Original topic: The Qatar World Cup is in full swing, and it is now known that the group stage Group E has played two rounds and has already produced results, the first round result is Japan 2-1 Germany, Spain 7-0 Costa Rica; The second round results were Costa Rica 1-0 Japan, Germany 1-1 Spain. Q: How does Japan qualify for the group stage?
Untie:
∵ Costa Rica 1-0 Japan, Japan 2-1 Germany, Spain 7-0 Costa Rica, Germany 1-1 Spain.
∴ E组积分目前为西班牙4分、日本3分、哥斯达黎加3分、德国1分。
∵ Group E third round is Japan vs Spain, Germany vs Costa Rica
∴ 可能出现以下九种情况
西班牙胜(7分出线),德国胜(4分出线),日本负(3分淘汰),哥斯达黎加负(3分淘汰);
西班牙胜(7分出线),哥斯达黎加胜(6分出线),日本负(3分淘汰),德国负(1分淘汰);
西班牙胜(7分出线),哥斯达黎加平(4分不确定),日本负(3分淘汰),德国平(2分淘汰);
哥斯达黎加胜(6分出线),西班牙平(5分出线),日本平(4分淘汰),德国平(2分淘汰);
西班牙平(5分出线),哥斯达黎加平(4分出线),日本平(4分淘汰,哥斯达黎加小分获胜),德国平(2分淘汰);
西班牙平(5分出线),日本平(4分出线),德国胜(4分淘汰,日本小分获胜),哥斯达黎加负(3分淘汰);
哥斯达黎加胜(6分出线),日本胜(6分出线),西班牙负(4分淘汰),德国负(1分淘汰);
日本胜(6分出线),西班牙负(4分不确定),德国胜(4分不确定),哥斯达黎加负(3分)淘汰;
日本胜(6分出线),西班牙负(4分不确定),哥斯达黎加平(4分不确定),德国平(2分淘汰);
∴ 可能出现以下三类情况
Japan has a 100% chance of qualifying for the third game of the group stage, and winning ensures qualification;
Japan has a 33.3% chance of qualifying for the third draw in the group stage, with Germany winning at the same time;
Japan has a 0% chance of qualifying from the third defeat in the group stage.
∴ 综合上述,日本第三场比赛获胜即出线,失利则淘汰,平局仅保留出线可能。