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Who did it? The "Nord Stream" pipeline has broken down three times in succession, and there are different opinions from all sides

author:Globe.com

Source: Global Times

Editor's note: The "Nord Stream-2" and "Nord Stream-1" natural gas pipelines in the waters near Denmark broke down three times in a row on the 26th, accompanied by huge explosion vibrations, and almost all investigations admitted that "this is almost impossible to be a coincidence" and "the possibility of destruction is not ruled out." But there are divergent accounts of who and by what methods the damage may have been inflicted.

Who did it? The "Nord Stream" pipeline has broken down three times in succession, and there are different opinions from all sides
Who did it? The "Nord Stream" pipeline has broken down three times in succession, and there are different opinions from all sides

"Unlikely to be a fault"

Denmark said that on the 26th local time, the "Nord Stream-2" natural gas pipeline leaked near the Danish island of Bornholm. Soon after, two more leak points were discovered in the Nord Stream-1 pipeline, located in waters near Denmark and Sweden. On-site monitoring footage shows that a large number of bubbles have formed on the sea surface at the scene of the accident. The Swedish Maritime Safety Agency warned nearby vessels to keep a 5-nautical distance from the site of the leak because of the flammability of natural gas, which carries the risk of fire and combustion.

The particularity of these three leakage accidents has aroused great concern from the outside world. The Guardian said that in order to withstand the enormous pressure when transporting natural gas, the two sets of "Nord Stream" pipes are designed to be very strong: they are usually constructed of 27-41 mm thick steel casings, and there is a special coating of 60-110 mm thick on the outside, so a conventional failure is unlikely to cause serious damage to them. Ekaterina Kosalyva, an expert at WMT Consulting in Russia, stressed that the leak is unlikely to be caused by a seam failure. Because such failures do not cause the internal pressure to drop to zero, it is difficult to occur in 3 places at the same time. In addition, the explosion is unlikely to be related to the bombs left over from World War II. "Before the pipeline is laid on the seabed, the exploration work is first carried out, then the water clearance, including demining, and finally the laying."

At the same time as the spill, the Swedish seismic monitoring station recorded significant tremors, one of which had a magnitude of 2.3. Seismic stations in Denmark, Norway and Finland also recorded the explosions. Lund, director of Sweden's National Seismic Network, said, "There is no doubt that this is not an earthquake. Danish experts described it as "as powerful as the explosion of a giant bomb in World War II." Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that the possibility of the "Nord Stream" pipeline accident was a sabotage activity.

What tools may have been used?

Is there any way to wreak havoc on the underwater "Nord Stream" pipeline? According to the Guardian, the Baltic sea depth through which the two "Nord Stream" pipelines pass is usually only a few tens to more than 100 meters. For modern navies, operating at such depths is not difficult. The German security services believe that, given the specifics of the leak, it is likely that "divers or small submarines" have installed mines or explosives on the pipes, which "only state actors" can do. Some Western experts believe that since the precise location of the "North Stream" pipeline is not a secret, the saboteur can set up a timed sunken mine and release it to a predetermined position on the seabed when the ship passes through the sea above the target. A British military source speculated that the mine may have been quietly laid from a camouflaged merchant ship and detonated days or weeks later. "This is an operation that requires caution, but does not require particularly specialized military resources."

The Russians have come to a similar conclusion. Russia's "Point of View" said on the 28th that Russian military Sergei Ishchenko said that the difficulty of destroying underwater natural gas pipelines is not high, "from the side of any ship can be set to set the explosion depth and time of self-propelled mines dropped." It can be released from warships or submarines, which are very ideal carriers. ”

Russian military expert Vadim Kojulin believes that although underwater frogmen can theoretically carry out such sabotage activities, given the depth of the sea where the "North Stream" pipeline is located, special ships must be deployed near the explosion site so that the divers on the mission can decompress. In this case, it is almost impossible to cover up the sabotage, and at the same time it is impossible to quickly flee the scene. Therefore, he believes that the incident is more likely to be detonated by a disposable unmanned underwater vehicle. "Now, many countries are developing hundreds of submersibles, including those suitable for similar missions. Most of them have AI systems, so they can be sabotaged even in offline mode, and it's hard to pinpoint the culprits. ”

Who did it?

Although Russia and the West are basically in agreement on how to destroy the Nord Stream pipeline, the two sides blame each other on who is the culprit. According to the US "Power" website, observers have previously paid attention to Russia's ability to attack submarine pipes or cables. "The Russian Navy has a large number of special-mission submarines, deep-sea submersibles and unmanned underwater vehicles, which in addition to listening and cutting submarine communication cables, may also be used to disrupt gas pipelines." The report also mentioned that the special nuclear submarine "Belgorod" that was in service not long ago can carry a variety of submersible vehicles to perform complex undersea operations. "But the boat is currently operating in the White Sea, and the water depth of the Baltic Sea is too shallow to be suitable for the activities of such a large nuclear submarine." Germany's Der Spiegel magazine said the CIA had warned Germany that the Baltic gas pipeline could be attacked earlier this summer.

However, the Russian Navy's underwater operation capability cited by the US media is also owned by the West. Vladimir Gondarov, a Russian military expert, said it was the British who were most likely to destroy the Nord Stream pipeline. "The British Navy's Special Forces base is located in Norway, and they have all the special equipment needed for underwater operations, possibly long-range detonating explosives through unmanned underwater vehicles."

The Opinion said there were some indirect indications that the U.S. Navy was involved in the incident. Because U.S. President Joe Biden issued a statement after meeting with German Chancellor Chancellor Sorzi in early February this year: "If Russian tanks and troops cross the border, then the Nord Stream-2 will not exist and we will end it." When asked how to do it, Biden emphasized: "We can do it." On June 14, the U.S. Maritime Power magazine revealed that the U.S. Navy's anti-mine forces are using unmanned underwater vehicles near the Danish island of Bornholm, "close to the subsea gas pipeline."

At the time of the accident, the U.S. Navy was holding exercises nearby. Russian media noted that starting on September 2, the US Navy MH-60S helicopters began to fly intensively over two underwater gas pipelines east of Bornholm Island. "The United States may be rehearsing how to put explosives on the bottom of the sea." U.S. helicopters have been flying over the pipeline until Sept. 13. The U.S. Navy ships left the area where the pipeline was located on the evening of the 21st. "A few days later the Swedish seismograph recorded a huge explosion."