Yesterday was a small year in the south, hope for peace!
An explosion at a chemical plant in Liaoning Province caused many employees to be missing, and officials reported it
At 13:25 on January 15, 2023, the alkylation unit of Panshan County Haoye Chemical Company in Panjin City, Liaoning Province, exploded during the maintenance process and caused a fire. After the accident, the city and county levels quickly activated the emergency plan and carried out on-site emergency handling and rescue work. At present, the cause of the accident and the treatment of personnel are in progress.
Previously, according to CCTV news reports, on January 15, a chemical plant in Panjinpanshan County, Panjin, Liaoning Province caught fire and exploded, and the scene of the accident was filled with smoke.
According to the Beijing News, Zhang Hui, deputy general manager of Haoye Chemical in charge of safety, said that before the incident, the company was in normal production, and an alkylation device pipeline leaked and caught fire. As of 17 o'clock yesterday, because some chemical raw material pipelines could not be closed, the fire was still burning, 3 people had been rescued, and four or five workers were initially found to be missing.
A Nepalese airliner crashed, killing 68 people
According to Nepalese media reports, on the morning of January 15, local time, an ATR-72 passenger plane of Nepal Snowman Airlines flying from the capital Kathmandu to the tourist city of Pokhara crashed between the old and new airports of Pokhara. A total of 72 people were on board the crashed airliner, including 68 passengers and 4 crew members.
At about 20:30 local time on January 15, Nepal Snowman Airlines issued the fifth edition of the press bulletin on the air crash on that day, adjusting the number of victims, saying that the airline crashed on the 15th numbered 9N-ANC flight 68 dead remains have been found.
A spokesman for Nepal Yeti Airlines said there were 15 foreign passengers on YT691 that crashed in Pokhara, Nepal, including five Indians, four Russians and two South Koreans. There were also 4 passengers from Argentina, Australia, France and Ireland.
According to media reports, the crashed airliner was 15 years old and the model was ATR72. The model is manufactured by ATR Aircraft Manufacturing, a joint venture between France and Italy. The ATR72 has a maximum passenger capacity of more than 70 people. The Snowman Airlines to which the aircraft involved belonged had 6 ATR72-related passenger aircraft. Historically, this aircraft has suffered many air crashes.
The National Development and Reform Commission interviewed about iron ore information enterprises
According to the "National Development and Reform Commission" WeChat public account yesterday, recently, some iron ore information companies have reprinted false old news, confused the public, and caused adverse effects on the market. The Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission interviewed relevant information enterprises as soon as possible, reminding them that relevant enterprises must carefully verify and ensure accuracy before releasing market and price information, and must not fabricate and publish false information, must not fabricate and disseminate price increase information, and must not bid up prices.
The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to pay close attention to the iron ore market and price changes, and work with relevant departments to further study and take measures to severely crack down on violations of laws and regulations such as fabricating and disseminating price increase information, hoarding, and price gouging, so as to effectively ensure the smooth operation of the iron ore market.
The agency expects that domestic iron ore will be "supply and demand" this year
Tu Weihua, a researcher at the black department of Baocheng Futures, believes that there are two main reasons supporting the rise in iron ore prices in this round: First, the domestic macroeconomy is expected to be good. The market expects the Fed to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, and foreign iron ore prices will be the first to stop falling and rise; Domestic real estate-related policies have been introduced one after another, and relevant departments have deployed to resolve the risks of high-quality head real estate enterprises, supporting the current strong operation of black prices. Second, molten iron is expected to pick up after the Spring Festival. At present, the average daily output of molten iron in sample steel mills has remained around 2.2 million tons for a long time, and according to the seasonal law of previous years, the resumption of steel mill production after the Spring Festival will push up molten iron production, forming a certain benefit.
