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Sun Xingjie: US industrial protectionism "forced opposition" against Germany and the Netherlands?

author:Straight news
Sun Xingjie: US industrial protectionism "forced opposition" against Germany and the Netherlands?

Straight news: German Chancellor Scholz recently said that the good times that European and North American countries were able to enjoy are over. What are your observations on Scholz's statement?

Special Commentator Sun Xingjie: Chancellor Scholz made the above statement at an economic forum organized by the Süddeutsche Zeitung, who recently visited a number of Asian countries, including attending the G20 summit in Indonesia, and at the beginning of his speech he also said that he would share with the audience his experience of his Asian trip. Due to the pandemic, many multilateral meetings have moved online in recent years, and offline diplomatic activities have gradually increased in recent times, and on-the-ground observation and experience is still very important for politicians and diplomats.

After circling around Asia, Scholz concluded that the good old days of Europe and North America are gone, driven by the increasing multipolarization of the world and the structural restructuring. In fact, such a judgment appeared a few years ago, but it still has different weight and impact from the mouths of politicians, especially the recognition that Europe and North America have lost their "unique" status in the world.

I personally believe that Scholz's statement on the one hand represents a sense of distress and crisis in Europe, especially Germany, which needs to face a more multipolar world, find its place in the new global pattern, and re-establish its advantages. One way is to adhere to the direction of globalization and multipolarization, for Germany, globalization and regionalization is an important force in the rise of Germany, relying on the global market, global industrial chain and supply chain, Germany has established its position in Europe and the world. Therefore, Scholz believes that deglobalization is unacceptable in Germany, and he further said that terms such as deglobalization and "nearshoring" are essentially protectionism.

In fact, in the past two years, Europeans have also seen that although the Biden administration verbally wants to strengthen the unity of the Atlantic Community and return to multilateralism, it has actually gone further and further on the road of protectionism, such as the "Inflation Reduction Act" is industrial protectionism, and also pressured allies to force these countries to join the industrial circle led by the United States, including the so-called "friendly shore outsourcing", which is essentially a protectionist routine. To protect their interests, Germany and the EU need to be strategically autonomous and reorient themselves in a multipolar and globalized world, especially by strengthening cooperation with Asia. Therefore, Chancellor Scholz's recent visit to a number of Asian countries, including China, is clearly a precautionary approach.

In addition, Scholz's expression of the end of the good times in Europe and the United States is also an objective reality and future trend of the current world. The good times enjoyed by Europe and the United States are stable economic growth, low inflation and full employment, in fact, there is also high welfare. This good time is essentially a super dividend in Europe and the United States at the top of the global economic pyramid, Europe and the United States took the lead in industrialization and urbanization, and there was a center-edge division on a global scale, but with the progress of globalization, especially the restructuring of the industrial chain and supply chain, Asia and other countries entered the global economic system, industrialization, urbanization spread in the world, production, trade, financial pattern has also undergone plate movement like changes, the center-edge boundary is becoming more and more blurred, In fact, since the 2008 financial crisis, this structural change has occurred, under this change, Germany's choice is undoubtedly to follow the trend, integrate into the Asian development trend, share the dividends of Asian development, including Germany and other European countries have strengthened cooperation with ASEAN, India and other countries, which will also accelerate the change of the Asian regional pattern, we must also pay full attention to this.

Sun Xingjie: US industrial protectionism "forced opposition" against Germany and the Netherlands?

Straight news: According to media reports, the Dutch Minister of Foreign Trade has made it clear twice that he will make his own decision on ASML's sale of chip equipment to China.

Special Commentator Sun Xingjie: Dutch Foreign Trade Minister Schreinemacher at least shows that the Netherlands should make decisions in the field of semiconductor equipment in accordance with its own interests and rules, rather than following the trend of a series of protectionist practices introduced by the United States. It is particularly noteworthy that the recent visit to the Netherlands by the US Department of Commerce officials in charge of export control is actually to lobby and pressure the Netherlands to bind the Netherlands to the small circle of the semiconductor industry created by the United States. The US government previously introduced the so-called chip bill, not to promote the development of the global semiconductor industry, but to piece together a US-led exclusive industrial chain alliance, further speaking, this is a mainly aimed at China's industrial technology camp.

At present, the competition between major countries is increasingly reflected in the competition of industry and technology, we may be able to regard the semiconductor industry as a strategic technology industry, the strategic technology industry is at the top of the pyramid of the global industrial system, occupying the top of the pyramid can obtain a monopoly position, and then can control the development of the global industry. The Biden administration is known for "small courtyards with high walls". Reorganizing industrial and technological alliances to try to dig a moat for the hegemony of the United States, but the semiconductor industry has been globalized, and the idea of decoupling and breaking the chain is difficult to implement, which is tantamount to breaking the bones, including the allies of the United States are victims.

As we all know, ASML in the Netherlands is the world's top lithography machine manufacturer, and without the participation of the Netherlands, it is difficult for the US-led camp to form. Technology and equipment such as lithography machines do have dual attributes, one is strategic attributes and the other is commercial attributes. The so-called strategic attribute is related to national security, or constitutes the basis of international security, in fact, the Netherlands has not exported the most advanced lithography machine to China, in the field of high-tech exports, security and strategic considerations have always existed, SMIC ordered an extreme ultraviolet lithography machine a few years ago was supposed to be delivered in 2019, but has not obtained an export license. ASML's exports to China are products of the previous generation, but in fact, its strategic attributes have been greatly reduced.

Another is commercial attributes, lithography machine is also a commodity, is an important part of the semiconductor industry, China is the world's largest semiconductor market, ASML in the Chinese market revenue, employees, profits are accounted for more than 15%, and with the development of the semiconductor industry, the importance of the Chinese market will be further prominent. Therefore, the strategic technology industry needs to balance between strategic and commercial, and the problem is that the United States has now ignored the commercial nature of the lithography machine for the suppression and containment of China's semiconductor industry, which is a reason that is very difficult for the Netherlands to accept.

The semiconductor industry has been deeply globalized, and the United States is also a member of the semiconductor industry system, but now the United States requires its military allies to join the small circle of industrial technology, which is actually a kind of kidnapping, including the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea and other semiconductor industry powers, being dragged to join the small circle patched together by the United States, in fact, it is smashing the rice bowl of some enterprises in these countries, in fact, it is the behavior of "bullies". Of course, the commercial nature of the strategic technology industry also means that the US approach will inevitably cause dissatisfaction among allies, and the Netherlands' statement is the most obvious example.

Sun Xingjie: US industrial protectionism "forced opposition" against Germany and the Netherlands?

The author丨Sun Xingjie is a special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcast of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"

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