【Introduction】Spring Festival is imminent, in the domestic pig market, the rhythm of the pig enterprise before the festival of the breeding end group is gradually weakening, the slaughterhouse will also enter the cycle of shutdown and holiday, the market long and short game intensifies, recently, pig prices show "3 consecutive rise" performance, pig prices "high", the market at the end of the year is strongly pulled, then, what is the logic of this round of pig price rise? During the Spring Festival holiday, how is the market trend? Today we will analyze it in detail!
It is understood that from the institutional quotation shows that by the slaughtering enterprise price adjustment pig, on January 19, the pig price showed a strong fluctuation trend, the single-day rise hovered around 0.1 yuan / kg, the average pig price remained at about 15.22 yuan / kg, the market showed a narrow adjustment change!
Among them, in the domestic market, the northern region, the pig price shock is weak, the northeast and north China, most of the pig prices stabilized, the local narrow decline, the Heijiliao market hovered around 6.7 ~ 7.5 yuan / jin, the North China market hovered at 7.3 ~ 8.5 yuan / jin. In most of East China, pig prices show a trend of weak volatility, Shandong market 7.5 ~ 8.1 yuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang 7.9 ~ 8.5 yuan / jin, while in central China and South China, pig prices fluctuate strongly, Henan market stabilized 7.4 ~ 8.5 yuan, Hunan hovered at 7.3 ~ 7.9 yuan / jin, in South China, the two Guangzhou markets rose to 7.4 ~ 7.7 yuan / jin, southwest region, Sichuan-Chongqing market 7.2 ~ 7.6 yuan / jin!
At present, pig prices continue to fluctuate strongly, pig prices show 3 consecutive rises, at the end of the year, pig prices "high", the market center of gravity volatility is strong!
This round of pig prices against the trend of strengthening, personally believe, on the one hand, the slaughterhouse stop is imminent, the domestic sample slaughterhouse operating rate remains at about 41%, although the slaughtering enterprise operating rate is gradually declining, but the average daily slaughter volume is still more significant, the demand for pigs is more vigorous, superimposed, some slaughtering enterprises still have the performance of bargain hunting, the market gross white price spread is gradually improving, the profitability of slaughtering enterprises is improved, and the enthusiasm for price increases is high; On the other hand, the domestic mainstream scale pig enterprises have completed the pre-holiday slaughter plan, the external transfer of pigs has been greatly reduced, some retail pig farms have been suspended by traders, the difficulty of slaughtering has increased, the supply of pigs has shrunk significantly, and the market supply pressure has increased sharply!
Therefore, under the phased market long-short game, pig prices are mainly volatile, and the price center of gravity is gradually moving up, but, rationally, as the Spring Festival date approaches, logistics are suspended one after another, and the pig market gradually enters the stage of "priceless without market", only some small and medium-sized slaughterhouses are mainly local pig source procurement, and it is more difficult for slaughtering enterprises to collect pigs, I personally believe that before the holiday and during the Spring Festival, pig quotations are mainly stable and strong, but the rise is limited, and the market quotation lacks guiding significance, after all, most of the domestic north and south, Hog purchases and sales are basically stagnant!
For the post-holiday market, analysts have different opinions, but, rationally, the market after the year "supply and sales double decline", the pressure of pigs out of the slaughter weakened, the consumer market inertia declined, however, because some breeding end of the pre-holiday pigs are difficult to smoothly out of the slaughter, the post-holiday market still has supply pressure, by the pre-holiday and Spring Festival, pig prices are stable and strong, post-holiday market breeding end panic selling increased, personally believe that the post-holiday market is dominated by inertia decline, pig prices will gradually fall to about 14 ~ 15 yuan / kg!
With the decline of pig prices, the pig food ratio has further declined, the official pork storage has been restarted, the slaughterhouse has continued to bottom, the bottom of the pig price has gradually emerged, and the price is expected to fall back, but due to February ~ March, the market pork demand increment is limited, it is expected that the pig price rebound range deviation, the breeding end will still be in the stage of cyclical slaughter loss!
3 consecutive gains! Pig prices are "rising", what is the logic of rising? January 19th pig price! What do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion!