Why did economic growth achieve remarkable results after last writing about shock therapy in Poland? , this time we discuss some relevant cases to deepen the understanding of the Polish model. Isn't it a strange phenomenon that Poland's total bank assets accounted for more than 66% of GDP in 2001, and about 80% of this capital comes from foreign countries, which means that more than half of the country's output value is created by foreign banks? Uzbekistan's economic reforms are clearly modeled on Poland, and it is not difficult to find that the two are highly homogeneous in many places. Before modern times, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was a larger country in Central and Eastern Europe, and although the Uzbeks did not form a stable unified country, but the Khiva, Bukhara and Kokand Khanate were the most important countries in the region, other tribes such as Kazakhs, Turkmens, Kyrgyzs and Tajiks are in a marginal state, although the Tajiks have a large population in Tashkent, Samarkand and other places, but the countries really established by the Tajiks such as Shiqnam, Rashan and other Eastern Bukhara feudal territories are small countries along the Panj River. Its impact is extremely limited. It is an indisputable fact that the status of the Tajiks fell sharply after the fall of the Samanid dynasty.
Uzbek's behavior and Poland are very similar, but after the drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, Poland was hit by shock therapy and the loss of the exchange circle for a long time, while Uzbekistan did not carry out shock therapy, and soon resumed economic growth, some scholars who study the transition (such as Kozminski) believe that gradual and radical change are different manifestations of the "Washington Consensus" of the transition, essentially the same path, no fundamental differences. The reform program of Uzbekistan is very close to Raisekko in Poland. Balselovic plan, because eventually the introduction of foreign financial capital to exist in the country for a long time, but this possibility is very low, either like Poland to become a market for the euro dollar to compete for the game and obtain relative financial security, or like Sino by creating the inherent absolute financial security of land finance. There is no other way. The explicit call for a reduction in dollarization in Uzbekistan's reform plan discourages the possibility of the first model, as it has begun to package and sell its main assets to banks in Central Europe, including some such as Hungary. As we all know, most of the banking industries in Eastern European countries after the transition are controlled by Western European or American capital (except for Slovakia, the proportion of European and American capital control in the banking industry of other Eastern European countries is between 55% and 97%), that is, Western European capital is indirectly introduced, and the uncertainty of the Western European capital market itself has also increased significantly, especially since the Ukraine crisis, the euro has been repeatedly hit, and even began to have the risk of the disintegration of the euro area, which makes Polish-style stability seriously threatened. Poland and Uzbekistan, which is about to move in the direction of Poland, are grasshoppers in a line, they can be described as "both prosperous and detrimental", but the ship of Europe is already in danger, the contradictions and differences between the Mediterranean consortium and Germany will only grow under the pressure of the United States, and the EU's own core capital market cooperation has a crack that is difficult to bridge.
EU leader Germany
Therefore, in addition to the vigorous fire and sword, the tear between the United States and Europe is the most noteworthy. If the US decision-making level had been a little more agile, there would not have been so much chaos, and the situation of the United States and Europe co-governing Eastern Europe may finally be established, and although Europe will be more controlled by the United States, it can still make progress in the field of commodity market development, but now this situation has clearly illustrated one point, that is, the tearing of Europe and the cruelty in US-European relations have become more and more obvious, and Poland's kind of US-European competition is easily reversed, that is, in the final stage of competition. The two sides launched a series of financial wars in Central and Eastern Europe, resulting in the "battlefield" becoming "coke". In this confrontation of "immortal fight", Poland's stable foundation and economic development potential will be greatly damaged, and eventually lose its economic development prospects. Without this conflict, the Uzbek plan is really possible, that is, to form a small power supported by the United States and Europe in Central Asia, and to form a demonstration effect on neighboring countries, and then achieve more outstanding results than the original Afghan war, which is a spontaneous "New Silk Road" and "Northern Transport Network Plan", and its effect is far more substantial than the deployment of permanent US troops at Khan Abad Air Base or Manas Airport. However, with the intensification of the game between the United States and the Mediterranean consortium, the financial harmony of European and American co-governance no longer exists, and once there is no competitive and coexisting opponent, one of the dominant parties will inevitably impose a more aggressive policy of plundering the resources it controls, which is not uncommon in history.
Therefore, if Tashkent is allowed to pursue its own plans without taking into account external factors in the East, the result can easily develop into a financial sieve eye that has been repeatedly looted by the United States. Kazakhstan also has a tendency to move in the direction of Uzbekistan, which is also dangerous. Politically trying to transform towards the Uzbek foreign trade Ikta model, and economically trying to introduce Western factors in the capital market and make it dominant, but in the short and medium term, Kazakhstan is not directly Eastern European like Uzbekistan, but first becomes a Karimov-style version of Uzbekistan 1.0, and then develops towards Uzbekistan 2.0, that is, Poland version 1.0. At this time, the role of the AIIB can be seen, that is, to compete with the United States for financial dominance in this place. We don't have to come to the rescue of the United States directly in the crisis that killed him, that would only allow him to form a Polish-style balance, and after the complete looting of the United States, we will enter as a limited helper, especially as an assistant to export transit oil and gas resources through Iran's southward sea, so as to support its real economic development, and at the same time build a non-destructive oil and gas futures market dominated by Sino, which is really beneficial to Uzbekistan and to ourselves.
Polish President Duda and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
Finally, we need to look at the essence of this transition from the perspective of economics itself. In fact, we have discussed the capital acquisition quantitative accumulation economy supported by the Soviet-style exchange circle before, and the other is the market economy, that is, the economy of endogenous capital accumulation and continuous reproduction. What is the transition? It is to change from the capitalist world market capital, which originally relied on the export of primary commodities and raw materials, to directly conducting capital market transactions and obtaining Western capital. How to break into this market, that is, by selling its own real assets, so the IMF also bluntly stated when providing Poland with a three-year EFF, directly requiring Poland to increase the degree of privatization of enterprises to 50% within three years, except for the privatization of small shops to domestic employees, most enterprises are not allowed to violate the union standard, so the spontaneous privatization in the country, that is, the acquisition of the original manager was blocked, and had to be sold to foreigners.
By accepting debt relief and direct financial aid, Poland has stifled the trade unions of enterprises and left the necessary time and space to negotiate the sale. In essence, they did not create a set of endogenous logic of capital accumulation and reproduction, but directly sold their hands, introduced foreign capital into the capital market, controlled the majority of the capital, that is, sold themselves to others and became the property of the other party, then the other party will naturally operate relatively carefully. If all these foreign capitals were to withdraw from Poland for some reason, Poland would immediately be beaten back to its original form. Poland's high proportion of financial industry is mostly German, and industrial exports are also Western Europe as the market, and the source of imports is Western Europe. To put it bluntly, all walks of life in the whole country are Western, and the Western capital market drives the industrial development of the West in Poland, making Poland's commodity market look prosperous, but in fact, it is not like that. Therefore, the essence of the transformation is to take the initiative to meet Western financial colonization, commonly known as financial comprador economics. Uzbekistan learned such a set of things, but unfortunately he was born at the wrong time, and this set of reforms is likely to end up tossing the vitality of Mi and making a big mess. Now Yin eats grain, borrows money to spend money, and consumption looks very good, or the principle of the pig on the scale of the production team, beating the swollen face and filling up the fat. Khakimov's optimism is humbling.