laitimes

Immigrants became political pawns, and party rivalry intensified in the United States before the midterm elections

author:Beijing News

In mid-September, nearly 100 immigrants appeared outside the home of U.S. Vice President Harris.

The immigrants departed from Texas by bus and drove all the way to Harris's residence at the Washington, D.C. Naval Observatory.

The trip to this immigration was arranged by Texas Governor Albert. Since early April, Texas and Arizona have offered free buses to transport thousands of migrants across the border to places like Washington and New York. The move was also interpreted by the two states as a political ploy to deal with border migration.

Recently, Harris, who was appointed by US President Biden to oversee immigration affairs at the U.S. border, still claims "border security" in the face of record immigration. Upon saying this, Albert went straight to Harris. "We sent the migrants to her backyard just to call on the Biden administration to do its job of securing the border."

In the days that followed, the two parties again quarreled over immigration. Albert criticized the Biden administration for ignoring the crisis. Democrats have fought back against irresponsibility in transporting immigrants, accusing Republicans of using immigrants as pawns for political manipulation.

It is worth noting that in 6 weeks, the United States is about to usher in the midterm elections. Some analysts pointed out that the Republican Party's hype on the immigration issue at this time is precisely to use this as a gimmick to increase its attention in the midterm election, so as to suppress the Democratic Party and win votes.

The election was also seen as a "midterm exam" for the Biden administration. Today, Democrats control the House of Representatives and have a slim advantage in the Senate. The answers handed over by the Democratic Party will directly affect the efficiency of the Biden administration in the next two years.

An unexpected journey

Expecting to board a plane to Boston, Ardenis Nazareth arrived at his destination and was surprised to find himself on an island.

The island, called Martha's Vineyard Island, is a holiday destination for many Democrats in the U.S. state of Massachusetts, where former U.S. President Barack Obama still has properties.

More than a year ago, Nazares left his native Venezuela to try to make a living in Peru and Chile, but never made ends meet. In order to earn money to support his family's two young daughters, he decided to go to the United States to try his luck. For months, Nazares and his friends crossed the raging Rio Grande before setting foot on the U.S. border in mid-September on Texas soil.

Wandering near the San Antonio Asylum, Nazares is still thinking about his next decision. At this point, a well-dressed woman who identified herself as Perla approached him, handed him gift cards from many fast-food restaurants for Nazares and other immigrants, and offered them a tempting offer: free flights to shelters in Massachusetts.

According to Nazares's recollection to the New York Times, about 50 of them arrived at Martha's Vineyard Island, but no one really knew the destination of the trip, many people like Nazares thought they were going to Boston, and some people thought they were going to New York. Until the pilots announced that they would land on Martha's Vineyard, the migrants were stunned.

Officials at Martha's Vineyard were also not informed of the plane's whereabouts in advance, and volunteers had to hastily deliver food, water and clothing they needed, and the migrants were temporarily placed in churches, the island's only shelter, due to limited housing options. A few days later, they boarded another bus and headed to a makeshift shelter at Joint Base Cape Cod.

Subsequently, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis admitted that he had arranged the flight for the immigrants. It's just that, according to him, the immigrants go voluntarily. He also stressed that the Florida legislature has allocated $12 million to transport immigrants out of Florida, and there will be more flights and buses to transport immigrants in the future.

Immigrants became political pawns, and party rivalry intensified in the United States before the midterm elections

On September 21, 2022, local time, in El Paso, Texas, a new Mobile Processing Center (MERC) was established in the local city center for the U.S. Border Patrol to quickly deal with the steady stream of immigrants seeking asylum at the border. Photo/IC photo

The successive operations of Republican governors transporting immigrants have caused great dissatisfaction among Democrats. White House spokeswoman Karina Jean-Pierre accused de Santis and Albert of being a cruel political gimmick, using immigrants as "political pawns."

Immigrants embroiled in bipartisan feuds have also begun to fight back. On September 20, local time, the migrants who were shipped to Martha's Vineyard filed a class-action lawsuit against Desantis and other officials involved in planning the flight.

Generally, after an immigrant enters a processing procedure with federal authorities and is released from detention, he or she can move freely around during the advancement of the immigration court proceedings. The New York Times pointed out that from this point of view, whether it is Texas or Florida, the state government pays for the travel and sends immigrants elsewhere is not illegal.

But the key point of immigration prosecution is that Florida officials have accused them of "fraud and discrimination."

The complaint, filed in federal court in Boston, alleges that Florida officials "induced" immigrants to board planes from Texas, falsely promising them that they would have "job opportunities, educational resources and immigration assistance" when they arrived at their destination.

In response to the lawsuit, Desantis spokeswoman Tarin Finsk reiterated that immigrants are on the plane voluntarily. She also published a "consent form" signed by immigrants before boarding.

Even if a "consent form" is signed, the contents of the "consent form" will be invalid once fraud is proved. At the heart of this lawsuit may focus on the content of the previous negotiations between Florida and immigrants. Aleksander Cuic, an immigration lawyer and professor at Case Western Reserve Law School, said the government regularly relocates detained immigrants across the country, as do Florida officials or argue their own actions. "The biggest question is what they were told and whether there was any form of fraud or inducement."

