U.S. imports "volume and price fall" Yen and Japanese debt V-shaped reversals – weekly reports on global macroeconomic and commodity markets

Source: Founder Mid-Term Futures Limited

Part I: Interpretation of the Domestic Economy

Domestically, the August economic data released this week showed a slight decline in Caixin's service industry and comprehensive PMI. Import and export growth slowed, showing weaker than expected, especially in manufacturing. Output is expected to recover or lead to a rebound in exports after the power supply gap is closed in September, but the impact of sporadic outbreaks on port efficiency still requires sustained attention. CPI and PPI were weaker than expected, with commodity prices, domestic sporadic epidemics, weather and other factors being the main impact of inflation in August. CPI was dragged down by food, non-food, etc., while PPI weakened under the impact of falling commodity prices. The CPI is expected to rebound slightly in September, but the PPI will continue to decline. The increase in loans and social financing on the balance sheet slightly exceeded expectations, but the absolute increase was low, of which the improvement of residents' medium- and long-term loans was insufficient, and it is expected that the slow repair trend will not change. Foreign exchange reserves fell to four-year lows as a result of rising dollars and falling prices of global financial assets. The central bank's open market operations this week put liquidity at zero. At the same time, it was also announced that the foreign exchange deposit rate would be lowered from September 15 to release a signal to stabilize the exchange rate. The Standing Committee of the People's Republic of China will continue to emphasize support for employment, new loans and phased tax cuts. Overall, the economic data released during the week had a mixed impact on risk asset prices, while the policy side was relatively calm. At present, the domestic economy is still in a weak recovery, and we continue to pay attention to the economic repair in September after the end of the power shortage.

In terms of risk events, a 6.8-magnitude earthquake occurred in Luding County, Sichuan, and the national earthquake emergency response level was raised to level 2. The economic impact of the event is expected to be limited. Sporadic domestic outbreaks remain the main exogenous factors affecting the economy.

Part II: Interpretation of overseas economies

First, the "volume and price of imported goods in the United States have fallen together"

The United States is the world's largest importer and trading country, especially in the low-end manufacturing industry is heavily dependent on imports, more than 90% of imported goods are transported in containers. As the U.S. economy falls into a technical recession and the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the marginal growth rate of U.S. consumption has slowed down, and major U.S. retail importers are not optimistic about U.S. consumption expectations, and have recently cut down sharply on retail orders. Walmart canceled billions of orders and Target canceled more than $1.5 billion in orders to align inventory levels with expected demand. U.S. imports fell for two consecutive months after peaking in May. Container throughput at major U.S. ports recorded 3.71 million TEU in July, down 7.1 percent year-on-year and 10 percent month-on-month. Meanwhile, the U.S. ImportEd Goods Price Index (excluding oil and petroleum products) grew negatively for three consecutive months in May-July. In the case of volume and price falling together, the amount of us seasonally adjusted imports of goods fell for two consecutive months from June to July. The U.S. Retail Federation (NRF) lowered its U.S. demand forecast for July-December this year, expecting the total amount of retail cargo arriving at major U.S. ports to be about 12.8 million TEU, down 1.5 percent year-on-year.

Second, the V-shaped reversal of the yen and Japanese bond yields

In order to control the scale of Japan's debt, the Bank of Japan has continued to suppress Japanese bond yields, repeatedly announcing the unlimited purchase of domestic government bonds at fixed interest rates, trying to control interest rates at the 0.25% mark, the most recent being the Bank of Japan announcing on July 25 that it will purchase 500 billion yen of 500 billion yen of 5-10-year treasury bonds at fixed interest rates. Under the active efforts of the Bank of Japan, on August 5, the yield on Japan's 10-year treasury bond was reduced to 0.172%, and the dollar fell back to 131.6 against the yen.

However, Japanese government bond yields have rebounded again since mid-August, driven by rising Yields in Europe and the United States, and with a rebound in Japan's CPI data leading to a rate hike by the Bank of Japan. At the same time, although the US inflation data has declined, the major officials of the Federal Reserve still release hawkish signals, especially Powell's emphasis on the policy of "first resist inflation, then save the economy" at the annual meeting of the global central bank, which makes the dollar index continue to climb against other currencies. On September 8, the dollar closed at 14 4.12, a nearly 24-year high; The yield on the 10-year Treasury note reached 0.263%, the highest in nearly three months.

Overall, the BoJ will not abandon quantitative easing in the short term, the Fed will still maintain a more hawkish monetary policy, and usd/JPY is expected to touch the 150 mark. The global economy is shifting from "stagflation" to "recession", geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, countries are at increased risk of debt defaults, and Japanese government yields are likely to continue to rise. Relatively speaking, the Japanese government and the central bank will intervene in Japanese bond yields, mainly in order not to expand the level of Japanese debt, and the depreciation of the yen can promote Japan's foreign exports to a certain extent.

Third, the economic situation in Russia is slightly better than expected

According to data released by the Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, Russia's real GDP fell by 4% year-on-year in the second quarter of this year, and the economic decline was mainly due to the protracted Russian-Ukrainian conflict and Western sanctions on Russia. However, the real decline of -4% was significantly better than the -7% forecast in western countries and the -4.3% expectation of the Russian central bank. Zabotkin, deputy governor of the Central Bank of Russia, confidently predicts that the Russian economy will bottom out in the first half of 2023 and that the economy will move towards a new long-term balance in the second half of the year.

From January to June this year, Russia's cumulative fiscal surplus reached 1.38 trillion rubles, up 78.7% year-on-year. Among them, fiscal expenditure was 12.63 trillion yuan, up 20.4% year-on-year; fiscal revenue was 14.02 trillion yuan, up 24.4% year-on-year. It is reported that since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia's daily military expenditure has reached 300 million US dollars, resulting in a sharp rise in fiscal expenditure. However, Russia is a resource-export-oriented country, and as the prices of commodities such as oil, gas, coal, and grain soar, Russia has gained additional fiscal revenue. Overall, Russia's fiscal revenue increased more than fiscal expenditure, and the fiscal surplus increased significantly year-on-year. At the same time, Western sanctions on Russia's technology and equipment are forcing Russia to support its own industries and gradually achieve self-sufficiency in the economic field. After continuing to shrink in January and April, the domestic industry finally bottomed out in May and June, and the industrial index recorded 117.9 in July, up 1.2% month-on-month. The manufacturing sector recovered above the boom-bust line in May, with a manufacturing PMI of 51.7 in August, the highest since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Retail turnover increased by 14.3% compared to the same period last year, although the consumer confidence index fell back to -31 in the second quarter, the lowest since the second half of 2009. The services PMI fell back below the boom-bust line in August. With the overall recovery of industry and services, Russia's unemployment rate remained at 3.9% in May and July, the lowest since 1994.

The ruble depreciated sharply in the third quarter, recording 60.8010 usd/rubus on September 9, an appreciation of 18.8% compared to June 30, on the one hand, due to the Fed's strong monetary policy, the dollar appreciated sharply against other currencies; on the other hand, European countries gradually terminated or reduced Russia's coal and oil imports from August, while Russia took the initiative to suspend Nord Stream-1, and the ruble settlement is not as urgent as in the second quarter. However, compared with the phased peak of 120.3785 on March 11, the current dollar/rupee exchange rate is half of the previous level and is still far below before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Due to the overall strength of the ruble and the continuous recovery of domestic industry, the price of imported goods in Russia fell, the supply of domestic goods increased, and prices continued to fall, and the growth rate of Russian CPI in June and July was negative month-on-month.

Still, the real crisis in Russia could come in the second half of the year. We have always said that the EU is highly dependent on Russia's energy imports, but in fact, Russia is more dependent on the EU's energy exports. Taking natural gas as an example, in the first quarter of this year, EU imports of Russian natural gas accounted for 44% of total imports, and Russian natural gas exports to the EU accounted for 57% of total exports. Although the EU's energy ban on Russia was formulated in the first half of this year, the real implementation was from the second half of this year, the EU has banned the import of coal from Russia since August 1, and the import of oil from Russia by sea is prohibited before the end of this year, and EU employees will take the initiative to reduce the use of natural gas by 15%. Global commodity prices peaked and fell in June, with Russia's cumulative fiscal surplus from January to June shrinking by 8% month-on-month compared to January-May. Moreover, Russia's initiative to reduce or even suspend the supply of "Nord Stream-1" will also seriously reduce Russia's foreign exchange earnings, and Russia's foreign exchange surplus will continue to shrink in the second half of the year. Russia is currently in crisis, and the US White House is considering transferring all Russian assets in the United States to Ukraine as a post-war reconstruction, which will seriously damage Russia's foreign exchange reserves; The Russian army has been defeated in the Battle of Kherson, and future wars may spread to Crimea, and with the prolongation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, huge financial expenditures and military damage will seriously deplete Russia's already insufficient national strength.