But it should also be noted that with the above positive signals have been "cashed" in the market, iron ore prices may have entered a stage top. With the increase of national regulation and control, and the raw material inventory of steel mills has risen to a high level, the pre-holiday replenishment is coming to an end. "The supply side of iron ore is relatively stable, the proportion of mainstream miners to China is recovering, and the subsequent arrival volume of Australia and Pakistan will bottom out according to the shipping schedule." Tu Weihua said.
Liang Haikuan, iron ore analyst at Founder medium-term futures, also believes that the previous black upward drive from the improvement of macro expectations and the marginal demand of the real estate end may be good, the current market has fully reflected expectations, and the short-term continued upside is limited. Relevant institutions predict that this year's domestic iron ore market will show a pattern of "supply and demand", and there is an expectation of accumulation in the second half of the year. On the supply side, mainstream mine shipments will be relatively stable and have a certain increase in production. At the same time, there are recession expectations in major foreign economies, and foreign iron ore demand may decline, resulting in iron ore flowing from foreign steel mills to China, which is helpful for the improvement of iron ore supply and demand. On the demand side, it is estimated that the output of crude steel and pig iron this year is basically the same as last year, and the supply and demand side is expected to improve.
Soda ash "three highs and one low", glass "three lows and one high", what is the mystery behind it?
Recently, glass and soda ash have attracted much market attention. According to the reporter of Futures Daily, although glass and soda ash belong to the same industrial chain, the characteristics of the current spot market of the two are completely different, the soda ash market presents the characteristics of "three highs and one low", and the glass market presents the characteristics of "three lows and one high".
"The soda ash spot market has long faced a pattern of high starts, high profits, low inventory and strong demand." Zhang Linglu, senior analyst of Everbright Futures Resource Products, said that the high start is reflected in the long-term high operation of the industry operating at a year-on-year high level. From January to December 2022, the average monthly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 85.26%, an increase of 7% over the same period in 2021. In addition, the annual operating rate remained the highest or second highest in recent years, except for seasonal maintenance from the end of the second quarter to the third quarter. Since 2023, the operating rate of the soda ash industry has maintained a high level of more than 90% for a long time, and as of January 12, the weekly operating rate of the domestic soda ash industry has been 91.14%, 8.76 percentage points higher than the same period last year.
Zhang Linglu said that the current profit is still at a high level, and although the industry profit fluctuates in 2022, it is generally high, which is also one of the main drivers for the overall high production level of the soda ash industry in 2022. As of January 12, the profit of domestic ammonia alkali enterprises was 910 yuan / ton, and the profits of alkali enterprises increased by 96% and 77% respectively year-on-year.
Low inventory is the norm since the second half of 2022, which also changes the previous seasonal change law of soda ash enterprises. At the beginning of 2022, although soda ash enterprises continued the ultra-high inventory level at the end of 2021, the inventory of soda ash enterprises continued to decline throughout the year, and after mid-April, the accelerated decline mode was opened, and the inventory of enterprises in the second half of the year was in a low range for a long time, even if there was a phased accumulation from July to early August, but the range was relatively limited. As of January 12, the total inventory of soda ash enterprises was 270,400 tons, down 85.15% year-on-year, and the inventory of light alkali and heavy alkali enterprises decreased by 82.16% and 87.40% year-on-year, respectively.
The strong demand pattern is another major feature of soda ash spot in 2022, which is not only reflected in the continuous improvement of the level of rigid demand, but also in the strong export. In 2022, the apparent consumption of soda ash is at a year-on-year high level, especially in the first half of the year, and most of the timetable consumption is at the highest level in recent years. From January to November 2022, the apparent consumption of domestic soda ash was 26.5309 million tons, an increase of 2.34% year-on-year. In addition, the apparent consumption of soda ash from January to November 2022 was only 225,000 tons lower than the output in the same period, and the monthly apparent consumption in the first half of 2022 was basically higher than the monthly output of soda ash, and the high consumption operation mainly depended on factors such as the cold repair of the float glass production line was not as expected, the continuous ignition of photovoltaic glass, and the high level of exports.
