【Text/Observer Network columnist Cao Barbaric】
Although I see many people who think that Europe is already in recession, I have to say, not yet. It's just the eve of the storm. Most economists predict that a recession in Europe could begin in the winter of 2022/2023. At this moment, growing uncertainty is making Europeans more worried about their future.
Energy from Russia can be cut off at any time. While many European countries still have access to Russian oil and gas, its prices are rising and hitting record highs. In mid-August, natural gas prices topped $3,100 per 1,000 cubic meters, up 610 percent from the same period last year. Electricity prices in Europe have also soared by almost 300% this year. What's more, Russia recently announced that by the end of 2022, the price of gas will reach $5,000 for 1,000 cubic meters.
In addition to rising energy prices, various necessities are becoming more expensive. My mother said that she used to be able to buy a loaf of bread (about 600-900 grams) for one euro, but now she has to spend twice as much. She also told me that the price of bread in the news could eventually rise to 10 euros. Just as Chinese cannot survive without rice, Slovaks cannot live without bread, and most people have an unimaginable price for such a price.
Whose fault is the status quo in Europe?
Most politicians have now been blaming Russia for the state of affairs in Europe, but I personally do not blame Russia, I want to blame those European politicians. I'm not saying that what Russia is doing is good or fair, but I want to say that Europe should have been prepared for this a long time ago, and not that it is only now that it is starting to complain.
If European politicians had spent the last 10 years trying to diversify their sources of energy purchases and trying to find a way not to rely exclusively on Russian energy, Europe today would be more relaxed. The problem is that they didn't do it. Even people like Donald Trump are telling Europe that it should not be so dependent on Russia because it is very insecure for Europe. But they still ignored the warnings and placed all their bets on Russia.
Now, as the crisis continues, most Europeans are accusing the EU and its governments of the incompetence of the EU and its governments as they accuse Russia.
Recently, when I heard Putin's speech on "remobilization", everyone's nerves tensed again.
The German government announced that it welcomes all Russian men who wish to avoid joining the army, where they will be granted asylum if they decide to flee to Germany. In stark contrast, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia said that Russian men were not welcome to apply for asylum in their countries, and they even banned all Russians with EU visas from entering the country.
But the move still angered citizens of those countries, who pointed out that the government, despite rejecting Russians, was still offering asylum to Ukrainians and that they did not want more Ukrainian refugees to come. People say they are angry because the economic situation is getting worse. What is even more unsettling is that their own government does not take care of them, but only cares about Ukrainian refugees.
Ukrainian refugees await entry into Romania. Video screenshot
There is clearly no mobilization for war in Eastern Europe. In Slovakia, mothers say they refuse their sons to fight for NATO, which provoked war.
"Living with my parents"
Beyond the clouds of war, for the younger generation of Europeans, the long-term impact of the economic situation is even heavier. Even now, young Europeans struggle to find housing, and as prices rise, the situation will only get worse.
My brother told me that his friend had recently started building a house in my hometown, but he had to take a temporary break because the materials he needed were too expensive. Rent is also too expensive for young people. In Slovakia, the average monthly rent of an average apartment is about 500-600 euros, while the average salary of people is 1300 euros. While in Portugal, the average salary for young people is 900 euros, and the rental price of a studio apartment is 1000 euros on average.
The pandemic has had a particularly devastating impact on young workers, who are just starting out in the workforce, young workers who have dropped out of school, and recent graduates who are less experienced in losing their jobs at a significantly higher rate than older people. When Europeans learned to live with the coronavirus, the European economy was about to begin to recover, but now there is war ... Rising energy prices, inflation, and harder times for young people to find work are making more and more young Europeans choose to live with their parents. This means that they will not be able to marry and have children anytime soon, which will have a devastating effect on an aging Europe.
In Northern Europe, about 8 per cent of young people live with their parents, about 20 per cent in Western Europe, about 50 per cent in Eastern Europe and more than 70 per cent in Southern Europe. On this issue, the influence of cultural factors is also obvious. Nordic or Western Europeans are taught from an early age to be independent, and once you reach adulthood, living with your parents is often seen as shameful, so even if young people have a hard time paying rent, they feel they have no choice but to leave their childhood home and share a flat with roommates.
