"I've never been so scared." Sila Campello, a 68-year-old retired teacher in Brasilia, told The Washington Post. As election day approaches, the atmosphere in Brazil is becoming increasingly tense.
Brazil will hold presidential elections on October 2, with current President Bolsonaro from the far-right Liberal Party seeking re-election, but he faces a strong challenge from former president and left-wing Labour Party candidate Lula. Poll data shows that Lula's approval rating has been significantly ahead of Bolsonaro over the past few months.
Campello is a supporter of the Brazilian Workers' Party. She remembers that during previous elections, she and her family would wear red scarves and publicly show support for the PT. Today, Campello is very worried that he could be attacked by Bolsonaro supporters if he openly expresses his support for the PT.
The current presidential election is considered to be the most polarized and divisive in Brazil in recent years. Before the start of the election, there had been multiple incidents of political violence in Brazil, and there were many bloody clashes between Bolsonaro's supporters and Lula's supporters. Some analysts believe that if Bolsonaro loses the election, or "copy" the line of former US President Trump, he refuses to recognize the election results.
The election is coming, and whether there will be similar incidents in Brazil after the US 2020 election in which Trump supporters storm Capitol Hill has caused many concerns.
On July 24, 2022 local time, Rio, Brazil, the Brazilian Liberal Party officially announced the election of incumbent President Bolsonaro as the candidate for the 2022 presidential election. Photo/IC photo
Current president or lost to former president?
On October 2, local time, Brazil will hold a general election to elect a new president, vice president and representatives of the National Assembly. Elections for state governors, lieutenant governors and local councils will also be held at the same time.
In Brazil, every adult citizen has the obligation to vote. As a result, the Brazilian general election is one of the most contested elections in the world. Statistics previously released by Brazil's Supreme Electoral Court show that there are more than 156 million eligible voters in the country.
In this grand election, the most concerned is undoubtedly the presidential election. There are 11 candidates in Brazil's presidential election this year, but only two "old faces" have the "power of World War I" - the current president, Jail Bolsonaro, and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Bolsonaro, 67, is known as the "Trump of South America." He worked in Brazil's National Assembly for nearly 30 years before winning the 2018 presidential election and officially taking office on January 1, 2019, becoming Brazil's 38th president. Over the past three years or so, Bolsonaro has been controversial, with many critics particularly for his response to issues such as COVID-19, climate change, and the Amazon rainforest.
On September 23, 2022 local time, in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, Brazil's current president and presidential candidate Bolsonaro held a rally to build momentum. Photo/IC photo
Bolsonaro's main rival, Lula, 76, was Brazil's president from 2003 to 2010 and was the first worker-turned-president in Brazilian history. In 2017, Lula was jailed for corruption and was not released until November 2019. In 2021, Brazil's Federal Supreme Court ruled that all of Lula's convictions on suspicion of corruption were invalid, paving the way for Lula to run again in the presidential election.
Now, with another general election coming, current President Bolsonaro has met former President Lula. According to multiple analysts, after the election, the identities of the two may be reversed.
According to Reuters reported on September 27, the latest poll by Brazilian polling agency IPEC showed that in the first round of voting on October 2, Lula is expected to receive 48% of the vote, much higher than Bolsonaro's 31%. After the two enter the second round of voting, Lula is expected to win the election with 54% of the vote, while Bolsonaro is expected to get 35% of the vote.
Brazilian presidential elections are based on a two-round voting system. If no one receives more than 50 per cent of the votes cast in the first ballot, the top two candidates in the vote will advance to the second round of balloting. A second round of balloting is expected to take place on 30 October.
"Judging from the polling data, it is unlikely that Bolsonaro will win re-election." Zhou Zhiwei, a researcher at the Institute of Latin American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and executive director of the Brazilian Research Center, said in an interview with the Beijing News that Bolsonaro's approval rating remained at around 30%, while his opposition rate remained above 50%, "It can be seen that more than half of Brazilian pollsters participants do not recognize him." ”
The report card handed over by Bolsonaro's government over the past three years or so has not been ideal. Zhou Zhiwei pointed out that the Brazilian people's overall recognition of Bolsonaro's overall governance is not high, whether it is the response to the new crown epidemic or the economic and people's livelihood issues, Bolsonaro's performance is not satisfactory. On the contrary, the intensification of social contradictions in Brazil, the prominent problem of poverty and unemployment, and the sharp contradictions between Bolsonaro himself and the legislative and judicial systems have made it difficult for him to win the general election again.
In fact, Brazil's opposition to Bolsonaro is one of the important reasons why Lula may win. Zhou Zhiwei said that the approval ratings of Bolsonaro and Lula have always been relatively stable, which means that both have a stable basic set. At the same time, both have some controversy and opposition. In this context, the final victory or defeat may depend on who has the higher base and who has the lower opposition rate.