"Since 2022, the number of soda ash exports in mainland China has increased month by month, and the monthly export volume has climbed from the lowest level in ten years at the beginning of the year to the highest level in ten years, in only 5 months, and the following months have also maintained a high export volume. From January to November 2022, the mainland's soda ash exports were 1.8649 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 165%. Zhang Linglu believes that the substantial increase in the number of mainland soda ash exports is mainly affected by various factors such as the increase in energy prices in the international market, the reduction of global soda ash production capacity, and the global soda ash cost and price push, which directly or indirectly enhance the competitiveness and market share of mainland soda ash in the international market.
Zhang Linglu analyzed that due to the continued malaise of terminal real estate and the low peak season, the number of cold repair of float glass has been increasing since the second half of 2022, and as of the end of December last year, the daily melting capacity of domestic float glass was 161,840 tons, down 13,000 tons or 7.4% from the end of 2021. At the same time, the ignition of the new production line of photovoltaic glass throughout the year led to a net increase of 34,600 tons in the daily melting capacity of the industry, with an annual increase of 83.90%, and the increase was much greater than the lack of cold repair of the float glass production line, which comprehensively increased the consumption level of soda ash.
Chen Qiusha, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, said that from the perspective of the soda ash-glass industry chain, the profits of the industrial chain in 2022 will be mainly concentrated in the upstream raw material end, while the price difference between soda ash and glass will further widen. From the perspective of soda ash products, because of the decline in effective production capacity, the demand for soda ash continues to grow, the supply of soda ash will be tighter in 2022, and the industry inventory will continue to decline. In 2022, the price fluctuation range of soda ash will narrow, the price of heavy alkali will be 2400-3100 yuan / ton, the average price of heavy alkali will be 2828 yuan / ton, the average price is at a historical high, the proportion of heavy alkali production will be further increased, and the proportion of domestic heavy alkali production will reach 53% in 2022.
Where did the soda ash go?
Since entering 2023, soda ash enterprises have once again entered the destocking state. As of January 12, the inventory of soda ash enterprises has declined for two consecutive weeks, with weekly declines of 10.25% and 8.62% respectively, and the total inventory of enterprises is 270,400 tons, down 18% from the end of December and 85.15% from the same period in 2022. Light alkali stocks were 139,600 tons, down 11.37% from the end of December and 82.16% from the same period in 2022; heavy alkali stocks were 130,800 tons, down 24.04% from the end of December and 87.4% from the same period in 2022.
Zhang Linglu told reporters that the soda ash social link inventory will be in the destocking channel in the second half of 2022, and the absolute value of the current inventory is less than 50,000 tons. As of December last year, the number of raw soda ash inventory days of domestic sample float glass enterprises was only 20.1 days, down 16.4 days, or 44.93%, from 36.5 days in January 2022. Zhang Linglu believes that the decline in the number of days of downstream float glass raw material inventory, on the one hand, is due to the market's expectation of strengthening the production of the first phase of Yuanxing and the expectation of the downward price in the later period, so the current initiative to reduce the raw material inventory is waiting for the purchase of natural alkali sources at low prices in the later stage; On the other hand, the phenomenon of tight supply of soda ash has existed for a long time, and the replenishment progress of some float glass raw materials may be affected to a certain extent.
"The long-term low level of soda ash stocks is mainly due to the mismatch between the growth rate of supply and demand and the long-term tight supply of market supplies." Zhang Linglu said that the annual soda ash production in 2022 will be 29.44 million tons, a year-on-year increase of only 1.79%, while the apparent consumption of soda ash in 2022 (December is the expected data) may reach 28.96 million tons, although slightly lower than the annual output, but the apparent consumption growth rate reached 3.96% year-on-year, which is the main driver for the long-term low inventory.