Part III: Review of the week's key events and data

Part IV Next Week's Important Events and Data Tips

Part V: A Weekly Brief Review of the Futures Market

First, plate interpretation

variety	Brief comment on
Financial futures sector	The August foreign trade data released this week are lower than the previous value and market expectations, Friday's price data is also generally lower than market expectations, financial statistics of new RMB loans and social financing rebounded from the previous month, the enthusiasm of domestic policies has increased significantly, focusing on policy-oriented development financial instruments and the use of new special debt balance limits on infrastructure. Recently, the money market funding rate has begun to gradually converge, but it is still at a relatively low level. The ECB's September rate meeting raised a historic 75BP rate and promised to continue to raise interest rates sharply in response to inflation, and the downside risks to the European economy under the energy crisis have intensified. Fed officials continue to stress the need for rate hikes to address inflation, with the dollar index briefly rising above 110 recently. Financial futures and options markets, stock index futures: the major indices are less differentiated and the IC performance is relatively strong. Optimism remains positive about IF and IH, with entries continuing to hold long positions and long positions remaining unchanged in the medium term. IC and IM maintain a high sell low suction strategy, and short-term long opportunities are still there. In terms of cash arbitrage, the space for IC and IM remote anti-arbitrage has dropped to less than 6% and 9%, and the cost of funds can be participated in appropriately, and the direction of the medium-term discount is still to continue to narrow. In terms of cross-symbols, IH, IF and IC, IM comparison and spreads have decreased slightly from the previous Friday, continue to wait and see and wait for the confirmation of the mid-term bottom. Treasury futures: It is recommended that trading funds wait for adjustment to buy, and bondholders can use price highs to do risk management and duration adjustment. Stock and stock index options: stock index volatility fell, volatility is expected to maintain the trend of shock recovery in the later stage, the medium-term to do more volatility strategy, short-term can sell near-month call options. Commodity options, the strategy is recommended to be defensive strategy-based, investors who read the bottom are recommended to use option tools, and strictly control positions. For investors holding unilateral futures positions, it is recommended to use the option insurance strategy to do a good job in risk management, and continue to recommend reducing costs and enhancing returns through the method of backup.
Containership sector	The international container shipping market continued to retreat this week. The SCFI Composite Freight Rate Index recorded 2562.12 points, down 10% week-on-week and down for 13 consecutive weeks. Specific to the European and American routes, it can be seen that drewry's latest edition of the World Container Index index shows that Shanghai → The Nordic/Mediterranean/Us-West/East China routes recorded $7435/FEU, $7884/FEU, $4782/FEU, $8957/FEU, down 2%, 1.1%, 14% and 3.7% week-on-week; The Xeneta Shipping Index on September 6 showed that the Far East → Nordic/US-West routes recorded tariffs of $8083/FEU and $4893/FEU respectively, down 7.26% and 13.14% week-on-week.
Precious metal plates	This week, the European Central Bank sharply raised interest rates by 75BP, and said that it will continue to raise interest rates sharply in the future, which is more favorable to the euro; Although the hawkish speeches of Fed officials such as Powell have made the dollar index and US Treasury yields perform strongly, the dollar index is affected by the euro, and the profits at the end of this week are exhausted, ushering in a correction after continuous rise, providing rebound momentum for gold prices; Of course, fears of recessions in the eurozone and the Uk kingdom, and concerns about the European energy crisis, have also provided safe-haven support for precious metals. Under the combined influence, the bottoming rally of precious metals this week showed a slight recovery. The pace of monetary policy adjustments, recession concerns and geopolitical developments in the Fed continue to dominate the precious metals market; The super-hawkish turn, the situation is good and the economy is still strong, negative for precious metals, and vice versa. The Fed's policy tightening expectations of long-sleeve heating, precious metals highs fell back, policy tightening expectations of the transformation and gradual landing, the core point support is still strong and effective. In the medium and long term, under the expectation of recession, silver will be weaker than gold due to recession and weaker non-ferrous sectors.
Non-ferrous metal plates	[Non-ferrous metals] This week, non-ferrous metals rebounded, and nickel rose in the front. Macro bearish factors have been digested, the European Central Bank to raise interest rates to control inflation is more resolute, the dollar index rushed higher and fell back to adjust, while the domestic CPI, PPI data to the domestic credit easing and stimulus measures continue to bring space, after hours to see the social finance data is better than expected, the domestic gold nine silver ten demand is expected to be boosted. However, overseas non-ferrous metals continue to exist due to energy and other factors supply-side disturbances, and the upward fluctuation elasticity is strong after the macro pressure is alleviated, and the stage may continue to be strong internal and external. Copper: from a fundamental point of view, with the decline in temperature, the impact of the previous period of electricity on the fundamentals has gradually faded, copper upstream and downstream operations have improved, from the survey situation, the smelting capacity of restricted electrical disturbances has been fully restored, and the smelting output in September will be expected to impact 900,000 tons under the stimulation of processing fees; Entering September is the peak consumption season of copper "gold nine silver ten", the current power construction boom is relatively high, and the market still has good expectations for consumption. In the future, copper prices in the macro uncertainty still exist and fundamental supply and demand marginal strengthening to return to the shock market, the range of 64500-58000, it is recommended that futures wait and see, options to buy inflated put options to protect exposure. Zinc: Fundamentally, as Russia shut down Nord Stream 1 indefinitely, causing concerns about energy shortages, Natural gas in Europe rose sharply, raising expectations of a reduction in overseas zinc smelting production again. On the domestic side, with the recovery of the national power supply, the impact of power rationing on the fundamentals has faded, and the next into the golden nine silver ten consumption season, coupled with the state's support for infrastructure is also continuing to increase, is expected to support zinc prices under low inventory. In view of the current improvement in both macro and fundamentals, it is expected that the short-term zinc price shock is expected to be strong, futures consider pullback buying, options sell speculative puts to earn premiums. Aluminum: On the supply side, The production capacity suspended due to power curtailment in Sichuan is expected to resume production in September, but it will take 1-2 months from the resumption of production to production. In addition, there are rumors in the market that Yunnan may reduce the load of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the province by 20-30% due to insufficient hydropower. If true, it will form a strong boost to aluminum prices. On the demand side, after the traditional off-season has passed, it will usher in the peak demand season of "Golden Nine Silver Ten", but the growth is relatively slow in the recent downstream construction. In terms of imports and exports, due to the recent recovery in the Shanghai-London ratio, the import window is expected to open to a certain extent. Due to the recent recovery of the Shanghai-London ratio, the import window is expected to open to a certain extent, which is also more unfavorable for exports. In addition, poor foreign demand has also led to a decrease in the number of orders from export-oriented enterprises. In terms of inventory, the low inventory of domestic exchanges rebounded slightly, while the social inventory basically maintained a low level of sideways shock, and the foreign Lun aluminum inventory appeared a long-term decline to stop the decline and stabilize, and there was a slight rebound, which had a bearish impact on the price of Lun aluminum. On the whole, the current Shanghai aluminum disk surface is affected by macro and production cut rumors to fluctuate more sharply, it is recommended that short-term long-term single holding, you can consider the inter-period arbitrage strategy, short near month and far month. The pressure level above the main contract is 20000 and the support level below is 17000. In terms of options, it is recommended that deep imaginary options can be sold to earn additional premium gains. Nickel: from the supply point of view, electrolytic nickel production in August fell slightly from the previous month, slightly rebounded in September, the import window is still expected to open, nickel pig iron domestic production cuts, the recent transaction price has risen steadily. LME shock destocking continued, nickel bean stocks in bonded areas also declined, and stage demand improved. On the demand side, the power rationing alleviates the downstream processing of stainless steel and gradually recovers, continues to destock, demand improves, and prices pick up. The demand for nickel sulfate in new energy power batteries has rebounded, and nickel beans have been dissolved for a time. Nickel 2210 rose to near 190,000 yuan, the short-term is strong, after the holiday focus on macro and downstream resonance changes, short and long short ideas. Tin: On the supply side, the refined tin production capacity that was previously overhauled in June has been fully resumed in July and August, and the import profit window has also been opened, and overall it will show a gradually loose trend. On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry maintained a high growth rate, the export orders of tin solder enterprises decreased, and the domestic off-season effect appeared, and the decline exceeded market expectations. Lead battery production continues to rise. In terms of inventory, SMM social inventory went to the warehouse month-on-month, technically, the disk surface broke down, fell below 170,000 and then rebounded to near 180,000, macro guidance on the disk surface is stronger, and the downward trend is not exhausted in the medium and long term. Lead: with the reduction of high temperature weather, the impact of power curtailment in various places is moderated, such as the end of power curtailment in Anhui and other regions, and supply and demand are restored synchronously, but the emphasis is on supply increments; At the same time, the recent Shanghai-London ratio is conducive to imports, the import of lead concentrate has increased, and the processing fee of lead concentrate in some areas has risen. Recently, social inventories have also rebounded due to supply growth, and the increase in supply and the loosening of raw material prices have made lead prices continue to be under pressure. The lead main contract continues to fluctuate mainly within the shock zone of 14700-15300, and the short-term shock below 15000 continues to weaken. Follow up on inventory changes.
Black building materials plate	Black commodities rebounded this week, with the Wind Coal Coking Steel Index up 3.75 percent at 658.6. Iron ore at the raw material end rose significantly, with other varieties rising 4-5% and stainless steel rising 9.5%. After the Federal Reserve hawkish statement, the dollar index rose sharply, negative commodity market, but black commodity domestic demand held steady, this week's performance was better than expected, production continued to increase, the market from supply and demand weak to supply and demand double increase, more raw materials, and rising costs also led to higher steel prices. However, the demand in the peak season is still unclear, and the sustainability of demand after the Mid-Autumn Festival remains to be seen, so it is prudent to look at the height of the rebound.
Petrochemical sector	This week, the trend of the petrochemical sector has diverged, the trend of crude oil, low and high sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG energy varieties has declined to varying degrees, and the prices of polyester plates and plastic-related varieties have risen by different margins. From the perspective of the future market, we believe that the trend of energy varieties and domestic chemical varieties may continue to show a divergent trend, energy varieties have always been under the bearish pressure of the Fed's monetary policy and the low valuation of their own supply and demand, focusing on the rhythm change, while polyester plates and plastics and other chemical varieties benefit from the expectation of gold nine silver ten, the price is expected to continue to rebound, but the rebound height needs to be cautiously viewed, focusing on the continuous progress of demand.
Coal chemical sector	The varieties of the coal chemical sector stabilized, and the overall center of gravity shifted upwards. Among them, methanol performed strongly, the disk was broken upwards, and it was actively pulled up, and other varieties moved up. The market is expected to weaken significantly for the peak season of "Golden Nine silver ten", the recovery of the demand side is still worried, the trend of coking coal futures prices is still weak, and the current 01 contract still maintains a low range of 1700-2100 yuan / ton. At present, the spot profit of steel mills is low, steel mills began to suppress the price of coke, and after the first round of coke was raised to the ground, the spot price was weak, dragging down the futures price. Methanol market supply side, demand side are expected to pick up, with the easing of inventory pressure, the fundamentals or some improvement, methanol futures price standing at the 2680 line will continue to climb, low single cautious holding. Demand follow-up is slow, coupled with the lack of recent market news stimulation, PVC futures prices continue to range shock trend, pay attention to the upper 6600 pressure level, low more than a single can be appropriately reduced. Soda ash stage by the float glass cold repair expectations driven by the weak operation, for float glass enterprises and photovoltaic glass companies with replenishment needs, can wait for the disk to buy hedging opportunities. Urea actively destocking stage, production enterprises recommend based on their own inventory situation to preserve value, based on the basis of the basis of the opportunity to sell insurance, to avoid policy risks.
Feed farming sector	This week, the feed side and the breeding end were strong. On the feed side, the hot weather has affected the growth of crops in Europe, the United States and the south of the country, the market has speculated about grain prices, and the depreciation of the renminbi has made the prices of imported grains and oilseeds higher, making the inner plate stronger than the outer plate this week. The US corn and the EU excellent rate are at a low level, and the support for the market is still there. Domestically, the demand-side divergence is still the focus of attention, the weather disturbance in the production area has brought some support to the market, but the sustained bullish support is slightly insufficient, and there is still some pressure above the short-term futures price, but based on the recovery of the outer disk and the stable expectation of domestic demand, our view of the domestic corn futures price in the medium term is adjusted to a strong expectation, and the double meal is not recommended to chase higher. At the breeding end, the current futures price of pigs has the time and space expected to speculate on the peak season, but the price of the long-term futures price is relatively sufficient, especially the current overall pricing of the 2211 and 2301 contracts at the end of the year is relatively optimistic, which has been significantly higher than the cost of self-breeding and outsourcing of fattening, the futures price is highly valued, and the recent policy pressure is highlighted, and there is no strong drive to recommend buying mainly in the depth of the correction or buying 11 empty 01 arbitrage holdings. Egg fundamentals may gradually turn into a strong supply and demand during the double festival, the price of fresh products such as vegetables has begun to trend upwards, and the pre-holiday centralized elimination of old chickens may bring some improvement to the supply side, but the overall consumption downturn this year will also limit the height of the egg price rebound to a certain extent. Operationally, the sentiment of the short-term aquaculture sector has picked up, and it is expected that the futures price will maintain a low shock rebound in the short term, with reference to the important support level of 3900-4000 points of breeding costs.
Fresh and soft commodities segment	This week, the trend of fresh fruits is differentiated, the dates are in a narrow range, and the apple high is falling. From the perspective of apple fundamentals, the sharp decline in the price of early apples has put pressure on the disk, and the futures price has followed a sharp decline, but the support formed by the production cut is still there, and the downward space for the futures price to continue is limited; From the perspective of the red date market, the Mid-Autumn Festival stockpiling ended, the game between warehouse receipt pressure and cost continued, and the futures price entered a narrow range. In the later stage, the trend driving factors of the fresh fruit market are limited, and the overall futures price still maintains a range fluctuation judgment. Most of the soft commodities this week showed a narrow range of shocks, and only pulp showed a strong performance. From the perspective of the pulp market, the import volume remains low, and the tight supply is expected to boost the futures price; From the perspective of the rubber market, the game between low spot inventory and weak demand continues, and the futures price fluctuates in a narrow range; From the perspective of the white sugar market, the pressure on industrial inventories is still in place, and the performance of futures prices is under pressure; From the perspective of the cotton market, the cost and consumption game continues, and the futures price fluctuates in a narrow range. In the later stage, the weak varieties of rubber, sugar and cotton in the soft commodity sector are still under pressure, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and from the pulp point of view, the demand side performance is under pressure, or the upward space of the futures price is restricted.