Record number of immigrants

The same day the immigrants filed the class-action lawsuit, news broke that DeSantis had arranged for a plane carrying the migrants to Biden's native state of Delaware. Although the plane did not appear in the end, the rumor attracted a large number of media reporters to the airport to shoot the report.

While the news isn't true, Texas, Florida and Arizona have been sending tens of thousands of immigrants to Democratic-led "blue areas" like Washington and New York for months. As of September, Albert had spent at least $12 million on transporting migrants, and DeSantis had spent more than $1.5 million on flight transportation alone, according to the Texas Tribune.

Explaining his motivation for transporting migrants, DeSantis said, "When Trump was president of the United States, everyone in Washington and New York patted their chests and told how proud they were to be sanctuary jurisdictions (i.e., areas with policies to help illegal immigrants), but as long as border towns brought a little bit of day-to-day handling to their doorstep, they would go crazy." ”

This seems to be the case.

Places like Washington and New York, which have accepted immigrants, have been overwhelmed. In early September, Washington Mayor Baunt declared a public health emergency and allocated $10 million to set up an immigration services office to coordinate immigration issues. New York Mayor Adams also said more than 11,000 immigrants have arrived in New York and that New York's asylum system has collapsed.

Immigrants became political pawns, and party rivalry intensified in the United States before the midterm elections

On September 21, 2022, local time, in Juarez, the northern border of Mexico, members of the Mexican rescue team found a migrant body in the Rio Grande on the U.S.-Mexico border. Photo/IC photo

Behind this farce is the surge in immigration numbers in border states. On September 19, local time, federal government officials released data saying that in the past 11 months, the US government has arrested more than 2 million immigrants at the southern border between the United States and Mexico, setting a new record. The number of immigrants dying this year as a result of trying to cross the border into the United States is also at an all-time high.

Border states are taking direct aim at the immigration policies of the Biden administration. In his first year in office, Biden issued 296 executive orders for immigration, including raising the refugee cap and increasing the refugee resettlement program. In June, the U.S. Supreme Court also ruled that the Biden administration could repeal the Trump administration's "Immigration Protection Agreement," which requires transboundary migrants to return to Mexico to await the outcome of their asylum claims.

The Biden administration's more liberal immigration policy has its own political considerations. Wang Yong, professor at the School of International Relations at Peking University and director of the Center for American Studies, said in an interview with the Beijing News that the Biden administration's lax immigration policy is on the one hand due to the needs of the actual labor force in the United States, on the other hand, minorities and new immigrants generally tend to be Democratic Party members, and the Democratic Party also wants to win their votes.

Democrats dominate immigration policy, but border states led by Republican governors face real immigration problems. Liu Weidong, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out to the Beijing News reporter that the differences between the two parties in the United States on the issue of immigration are extremely obvious, and the Republican Party believes that the Democratic Party advocates loose policies on its lips, but does not need to bear the pressure of illegal immigration, so many Republican governors have begun to transport immigrants and let the Democratic Party clean up the mess. In terms of numbers, the delivery of immigrants will not have a role in reducing pressure on the border, and the Republican Party just wants to amplify the matter. Before the midterm elections, the issue of immigration was used to mobilize Republican voters.

Immigration is crowded into the midterm election agenda

In fact, immigration is not the primary concern of current American voters.

According to the latest polls by National Radio (NPR), inflation is the biggest concern for voters in the upcoming midterm elections. In addition, since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the issue of reproductive rights has shaken the electoral landscape to some extent. In recent weeks, Democrats from Connecticut to California have used the Roe v. Wade verdict as an opportunity to campaign.

The Republican Party may be in a worse position than expected. The Washington Post pointed out that due to the abortion decision of the US Supreme Court, Trump's judicial disputes, and the far-right tendencies of candidates, although holding the "economic card", the Republican Party's slogan in the midterm election is obviously not enough.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party once again threw the "immigration card." According to the Boston Herald, the Republican Party hopes to seize the opportunity of the immigration crisis to put the Democratic Party at a disadvantage, so that immigration issues like abortion rights and inflation will become the main issues driving voters.

This move may coincide with the dissatisfaction of voters. A NBC poll in September showed that only 36 percent of Americans support the Biden administration's approach to border security and immigration. A joint NPR-Ipsos poll also confirmed that 54 percent of Americans believe there is indeed an illegal immigrant "invasion" at the southern border.

Immigrants became political pawns, and party rivalry intensified in the United States before the midterm elections

On September 8, 2022, local time, Delio, Texas, the United States, a large number of migrants lined up in front of the local humanitarian relief migrant shelter, most of them will take the bus to Washington, New York or Chicago. Photo/IC photo

DeSantis is even complacent about his push for the controversial delivery of migrants. "I can tell you with certainty that it (the immigration issue) will be a big issue in the election. It has played a role beyond anyone's imagination, and we will continue to exert its greater impact. ”

In the near term, at least, immigration has indeed been the focus of national debate. Neil Newhouse, a veteran Republican pollster, said what Republican governors have done is to raise the importance and relevance of immigration issues, which are important to Republican voters and can help boost turnout.