Since January, there has been no cold repair production line in the float glass industry, while the photovoltaic glass industry has ignited two production lines, with a net increase of 2,100 tons per day in daily melting. Zhang Linglu said that the demand for heavy alkali is still increasing, which has also led to the continuous increase in the consumption of soda ash in the downstream industry of heavy alkali. In addition, the Spring Festival was earlier this year, and the active stocking of pre-holiday stocks in the middle and downstream since January has also led to the transfer of industrial chain inventory from the production end to the middle and lower streams, aggravating the continuous decline of soda ash stocks since this year.
Ma Yangguang, director of the Zhengzhou business department of COFCO Futures, told reporters that the low inventory of soda ash has actually begun to appear in the second quarter of 2022, and the low inventory has become more obvious after September 2022, and has been maintained until now. From the perspective of inventory alone, the soda ash industry inventory of less than 500,000 tons is already a tight balance. "The reason for the low stock of soda ash in 2022 is that after the suspension of Lianyungang alkali industry, the domestic soda ash supply side has been reduced, and there has also been the commissioning of the photovoltaic industry and the large-scale cold repair of float glass as expected. Under the premise of the current loss of the whole industry, the continuous production of float glass industry definitely requires a stable supply of soda ash raw materials, which is also the main reason why soda ash has been maintained in a low inventory state. Ma Yangguang said that the current soda ash industry, in the final analysis, is still a problem of supply and demand, supply is fixed, demand has not decreased but slightly increased, a variety of factors have jointly caused the current low inventory pattern.
At the end of December 2022, the industry-wide inventory of Zhuochuang Information was 1.72 million tons, of which the inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 320,000 tons, and after entering January, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers further declined, and as of January 12, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 254,000 tons. "Although the demand for soda ash for float glass and some light alkali downstream products has decreased in 2022, the total inventory of the soda ash industry for the whole year decreased by 1.93 million tons, mainly due to the growth of domestic demand and export demand, the amount of soda ash used by photovoltaic glass increased by 1.2 million tons in 2022, and it is expected that soda ash exports will increase by 1.38 million tons in 2022." Chen Qiusha said.
How long does low inventory last?
Zhang Linglu said that in the short term, 1-2 weeks before the Spring Festival to 1-2 weeks after the Spring Festival belong to the seasonal accumulation cycle of soda ash enterprises, but the accumulation before the Spring Festival in 2022 only lasts about a week, and there is also an anti-seasonal destocking in the fourth quarter. In addition, combined with the current soda ash spot market situation, the adjustment resilience of the supply side is very limited, but the demand side still maintains a strong pattern, and the phenomenon of tight supply still exists. Although there is an expectation of accumulation before the Spring Festival, the extent will be very limited, and at the same time, we must be wary of the possibility of anti-seasonal decline.
In the long run, there will be a market watershed in the middle of this year, and the key factor is whether the first phase of Yuanxing production capacity is put into operation as scheduled. Although the project has been increased from the original 3.4 million tons to 5 million tons, there are various rumors in the market such as batch release and early release, and the latest news will reach the critical point of production time in May and July this year. Therefore, before a large number of new production capacity is put into operation in Yuanxing, soda ash will still maintain a tight pattern of supply and demand, and it is difficult for enterprise inventory to accumulate significantly. If Yuanxing production capacity is batched and landed as scheduled, it is necessary to see the actual landing capacity range on the supply side, and the demand side needs to look at the increase of photovoltaic glass and other sectors (such as light alkali consumption recovery).
From the perspective of the whole year, after the first phase of the Yuanxing project is put into operation, the soda ash supply side will face huge capacity pressure, coupled with the 1 million tons of production capacity delayed to 2023 in 2022, the potential new production capacity of the soda ash industry in 2023 may reach 6 million tons, and the total production capacity of the industry is also expected to exceed 38 million tons, with an increase of 18.5% during the year. Under the capacity pressure on the supply side, the annual increase in the daily melting capacity of the downstream of heavy alkali exceeds 95,000 tons to offset the capacity pressure of 6 million tons, and such an increase is difficult to achieve by the current float glass and photovoltaic glass production line changes. In other words, although the increase in photovoltaic glass production capacity can be expected, but it may be offset by the loss of cold repair of float glass production line, the net increase in daily melting volume of the two major industries is difficult to reach 95,000 tons and above, so the annual soda ash supply and demand pattern to a loose state is a high probability event, enterprise inventory may also gradually change the long-term low operation state after the second half of the year.