Second, the interpretation of varieties

variety	Brief comment on
Stock index	【Market review】The market rebounded significantly during the week. The Shanghai Composite Index began to rise on Monday, and in addition to a slight decline on Thursday, it continued to rise throughout the week, especially on Tuesday and Friday, but the average daily trading volume continued to decline during the week. The main exponential differences are reduced and the IC performs relatively better. In terms of industries, most of the Shenwan first-level industries have risen, and industry differences have risen. Combined with the industry weight, non-bank finance drives 300 and 50, power equipment drives 300 and 1000, non-ferrous metals pull 500, and the negative impact of food and beverage is greater. The futures market situation shows that the annualized premium rate of IF, IH, IC and IM contracts has increased, and until Friday, if the two recent months of IF and the IH term contracts have fully increased, the IH positive set space for the month has reappeared. The reverse space of THE IC and IM at the far end has dropped to less than 6% and 9%, and the cost of funds can be participated in appropriately, and the direction of the medium-term discount is still to continue to narrow. In terms of cross-symbols, IH, IF and IC, IM comparison and spreads have decreased slightly from the previous Friday, continue to wait and see and wait for the confirmation of the mid-term bottom. In terms of trading positions, the end-of-period position volume and average daily volume of IF, IC and IM contracts have declined, and the average daily volume of IH contracts has increased while the average daily volume has declined. In terms of funds, the main index funds are inflows during the week, and the average daily outflow of overseas funds is slight, mainly on Friday. 【Important information】On the news side, the US economy remains under pressure, and some employment indicators show signs of weakness, but they have not yet reached the inflection point. The Fed remains focused on high inflation and maintains a hawkish stance, with a 75BP rate hike in September highly likely. The ECB raised interest rates by 75BP during the week, and key officials continue to hold hawkish views. Overseas markets have rebounded in the week, which is more positive for the domestic market, but the medium- and long-term adjustment trend remains unchanged, and the future is still a potential bearish factor. On the domestic side, the August economic data released this week showed that Caixin service industry and comprehensive PMI fell slightly, the growth rate of imports and exports slowed down and was weaker than expected, and the CPI and PPI were also weaker than expected. The increase in loans and social financing on the balance sheet slightly exceeded expectations, but the absolute increase was low, especially the improvement of medium- and long-term loans for residents was insufficient. Foreign reserves declined due to strong dollars and weak assets. The policy side is relatively calm, the central bank this week's open market operations to put liquidity at zero, while announcing that from September 15 to reduce the foreign exchange deposit ratio, releasing a signal to stabilize the exchange rate. The Standing Committee of the People's Republic of China will continue to emphasize support for employment, new loans and phased tax cuts. In addition, an earthquake occurred in Luding County, Sichuan, but the impact on the economy is expected to be small. Sporadic outbreaks in China remain the main exogenous risk. Overall, the economic data released during the week had a long-negative impact on the market, and some small positive effects may be reflected on next Monday. In the short term, the domestic economy has emerged from the problem of power shortage in August, and the improvement of fundamentals is temporarily conducive to the improvement of market sentiment, and we continue to pay attention to the economic changes in September. In the medium and long term, the future economic upward pace is still the main factor affecting the market, and changes in economic expectations and policy effects, especially the degree of real estate improvement, are still the core impact of fundamentals. 【Arbitrage strategy】In terms of cash arbitrage, the space for IC and IM remote anti-arbitrage has dropped to less than 6% and 9%, and the cost of funds can be participated in appropriately, and the medium-term premium direction is still to continue to narrow. In terms of cross-symbols, IH, IF and IC, IM comparison and spreads have decreased slightly from the previous Friday, continue to wait and see and wait for the confirmation of the mid-term bottom. 【Trading strategy】 Technically, the Shanghai Composite Index weekly K line rebounded significantly, the main technical indicators also fully recovered, short-term breakthrough of the downward pressure line of 3250 points of pressure, pay attention to the stage pressure level near 3300 points, support is still located at 3180 points and 3199 points gap and other positions, it is expected that the shock rebound trend will not change. In the medium term, the index returned to sideways volatility, the medium-term bottom near 2863 points has been confirmed, and the medium-term pressure is still high before 3731 points. In terms of operation, the degree of differentiation of the main indexes is reduced, and the IC performance is relatively strong. Optimism remains positive about IF and IH, with entries continuing to hold long positions and long positions remaining unchanged in the medium term. IC and IM maintain a high sell low suction strategy, and short-term long opportunities are still there.
national debt	This week's treasury futures high adjustment, of which the 10-year main contract fell 0.33% weekly, the 5-year main contract fell 0.19% weekly, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.04% weekly. Recent bullish factors have materialized and pressure to take profits has led to a high correction in Treasury futures. 【Important information】 Fundamentally, the foreign trade data released this week in August are lower than the previous value and market expectations, affected by the increased downward pressure on the economy, and the decline in domestic and foreign demand growth has put pressure on foreign trade data. Friday's price data was also generally below market expectations, with China's August CPI at 2.5% y/y, expected at 2.80% and 2.70% in the previous month. China's PPI for August was 2.3% year-on-year, expected to be 3.1%, compared to 4.20% previously. Open markets, the central bank's open markets maintained a low volume of 2 billion operations this week. Recently, the money market funding rate has begun to gradually converge, but it is still at a relatively low level, the current DR001 is running in the range of 1.1%-1.2%, DR007 is running above 1.4%, and it is expected that as the end of the third quarter continues to approach, the volatility of the capital surface may increase. Overseas, inflation in the euro area is high, the European Central Bank in September interest rate meeting a historic interest rate hike of 75BP, and promised to continue to raise interest rates sharply in response to inflation, the energy crisis under the European economy downside risks intensified. Fed officials continue to emphasize the need to raise interest rates to deal with inflation, the dollar index broke through 110, the Probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75bp in September rose to more than 85%, the recent dollar index once stood above 110, and is still running near 110, the 10-year US Treasury yield has also risen to more than 3.2%, the inversion of Long-term Treasury yields in China and the United States has widened, superimposed on the recent acceleration of the depreciation of the renminbi, and the impact of overseas factors on the domestic market has increased. 【Arbitrage strategy】The yield curve has steepened recently, and it is recommended to wait for a flat curve trading strategy. 【Trading strategy】 Although the domestic economic data weakened further this week, and the price decline rate was higher than the market expectations, the economic downturn and domestic interest rate cuts and other factors have basically been reflected in the price of treasury bond futures, and the market price is under short-term pressure after the digestion of bullish factors, and the current market focus is focused on the guidance of the real economy data in August next week. In view of the recent introduction of a series of effective demand policies to expand the country. The use of new quotas for policy-oriented development financial instruments and the balance limit of special bonds has increased the supply pressure on the bond market. The US dollar index in overseas markets remained strong, the renminbi showed a depreciation trend against the US dollar, the long-end yield spread between China and the United States widened, and the impact of external factors on the domestic market increased. Operationally, it is recommended that trading funds wait for adjustment to buy, and bondholders can use price highs to do risk management and duration adjustment.
Stock options	This week, the stock index remained volatile, with the CSI 300 index up 1.74% at 4093.78. The Shanghai 50 index rose 1.74% at 2757.56. The CSI 1000 rose 2.93% to 6913.57. 【Important Information】 General Administration of Customs: The total value of the mainland's foreign trade imports and exports in the first 8 months was 27.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year; the State Administration of Foreign Exchange: As of the end of August 2022, the size of the mainland's foreign exchange reserves was 3,054.9 billion US dollars, down 49.2 billion US dollars from the end of July, a decrease of 1.58%, the comprehensive effect of factors such as exchange rate conversion and asset price changes, the scale of foreign exchange reserves fell in the same month; on September 9, the central bank authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce, On September 9, 2022, the median exchange rate of the renminbi in the interbank foreign exchange market was: $1 against the renminbi 6.9098 yuan, compared with 6.9148 yuan in the previous trading day, an increase of 50 basis points. 【Trading strategy】 The volatility of the stock index has fallen, the volatility is expected to maintain the trend of shock recovery in the later stage, and the medium-term volatility strategy is mainly based on the long volatility strategy, and the short-term can sell near-month call options. Recommended Strategy: 300 ETF Options: Sell 9 Month Call Options 4.5. Stock Index Options: Sell September 4500 call options. SSE 50 ETF Options: Sell the September 3.1 call option. CSI 1000 Stock Index Options: Sell the September 7500 call option.
