Smooth progression
In the two matches of the final round of the fifth group of the World Cup, which ended this morning (2nd) Beijing time, the dramatic changes were full of emotion. However, the most eye-catching thing was VAR, which allowed the Spaniard's "little calculation" to finally get his wish and lose 1-2 to Japan. This result not only sent rival Germany home early, but also avoided Brazil, the biggest favorites who are currently gaining momentum, on the way to promotion, and of course, sent a "shunshui favor" to Japan to advance to the round of 16 as the first team in the group, allowing Asia to have a second team to enter the knockout round.
1. Spaniards have "small nine-nines"
As the group stage draws to a close, the whole situation has become clearer, so the later the team starts the game, the more you can judge the overall trend. For example, Spain, because they finished first in the group in points before the match, before the final round, it was clear that the direct opponent who qualified in the future was the 1/8 final, and it was either Morocco in the sixth group or Croatia in second place. In contrast, Croatia, as an old rival in Europe, knows each other well and is not so easy to deal with. Especially like the Spanish team currently has more young players, there is a lack of experience in the competition, and if it is directly head-to-head, there is not much certainty. In contrast, although Morocco finished first in the group and was not weak, after all, this is the first time in 36 years that the team has reached the round of 16 of the World Cup, and if it plays against this opponent, it has a better chance of winning than directly against Croatia. What's more, he has only played against Morocco three times in the past, but he has won 2 and drawn 1, and he is unbeaten. The most recent time was in the final round of the group stage of the last World Cup, when it was also a "calculation", and finally drew 2-2, and had to go to the host team Russia, and because of the penalty loss and stopped in the round of 16.
Therefore, the first "small nine-nine" of the Spanish team is that it is best to finish second in the group, which is more conducive to their own promotion. And, from a future perspective, although Brazil, the biggest favourites for this World Cup, has not yet decided whether it will be first or second in the group, it will certainly reach the round of 16, and unless they lose by a large margin to Cameroon in the final round, they will basically be first in the group. Once that happens, Brazil will reach the top half of the knockout stage, and there will be favorites like Argentina in the first half. Spain, on the other hand, would be in second place in the group by going to the bottom half to avoid the two favourites.
It was precisely such a "small calculation" that Spain started well and Morata broke the deadlock in the 11th minute to take a 1-0 lead. But after that, the Spanish team began to "play" on the field, and the Japanese team was indeed played a little "embarrassed", in the first 30 minutes, the Japanese team did not pass more than 100 feet, throughout the first half, the Spanish team has passed more than 550 feet, while the Japanese team is barely over 110 feet. In particular, goalkeepers like the Spanish team have also played various "flower jobs". However, although Japan conceded the first goal, at least not the second in the subsequent matches, and Spain were not able to create the necessary scoring chances, which created the conditions for Japan's counterattack in the second half.
2. Japan counterattacked and seized the opportunity
As in previous games against Germany, Japan opted for a more secure defensive strategy in the first half of the game and seized the opportunity to counterattack. In the second half, wait for the opportunity to carry out a full-scale counterattack. Therefore, before the start of the second half, the Japanese team changed two people in a row, replacing No. 5 Yuto Nagatomo with No. 9 Kaoru Mikasa and No. 11 Kenei Kubo with No. 8 Yasuru Do. Spain, on the other hand, only adjusted the right-back position. After the start of the game, the Japanese team no longer focused on steadiness as in the first half, but more actively pressed.
It was precisely because of the high pressure that forced Spain to make a mistake in the backfield pass, because the Spanish team still wanted to "play" as in the first half after the start of the second half, but in the 48th minute, after the goalkeeper's pass error, Don Anlu, who had just replaced, seized the opportunity, broke the ball and shot hard to chase the score to 1-1. But Spain didn't seem to be in such a hurry after conceding the goal, because it was just starting to move towards the situation they wanted. So, just three minutes later, Japan scored a second goal.