In Ma Sunshine's view, there are two main factors affecting the low inventory of soda ash in the later stage, one is the increase in the supply side, typical is the natural alkali project of Yuanxing Energy Inner Mongolia Alxa in 2023, if the company can put into production according to the plan, the low inventory of soda ash will be significantly alleviated after June 2023; The second is the start of domestic float glass, after the domestic epidemic is released, the economy of various industries have shown signs of recovery, the float glass industry is also paying attention to the real estate market in 2023, it is the existence of this good expectation, so that the current float industry has not appeared a wide range of cold repair, but once the recovery of real estate after the Spring Festival is not as expected, it is not ruled out that some glass companies fell before the "dawn" of the industry warming, once the demand side shrinks, it can also change the low inventory pattern of soda ash.
Soda ash or first rise and then suppress in 2023?
Looking forward to the future market, Zhang Linglu said that in the middle of 2023, the soda ash industry may usher in a watershed in the supply and demand pattern from strong to weak, and the key factor is whether the first phase of the supply side Yuanxing production capacity can be put into production on time. Due to the large production capacity and low cost of the project, the new production capacity can occupy the pricing dominance by virtue of its cost advantage after landing, driving the price of soda ash downward. In addition, after the project is put into operation, the supply side will face huge capacity pressure, coupled with the 1 million tons of production capacity delayed in 2022, the potential new production capacity of the soda ash industry in 2023 may reach 6 million tons, and the production capacity of the soda ash industry may also exceed 38 million tons, with an increase of 18.5% during the year.
"There will be more uncertainties on the demand side in 2023." Zhang Linglu said that although the float market has improved since January, the current market is still facing greater inventory pressure and cost pressure, and there are more production lines with a long kiln age, which has buried greater risk factors for cold repair of production lines. At present, the daily melting capacity of the 10-year production line is about 15,000 tons, while the daily melting capacity of the 8-year production line is about 28,000 tons. If the production line is all cold repaired for more than 8 years, the glass production line will lose 43,000 tons of daily melting capacity again, which is equivalent to an annual soda ash loss of 2.27 million tons. However, the market has strong expectations for the recovery of the domestic economy and real estate this year, and the improvement of glass demand, so the glass industry is expected to come out of the trough, and the willingness to release water and cold repair in the production line may also be greatly reduced.
Photovoltaic glass will continue to maintain a high-speed growth trend this year, according to the current planned output, the photovoltaic glass industry plans to increase the daily melting capacity of about 72,000 tons in 2023, but the actual implementation or located in the range of 31150-47150 tons, the annual demand for soda ash increase between 1.65 million tons and 2.49 million tons. If the photovoltaic glass production line is put into operation more actively, this year's increment may still cover the missing amount caused by the cold repair of all current float glass old kilns. In 2023, there is still a strong game between the increase and decrease of the two major downstream plates of heavy alkali, so what really affects the supply and demand pattern of soda ash this year is still the capacity release on the supply side.
Other increments on the demand side can not be ignored, Zhang Linglu said, on the one hand, in the recovery of some downstream industries of light alkali in the post-epidemic era, on the other hand, in the new energy sector such as lithium carbonate, new energy vehicles and other industry expansion brought new demand growth points.
"Overall, the soda ash supply and demand pattern in 2023 will show a state of tightness in the first half of the year and loose in the second half, and the degree of easing depends on the implementation of new investment capacity and demand growth." Zhang Linglu said that in this context, the price of soda ash showed a strong first half of the year, and the possibility of a weak pattern in the second half of the year is very large.