Commodity options	【Market review】 This week, the various targets of domestic commodity options have risen and fallen differently. In the options market, the volume of commodity options declined. At present, copper, soybean meal and other put contracts are the most active. Cotton, rubber, sugar, etc. are more actively traded on call options. In terms of POSITION PCR, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, copper, crude oil, etc. are at a high level. Options such as rubber, sugar, methanol, and PVC are at a relatively low level. In terms of volatility, the hidden wave of various varieties of options has declined, and the overall situation is still relatively high. 【Important news】 In terms of macro markets, Fed Chairman Powell and his colleagues have said that they will continue to take tough measures to curb inflation, suggesting that the FOMC will continue to aggressively raise interest rates. The ECB raised interest rates by 75 basis points and expects the European economy to stall later this year. U.S. initial jobless claims data fell to a three-and-a-half-month low last week, reinforcing expectations that the Fed could take more aggressive rate hikes. On the domestic side, the CPI and PPI in August were lower than market expectations, and the financial data exceeded market expectations, and the future implementation of monetary policy is still large. In addition, the domestic epidemic rebounded, and the form of steady growth is still relatively severe. The central bank said that to maintain the stability of the growth of total loans, it is necessary to ensure the reasonable financing needs of real estate. The executive meeting of the State Council deployed successive policies and measures to stabilize the economic package and strengthen the foundation for economic recovery and development. The foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio will be reduced from the current 8% to 6% from 15 September. 【Trading Strategy】 In general, the current DOLLAR index is high, the external uncertainty is large, and the strategy is recommended to be defensive. However, the peak consumption season of The Golden Nine Silver Ten is coming, and investors who read the bottom recommend using option tools and strictly controlling their positions. In terms of specific varieties, investors participating in the swing trend market can pay attention to copper, crude oil, palm oil, two meals and other varieties. Investors participating in volatility trading can grasp the opportunity of daytime and intraday Gamma in the short term, and can pay attention to high-volatility options such as crude oil, LPG, iron ore and so on. Finally, for investors holding unilateral futures positions, it is recommended to use the option insurance strategy to do a good job in risk management, and continue to recommend reducing costs and enhancing returns through backup.
Cargo	From the perspective of capacity supply, trans-Pacific routes: This week, the total number of liners launched by liner companies on China→ U.S.-West routes reached 309,439TEU, a decrease of 6.9% week-on-week, of which Shanghai → U.S.-West routes pre-allocated 32 routes, suspended 6, and the suspension rate fell slightly to 19%. Next week, the total class of liners launched by the liner company on the China → U.S.-West route rebounded to 294,449TEU, of which the Shanghai → U.S.-West route pre-equipped 32 routes and suspended 8. Asia-Europe routes: This week, the total number of liners launched by liner companies on China→ Nordic routes reached 197170 TEU, down 9.2% week-on-week, of which Shanghai → Nordic routes pre-allocated 13 routes, suspended 1, and the suspension rate remained 1/13. Next week, the liner company's total liner space on the China → Nordic route rebounded to 229481 TEU, of which the Shanghai → Nordic route pre-equipped with 12 routes and suspended 3, with a 25% suspension rate. From the perspective of capacity demand, this week China is still under epidemic control, including Shenzhen, Dalian, Chengdu and other important seaports and export trade cities are still under control, especially Shenzhen is China's third largest container hub port, Yantian Port is the world's largest single container port, the entire Guangdong Province 1/3 and the country 1/4 of the united States goods through the Shenzhen port. Therefore, shenzhen's citywide sealing control has a major negative impact on export trade, especially for U.S. trade, which is also an important reason why the decline of the U.S.-West route far exceeds that of other routes. The global economy is shifting from "stagnant" to "recession", the IMF has lowered the economic growth rate of the United States, the euro area and China to 2.3%, 2.6% and 3.3% respectively, and the fourth quarter will show a weak supply and demand situation of import and export goods. Overall, the market will continue to decline in September, and the global container shipping market in the fourth quarter is also not optimistic, there will be a peak season is not prosperous, and freight rates will fall further. Freight rates in the fourth quarter are certainly much lower than the same period last year, or even worse than in the third quarter of this year. Spot tariffs will weaken further next year, and long-term prices will also be significantly lowered next year.
noble metal	This week, the European Central Bank sharply raised interest rates by 75BP, and said that it will continue to raise interest rates sharply in the future, which is more favorable to the euro; Although the hawkish speeches of Fed officials such as Powell have made the dollar index and US Treasury yields perform strongly, the dollar index is affected by the euro, and the profits at the end of this week are exhausted, ushering in a correction after continuous rise, providing rebound momentum for gold prices; Of course, fears of recessions in the eurozone and the Uk kingdom, and concerns about the European energy crisis, have also provided safe-haven support for precious metals. Under the comprehensive impact, this week's precious metals bottomed out and rebounded slightly, although spot gold once fell below the $1700 mark, but the end of the session returned to above $1700 / ounce, the overall in the 1690-1729 US dollars / ounce range is running strongly, this week's rise is around 0.8%; spot silver performance is strong, the overall 17.82-18.89 US dollars / ounce range is running strongly, this week's rise is about 4.5%. In terms of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver, Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver rose slightly this week, Shanghai gold rose 1.91% to 389.52 yuan / g, Shanghai silver rose 4.52% to 4326 yuan / kg. (1) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that the fight against inflation cannot be prematurely relaxed, saying that the Fed needs to take "direct and forceful" action on inflation and will persist until the task is completed; The Fed's job is to ensure that inflation expectations are anchored at 2 percent and are prepared to adjust the scale of the balance sheet reduction according to economic needs. Powell noted that the longer inflation is above target, the greater the risk. Fed "Eagle King" Bullard and Chicago Fed President Evans also said that reducing inflation to 2% is the Fed's primary goal; Evans sees openness to supporting a rate hike of 50 basis points or 75 basis points in September; Tend to raise interest rates to 4% and then pause rate hikes. (2) The ECB raised all three major interest rates by 75 basis points, in line with market expectations, a sharp 75 basis point hike for the first time since 1999. The ECB raised its inflation forecast across the board and is expected to raise interest rates further to dampen demand. ECB President Lagarde said at the press conference that inflation risks are expected to be on the upside, and the number of future interest rate hikes will not exceed 5, stressing that 75 basis points is not the norm; Lagarde said she did not know what the terminal rate would be, but would raise the terminal rate if necessary. (3) In the week from August 24 to August 30, gold speculative net longs decreased by 8113 lots to 117734 contracts, indicating that investors' willingness to be bullish on gold continued to cool; Speculators' holdings of silver were speculatively reduced by 3771 lots to -8271 lots, indicating that investors' willingness to bullish silver has cooled. 【Arbitrage strategy】 (1) The gold-silver ratio has exceeded 90, while silver will be dragged down by the recession, and the space above the gold-silver ratio still exists, pay attention to the 100 mark. In the short term, you can still do a long gold-silver ratio, but it is not recommended to continue to do a long gold-silver ratio in the medium and long term, and the profit space is relatively small. (2) The price of gold is higher than the price of the outer disk, and the price of the inner disk of silver is also higher than the price of the outer disk, and there are opportunities for arbitrage between internal and external prices. 【Trading strategy】 The pace of monetary policy adjustment of the Federal Reserve, recession concerns and geopolitical developments continue to dominate the precious metals market; The super-hawkish turn, the situation is good and the economy is still strong, negative for precious metals, and vice versa. The Fed's policy tightening expectations of long-sleeve heating, precious metals highs fell back, policy tightening expectations of the transformation and gradual landing, the core point support is still strong and effective. In the medium and long term, under the expectation of recession, silver will be weaker than gold due to recession and weaker non-ferrous sectors. The Fed's accelerated tightening of monetary policy expectations put precious metals under pressure, London gold now fell below the $1700 / ounce mark, London gold is still the core support level of 1675-1680 US dollars / ounce range, this support level is still a key point for bull-bear conversion, if it falls below, it will enter the bear market; Key points are still effective support, with the impact of Fed policy tightening gradually being priced by the market, geopolitical tensions heating up again, recession fears and asset allocation needs and other factors, gold continues to focus on the $1800/oz round mark and the $1875/oz key level. Shanghai gold continues to pay attention to the 400 yuan / gram mark above, and below to pay attention to the support of 365 yuan / g. Silver fell below the $18/oz support due to weak economic weakness and weak non-ferrous sectors, and continued to focus on the support of the $18/oz (4000 yuan/kg) and $17.5/oz (3900 yuan/kg) marks, and the core support level was adjusted to $16.8/oz (3750 yuan/kg); Above focus on the $22/oz position (4800/kg). Silver's medium- to long-term allocation value remains low. In terms of gold options, it is recommended to sell deep imaginary call/put options in the near future to obtain premiums, such as selling au2212P364 contracts.