Tough measures against illegal immigrants also run the risk of backlashing out or attracting criticism at home and abroad. However, Wang Yong believes that for the Republican Party as a whole, the benefits clearly outweigh the risks. These actions have been carefully calculated by politicians, and American politics is highly polarized, and the two parties are incompatible, and only such measures can attract attention and consolidate the support of the basic voters of their own party.

Following the delivery of immigrants, on September 23, local time, House Republican leader McCarthy listed the Republican agenda before the midterm elections at an event in Pittsburgh. Time magazine noted that the Republican Party continues to send a tough signal about immigration, suggesting that the Republican Party has seen immigration as a key strategy to unite the Republican Party and win over voters.

In terms of current results, the Associated Press notes that friends and enemies alike may have to acknowledge that Republican governors' recent heavy-handed tactics on immigration have effectively changed the focus of the November midterm elections, shifting the focus from abortion rights to issues more favorable to the Republican Party.

"Mid-term exam" six weeks later

On the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, November 8, local time, the Biden administration is about to usher in the "midterm examination" of his administration.

In this midterm election, the American people will elect 435 U.S. House of Representatives, 35 U.S. Senators, 36 governors and other local officials. To some extent, the midterm elections are a "poll of the current president's ability to govern," and the outcome of the final election will also affect his work in power for the next two years.

From experience, the party of the incumbent president tends to lose in the midterm elections. In 2010, for example, former U.S. President Barack Obama's Democratic Party was swept through the midterm elections, the Senate advantage was halved, the House of Representatives lost control, and the Republican Party won its biggest victory since the 1930s. In 2018, under Trump, Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives after a gap of eight years in the midterm elections.

Political scientists describe this phenomenon as a "thermostatic model of public opinion," which argues that swing voters tend to oppose the ruling party and avoid the state going too far to the left or right.

Biden's overall approval rating and economic policy support in July were also not optimistic about the Democratic Party's performance in the midterm elections, and the decline was much higher than that of his two predecessors.

Recently, however, things have quietly changed. Not only is Biden's poll approval rating starting to pick up, but in the polls for the midterm elections, Democratic and Republican ratings are also comparable. Wang Yong pointed out that this is mainly because the domestic situation in the United States has undergone major changes, the Biden administration rushed to promote a series of legislation before the midterm elections, and achieved certain results in reducing oil prices, thus saving the people's hearts.

But that may not change the disadvantages faced by the Democratic Party. Liu Weidong believes that Biden's election is mainly because Trump has caused great controversy, not because of his own political ability. After the Biden administration, the polar confrontation in American society has not improved, the new crown epidemic is still raging, and the inflation problem is serious. Biden's work energy and style of work determined that he could not make drastic reforms. While there has been some improvement in support recently, the change doesn't seem to be enough to reverse the Democratic Party's disadvantage ahead of the midterm elections.

Immigrants became political pawns, and party rivalry intensified in the United States before the midterm elections

The 2022 U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 8, local time. Photo/Visual China

For now, Democrats temporarily control the House of Representatives and have a slight advantage in the Senate. The Washington Post notes that this year, Republicans only need to get the right seats to win a majority in the House of Representatives, and most predictive models show that Republicans are expected to achieve that goal.

The situation in the Senate is a bit more complicated. Of the 35 seats re-elected, 21 belong to the Republican Party. Polls show that many candidates remain evenly matched in many key campaigns. Liu Weidong said that if the Biden administration can take advantage of the current momentum of public opinion recovery to further improve relations with the electoral people, the Democratic Party still has a chance to maintain its advantage in the Senate.

The results of this "midterm examination" will also profoundly affect the efficiency of the Biden administration in the next two years. Wang Yong pointed out that if the Democratic Party loses its fragile majority advantage over both chambers at the same time, this may lead to the Biden administration entering a "lame duck" state in advance, the infighting between the two parties will hinder the legislative process, and it will be difficult for the Biden administration to implement effective governance.

After the midterm elections, the next focus of both parties will go directly to the 2024 presidential election. But for now, the situation in both parties is unclear. According to the "Capitol Hill" reported on September 25, local time, the latest poll of the Langer Research Association shows that 56% of Democrats hope that the Democratic Party will choose other presidential candidates besides Biden.

On the Republican side, although Trump is still a popular presidential candidate, and many Republicans who support "Trumpism" have won the party primary, their political future is still uncertain. Liu Weidong believes that, first of all, Trump is entangled in lawsuits, and it remains to be seen what kind of impact these lawsuits will have on Trump; Second, even though "Trumpism" is highly sought after within the party, their tendency to oppose Trump personally is slowly emerging. Republicans may elect presidential candidates in the future who uphold Trump's "America First" philosophy, but whose behavior is more principled and predictable than Trump's.

Beijing News reporter Luan Ruoxi

Editor Zhang Lei proofread Liu Yue

Read on