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Japanese Prime Minister to Visit Macao and Intend to Sign the "New Security Declaration": Both as a "pawn" and seeking independence?

author:Shangguan News

From tomorrow, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will visit Australia and meet with Australian Prime Minister Albanese. Japanese and Australian media expect that the two sides will sign a new declaration on security cooperation to further strengthen security and economic cooperation among "quasi-allies".

As both "iron allies" of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan and Australia have a long desire to strengthen defense relations. The last declaration on safety and security was issued in 2007. After 15 years, against the background of intensifying great power games and surging undercurrents in the Asia-Pacific region, what are the highlights of Kishida's visit, what are the considerations of the two sides for deepening military binding, and what impact will it have on bilateral relations and the regional situation?

Take pains

This will be Kishida's first visit to Australia during his tenure and the first visit by a Japanese prime minister since 2018.

However, Kishida and Albanese, who just took up their new duties in May, are no strangers to each other. The two have met at least three times in the past five months, including the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue leaders' meeting in May, the NATO summit in June, and the funeral of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in September.

Unlike previous exchanges that focused on pleasantries, Japan said the two leaders would sit down face-to-face to discuss pressing issues such as security, energy and food.

Hosts, Australia, are struggling with their itinerary. Aides to the prime minister said it would be better to take the Japanese prime minister to Perth, Western Australia, than to Canberra or Melbourne.

The outside world believes that the Australian side chose to receive Kishida in the capital of Western Australia is particularly meaningful. The local advantages in resource endowment and geographical location will provide opportunities for the two countries to promote multi-field cooperation.

In terms of resources, Western Australia is an important mineral partner of Japan, with the local mining industry accounting for 42% of Australia's total exports to Japan, rich reserves of lithium, cobalt and rare earths, and leading mining technology. The state is also a source of Japanese imports of wheat and liquefied natural gas.

Perth is located west of the Indian Ocean and is home to Australia's largest naval base, leaving room for the imagination of the two countries to strengthen defense cooperation facing the Indian Ocean. Australian media said that Australia can show Western Australia's mature defense industry, and local companies can prepare to become defense contractors.

Chen Hong, director of the Australian Research Center of East China Normal University, pointed out that Kishida originally planned to visit Australia in January this year, but was postponed due to the new crown epidemic and other reasons. This gives new opportunities to Japan-Australia relations. Since Australia's new government took office in May, Prime Minister Albanese has visited Japan twice to create an atmosphere for advancing relations between the two countries. This time, the Australian side chose Perth as the meeting venue, which has both symbolic and practical significance. First, Australia believes that it is a country with important strategic interests in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and receiving Kishida in cities along the Indian Ocean is equivalent to declaring the cooperative relationship between Japan and Australia based on the "Indo-Pacific strategy". Second, Western Australia is a large state of iron ore and non-ferrous metals, and there are oil and gas fields along the coast, which is only an hour away from Japan, which can highlight the economic cooperation and geographical closeness between the two countries.

Take what you need

Perth's strength is just enough to make up for Tokyo's needs. According to Japanese media, Kishida's visit mainly has two key topics: security cooperation and energy supply.

First, the two countries intend to sign a new declaration on security guarantees and strengthen cooperation in the military field.

This is an update of the March 2007 Japan-Australia Joint Declaration on Security and Security, signed by then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Australian Prime Minister Howard, and is the first time Japan has signed such an agreement with a country other than the United States, focusing on counterterrorism and anti-piracy, and committing to strengthen Japan-Australia and U.S.-Japan-Australia cooperation.

Japanese and Australian media said the new declaration would be more "ambitious" than the 2007 version. At that time, only the development of North Korea's nuclear and missile was mentioned, and there was no reference to China. Today, time shifts. The new manifesto, "dealing with China," will emphasize a "free and open Indo-Pacific," and Japan will seek closer cooperation with the Five Eyes Alliance to gather and share intelligence.

It is also reported that the two leaders will discuss promoting the entry into force of the Reciprocal Access Agreement signed at the beginning of the year as soon as possible. The latter provides the legal framework for both sides to send troops to each other's countries, bringing relations to the level of "quasi-allies".

Secondly, the two countries will discuss energy cooperation issues, and Japan will seek a stable supply of Australian natural gas.

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the disruption of global supply chains has had an impact on Japan's energy security. Japan relies on Australia for more than a third of its LNG imports. The Japanese side believes that this visit is crucial to ensure that Australia continues to be a reliable energy supplier.

In addition, Japan may announce increased investment in Australia's hydrogen development to help the latter become a clean energy superpower.

Public opinion believes that Japan-Australia cooperation reflects the characteristics of each other, whether it is security or economy.

In terms of security, since the introduction of its first National Security Strategy in 2013, Japan has regarded the promotion of bilateral and multilateral defense cooperation with its allies and partners as one of the substantive means of "strengthening the military." It values Australia's geographical location and military resources, and wants to use the latter to better integrate into the Western world. The Australian side regards Japan as a strategic fulcrum for its pursuit of Asia policy and its status as a "middle power".