copper	【Market review】 Shanghai copper rebounded sharply this week, as of Friday's close, the main contract CU2210 closed at 63070 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 5.93%. In terms of spot, the average price of Shanghai nonferrous 1# electrolytic copper on September 9 was 63680 yuan / ton, up 3205 yuan / ton from September 2; The average warehouse receipt premium of Yangshan copper is 97.5 US dollars / ton, down 4 US dollars / ton from September 2. 【Important information】 1, macro: the US non-farm payrolls announced on Friday was slightly higher than expected, the unemployment rate recorded 3.7%, higher than expected and previous value of 3.5%, the first rise in 7 months, indicating the need to continue to raise interest rates to cool the US economy, CME Fed to observe the probability of a 75bp rate hike in September from about 70% last week to 58%, macro pressure has slowed down, but still need to be vigilant against the possibility of inflation under the global energy crisis that exceeded expectations to cause tightening and acceleration. 2. Supply side: Satellite monitoring data for metal smelters showed a slight rebound in global copper smelting activity in August, with increased activity in South America, Europe and Africa offsetting the impact of declining Production in China. According to a joint statement by commodity broker Marex and satellite analytics services company SAVANT, Glencore's Altonorte and Chile's National Copper Company (Codelco)'s Chuquicamata businesses are highly active. According to Earth-i's monthly Global Copper Smelting Activity Index, the Global Copper Dispersibility Index, which measures smelter activity, rose to 48.6 in August from 46.5 in the previous month. The South American Diversity Index rebounded to 52.1; it was 37.7 last month, the lowest level since December 2021. A dispersion index of 50 indicates that refinery activity is at the average level of the past 12 months. BHP's Escondida copper union in Chile said the miners voted Wednesday to hold a strike because of the safety concerns they had raised. The union said BHP Billiton had not responded to multiple complaints about potential security risks, voting almost unanimously on Wednesday in favor of strike action. The strike will result in a 12-hour shift shutdown of the mine on September 12 and 14, followed by an indefinite strike until an agreement is reached with BHP Billiton. According to data released on wednesday on the website of the General Administration of Customs, China imported copper ore and its concentrate in August at 2.270 million tons, and imports of copper ore and its concentrate in January-August were 16.635 million tons, an increase of 9.0% from 15.260 million tons in the same period in 2021. In August, China imported 498,200 tons of unwrought copper and copper materials, an increase of 26.4% year-on-year and 7.4% month-on-month; from January to August, the cumulative imports were 3.903 million tons, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year. 3, demand side: according to mysteel statistics, in August 2022 copper pipe production of 116,000 tons, capacity utilization rate of 53.77%, down 3.33% from July. The main reason for the decline is that the downstream orders have not improved significantly, and some enterprises have chosen the sales strategy of "under-price guarantee" in order to maintain the order demand of old customers. The overall capacity utilization rate of copper rod enterprises in August 2022 was 56%, down 1% from 57% in July. According to the survey, the total copper consumption of China's major brands of air conditioners in August was 97,600 tons; of which the total copper consumption of copper pipes was 65,100 tons, the total copper consumption of brass was 32,500 tons; the amount of copper pipes used in household air conditioners was 43,600 tons, a decrease of 8.82% month-on-month, the amount of copper used in household air conditioners was 27,100 tons, a decrease of 8.37% month-on-month; the amount of commercial copper pipes was 21,500 tons, down 12.2% month-on-month; and the amount of copper used in commercial brass was 0.79 million tons, down 11.8% month-on-month. 4, inventory end: according to Mysteel, september 8 the domestic market electrolytic copper spot inventory of 70,200 tons, an increase of 0.13 million tons from September 1, down 10,500 tons from September 5; Shanghai inventory of 53,300 tons, an increase of 0.29 million tons from September 1, down 0.46 million tons from September 5; Guangdong inventory of 0.98 million tons, down 0.22 million tons from September 1, down 0.64 million tons from September 5. 【Trading strategy】 From a fundamental point of view, with the decline in temperature, the impact of pre-term electricity on fundamentals has gradually faded, copper upstream and downstream construction has improved, from the survey situation, the smelting capacity of restricted electrical disturbance has been fully restored, and smelting output in September will be expected to impact 900,000 tons under the stimulation of processing fees; Entering September is the peak consumption season of copper "gold nine silver ten", the current power construction boom is relatively high, and the market still has good expectations for consumption. In the future, copper prices in the macro uncertainty still exist and fundamental supply and demand marginal strengthening to return to the shock market, the range of 64500-58000, it is recommended that futures wait and see, options to buy inflated put options to protect exposure.
zinc	【Market review】 This week's Shanghai zinc shock upwards, as of Friday's close, ZN2210 closed at 24710 yuan / ton, up 4.2%. In terms of spot, as of this Friday, the average price of #0 zinc ingot of Shanghai Nonferrous Network was 25280 yuan / ton, up 820 yuan / ton from last Friday. 【Important information】 1. Policy aspect: Recently, the State Council held an executive meeting to deploy a package of policies to stabilize the economy. It is mentioned that it is necessary to make good use of the local balance limit of more than 500 billion yuan of special bonds in accordance with the law and issue them before the end of October. 2, the supply side: In the letter disclosed by the European Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (Eurometaux) this week, Glencore and more than 40 CEOs and sub-industry association leaders of the European non-ferrous metal industry collectively signed a petition calling on the EU to take urgent measures to prevent permanent "deindustrialization" in Europe in the context of soaring electricity and natural gas prices. According to SMM, in August, due to factors such as power restrictions and maintenance, domestic refined zinc production is expected to be 471,000 tons, which is less than expected at the beginning of the month; in September, with the recovery of power curtailment and the increase in mine supply, SMM expects refined zinc production to rebound to about 530,000 tons. 3, demand side: according to SMM data show that the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises in August showed a trend of first rising and then falling, due to the improvement of orders for galvanized structural parts in the early stage, the increase in the resumption of production of small and medium-sized enterprises led to a slight upward increase in the operating rate, and then due to the decline in the operating rate of galvanized pipes, the overall galvanizing plate operation remained weak, but overall, compared with the die casting and zinc oxide plates, the galvanized plate performed well. 4, inventory end: according to mysteel, On September 8, China's total zinc ingot inventory was 85,600 tons, down 14,100 tons from (9/5) and 25,400 tons from (9/1); 13,700 tons in Shanghai; 37,700 tons in Guangdong; 26,400 tons in Tianjin and 0.27 million tons in Shandong; 0.27 million tons in Zhejiang; 0.24 million tons in Jiangsu. 【Operation Suggestion】 The US non-farm payrolls announced on Friday were slightly higher than expected, with the unemployment rate recording 3.7%, higher than expected and 3.5% above expectations, rising for the first time in 7 months, indicating that the need for continued interest rate hikes to cool down the US economy has cooled, and macro pressure has slowed. Fundamentally, as Russia closed Nord Stream 1 indefinitely, triggering market concerns about energy shortages, European natural gas rose sharply, raising expectations of overseas zinc smelting production cuts again. On the domestic side, with the recovery of the national power supply, the impact of power rationing on the fundamentals has faded, and the next into the golden nine silver ten consumption season, coupled with the state's support for infrastructure is also continuing to increase, is expected to support zinc prices under low inventory. In view of the current improvement in both macro and fundamentals, it is expected that the short-term zinc price shock is expected to be strong, futures consider pullback buying, options sell speculative puts to earn premiums.
lead	【Market review】 This week, lead prices rushed higher and fell back, and the weekly high of the main Shanghai lead contract reached 15135, closing at 14940 yuan / ton, up 0.37%. Data released by the International Research Group on Lead and Zinc (ILZSG) shows that in June 2022, the global lead market was short of 20,400 tons, and in May it was revised to a surplus of 13,600 tons. At the beginning of May, it was oversupply of 17,500 tons. From January to June 2022, the global lead market had an oversupply of 21,000 tonnes, compared to 89,000 tonnes in the same period last year. According to SMM research, the national electrolytic lead production in August 2022 was 268,300 tons, up 2.34% month-on-month and 3.17% year-on-year. From January to August 2022, the cumulative year-on-year decline was 3.79%. Since mid-to-late August, the lead-To-London ratio has expanded, which is conducive to the import of lead concentrate and eases the tight supply of domestic minerals to a certain extent. More obviously, the lead concentrate processing fee finally stopped falling and rebounded, of which the lead concentrate processing fee in Yunnan was reported to 1000-1300 tons / metal ton, a small number was reported to 1400 yuan / metal ton, and the rise in lead concentrate processing fees also provided certain objective conditions for the increase in production of lead smelting enterprises in September. On the whole, SMM expects that the national electrolytic lead production in September will increase by more than 10,000 tons to 283,500 tons. According to SMM research, this week (August 27 to September 2) SMM primary lead smelter weekly three provinces operating rate of 57.64%, this week's primary lead smelter operating rate increased by 6.44 percentage points compared with last week. According to SMM research, as of September 9, the total inventory of lead ingots in SMM five places reached 71,800 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons from last Friday (September 2) and an increase of 1,900 tons from This Monday (September 5). According to the survey, the production of primary lead smelting enterprises is stable, the supply is stable and increasing, while the recycled lead enterprises are due to loss factors, the supply of large enterprises is tightening, and the demand side procurement is biased towards primary lead. After the lead price recovered, the spot discount was added, and some enterprises had the willingness to deliver the warehouse, and the subsequent lead inventory was expected to rise. 【Operation Suggestion】 The dollar index shock correction, the color pu is now rising, the European Central Bank interest rate hike is in line with expectations, the nonferrous focus on supply disturbance general rise, but lead due to supply and demand slightly shorter inside and outside the disk correction. On the domestic fundamentals, the price of waste batteries tends to be stable and has not been lowered with the weakening of lead prices, while domestic lead production is expected to increase month-on-month in August and September. In terms of consumption, the sudden Sichuan earthquake and the epidemic in Chengdu have not affected the production of local battery enterprises, and the lead ingot trade has maintained normal operation. Domestic recycled refined lead profits narrowed, and some recycled lead smelters faced losses, and the cost support below Shanghai lead in the short term was obvious. The lead main contract continued to fluctuate mainly within the shock zone of 14700-15300, and the 15000 mark was lost, and the stage shock weakened. Follow up on inventory changes.