In Southern and Eastern Europe, people have a strong sense of family bonds and do not have to be separated from their families for shame. In Slovakia, too, almost 70 per cent of young people still live with their parents. So even though house prices are rising across Europe, young people in Southern and Eastern Europe will have a little easier time because they will be able to live with their parents and save some money. And young people in northern and western Europe can only find ways to take care of themselves.
My father often told me that he was happy that he was no longer young, and he really felt sorry for today's young people, because the world is getting worse every day, and young people are afraid that they will experience many difficulties in the future.
A young man works in a small supermarket in Annecy, France. Image from the United Nations website
Who can save Europe's youth?
As Europe's economy shrinks, youth unemployment is rising. Considering that the overall unemployment rate in European member states fell to 6% in July, 1% lower than the previous month and 9% lower than the same period in 2021, but youth unemployment is much higher. In July 2022, youth unemployment in the eurozone was 14%.
Unemployed and unemployed Europeans are entitled to unemployment benefits from the government, but young people who have just graduated or do not have a permanent job will not receive any benefits – for unemployment benefits, each country has different conditions that people must meet to be eligible for benefits.
In Slovakia, a person receives unemployment benefits if he has been employed and paid unemployment insurance for at least two of the last 4 years. This insurance is one percent of the employee's monthly income. For example, if a person earns 1000 euros, 10 euros are deducted from their salary, in addition to which the employer contributes the same amount (10 euros) to this insurance. If this insurance has been paid for at least two years, then a person is entitled to receive 50% of his previous salary within six months of becoming unemployed.
The poor economic situation is leading young Europeans to right-wing radicalism. In Europe, many have noticed a phenomenon in which neo-Nazism and nationalism are flourishing in almost all European countries. Today, people take this for granted because it has become too common to be sensitive!
Young people's support for communism is also on the rise. My dad is not young anymore, but he is always talking about the communist government of Slovakia in the past, and how well the people lived at that time.
He often recounted how the communist government took care of Slovak citizens and provided free housing for everyone, how cheap food, clothing, shelter and transportation were, and how the government assigned jobs if someone lost their job. He always told my younger siblings about this, so the children were being influenced by him.
It can be said that the deteriorating economic situation, the influence of the elderly who have experienced communism, and the elderly who continue to share the memories of a good life today are the driving force for the development of communism on the mainland. But since there are no sufficiently strong communist parties in Slovakia today, people who do not like capitalism and the current democratic system mostly turn to far-right parties, because these parties promise the people something very similar - a strong government that takes care of the people.
This phenomenon occurs not only in Slovakia, but throughout Europe. More and more young Europeans believe that these far-right parties are the only way for Europe to be saved in the future, which is why they fall for these radical parties and vote for them in the elections.
70,000 anti-government demonstrations erupt in Czech capital Prague to protest soaring energy prices (Twitter image)
epilogue
For now, the biggest worry for ordinary Europeans is the coming winter. I now live in Hangzhou, where the temperature is pleasant, but my country, Slovakia, has entered autumn. I looked at the weather forecast in my hometown, and the temperature dropped rapidly, around 15 degrees Celsius during the day and only about 7 degrees Celsius at night.
I talked to my mom over the weekend and she said they were already using gas to heat the house because they felt the chill. This makes me a little worried that this year's European winter may be particularly cold.
Currently, the government has announced a number of renewable energy projects, new pipelines are under construction, new LNG terminals are being built, and countries such as Germany are considering resuming nuclear power – something few would have thought of before. However, all these projects take time and all Europeans are preparing for tougher times.
This article is an exclusive contribution of Observer.com, the content of the article is purely the author's personal opinion, does not represent the views of the platform, unauthorized and shall not be reproduced, otherwise legal responsibility will be pursued. Follow the observer network WeChat guanchacn and read interesting articles every day.