Although the Japanese ambassador to Australia boasted that the new security declaration is of "epoch-making" significance and will shape the relationship between the two countries in the next 10 years, some Australian scholars poured cold water on it and said that it may be more "window dressing". The addition of two new parts, intelligence sharing and greater interoperability, is not much new. Both were confirmed in previous documents, the latter is already advancing.

Economically, the two countries have maintained a "mutually accessible" relationship over the past few decades. Australia has almost everything about the natural resources that Japan lacks; Australia's automobile industry and other processing industries are relatively backward, and Japan has helped it. However, the two countries have different priorities for economic cooperation, with Kishida focusing on stable energy supplies and Australia emphasizing climate change in most statements. Some Australian media shouted to the prime minister: We cannot cowardly act as Japan's "gas station".

"Japan-Australia defense cooperation has become normal since 2007, when the Abe government actively promoted it." Lian Degui, director of the Center for Japanese Studies at Shanghai Chinese University, pointed out that behind this, the two countries have strengthened cooperation at the request of the United States, including the exchange of military forces and military intelligence, including under the framework of the "Quadrilateral Security Dialogue". A big excuse is naturally China. At the same time, the two countries also have an endogenous impetus to promote cooperation. First, it hopes to enhance the discourse power of regional affairs and seek strategic autonomy and defense independence. Japan wants to wean itself off a certain degree of diplomatic dependence on the United States. Second, it hopes to realize economic benefits. Japan wants to export armaments to Australia, for example, it has discussed the export of submarines. At present, Japan's economy is in trouble, energy prices are rising, prices are rising, and there is an urgent need to strengthen cooperation with Australia in energy, supply chain and economic security.

Chen Hong pointed out that the signing of a new security declaration between Japan and Australia deserves attention. When the declaration was signed in 2007, the two countries were moving closer in defense, but Australia still positioned China as a partner. Today, with the radical change in the positioning of the United States towards China, Japan and Australia have also deflected. So far, the anti-China tone of the new Australian government's foreign and security policy has been lowered, and it has also emphasized the China-Australia comprehensive strategic partnership, but in essence, it has not been corrected from the wrong perception of China, and the irrational and irrational factors of policy are still there. The new declaration is expected to continue to hype up the "China threat," or at least with targeted clichés, which may involve not only conventional cooperation, but also emergency preparedness and response. New developments are cause for alarm.

Common dilemma

In the eyes of some Japanese and Australians, the relationship has a more important cornerstone than complementarity: shared values.

Looking back at the development of Japan-Australia relations in the 60s of the last century, there was a popular saying in Australia - partners at 135 degrees east longitude. Japanese media said that this is the geographical common ground of the two countries, and also refers to the "south anchor" and "north anchor" of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region facing each other far away on the same meridian.

Public opinion believes that the reason why Japan-Australia relations have been able to develop by leaps and bounds since the signing of the "Basic Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation" in 1976 is inseparable from the common ground in identity, mentality and strategy of both sides. It cannot be ignored that the two countries are also in the same predicament as a result.

In terms of identity, they are all close allies and important helpers of the United States.

Mentally, both major countries in the region, both countries want to play an important regional role, but both feel lost in the changing global power. Japan is not willing to be sidelined in its traditional dominant position in Southeast Asia. Australia has always wanted to maintain its regional hegemony in the South Pacific.

Strategically, since the "ice-breaking" of Sino-US relations in 1972, Japan and Australia have adopted similar policies toward China, and their relations with China have been based on mutually beneficial cooperation. Over the past 20 years, both countries have benefited from China's rapid economic growth. China has been Australia's largest trading partner since 2010 and has been Japan's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years. Because of this, Japan and Australia have long tried to find some balance between the United States and China. But in recent years, Japan and Australia have deviated from the past and slowly fallen into trouble: dependent on the United States, under pressure from the United States, and worried that they cannot count on the United States in times of crisis.

Under difficult circumstances, with the support of Australian scholars, the "island alliance" may be an effective way to maximize the interests of the two countries.

Looking forward to the prospects of Japan-Australia cooperation, analysts said that under the background of the Biden administration's implementation of the strategy of great power competition and the creation of a complex regional alliance network, the pattern of "US-dominated alliance" has not fundamentally changed. The development of the "quasi-ally" relationship between the two countries still depends mainly on the United States' assessment of the regional security situation and the trend of the game of major powers.

"The United States remains the main driving force, and regional allies remain the 'pawns' of the United States." However, some people of insight in Australia, including business people, are not willing to follow hawkish political forces to serve as strategic pawns of the United States. Chen Hong pointed out that adopting an offensive defense policy does not match Australia's strategic position and economic strength, and will only push itself into a dangerous situation. This year marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Australia, and I hope that Australia can take this opportunity to change the irrational behavior that undermined bilateral relations in the past.

Lian Dejie pointed out that in view of the special strategic position of the two countries, strengthening defense cooperation between the two sides, including the exchange of information in an emergency, is of certain practical significance and will have a certain impact on the surrounding situation. But cooperation is a bilateral matter. What the outside world is really concerned about is not harming the interests of third parties and not stirring up peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

(Edit email: ylq@jfdaily.com)

Column editor-in-chief: Yang Liqun Text editor: Yang Liqun Title image source: Visual China Data picture Editor: Xiang Jianying

Source: Author: An Zheng

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