Ma Yangguang said that combined with the current situation of the domestic market, it is expected that the domestic soda ash market in the first half of 2023 is still in a tight balance, but does not rule out the possibility of market fluctuations, focusing on the production of Alxa natural alkali production expectations, the market price is expected to maintain a wide range of oscillations is more likely, not too optimistic, but not pessimistic, to maintain neutrality. Once the natural alkali is put into production in the second half of 2023, the soda ash market at home and abroad will inevitably undergo great changes, and price reduction may become the mainstream.
Chen Qiusha said that in 2023, soda ash new capacity projects will be concentrated, and it is expected that soda ash production will increase by 10% year-on-year in 2023, domestic consumption will increase by 3.7%, imports will remain at a low level, and exports will decline moderately. The supply increment is significantly higher than the demand increment, soda ash supply will gradually from tight to loose, but the release of soda ash new production capacity is concentrated in the second half of the year, it is expected that the first half of the soda ash supply will remain tight, in the second half of the year, with the release of soda ash new production capacity, soda ash supply will gradually relax. "Under such a supply and demand pattern, the price of soda ash may show a trend of rising first and then suppressing, and then high and then low."
High inventory at glass manufacturers
Glass is now in a "strong expectations, weak reality" pattern. Zhang Xi, a researcher at the Industrial Products Department of Huishang Futures Research Institute, said that strong expectations are the market's optimistic expectations for various policies in 2023, including real estate, which is a boost to confidence. The weak reality of glass can be summarized by "three lows and one high", which refers to the low operating rate of glass, low demand, low profits, and high inventory.
"The operating rate of glass has been declining since the second half of last year." Zhang Xi believes that the decrease in the operating rate is mainly due to the cold winter of real estate in 2022, the overall demand is low, and the negative feedback caused by the entire industry from the demand side has further led to the profit of glass companies entering the negative range. The float glass production line maintains a loss state, and the production profit of coal in glass production enterprises is -215 yuan / ton, the production profit of petroleum coke is -24 yuan / ton, and the production profit of natural gas is -238 yuan / ton, no matter which process is a loss state. This further leads to production enterprises that cannot bear losses to reduce the operating rate, which enters a negative feedback loop.
The high inventory reflected in a high is also caused by the demand side. Zhang Xi said that the demand for real estate is poor, but glass manufacturers because of the high cost of cold repair and shutdown, so enterprises will not easily cold repair, resulting in continuous squeezing of inventory, up to now the inventory of glass companies is still at a high level, compared with the same period last year 63.37%. However, it is worth noting that since 2023, the market's expectation of a later demand recovery has stimulated a wave of demand for recent winter reserves, resulting in a decline in inventories in the last 4 weeks. However, overall, the current high inventory may still inhibit the height of the rebound.
Affected by multiple factors, since the second half of 2022, the expectation of destocking in the peak season of glass demand has been disappointed one after another, the inventory of production enterprises has continued to run at a high level, and the industry has continued to come under pressure. Wei Chaoming, a senior researcher at Founder Medium-term Futures, said. Data show that by the end of 2022, the inventory of glass enterprises in key provinces was 54.34 million heavy containers, a year-on-year increase of 77.5%. "Under the pressure of high inventory and low demand, glass original sheet manufacturers have fallen into historically rare industry-wide losses in the past two quarters." Wei Chaoming believes that with the recent increase of economic vitality, the glass market has gradually got rid of the downturn, the low price stabilization and logistics recovery superimposed, and the demand in North China and Central China is strong in the short term. "Overall, the inventory of glass manufacturers is significantly higher than in previous years, and the replenishment of downstream traders and deep processing enterprises before the Spring Festival is limited."
"In the later stage, it depends on whether the strong expectations can actually be fulfilled, giving the real estate industry actual benefits." For glass, you can pay attention to 5-9 reverse sleeve. "Zhang Xi.
This article is from Futures Daily