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Turkey is in short supply, egg prices are rising, and Europe is suffering from the "worst bird flu" test

author:CBN

"Winter is coming, I wanted to buy some chicken and eggs to make roast chicken or other desserts, but I didn't expect how the price became so expensive?" Alexandre Espinet, a French resident, complained to the first financial reporter, "I feel that the price of everything around me is still accelerating, some time ago it was oil prices, now it has become the price of chicken and eggs." ”

This phenomenon is not only due to high inflation, but also due to the bird flu that is raging in many European countries.

On the 10th local time, France raised the risk level of avian influenza in the country from "medium" to "high". Between August 1 and November 8 this year, there were 49 outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in France, and the number of cases is still rising, according to the French Ministry of Agriculture.

Data updated by the British government on the 10th showed that since the outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in England in October 2021, a total of 237 cases of poultry infection with avian influenza have been reported, and 103 cases have been reported since October this year. Currently, the risk of infection with the highly pathogenic H5 avian influenza virus in wild birds in the UK is assessed as "very high"; The risk of exposure of UK poultry to the highly pathogenic H5 avian influenza virus is assessed as 'high' or 'moderate' depending on the conditions under which they are raised.

Meng Weixiao, chief analyst of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery at Zheshang Securities, said in an interview with First Financial Reporter that the current epidemic of avian influenza in Europe is mainly because the current H5N1 avian influenza is highly transmissible and a large number of wild birds are infected, "which will first have an impact on the agricultural and food fields in Europe, and will also affect the poultry meat trade in Europe and other countries." ”

Turkey is in short supply, egg prices are rising, and Europe is suffering from the "worst bird flu" test

'Worst avian influenza outbreak'

While avian influenza is no stranger to Europe, many governments in the region are still reminding of the seriousness of this round of avian influenza. Kerry Midle Mis, the UK government's chief veterinary officer, said in a statement: "This year we are facing the largest bird flu outbreak to date, with a rapid rise in numbers of infections on commercial farms and domestic birds across England. The European Food Safety Authority said last month that Europe had suffered its worst outbreak of avian influenza this year.

In Meng Weixiao's view, there are two main reasons behind the current serious outbreak of avian influenza in Europe. First of all, the strain of avian influenza virus circulating in Europe is the H5N1 virus. Compared with the previously circulating H5N8 virus, the H5N1 virus has the characteristics of high transmissibility, because the H5N1 virus can rearrange many genes, producing many different genotypes, accelerating the speed of transmission. "Secondly, the avian influenza virus has caused a large number of wild bird infections, especially the long-legged birds that wade on the shore of the water body, the shorebird. Shorebirds can spread the virus to a wider range through long-distance migration. Meng Weixiao further explained.

Iqbal, head of the bird flu team at the Perbright Institute, a British virus research institute, also believes that the current European avian influenza epidemic is very serious because the bird flu virus is transmitted in wild birds, and the range of wild birds has no boundaries, "dozens of wild birds have carried the virus, which may cause serious diseases in chickens, ducks and other poultry." ”

To prevent the further spread of avian influenza outbreaks, many governments in Europe have taken action. Currently, France has required all poultry to remain indoors. The UK government has also recently announced that all poultry in England must be kept indoors. At the same time, the UK government also stated that the above measures alone are not enough to prevent avian influenza, and all breeders must always follow other relevant biosecurity measures.

Not only that, many European countries have also culled poultry. Gressingham, one of the UK's largest chicken producers, said its entire flocks of geese on three farms had been culled. "Our duck and turkey farms have also been affected." The company said.

France, the EU's second largest poultry producer, has culled around 22 million poultry. The European Food Safety Authority said last month that Europe had culled about 50 million poultry this year.

Turkey shortages and rising egg prices

Bird flu is raging in Europe, leaving chicken producers in the region "crying bitterly". Griffiths, head of the British Poultry Council, said the current epidemic of bird flu is particularly toxic to turkeys, ducks and geese. It hit the supply of birds during the Christmas season, and the impact is growing exponentially.

Gressingham said it was reducing its poultry supply to all its customers.

"We get calls from new customers every week asking how much of their existing orders have been lost due to bird flu. My regular customers will get their supply, but new orders will be difficult to fulfill. British poultry farmer Carlcott also said. He said if there were cases in his turkeys, it would be "devastating" and "seriously damage" his business.

According to British media statistics, the current UK free-range turkey herd has lost nearly 40%, which will put pressure on the market supply during the crucial Christmas period. In addition, as of the beginning of October, the price of eggs in French supermarkets has increased by about 15%~20% compared with the beginning of this year.

In Meng's view, if avian influenza in Europe persists, the impact may be further exacerbated. "On the one hand, eggs are the raw material used by many food companies, and the rise in egg prices will put pressure on downstream producers. At the same time, since France is the main source of eggs in the EU, the decline in the supply of eggs in France will also affect the entire EU region. In addition, it will also affect poultry trade with other countries and regions around the world. He said.

Courumbel, vice chairman of the French Egg Promotion Committee (CNPO), said: "You need a lot of eggs to make cakes or egg pasta, and some companies have started to change recipes or stop production lines. "A change in recipe could be a change in egg type, or a reduction in usage." More rarely, simply replace the eggs with other alternatives such as peas or milk proteins. ”

According to data from the European Commission, in January ~ August this year, the amount of poultry meat exported by the EU (excluding the United Kingdom) fell by 14% year-on-year to 841,000 tons.

In Meng's view, if European countries want to increase the supply of poultry meat and reduce the impact of avian influenza on the market in the future, vaccinating poultry is the most direct and effective way. "However, European and American countries still adopt the purification mode of culling and zeroing." He said.

Courumbel said: "We are in an unprecedented situation. In previous (bird flu) crises, we used to turn to imports, especially from the United States, but things have been bad everywhere this year. ”

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