"Semi-high-speed rail" pulls India's "high-speed rail dream", analysts: India's "high-speed rail economy" is currently uncertain

Source: Global Times

India plans to launch the second generation of locally manufactured "semi-high-speed rail" on September 30 - the "Salute to India 2" with a speed of 180 kilometers per hour, combined with the launch of the "Salute to India No. 1" with an operating speed of 160 kilometers per hour in 2019 and the Mumbai-Ahmedebad high-speed railway under construction with a planned speed of 320 kilometers per hour, and the "high-speed rail economy" built by India is entering the fast lane. However, analysts believe that although India has high hopes for the "high-speed rail economy", the investment and land acquisition links in the construction of high-speed rail at this stage still face no small challenges.

"Semi-high-speed rail" with a speed of 180 kilometers per hour

According to the Times of India, Indian Railways Minister Ashvini Vishner said that the latest version of India's home-made "semi-high-speed rail" train launched by the Indian Ministry of Railways will be opened on September 30, and Indian Prime Minister Modi will participate in the opening ceremony held in Gandhi Nagel, Gujarat. Indian Railways officials said the new version of the "semi-high-speed" train, named "Salute to India 2", has completed a 20-day trial run in early September and obtained safety certification from the railway department, after which three to four trains of the model are expected to be in operation.

Compared with the current operating version, the new version of the "semi-high-speed rail" train is faster. According to the Minister of Railways of India, the 100-kilometer acceleration time of "Salute to India 2" has been shortened to 52 seconds, while the current operation of "Salute to India 1" has a 100-kilometer acceleration time of 54.6 seconds. The top speed of "Salute to India 1" is 160 kilometers per hour, while the video released by the Indian media shows that "Salute India 2" can run at a stable speed of 180 kilometers per hour. The weight of the "Tribute to India No. 2" train has been reduced from 430 tons in the previous generation to 392 tons, equipped with Wi-Fi, adjustable seats, a larger TV screen, 15% energy-saving air conditioning and air filtration system, toilets, cabs, etc. have also been upgraded, and sleeper cars will be set up in the future. India's Ministry of Railways expects the locally manufactured "semi-high-speed rail" to reach a speed of 220 kilometers per hour in 2025 and finally the fastest 260 kilometers per hour, which is the same as the speed of high-speed rail in Europe.

The Salute to India No. 1 train opened for commercial operation in February 2019. At present, India's 160-kilometer high-speed rail can only operate on two routes, from New Delhi to Varanasi and from New Delhi to Kashmir. According to India's Mint newspaper, the total cost of the Mumbai-Ahmedabad high-speed rail project is 108 trillion rupees (about 95.5 billion yuan), the central government of India pays 100 billion rupees, Gujarat and Maharashtra each pay 500 billion rupees, and the rest use Japanese low-interest loans. India's Minister of Railways said that the high-speed rail project is currently being carried out in an orderly manner.

India's desire to build a high-speed rail network to drive the high-speed rail economy has a long history. But Indian railways have historically been criticized for their slow speed and insecurity. Therefore, the initial goal of the Indian Railways Department is to increase the number of existing trains with a top speed of 85 km to 150 km/h. In 2010, India received a train speed of 160 kilometers per hour, and in 2016 opened the "Gadiman Train" from New Delhi to Agra, which was the fastest train in India at that time.

This has greatly boosted the confidence of Indians. India's railway network has been under construction for more than 160 years, with 12,000 trains running every day and transporting 23 million people, comparable to Australia's population. But these rail infrastructures are relatively backward, with government data showing that more than 60 percent of the railway lines exceed operational capacity. Sanger, co-founder of the Indian Railways Fan Club, said that in the past 50 years, India's rail capacity has grown significantly, but demand has grown much faster than capacity growth.

As a result, India began bidding in 2015 for the construction of a truly modern high-speed train, but in the end there was no bidding. At the beginning of 2017, India switched to building local "semi-high-speed rail" trains, with 80% of the parts made locally and 20% imported. The train takes 18 months from start to finish.

