis" was originally scheduled to be released on the first day of the new year, but it was postponed to the third day of the new year due to content modifications. The film's release date was only delayed by two days, why is the box office performance so sluggish? Moved to February 17, can the film change the fate of the box office?
Gao Jun: On the third day of the Lunar New Year, "The Wandering Earth 2" and "Manjiang Red" accounted for more than 70% of the box office in the market. These two films have almost occupied the market space, and other films will be affected. "Bear Haunted, Accompany Me "Bear Core" because the target audience group is children, and the two strong films have played a differentiated position, holding the box office position.
The choice of "Chinese Table Tennis" to be released in the third year of junior high school was a serious mistake. The quality of the film is not bad, but it faces a market environment with a narrow runway, so it did not achieve a box office breakthrough.
The film's misalignment is another mistake. The new schedule on February 17 will directly face the Marvel movie "Ant-Man 3", which will definitely be affected. Moreover, Spring Festival films will still be active in the market, and "Chinese Table Tennis" still has to face old rivals such as "Manjiang Hong". If I change the file, I will definitely stay away from the Spring Festival film.
Li Yaping: "Chinese Table Tennis" emphasizes the sense of national honor, which is similar to "The Wandering Earth 2". "The Wandering Earth 2" will cover the emotional resonance brought to the audience by "Chinese Table Tennis", so these two films are not suitable for one schedule.
As a producer, I can empathize with the filmmakers. Every filmmaker wants their film to have a good market return.
From the perspective of the film side, the schedule choice of each film is soul torture. The film side needs to consider the competitiveness of the film in the same schedule, as well as its own box office expectations.
The film industry is brutal, and it can take years for a film to create a film, but it can make or break a day or two after the film is released. In terms of film, the choice of schedule must be careful and walk on thin ice. But at the same time, the film side must have a certain sense of adventure, and even need some luck, which is really too difficult.
An Yugang: I just mentioned that more than eighty percent of the audience in the Spring Festival will only choose one movie to watch. Therefore, when "Chinese Table Tennis" was released in the third year of junior high school, the box office space faced was too small.
The consideration of the film change should consider the schedule capacity at that time and whether the film is on a commanding height. Then, the film side also has to consider whether the content mood of the work matches the mood of the audience in the schedule.
Film and television monologue: "Chinese Table Tennis" is not alone. The previous "Winning the Championship", formerly known as "Chinese Women's Volleyball", has undergone major modifications. The sports biopic "Li Na" has long been completed, but now there is no news. What kind of production direction should domestic sports films choose in the future?
Gao Jun: Sports films can be done, but we must deal with the issue of licensing. The content of the film involves real people and real things, and without the approval of my own person, or even the approval of my family, it is extremely risky to do it. Assuming that the content of the film is completely fictional, it is indeed possible to avoid risks. But making fictional sports films in China, no one will watch them.
In the previous movie "Winning the Championship", the creators also aimed at the glorious history of the Chinese women's volleyball team winning five consecutive championships. Without real history as a basis for creation, such a film will not be good. When doing sports in China, you must plan ahead and deal with all the problems you can think of in advance.
Li Yaping: In the past, sports films with a good response in the domestic market were basically adapted from real people and real events. Sports films carry a sense of national pride, and the film records the moment when champions won honor for the country, and it is also the collective memory of the people. "Chinese Table Tennis" obviously contains these elements, and the content and appearance of the film are no problem.
Our company is currently working on a feature film that incorporates both sports and comedy elements. We don't want to highlight the sports genre, although this is a movie about basketball, but its core is to focus on people and people's emotional relationships.
If the market pattern of a genre film is to be opened, excellent works need to continue to appear. For example, "33 Days of Broken Love" has led to a fire to romance films, "The Wandering Earth" has driven sci-fi films, and the industry has collectively made efforts to make a film genre mature. Sports films still need to be produced in order to change the perception of the genre among audiences and investors.
An Yugang: Sports films can indeed be done, but don't do sports realist films, which are easy to involve the issue of authorization. Creations should focus on emotional shaping, such as "Wrestle!" which was popular in the Chinese market! Dad", the place where this film touches the audience is definitely not the competition scene, but the emotions of the two generations of father and daughter.
Sports competition is only an outer packaging of the film, and the relationship between the characters brought out in sports is the core. The emotional elements depicted in the film of the fathers' harsh education of their daughters and their expectations moved the Chinese audience. Therefore, I think sports films should focus on the emotional level.
Film and television monologue: "Nameless" and "Deep Sea" two films have attracted much attention before the Spring Festival, the former was far ahead at the box office in the pre-sale stage, and the latter is the new work of "Journey to the West: The Return of the Great Sage" director Tian Xiaopeng. After the start of the Spring Festival, the two films did not have a box office hit, what do you think of this?