tin	【Market review】 This week, the main Contract of Shanghai Tin 2210 rebounded from the shock, closing at 178680 yuan / ton, up 7080 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.13%. [Important information] 1, the European Central Bank unprecedented interest rate hike of 75 basis points to suppress the dollar trend, but then the Fed Chairman Powell reiterated the position of continuing to raise interest rates to suppress inflation, so that the dollar once again gained support. 2. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at jackson hole's annual meeting that premature monetary policy easing is risky, suggesting that the Fed may continue to raise interest rates and keep interest rates high for some time to curb inflation. 3. Developing tin producer First Tin is working on two of its tin projects: Tellerhauser in Germany and Taronga in Australia. Because First Tin aims to launch both projects in 2025. Auxico Resources has signed an off-take agreement with Cuex Metal AG for its Massangana tailings reprocessing project in Brazil for all tin (3,600 tonnes of tin concentrate), which will last for five years. Cuex is a subsidiary of Shanghai Qunxian Industrial (Group) Co., Ltd., a Chinese commodities trading company. Osico believes it can produce 6,000 tonnes of cassiterite per year from the tailings of Masangana. 【Trading Strategy】 This week, the dollar index rose first and then suppressed, and pulled back sharply. The European energy crisis continues to ferment, and the domestic colored disk generally rebounds. On the supply side, the refined tin production capacity that was previously overhauled in June has been fully resumed in July and August, and the resumption of production capacity has also begun to be gradually put on the market. In terms of imports, with the slight recovery of the Shanghai-To-London ratio, the import profit window has also opened. On the whole, the supply side will show a gradually loose trend. On the demand side, the performance of different industries is quite different, the photovoltaic industry maintains a high growth rate, the export orders of solder companies decrease, and the domestic off-season effect appears, and the decline exceeds market expectations. The output of lead batteries continues to rise, and there is still a large room for development in the future. In terms of inventory, the inventory in the previous period has decreased, the LME inventory has remained high, and the SMM social inventory has been destocked from the previous month, providing certain support for tin prices. Refined tin is still fundamentally empty, the next three to four quarters of the resumption of production capacity will continue to increase, "golden nine silver ten" consumption season if there can not be a substantial increase, the overall will also show a pattern of oversupply. At present, spot transactions are relatively light, and customers' acceptance of high prices is low, but refineries also have positive price sentiment. Technically, the disk surface broke down, fell below 170000 and then rebounded to near 180000, macro guidance on the disk surface is stronger, the medium and long-term downward trend is not exhausted.
aluminium	【Market review】 This week, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum, AL2210, oscillated upwards, and the overall center of gravity of fluctuations has shifted upwards. The main contract 2210 closed at 18965 yuan / ton, up 4.72% weekly. 【Important information】 On the macro side, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates sharply, and the dollar index has pulled back significantly. Energy prices in Europe are further rising, and aluminum smelting capacity is further reduced. The shadow of power curtailment on the domestic side still exists. On the supply side, the production capacity suspended in Sichuan due to power curtailment is expected to resume production in September, but it will take 1-2 months from the resumption of production to production. In addition, there are rumors in the market that Yunnan may reduce the load of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the province by 20-30% due to insufficient hydropower. If true, it will form a strong boost to aluminum prices. On the demand side, after the traditional off-season has passed, it will usher in the peak demand season of "Golden Nine Silver Ten", but the growth is relatively slow in the recent downstream construction. In addition, in terms of terminals, the policy guidance of real estate income in "guaranteeing the delivery of housing" is expected to start construction better than in the second and third quarters, which is in line with our judgment of low before and after the beginning of the year, but the increase is relatively limited under the role of the general environment. Traditional cars in the automotive industry maintain positive growth, but after digesting the orders that were placed and placed due to the impact of the epidemic in the second quarter, the growth rate is expected to slow down. The field of new energy vehicles will be the highlight of development, and it is expected to continue the trend of rapid growth. In terms of imports and exports, due to the recent recovery in the Shanghai-London ratio, the import window is expected to open to a certain extent, which is also more unfavorable for exports. In addition, poor foreign demand has also led to a decrease in the number of orders from export-oriented enterprises. In terms of inventory, the current domestic exchange inventory rebounded slightly, while the social inventory basically maintained a low sideways shock, which had a neutral impact on aluminum prices. The foreign Lun aluminum inventory has a long-term decline to stop the decline and stabilize, and there is a slight rebound, which has a bearish impact on the price of Lun aluminum. 【Trading strategy】 On the whole, the current Shanghai aluminum disk surface is affected by macro and production cut rumors, the fluctuation is more intense, it is recommended to hold more short-term orders, you can consider the inter-period arbitrage strategy, short near month and far month. The pressure level above the main contract is 20000 and the support level below is 17000. In terms of options, it is recommended that deep imaginary options can be sold to earn additional premium gains.
nickel	Nickel prices rebounded strongly this week, as high as 189680, closing at 189000, up 16.95%. 【Important information】 1, September 7, 2022, Brazilian mining company Vale said that due to the strong demand for electric vehicle batteries, by 2030, global demand for nickel will increase by 44% compared with this year's expectations. The company said in a statement that with the energy transition, demand for nickel is expected to increase rapidly over the decade, with new forecast demand reaching 6.2 million tonnes. The company also estimates that its medium-term nickel production should reach 230,000-245,000 tons/year, compared with a forecast of 190,000 tons/year in 2022. The growth in nickel supply was primarily driven by the company's operations in Indonesia and Canada, as well as Australia. On September 6, 2022, nickel mining company PT Vale Indonesia signed an investment agreement with a subsidiary of China's Shandong Xinhai Technology Co., Ltd. and China Baowu Iron & Steel Group Co., Ltd. to develop a processing plant in Sulawesi. Vale CEO Febriany Eddy said the project, located in Bahodopi in the Morowali district, will cost about $2.1 billion. Speaking at the signing ceremony, Febriany said: "With this signing, we can continue and accelerate the construction of this area to be completed by 2025 at the latest." Under the agreement, the two companies will form a joint venture, with Vale holding a 49 percent stake. Vale Chief Financial Officer Bernardus Irmanto told reporters that Shandong Xinhai and Baowu will jointly control 51% through their subsidiary TISCO .Tsteel. Bernardus said the project will produce between 73,000 tonnes and 80,000 tonnes of ferronickel per annum, noting that partners are also discussing the possibility of adding stainless steel plants later. 【Trading Strategy】 Nickel price main contract rebounded strongly to a new high in recent times. The ECB's 75bp rate hike cashed in, while the Fed's expectation of a 75bp rate hike also tended to be strong. Domestic CPIPPI has shown less than expected, the domestic stable economy, credit easing is expected to heat up relatively, while overseas non-ferrous metal leaders also have supply-side disturbances caused by energy and other problems, non-ferrous resonance rises, and due to the expected difference in the internal and external monetary environment, non-ferrous metals or performance as a strong internal and external weak trend, Shanghai-London ratio rebounded. From the supply point of view, the output of electrolytic nickel in August fell slightly from the previous month, slightly rebounded in September, the import window is still expected to open, nickel pig iron domestic production was reduced, and the recent transaction price rose steadily. LME shock destocking continued, nickel bean stocks in bonded areas also declined, and stage demand improved. On the demand side, the power rationing alleviates the downstream processing of stainless steel and gradually recovers, continues to destock, demand improves, and prices pick up. The demand for nickel sulfate in new energy power batteries has rebounded, and nickel beans have been dissolved for a time. Nickel 2210 recent main fluctuation range between 16-18.5 million yuan, resonance rebound nickel fluctuations are larger upper edge almost broken, the upper pressure or to around 190,000 yuan, but pay attention to the risk of holiday fluctuations, it is advisable to light warehouse festival. The main post-holiday risk event is the impact of changes in US inflation data and interest rate hike expectations, focusing on further movements in the US dollar index.