However, because India's current rail track system is not enough to support true high-speed trains, the actual operating speed of the "semi-high-speed rail" currently running is about 130 km, with a maximum operating speed of 150 km. In addition, India's "semi-high-speed rail" accidents are frequent, and more than 5,500 cattle collisions have been recorded in 2019 alone, and even the "Salute to India" was forced to stop operation the next day because of the cattle collision.

"Leverage" Japan to achieve its ambitions

Despite the difficulties, India is determined to build a multi-model "semi-high-speed rail" and high-speed rail network to put the "high-speed rail economy" on the right track.

India's "Mint News" reported that India's "bullet high-speed rail project" will have a revolutionary impact on Indian tourism. According to an Indian Ministry of Railways official, India's high-speed rail will use the E5 Shinkansen trains currently in operation in Japan. Japan initially produced six high-speed trains to India for testing, correcting them according to local climate and other conditions. The carbon footprint of high-speed trains is much lower than that of cars of the same capacity. High-speed trains could also reverse the current trend of over-expansion in India's major cities. India's railway minister said India aims to run the first bullet train between Surat and Bilimora in Gujarat by 2026.

An August 2021 report by India's National Center for Policy Studies specifically examines the economic benefits of the high-speed rail. The report argues that since World War I, the Indian railways have been an important part of the country's economy and a key force for India's development and progress. India currently has the third largest rail network in the world and the largest number of railway employees in the world. At the same time, India has a tradition of pursuing indigenous railway technology.

Despite great achievements, India has never had a true high-speed railway. The highly anticipated Mumbai-Ahmedbad bullet train project is expected to change that. India hopes to promote the technological, social and economic progress of Indian railways.

The technology for the project will be supplied by Japan, and trains will be manufactured in India in the later stages. The total cost of the project is expected to be $15 billion, with Japan providing 81% financing. The project is currently in the process of land acquisition and construction. It was originally scheduled to be completed and opened to traffic in 2023, but at the current schedule, it may be completed and opened to traffic as early as 2027. India hopes the project will boost connectivity in less developed regions, boost infrastructure and reduce carbon emissions. At the same time, the project will promote the development of India's high-speed rail technology and train India's high-speed rail talent team. During construction, the project is expected to require at least 20,000 engineers.

Difficulties abound, the future is uncertain

As a developing country with a large population, India has a strong desire to develop its economy. In terms of transportation infrastructure construction, India has been paying attention to the successful experience of China's high-speed rail. Chen Lijun, vice president of the Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences and the China (Kunming) Institute of South Asian and Southeast Asian Studies, said in an interview with the Global Times: "India was pushing ahead with its high-speed rail plan before Modi came to power. But overall, India's economic development gives the impression that the goals are ambitious, but they are very difficult to implement. Chen Lijun believes that India has been promoting the construction of high-speed rail and planning a networked development plan, but at present, the future of India's "high-speed rail economy" is uncertain.

First of all, it is extremely difficult for high-speed rail to acquire land. Chen Lijun said: "Although Modi is implementing land law and labor law, it is still very difficult to acquire land. Chen Lijun believes that there is a game relationship between the central and local governments in India, the interests of Indian states are not consistent with the central government of India, the construction of a high-speed railway involves multiple states, and it is very difficult for the central government of India to coordinate as a whole.

Another difficulty in advancing India's high-speed rail plan is the lack of funds. Chen Lijun believes that the imbalance of international payments has led to India's financial abundance, especially the construction of high-speed rail requires strong funds as a guarantee, "high-speed rail operation is also a huge project with high cost and low returns, which puts forward a strict test for India's financial strength." ”

Some analysts believe that in the case of the increasingly strong dollar index, India itself is facing the risk of capital outflow, and it is more difficult to attract external funds into the construction of high-speed rail. The strong appreciation of the US dollar has led to an increase in India's external debt burden, which will also hinder the Indian government from spending more funds on the construction of high-speed rail. In addition, the Indian economy is also facing high inflation.