Of course, it has to be said that this second goal is controversial, even if VAR intervenes, but I am afraid that there will still be controversy in the future as a whole whether the ball as a whole has gone out of bounds. Because of the issue surrounding VAR intervention, this World Cup has appeared many times since the opening, especially after the match between France and Tunisia, the French Football Federation has appealed FIFA to explicitly request a change in the decision of Griezmann's goal VAR. Of course, there is no point in changing the verdict, and even if France wins this draw, it will still be the first place in the group, and it will not affect the game itself. However, this VAR penalty had a significant impact on the qualification situation of the entire group.
In fact, in another game played at the same time, Costa Rica also tied the score shortly after the start of the second half, and at one point overtook the score 2-1. If the results of these two matches continue until the end, Japan and Costa Rica will advance hand in hand, while Spain and Germany will be eliminated at the same time. However, at this time, the German team did not "swing", but first tied the score in the 73rd minute, and then went down two more in the 85th and 89th minutes to win 4-2.
However, Spain do not seem to be in a hurry to fall behind, as they seem convinced that Germany will play back so that they can finish second in the group. Therefore, after 1-2, although personnel adjustments were made, the whole rhythm dragged on, and there was no rush. After leading 2-1, Japan retreated across the board, hoping to hold on until the end of the game. In the end, the Japanese team won the game with its sticky tactics. Spain, on the other hand, took home on goal difference with Germany on four points.
3. The controversy VAR completes Asia
It should be admitted that the Japanese team has a certain level, and "luck" is of course favoring those who have strength. Just as Japan's second goal was controversial, but Japan did not give up at that moment, two players came off the bench No. 9 Kaoru Mikasa and No. 25 Maeda to fight for a point at the same time, Kaoru Mikata crossed the ball, and No. 17 Bi Tanaka in the middle did not stop, but rushed directly to the goal. It is precisely this spirit of "every ball must fight" that has given us such an opportunity to intervene. If any of the three chooses to stop in one link, I am afraid that there will be no chance for VAR to intervene, and the Japanese team may not have this goal.
From another point of view, after the previous hosts Qatar, Iran and Saudi Arabia and other Asian teams were eliminated one after another, the World Cup returned to Asia after 20 years, and there should be teams in Asia to break into the knockout stage anyway, although the Australian team has become the first team in the day before, but after all, the sense of identity and belonging in Asia is not strong. Moreover, at the World Cup in Korea and Japan 20 years ago, two Asian teams advanced to the knockout rounds, and this time may not be worse than the one 20 years ago. Therefore, there will be more or less psychological factors of "care" or favoritism in all aspects.
For Japan, if they draw with Spain, they will be eliminated because of their low goal difference, and only a win will make it possible to qualify. Moreover, at the scene of Japan and Spain, the big screen will display the instant points table according to the goals scored in the two matches at any time, so both Japan and Spain can clearly understand the qualification situation. When Costa Rica led 2-1 at one point and the points table showed that Japan and Costa Rica would be able to qualify at the same time, Spain was still a little anxious on the bench because Spain could only qualify if they were drawn. Therefore, Enrique also immediately replaced Alba and Fathi. But after Germany quickly tied the scoreline, Spain seemed to be in no hurry.
Many factors came together to win the match 2-1 and knock Germany out. In the end, the German team did not qualify and was out of the group stage for two consecutive World Cups, and they could only blame themselves that they should not be reversed by Japan in the first round. Of course, the Germans are not as "calculating" as the Spaniards, if the Germans are also "rotten", and in the case of their own hopelessness, they simply lose at the last moment, "complete" the Costa Rican team, and pull the Spanish team out of the water together, who should the Spaniards go to?
As a result, the Japanese team finally ushered in the "Light of Asia" and successfully entered the round of 16. Although the VAR controversy will continue, history will only remember that Japan eliminated Germany and reached the round of 16 at the World Cup with the top spot in their group. In any case, Japan's promotion is also an honor earned for Asian football, and the Japanese team should be congratulated.