Gao Jun: This year's Spring Festival stall is too special, and in previous years, there will always be one or two seeded players who have dropped their chains. Once the head film does not perform well, the box office dark horse will wait for the opportunity.
This year's Spring Festival file's two seeded players "Manjiang Red" and "The Wandering Earth 2" did not drop the chain, and the trend was particularly fierce, so it caused obstacles to the box office power of "Nameless" and "Deep Sea". For example, if "This Killer Is Not Too Calm" is released this year, it will be difficult to get a surprise box office of 2.6 billion yuan.
Li Yaping: "Deep Sea" and "Nameless" are different from other films' genres during the Spring Festival. "Nameless" is fan-oriented and fan-oriented, and "Deep Sea" is a national tide anime style, and they are both sought after by different audiences. If the two films can ensure stable scheduling after the holiday, then there is hope to achieve a long-term trend at the box office.
An Yugang: The box office trend of "Deep Sea" and "Nameless" in the post-Spring Festival file is very stable, and at present, "Deep Sea" has exceeded 500 million yuan, and "Nameless" has earned 600 million yuan. The predicted box office of the two films on the Maoyan Professional version APP has also been adjusted to more than 800 million yuan, and on the whole, such market performance is good.
The good trend of "Deep Sea" and "Nameless" shows that Chinese audiences are becoming more and more mature. The types of films in the Spring Festival file are diverse, and the audience can like "The Wandering Earth 2", or "Deep Sea" and "Nameless". It's a very good state of the market and hopefully it will be maintained.
Film and television monologue: After the Spring Festival, Chinese and foreign films such as "When the Wind Rises" and "Ant-Man 3" will be released in the mainland market. What are the box office prospects for these films? Will there be more commercial films in the future?
Gao Jun: The new films to be screened after the Spring Festival, such as "When the Wind Rises Again", "Ant-Man 3" and "Chinese Table Tennis", are not good overall. Therefore, I expect the box office popularity of "Manjiang Red" and "The Wandering Earth 2" to continue until the end of February.
The Spring Festival file has formed an obvious depression effect, and the box office before and after the schedule is tilted towards this depression. At present, the box office of "Manjiang Hong" and "The Wandering Earth 2" are each around 3 billion yuan, but the two films still have a lot of room for box office growth, and the new films to be released in the future will be affected.
An Yugang: What we see in the Spring Festival is only domestic films, imported films have begun to be released in February, and the next market is a combination of Chinese and Western trends. Hollywood is a super blockbuster this year, so the market performance in the coming year is worth looking forward to.
"Ant-Man 3"
Li Yaping: I didn't know much about the film's advance, and most of the schedule news was also learned from the news. In the past three years, the film industry has become a "special hardship industry". Not only has the investment market cooled in the past few years, but there are only a handful of companies in the industry that have the cash capacity.
This year's Spring Festival has restored market confidence in the industry. We film colleagues should seize this opportunity to do more good works and promote the accelerated recovery of the industry.
Film and television monologue: The epidemic is leaving us, has the film industry entered the mode of accelerating the resumption of work since the Spring Festival? The lack of new film screening in April last year, is it a complete goodbye this year?
Li Yaping: In 2022, our company made three films. During the filming period of epidemic prevention and control, a crew should reserve an epidemic prevention budget of about 1 million yuan to avoid infection to the greatest extent. This situation should not be repeated this year, which is a very obvious improvement.
Judging from the consideration of film reserves in the past three years and the positive signals released by the Spring Festival market, the embarrassing phenomenon of new films in the film market will no longer exist.
But I think filmmakers still need to establish a sense of crisis. The successful new films in the Spring Festival market are all films that have been completed by peers in the past three years, but they will be released in this year's Spring Festival. The success of the film stems from the forward-looking artistic creation and adherence to production quality.
Subsequent film works should feel a competitive pressure, and the audience's aesthetic pursuit of the film is constantly improving. Therefore, I believe that the film industry should not unilaterally stimulate production, and film producers should check whether their inventory is good enough. I will definitely keep reviewing the project I have in hand and wonder if it could be better. Overall, I think the film industry can really slow down in 2023.
An Yugang: In the three years of the epidemic, all aspects of the film industry have suffered heavy losses, and the upstream, middle and downstream of the industrial chain have to face different dilemmas. After the adjustment of epidemic prevention and control measures this year, I hope that the entire industry will return to a normal development state as soon as possible.
Gao Jun: Speaking of the production of films, it is expected that many films will be launched one after another after the Spring Festival. The film industry has not yet fully recovered from the effects of the pandemic, which requires a recovery cycle. I personally believe that 2023 is the recovery phase of the entire industry. It will not be until 2024 that the production of Chinese films can be on track.
【Text/Cui Ting】