Summary: Iran's nationwide demonstrations triggered by the "death of Amini" have lasted for more than four months. Since September last year, the ethics police unit responsible for enforcing the law has relaxed enforcement, and earlier this year, authorities said its tolerance had begun to decrease, warning that women were required to wear headscarves even in cars. On January 10, Iran's Meir news agency said the attorney general had issued an order ordering police to "severely punish any violation of the headscarf"; In addition, the courts impose fines and additional penalties on offenders, such as exile, prohibition from specific occupations and closure of workplaces. How will the Iranian headscarf demonstrations end? How to understand the meaning of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Qiu Wenping, an invited researcher at the Institute of Chinese Studies of Fudan University and director of the Religious Studies Research Office of the Institute of Religious Studies of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, made the following interpretations.
Observer Network: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei publicly stated in December that he would "revolutionize the country's cultural system" and eliminate cultural weaknesses in various fields. He pointed out that the Islamic Revolution has profoundly changed Iran's political, cultural and social foundations and ideological views, transformed the false "Westernist" culture into a "resistance to the West" culture, and transformed the culture of "selfishness and reputation" into a culture of "sacrifice and selflessness", and now the "positive spirit" of the Iranian Islamic Revolution is being undermined by various factors. How to understand Khamenei's speech? Does it mean a new turn in the spirit of Iran's Islamic revolution, will it strengthen Islamic culture or respond to the demands of the people?
Qiu Wenping: The purpose of Iran's "Islamic Revolution" is to establish a theocratic regime that "does not want the West, does not want the East, but only Islam." If we look beyond the superiority of the Western system and look at Iran with open eyes, we will find that Iran has actually been building a "civilized state" of Islamic Shia.
Sharia law is the constitutional foundation of Iran, the theoretical root of all political behavior, and a set of ethical rules that guide life. Therefore, Khamenei's speech is only a revision of the rigid religious law enforcement of the government and religious law enforcement agencies, and the strengthening of Islamic cultural values in a softer, gentler way acceptable to young people, and is by no means a turn in the spirit of the Islamic revolution.
On January 4, 2023, local time, Tehran, Iran, Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei (center) met with Iranian women. Source: Visual China
Iran is now in a very difficult situation, the US sanctions against Iran have seriously affected the livelihood of the Iranian people, Iran has a high birth rate, high youth unemployment and low income, coupled with rent-seeking in various branches of power, resulting in a boiling of public discontent.
Internal and external forces have used the "turban turmoil" to attack Iran, which has aggravated the complexity of the situation, and appropriate reforms are necessary, otherwise they will not be enough to calm public anger, and rigid institutional amendments can not be completed overnight.
Observer Network: Khamenei called Iran's Islamic Revolution a culture of "resistance to the West", but it can also be seen that there are also a considerable number of pro-Western forces in Iran.
Qiu Wenping: Before the "Islamic Revolution", Iran was the most Westernized country in the Middle East. But the consequences of Westernization soon manifested themselves, with the good aspects of traditional Islam abandoned, the social order out of order, and the ills of modernity's worship of money, desire, and materialism greatly abhorred by traditional Muslims. Coupled with the loss of sovereignty, the exploitation of resources by the West, the West's proxies and the knee-bending royal family were eventually overthrown by Khomeini.
The purpose of "rebellion against the West" is to restore "indigenous" civilization, a political system based on Shariah that has lasted for thousands of years and is not new; However, how to keep pace with the times in the era of globalization is a difficult challenge. Young people will inevitably resist all disciplines, especially in the case of economic difficulties, the comprehensive economic sanctions of the United States and the West are to aggravate public dissatisfaction, and at the same time, the "headscarf storm" ferments so violently, behind the United States and the West, especially the United States, in an attempt to provoke a "color revolution" in Iran through public opinion hegemony.
Iran is in a difficult situation at home and abroad, but how can an independent dream succeed without paying a price? The 25-year agreement between Iran and China, active interaction with Russia, are all they are looking for a breakthrough.
Observer Network: Iranian media said on January 2 that the local police had resumed clothing warnings. On January 10, Iran's Meir news agency also said the attorney general had issued an order to "severely punish any violation of the headscarf rule." Since demonstrations erupted in September 2022, several women have not been wearing headscarves but have not been stopped by morality police. Previously, there was talk that Iran would review the headscarf law, including the relaxation of moral police controls, how do you think this demonstration will end in the end? Can the authority of the theocracy be shaken, or will it be lost, as in previous oil price protests?