stainless steel	Stainless steel rebounded sharply this week. It rose as high as 17,060 and finally closed at 17,005, up 8.69%. 【Important information】 1, Mysteel research, in September, the domestic 40 stainless steel mills crude steel production of 2.6701 million tons, an increase of 284,900 tons, is expected to increase by 11.94% month-on-month, September the whole series of growth. 2. According to Mysteel research, on September 8, 2022, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream market in the country was 738,600 tons, down 9.77% week-on-week and up 3.00% year-on-year. Among them, in the cold-rolled 300 series, the total inventory of stainless steel was 369,800 tons, down 10.84% week-on-week and 8.49% year-on-year. In terms of sub-markets, the total market volume of Wuxi was 394,100 tons, down 11.86% week-on-week, the total market of Foshan was 127,300 tons, down 7% week-on-week, and the total regional market was 217,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 7.42%. In terms of the 300 series, the total inventory of stainless steel was 369,800 tons, down 10.84% week-on-week and 8.49% year-on-year. This week, the digestion of 300 series resources is obvious, which is reflected in the Wuxi market and the Foshan market, and the regional market has increased slightly. Wuxi market this week affected by the typhoon ship arrival delay, the arrival of goods as a whole is less, after the rise in superimposed spot prices, merchants procurement heat is higher, private and large factory resources digestion is obvious. Foshan market this week hot and cold rolling resources have been digested, mainly cold rolled resources to the library, reflected in YJ and DL and other resources. The overall shipment of the regional market this week is acceptable, and some merchants have seen the market rise and have replenished the warehouse, so the inventory has increased slightly compared with last week. 3, stainless steel futures warehouse receipt stainless steel 7736, this week's warehouse receipt increased by 6151. The newly established delivery warehouse in Guangdong continues to generate increments. 【Trading Strategy】 Stainless steel has rebounded significantly, close to breaking through the upper edge of the recent major shock area, and the trend is strong. Weekly inventory data shows that 300 series stainless steel continues to reduce inventory, and the recent improvement in demand has brought support. Inner Mongolia ferrochrome production has some supply disturbances, nickel pig iron recently rose to 1300 yuan / nickel, and stainless steel plant profits have also been repaired, the willingness to prepare materials has rebounded. Overseas stainless steel factories have reduced production due to energy problems and natural disasters, and the export of stainless steel from the mainland is expected to improve. The early fluctuation range of the stainless steel main contract was 14700-16500, and the upper pressure level was near 17000 yuan. Futures have strengthened significantly, basis shocks have narrowed, intraday negatives have appeared, futures warehouse receipts have rebounded significantly, and further increases in warehouse receipts have been concerned. If there is a continuous recovery, it may limit the recovery space of stainless steel.
screw thread	【Market review】 Futures market: The main contract of rebar futures has a strong shock this week, up 4.7%. Spot market: the regional differentiation of demand performance is prominent, although south China is affected by the epidemic, but only limited to Shenzhen, the scope of influence is limited, the frequency of resources outgoing and flowing in north China and northeast China has increased significantly compared with the previous period, the market trading atmosphere has improved, and the southwest has been affected by geological disasters and epidemics, transportation has been blocked, and market transactions have been blocked. As of Friday, prices in Beijing and Shanghai rose to 4,020 yuan and 4,040 yuan / ton, respectively. 【Important information】 The executive meeting of the State Council deployed policies to strengthen support for employment and entrepreneurship, and support the platform economy to stabilize employment; Decide to subsidize the phased financial discount of equipment modernization loans in some fields and increase credit support for social service industries; According to the law, the special debt limit of more than 500 billion yuan has been revitalized in the local government since 2019, and all localities should complete the issuance before the end of October to give priority to supporting projects under construction. According to public news reports, South Korea's POSCO will resume production of 3 blast furnaces within two days. Mysteel understands that the blast furnace can resume production in recent days, but the impact of the rolling line is more serious, and it is expected that it will take a long time. It is estimated that if the blast furnace impact is 4-10 days, POHANG molten iron is expected to reduce by a total of 150,000-360,000 tons during the period. 【Trading strategy】 This week, the thread stopped falling and rebounded, the spot rose slightly, the transaction improved significantly, and the consumption showed signs of recovery after the high temperature. Steel Union data show that the weekly output of threads increased by 130,000 tons month-on-month, which is close to the high point of the first half of the year, the electric furnace continues to lose money, the profit of the blast furnace thread is better than that of hot coils, there is a conversion situation, but the scrap consumption is still low and the scrap inventory of steel mills has not been effectively increased, so after the sharp recovery of molten iron production, short-term scrap has certain restrictions on the increase in production. Apparent consumption reached 3.21 million tons, the second highest value since July, the rate of destocking increased compared with last week, but significantly lower than in July-August, the total inventory decreased by 3.7 million tons year-on-year, and the increase in consumption made the inventory-to-sales ratio fall more. According to the statistics of the century-old construction network, in addition to the southwest and northwest regions, cement shipments increased last week, and the utilization rate of concrete capacity also rose slightly this week, and the construction improved, but the recent severe epidemic situation in many places in China, under the influence of multiple factors in September, the sustainability of demand recovery remains to be seen, the high point may be limited, in the case of high production, the short-term maintenance of a weak balance between supply and demand. On the whole, the domestic policy is still active, especially the infrastructure end, the recent Zhengzhou continues to implement the baojiao building, the peak season construction has a certain boost, this week's consumption is strong but because of the mid-autumn festival impact, so it is also necessary to pay attention to the continuity, after the production increase, the market has signs of shifting from weak supply and demand to supply and demand, more favorable raw materials, from the cost side to support the thread price, but the short-term rebound space for threads under high output is still cautious, 10 and 01 contracts pay attention to the pressure of 4000 and 3800 yuan, more than a single cautious hold. In terms of arbitrage, the output increase is still slow, and the inter-period arbitrage is temporarily waiting and seeing, waiting for 1/5 of the positive set after the acceleration of the library.
Hot rolls	Futures market: Hot coils oscillated upward this week, with the 2301 contract rising 3.73%. Spot market: This week, the spot prices of various varieties of steel have slightly explored, and the market sentiment has warmed up. Among them, the hot coil in Tianjin increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with last week, the price of hot coil in Beijing was flat compared with last week, and the price of hot coil in Tangshan increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of hot coil in Handan area increased by 50 yuan / ton from last week, and the price of hot coil in Shijiazhuang increased by 20 yuan / ton from last week. 【Important Information】 1. On September 8, the Association looked forward to the national passenger car market in September and said that it is expected to achieve the Golden Nine Silver Ten. 2. On September 7, the General Administration of Customs: China exported 308,000 vehicles in August, an increase of 47.37% year-on-year. 3. On September 9, data from the China Automobile Association showed that in August, automobile production and sales reached 2.395 million units and 2.383 million units, down 2.4% and 1.5% respectively month-on-month, and up 38.3% and 32.1% year-on-year, respectively. From January to August, automobile production and sales reached 16.967 million units and 16.86 million units, up 4.8% and 1.7% year-on-year, respectively, the first production and sales growth since the second quarter. 4. From September 7, 2022 to January to August 2022, a total of 179109 excavators were sold, down 30.9% year-on-year; of which 109,470 units were domestic, down 49.9% year-on-year; exports were 69,639 units, an increase of 70.1% year-on-year. 【Arbitrage strategy】There is still a certain room for long coil difference, the weekly output of hot coil has risen rapidly, and the certainty of hot coil positive sleeve has declined, and it is recommended to leave the market and wait and see. 【Trading Strategy】 The futures price drives the market speculation, and the current hot coil spot transaction is tepid. There are industrial stimulus policies in the relevant domestic downstream, which are expected to turn better, but the demand and price reality are still weak. Weekly output of plate mills was flat, inventories continued to fall, and apparent demand continued to rise month-on-month. The overall economic data is weak, real estate and consumption have improved to a certain extent in August, but the continuity remains to be seen, and the recurrence of the epidemic may have a certain impact on consumption. Short-term LPR exceeds expectations interest rate cuts are bullish sentiment, the reality of high temperature is over, demand or will turn better. Macro sentiment has eased to a certain extent, and plate sentiment has picked up. Technically, the hot coil main 01 contract structure constructs the 3550-4050 range. Operationally, temporarily look at the range idea, wait for the steel mill to give a certain profit after the middle line short order re-entry, short-term stand 3800 next resistance near 3930, more than a single cautious hold.