On August 16, 2022 local time, Brazil's Sao Bernardo do Campo, Brazil's former president and labor party candidate Lula held a campaign rally. Photo/IC photo
The Association of the Americas/Council for the Americas (AS/COA) poll data shows that since last November, Lula has led the presidential election, with support rating between 40% and 43%. Bolsonaro is close behind, with approval ratings between 25% and 37%. The remaining candidates have a support rating of less than 10%, and there is basically no possibility of overshooting.
In Zhou Zhiwei's view, this Brazilian presidential election may be over. Lula's public opinion has always been about 10 percent higher than Bolsonaro's, and as Election Day approaches, he has taken a series of steps to win support for himself, including convincing several former presidential candidates to canvassed for him, stepping up social media campaigns, and winning public support from many Internet celebrities.
"Lula's goal is very clear, to win the general election in the first round of voting, and these moves he has taken should be able to sweep some of the final votes for him." Zhou Zhiwei said. According to Reuters, IPEC polling data shows that if absentee and invalid votes are excluded, Lula's vote is expected to reach 52%, directly winning the election.
On September 25, 2022, local time, Rio, Brazil, the Brazilian general election is approaching, and former Brazilian President Lula attended the campaign rally. Photo/IC photo
Will there be post-election riots in Brazil?
The election has not yet begun, and many people have begun to worry about the chaos that may arise after the election.
On July 9, local time, a homicide occurred in the southern Brazilian city of Foz do Iguaçu. According to the Washington Post, local police officer Marcelo Aruda held a Lula-themed birthday party that day. He wears a black shirt and a mask on his face that he supports presidential candidate Lula.
Who knew that tragedy suddenly came. A man named Guaraño came to his birthday party and sang the praises of another presidential candidate, Bolsonaro. Aruda and Guaraño engaged in a fierce verbal clash, with Guaraño leaving the party, returning shortly afterwards and shooting Arruda.
Guaraño has been charged with intentional homicide and is expected to appear on trial in the near future. His lawyer said Guaraño was badly injured in the head and he could not remember what had happened.
The murder of Aruda is considered a landmark event in this "deadly election". But this is not the only one of political violence related to the election.
In August, a man was shot dead inside a church in the central Brazilian city of Goiânia over the publication of a brochure by his supporters of Bolsonaro calling for no vote for left-wing parties. A few weeks later, a Bolsonaro supporter stabbed his own colleague to death after his colleague defended Lula during the argument. A man walked into a bar in Cascaville on Sept. 24 and asked who planned to vote for Lula. A 39-year-old man said he would vote for Lula before being stabbed to death.
On September 28, 2022 local time, in the state of São Paulo in Brazil, Brazilian President Bolsonaro held a campaign rally. Photo/IC photo
"Traditionally, Brazil is not a country where political violence is particularly common, it pursues integration and inclusiveness on ideological and ethnic issues." Zhou Zhiwei pointed out. But he also noted that political violence in Brazil has increased in recent years. "This reflects the intensification of political confrontation in Brazil and the increasing polarization of politics."
In recent years, global populism has risen, and the Brazilian election can be said to be an important case of political ecological change in Latin America and even the world. "Brazil's populism on both the left and the right is on the rise, which has led to an extreme rift in Brazilian politics, and the confrontation between the two forces has become more and more obvious." Zhou Zhiwei said.
The Washington Post pointed out that far-right current President Bolsonaro and left-wing former President Lula are two of the most polarized figures in Brazilian politics, and the two fought in this year's general election, which directly led to the election becoming the most divided and polarized election in Brazil in recent years.
According to tracking data from Brazil's Political and Electoral Violence Observatory, there have been at least 214 incidents of political violence against election officials, candidates, public servants, etc. in Brazil this year, an increase of 23% over 2020. Bolsonaro himself had a similar experience. In September 2018, Bolsonaro was assassinated during a campaign campaign and suffered multiple injuries to his abdomen. Since then, he has undergone surgery many times.
In response to the frequent violence, Lula once said: "There was a completely abnormal atmosphere of hatred during the election process. Bolsonaro previously declined to condemn the murders against Aruda, but as the violence has mounted, he also said he deeply regretted the politically driven deaths. He stressed, however, that he should not be condemned for those violent incidents.
However, some analysts believe that many of Bolsonaro's remarks are intensifying contradictions in Brazil. In particular, his comments questioning Brazil's electronic voting system have raised concerns among many observers about violent riots following the election.
Bolsonaro has previously said he would accept the election regardless of the outcome, provided it was "clean and transparent." However, he has repeatedly slammed Brazil's electronic voting system, saying it is flawed and easy to manipulate, leading to election fraud. Although in practice, there is no evidence that Brazil's electronic voting system caused election fraud.
On September 23, 2022, local time, Porto Alegre, Brazil, the Brazilian general election is approaching, and election workers are preparing electronic voting machines. Photo/IC photo
Guilherme Casaroes, a political scientist in São Paulo, Brazil, told Al Jazeera that Bolsonaro's repeated distrust of the election process meant he would not be willing to accept the election results, and his supporters would not accept the results of Lula's victory. "It can be said that the road ahead is very difficult."