Qiu Wenping: After observing for a period of time, the Iranian government should feel that the popularity of the headscarf incident has decreased, and the intensity of religious law enforcement will gradually recover. It is not possible to revisit the headscarf law, the name of the Islamic Republic of Iran shows that Iran is a country ruled by law, the hijab ban is an ancient rule of Islamic law, and lifting the ban is equivalent to denying Islamic law.
Of course, the enforcement of the morality police may make a certain humane reform, and the agitation of young people must be appeased. The demonstration will not fundamentally shake the authority of the theocracy, but if the economy does not improve and external sanctions continue, Iran's situation will become increasingly difficult. After all, it is very hard to fight the entire Western and Arab world with the power of one country, but Iran has trudged this path for decades, and in this respect it is admirable.
Observer Network: Last year, many media reported about the health of Iran's supreme leader, Shiite spiritual leader Khamenei, but the Iranian authorities quickly refuted the rumors.
Qiu Wenping: The influence will not be great, the religious council above the Iranian government is composed of many highly respected ayatollahs (honorific titles for senior Islamic Shiite clerics), and the supremacy of the theocracy is protected by the collective decision of the clergy as a whole, and will not change drastically because of Khamenei's personal departure. Moreover, Khamenei himself, because of his long career in administrative affairs, is not the highest in the Shiite clergy system, and sometimes needs to be tougher in the church to gain support.
Observer Network: As you said earlier, Iran's external international environment is very difficult, it is still facing sanctions, and the renegotiation of the Iranian nuclear agreement has not progressed, Iran's foreign minister said on December 20 that as long as the bottom line of Tehran is respected, Iran will return to the nuclear agreement again, while the US Biden said in a video clip that "the agreement is dead"; The European Union said it will continue to work with Iran on the nuclear deal in Jordan, and Israel also wants the United States to return to the negotiating table.
Qiu Wenping: For major countries in the world, the risk of Iran having nuclear weapons is too great. It is indeed too difficult for Iran to have nuclear weapons, and the Iranian nuclear agreement is an agreement that everyone wants to reach. Trump's rash tearing up the Iranian nuclear agreement is actually quite irrational and irresponsible at the expense of international security for the short-term interests of the United States.
Iranian Foreign Minister: The window for reaching an agreement in the Iranian nuclear negotiations "will not be open forever." Source: Visual China
The European Union, Russia and China all support a return to the JCPOA, and Israel certainly agrees that Iran without nuclear weapons may not be able to beat Israel.
Based on its calculation of manipulating oil and gas prices, the United States will not stop suppressing Venezuela and Iran, which have the world's largest oil reserves, so Biden has little interest in reaching the Iranian nuclear agreement and returning Iran to the international community, and he wants to solve Iran once and for all by instigating a color revolution.
Observer.com: Speaking of Israel, since Netanyahu returned to power in the November 2022 elections, threats and intimidating rhetoric have reappeared, sometimes to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons, sometimes to launch military action against Iran. What might happen to the future situation in the region with conservatives in Iran and the far right in Israel against each other? How will the Iranian government react to this?
Qiu Wenping: They have been shelling each other for decades, and they will continue to do so after that. Israel's greatest fear of Iran is Iran's development of nuclear weapons, which is absolutely unacceptable to Israel. Because once Iran possesses nuclear weapons, there is a possibility that it will actually be dropped on Israel.
As Israel's far-right comes to power, the possibility of resorting to force in the Middle East grows because of the divisions and chaos in the Islamic world. But Iran and Israel do not border each other, and the biggest possibility at this stage is the undeclared struggle in Syria. Subsequent developments are mainly based on changes in US policy in the Middle East.
Observer Network: Some time ago, Iranian officials raised their dissatisfaction with the content of the joint statement between China and the GCC concerning territorial disputes; In its dealings with the Middle East, I am afraid that it often touches on the fluctuating moods and changing interests within the Islamic world, how should China weigh it?
Qiu Wenping: China has always advocated the concept of a "community with a shared future for mankind", and for the Middle East region, where conflicts never stop, this beautiful vision is shared by everyone, but it is very difficult to implement it. Because the Middle East has been in a jungle society for a long time, it adheres to the law of "the law of the jungle". But with China's strength and involvement, Middle Eastern countries began to seriously consider China's five principles of peaceful coexistence.
We have all noted Iran's response to China's statement, but we should also see that at the Gulf Security Summit at the end of last year, Iran responded to China's proposal to "support GCC countries to improve relations with Iran", and the stiff relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia has shown signs of loosening.
The Middle East has always been a great power colosseum, and peace has never been easy. China and the Middle East have never had a grudge, have good relations with all parties, mediate in the middle, and many conflicts will have better solutions.
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