The security situation in the heart of Asia is constantly changing around Afghanistan. During this sensitive period, Iran and Pakistan are also gradually moving towards unity, and have vaguely put on a posture of working together at the military level to deal with the Afghan problem. To put it in a word, that is, the Taliban may really be in trouble this time.
Caption: Major General Bagheri, Chief of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces
According to the Tehran Times, a few days ago, Major General Bagheri, chief of the General Staff of the Iranian armed forces, said in a telephone conversation with General Mirza, chairman of the Pakistani Joint Chiefs of Staff, that Iran is willing to jointly form a joint working group with the Pakistani side to strengthen cooperation between the two sides in national defense and security, especially in common border security. Bagheri said that the Iraqi army is fully prepared to accelerate the construction of the joint task force.
The task force Bagheri refers to the rapid reaction force that the two countries jointly negotiated in 2019. The original intention of the two sides was to combat rebels and terrorist organizations in the border between the two countries. The border between Pakistan and Iran is about 950 kilometers long, and the security situation on both sides of the border has been grim due to ethnic, religious and other reasons.
Caption: Pakistani security forces
Forces such as the Baloch Liberation Army, which mainly targets Pakistan, and the "Justice Army", which mainly attacks targets in Iran, have been operating in this area, and taking advantage of the lack of coordination between the Pakistani and Iranian armies, they have crossed the border to avoid when attacked by one side. Before they jointly discussed the establishment of a quick reaction force in 2019, the governments of Pakistan and Iran accused each other of poor response.
Therefore, on the surface, the main goal of this discussion on strengthening military cooperation seems to be to eliminate the factors of instability in the border areas of the two countries. However, judging from the actual development of the regional situation, the military cooperation between the two sides is likely to extend to jointly dealing with the Afghan issue.
We must first be clear that the unstable areas on Iran's border with Pakistan are in fact broadly defined as Balochistan, which roughly includes the province of Sistan-Baluchistan in southeastern Iran, Balochistan in southwestern Pakistan, and Balochistan in southern Afghanistan. The relatively close geographical location, as well as the fact that the central government's control over the southern region is relatively limited due to decades of turmoil in Afghanistan, has made the Baloch Liberation Army and other forces have long regarded Afghanistan as an important base and will withdraw into Afghanistan after being attacked by Pakistan and Iran.
Baluchistan has more mountainous terrain
In this context, Iran and Pakistan cannot fail to deal with Afghanistan if they want to restore calm to their border provinces once and for all. But now, the delicate relationship between the two countries and the Taliban government in Afghanistan has made it impossible for the three parties to act together, but it is more likely that the two countries will act together to deal with Atta.
At present, there are many contradictions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. First of all, the border demarcation issue, the current border between the two sides basically continues the Durand line drawn by the British in 1893, but just like the partition of India and Pakistan, the British did not think carefully when drawing the line, so that millions of Pashtuns lived in the two countries. And Atta itself is an organization with Pashtun backbones. As a result, Kabul has refused to officially recognize the current border line, and the two sides have repeatedly fought over key points on the border, and even exchanged fire on many occasions.
Illustration: Durand Line
On counter-terrorism, Atta has made a commitment to the international community to address domestic terrorism, but his primary target is organizations such as the Islamic State Khorasan Branch (ISIS-K). Atta has been vague about how to deal with the Pakistani Taliban, which has a delicate relationship with him, allowing Bata to hide in Afghanistan and constantly plan terrorist activities against Pakistan, resulting in increasingly tense relations between Islamabad and Kabul. Not long ago, the Pakistani government and military jointly issued a statement, warning the Taliban authorities without naming them not to shelter any armed organization that threatens Pakistan's security.
Afghanistan's relationship with Iran is more delicate than Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. After the Taliban invaded Kabul and Afghanistan turned into a sky, Iran was once regarded as the "biggest beneficiary", and there was indeed room for cooperation between the two sides on issues such as joint response to the US threat, counter-terrorism, and refugees.
Caption: U.S. troops evacuated Kabul urgently
But the contradictions between the two sides cannot be ignored. The two countries themselves have sectarian differences. On the issue of ethnicity, Iran has always regarded itself as the protector of the Tajiks of the same Persian-speaking ethnic group and the Hazara people, who are also Shiites, and attaches great importance to how Atta treats the two ethnic groups in Afghanistan.
In addition, the Hari and Helmand rivers, which originate in Afghanistan, are also important water sources for Iran, and there are hidden dangers between the two sides on the issue of water use. Under the influence of these factors, there have long been cracks in the relationship between the two sides, and a small-scale border conflict broke out between Atta fighters and Iranian border guards in August last year. It can be seen that it is entirely possible that Pakistan's military cooperation with Iran will extend to Afghanistan.
Caption: Iranian Army
If there is a real risk of escalation between Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan, the mainland will not be able to stay away. After all, both Iran and Pakistan are members of the SCO and have close ties with the mainland. Although the Atta government has not yet been directly recognized by the mainland, the mainland has begun to provide more economic assistance to Afghanistan as Atta has made certain achievements on the issue of counter-terrorism.
Involving the mainland in this matter is actually an excellent option to ease the contradictions between the three parties, and China's attitude will become crucial. It should be known that although the military cooperation between Iran and Pakistan may cause another change in the situation around Afghanistan, if the relevant issues can be placed under the framework of the SCO and the mainland can play a coordinating role, there is still hope that a series of contradictions between Pakistan and Afghanistan can be resolved smoothly through consultations. Under the mediation of the mainland, the three countries have jointly dealt with the security risks in the Baluchistan region, and this stage is undoubtedly one of the best solutions for the peaceful settlement of the border problems of Afghanistan's neighboring countries.