In Zhou Zhiwei's view, after the election results come out, if Bolsonaro loses, he may still adhere to some of his previous positions, such as alleging fraud in the election. However, Brazil is unlikely to see violence similar to the January 6, 2021 protests in the United States.
Zhou Zhiwei analyzed it from multiple angles. First, the party's support for him behind Bolsonaro is not as strong as Republican support for Trump; Secondly, Bolsonaro's relationship with the judiciary and the legislature has always been relatively tense, and he has attacked the Brazilian electoral system, so the Brazilian Electoral Court and the Supreme Court have been guarding against some extreme acts by Bolsonaro; In addition, Bolsonaro was unable to win the military's response. "So all in all, I think Bolsonaro will stick to what he said if he loses, but it won't be too bad."
However, Brazil's trend towards polarization cannot be ignored. Casaroes said Brazil faces an unprecedented polarization and that if Lula wins the presidency as predicted in the polls, he "will face a huge challenge — healing the country's wounds."
Latin America "turning left" further?
Lula's return to the Brazilian presidency may also push the Latin American region to "turn to the left" further.
CNBC pointed out that Latin America is experiencing a "pink wave" (the phenomenon of left-wing parties coming to power in several Latin American countries). In recent years, many of the region's left-wing leaders have won elections, including Mexico, Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Honduras and others.
In December 2021, Gabriel Boric, a candidate for the Chilean Left Alliance "in favour of dignity", won a historic victory in that year's general election, defeating José Antonio Caster, a candidate of the right-wing party coalition "Christian Social Front", and successfully elected Chile's new president.
In June of the following year, Gustavo Pedro, a candidate of the Colombian Left Alliance "Union of the Colombian Historical Pact", defeated the independent candidate Rudolf Hernandez and was elected the new president of Colombia and the first left-wing president in Colombian history.
"Even before the Brazilian election, the trend of Latin America turning to the left was already very clear. If Lula wins, it will mean that Latin America's largest economy will also turn to the left, which will undoubtedly create a broader regional effect that will push for the collective expansion of the Latin American left. Zhou Zhiwei said.
On September 25, 2022, local time, Rio, Brazil, the Brazilian general election is approaching, and former Brazilian President Lula attended the campaign rally. Pictured is Lula's supporters. Photo/IC photo
In a way, this is the second time there has been a "pink wave" in Latin America. The first Latin American "pink wave" occurred in the early 2000s, when Lula happened to be the president of Brazil. Left-wing parties in Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, Bolivia, Nicaragua and other countries have also come to power, consolidating this wave of left-wing governance in Latin America.
However, by the second half of the second decade of the 21st century, as the economic and social difficulties of various countries intensified, the "pink wave" in Latin America gradually receded, and the right-wing forces in many countries rose. In 2018, the rise to power of the far-right representative Bolsonaro marked the expansion of right-wing forces in Latin America.
Now, Latin America is starting to turn left again. Zhou Zhiwei analyzed that during the new crown epidemic in recent years, it was precisely a cycle of right-wing politics in Latin America. During this cycle, many Latin American countries have experienced serious governance problems, which may be a direct reason for Latin America's right-to-left turn.
"In addition, whether it is Brazil or the entire Latin American region, the lower middle class has always been the dominant class. However, under the impact of the new crown epidemic, the economic development of many countries has been hindered and the poverty rate of the people has risen, which has further strengthened the power of the middle and lower classes. It also provides a very positive environment for the return of the left, because the left party pursues equality and justice. Zhou Zhiwei pointed out.
However, this wave is not exactly the same as the wave of 20 years ago. Ana Mauad, assistant professor at the Catholic University of Javigliana in Colombia, believes that the current phenomenon of left-wing governments in many Latin American countries cannot be called a "new pink wave", because most of these newly elected left-wing leaders have taken climate policy and gender issues as the core of the campaign, and most of the first wave of power is some charismatic leaders who take regional industrialization and economic development as the core.
In Brazil, for example, during Lula's presidency from 2003 to 2010, the Brazilian economy grew at an average annual rate of 4.3%, returning Brazil to the top ten in the world economy.
As the global environment changes, the challenges for a new generation of left-wing governments are bound to be different. Zhou Zhiwei said that this time the return of the Latin American left wing may promote the integration of the region. "There are many endogenous problems in Latin America, such as weak economic ties with each other, and most countries are too dependent on external markets rather than Latin American internal markets." Zhou Zhiwei said, "After the return of the left wing, it will have a stronger sense of collective autonomy and emphasize unity and self-improvement to promote regional development." ”
At the diplomatic level, Zhou Zhiwei believes that the return of the left wing may promote the strengthening of diplomatic diversification in the region. For example, the region may re-strengthen cooperation with developing countries, including the Asia-Pacific region and China. In its relations with the United States, the region may pursue more autonomous and egalitarian relationships.
Latin America's leftward shift continues, and whether Brazil will actually join the wave remains to be verified by the October election.
Beijing News reporter Xie Lian
Edited by Zhang Lei Proofreader Li Lijun