Manganese silicon	【Market review】 Futures market: The manganese silicon disk bottomed out this week, and there was a significant strengthening near the weekend, and the main contract rose 5% to close at 7214. Spot market: The price of manganese silicon spot market has remained stable as a whole recently, and the prices in some major production areas have been slightly lowered this week. As of September 8, the price of manganese silicon in the main producing areas of Inner Mongolia was reported at 7100 yuan / ton, flat week-on-week, the price of the main production areas in Guizhou was reported at 7150 yuan / ton, flat week-on-week, and the main production areas in Guangxi were reported at 7150 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton week-on-week. 【Important information】 The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of Baotou City, Inner Mongolia issued a notice on printing and distributing the "Guidelines for Capacity Replacement in The Ferroalloy Industry in Baotou City (Trial Implementation)". It is mentioned that the total production capacity of ferroalloys is controlled, and new production capacity projects are no longer approved, and 25,000 kVA and below ore heat furnaces (except special ferroalloys) will be withdrawn in principle by the end of 2022. For those who really need to build, the capacity reduction and replacement shall be implemented according to 1.25:1. The first round of coke reduction in Shanxi began, and the current round was lowered by 100-110 yuan / ton, and the profits of coke enterprises were compressed again. China's comprehensive PMI fell from 52.5 to 51.7 in August, the economy slowed down overall, the manufacturing PMI rose from 49 to 49.4, the rate of contraction slowed slightly, exceeding market expectations of 49.2, non-manufacturing PMI fell from 53.8 to 52.6, higher than the market expectation of 52.3 Caixin August manufacturing PMI 49.5, the previous value of 50.4, fell below the boom-bust line, indicating that the manufacturing industry has re-contracted after two months of expansion. In August, the PMI of Hebei's steel industry rose 17.3% month-on-month to 54.2%, and for the first time in 16 months, it stood above the boom-bust line. The new orders index was 58.1%, up 22.1% from the previous month. On Friday, the output of major steel grades increased by 142,600 tons month-on-month, and the demand for manganese silicon increased by 2.33% month-on-month to 145,410 tons. East China and other places of steel recruitment launched, a steel mill in Hunan in September silicon manganese price of 7380 yuan / ton, the number of 10,000 tons, acceptance tax included to the factory; A steel mill in Jiangxi is priced at 7360 yuan / ton, 7000 tons, and the acceptance includes tax to the factory. A steel mill in Guangdong bid 7400 yuan / ton for this round of manganese silicon, and the current round of production capacity is 4000 tons. In July, manganese ore imports were 2.6225 million tons, an increase of 10.89% month-on-month and a decrease of 209,400 tons year-on-year. The central bank launched a 400 billion yuan 1-year MLF operation, the interest rate was cut by 10 basis points, and 600 billion yuan of MLF expired in August. The 1-year LPR was revised down by 5 basis points to 3.65% and the 15-year LPR was revised down by 15 basis points to 4.3%. Consumer prices rose 2.7% year-on-year in July 2022, 2.9% expected, 2.5% in the previous month and 0.5% month-on-month. Industrial producer prices rose 4.2% year-on-year in July 2022, compared with expectations of 4.9%, the previous value of 6.1%, down 1.3% month-on-month. Inner Mongolia clarifies the upper limit of production capacity in key industries. Resolutely implement the requirements for curbing the blind development of the "two supremes" projects. The "14th Five-Year Plan" clearly states that the production capacity of steel is 36 million tons and that of ferroalloys is 14 million tons. The six departments of Ningxia jointly issued the "Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Two High Project Management Catalogue (2022 Edition)", which aims to combine the actual situation, refine the scope of the two high industries, scientifically and accurately manage the two high projects, and curb the blind development of the two high projects. Inner Mongolia plans to complete ultra-low emission transformation of more than 80% of the steel production capacity of the whole region by 2025, the energy consumption per unit of regional GDP in the region will be reduced by 15% compared with 2020, the total energy consumption will be reasonably controlled, and the proportion of coal consumption in the whole region will drop to less than 75% by 2025. Southeast Asian Steel Association said crude steel production in Southeast Asia could increase by 90.8 million tonnes by 2026, an increase of nearly 1.3 times. Crude steel production in Southeast Asia in 2020 is 71.8 million tonnes/year, and if all projects are completed on schedule, total crude steel production in the region is expected to increase to 162.6 million tonnes/year by 2026. According to Mysteel survey, the average silicon manganese inventory in domestic steel mills in August was 18.56 days, a decrease of 2.88% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 11.41%. This week, the national supply of manganese silicon 148365 tons, an increase of 2.05% week-on-week. Mysteel counted the sample operating rate (capacity utilization rate) of 121 independent silicon manganese enterprises in the country as 39.82%, up 1.33 percentage points week-on-week; the average daily output was 21195 tons, an increase of 425 tons week-on-week. In the latest period, 63 independent manganese silicon sample manufacturers had inventory of 222,000 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous month. Hegang steel production volume in September was 19,900 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous month. The bidding price of this round is 7350 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than the first round of inquiry price, down 50 yuan / ton from August. According to worldsteel's latest forecast, global steel demand will continue to increase by 0.4% to 1,840.2 million tonnes in 2022, following a 2.7% increase in 2021. Growth continued to increase by 2.2% to 1,881.4 million tonnes in 2023. UMK's Quoted Mn36% South African Semi-Carbonate For Chinese Manganese Ore Shipments in September was $4.5/tonne, down $0.6/tonne sequentially. Juptier's Mn36.5% South African semi-carbonate in September was $4.5/tonne, down $0.6/tonne month-on-month. Conmerao's block loading price for China in October was $4.7/tonne, down $0.8/tonne month-on-month. South32 quoted $5.05/mt for China's high-grade Australian blocks in October, down $0.97/tonne month-on-month, and South Africa's semi-carbonated 4.00/tonne, down $0.55/tonne month-on-month. The manganese silicon disk bottomed out this week and strengthened significantly near the weekend. Spot market prices are stable and falling. The price of this round of steel bidding of the mainstream factories in the north was finalized at 7350 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton from the first round of inquiry prices, down 50 yuan / ton from August. Form a short-term guide to spot market prices. This week, the finished timber table needs to continue to rise, gradually showing the characteristics of the peak season, the increase in the range of finished timber to the warehouse, and the black system is boosted by this collective strengthening. At present, the finished timber inventory is at a low level, with the release of peak season demand, the follow-up price elasticity is better, the profit of steel mills is expected to appear a certain range of active repair, and the positive feedback on the price of the charge end is enhanced. At present, some steel mills have reached a state of full production, and the increase in the output of major steel grades has narrowed on Friday, and the demand for manganese silicon has further improved. In August, the average silicon manganese inventory in domestic steel mills was 18.56 days, a decrease of 2.88% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 11.41%. In September, there was a certain demand for replenishment of steel, and the current round of production capacity of mainstream factories in the north increased by 200 tons to 19900 tons month-on-month, and some steel mills appeared to make up for the recruitment. Ningxia region has a strong willingness to hold up spot prices. As the current profit level of manganese silicon manufacturers is still low, the overall willingness of manufacturers to resume production is not strong. This week, the national supply of manganese silicon recovered slightly, an increase of 2.05% week-on-week, but the recovery speed of the supply side was not as fast as the demand side. Manganese silicon fundamentals continue to improve. In terms of cost, the price of coke has dropped, and the spot price of manganese ore continues to be under pressure. 【Trading strategy】 The fundamentals of manganese silicon have gradually strengthened recently, steel mill profits are expected to improve in the future, a new round of steel moves is opened, and manganese silicon prices are expected to rebound with the charge end. 【Arbitrage strategy】 The recovery rate of the production of the five major steel grades has accelerated, and the demand side of ferroalloys has continued to improve, boosting the valuation of contracts in recent months. At the same time, terminal demand is about to come out of the off-season, the profit level of steel mills has a certain room for repair, and the positive feedback on ferroalloy prices will be enhanced. Affected by power factors and low profits, the supply side of ferroalloys has been suppressed in the short term, and the support for near-month contracts is stronger than that of far months. On the whole, there is an opportunity for a phased positive set between the manganese silicon 1-5 contract. Since the double control target of energy consumption was proposed last year, the price elasticity of ferrosilicon itself has been better than that of manganese silicon, which means that in the falling market of ferroalloys, the ferrosilicon-manganese silicon price spread usually tends to converge, and the increase in ferrosilicon is more obvious in the process of rising. In the short term, the terminal demand for finished products will usher in a recovery, the profit margins of steel mills have been repaired, the supply and demand fundamentals of ferroalloys have improved, and the price has the momentum to move up in stages. The subsequent ferrosilicon-manganese silicon price spread has room for further expansion.
ferrosilicon	【Market review】 Futures market: Ferrosilicon plate rebounded this week, and the main contract rose 6.3% to close at 8250. Spot market: The ferrosilicon spot market remained stable this week. As of September 8, the main producing area of Ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia reported 7650 yuan / ton, flat week-on-week, Ningxia Zhongwei 7700 yuan / ton, week-on-week flat, Gansu Lanzhou reported 7700 yuan / ton, week-on-week flat. 【Important information】 The first round of coke reduction in Shanxi was opened, and this round was lowered by 100-110 yuan / ton, and the profits of coke enterprises were compressed again. China's comprehensive PMI fell from 52.5 to 51.7 in August, the economy slowed down overall, the manufacturing PMI rose from 49 to 49.4, the rate of contraction slowed slightly, exceeding market expectations of 49.2, non-manufacturing PMI fell from 53.8 to 52.6, higher than the market expectation of 52.3 Caixin August manufacturing PMI 49.5, the previous value of 50.4, fell below the boom-bust line, indicating that the manufacturing industry has re-contracted after two months of expansion. In August, the PMI of Hebei's steel industry rose 17.3% month-on-month to 54.2%, and for the first time in 16 months, it stood above the boom-bust line. The new orders index was 58.1%, up 22.1% from the previous month. On Friday, the output of major steel grades increased by 142,600 tons month-on-month, and the demand for ferrosilicon increased by 1.92% month-on-month to 25,229.7 tons. 99.90% magnesium ingots in Shaanxi region mainstream quotation ex-factory cash including tax 24000-24500 yuan / ton, market transactions have increased. According to customs data, the total export volume of ferrosilicon in July 2022 was 60278.118 tons, an increase of 429.434 tons from June, an increase of 0.72% month-on-month, better than expected. The central bank launched a 400 billion yuan 1-year MLF operation, the interest rate was cut by 10 basis points, and 600 billion yuan of MLF expired in August. The 1-year LPR was revised down by 5 basis points to 3.65% and the 15-year LPR was revised down by 15 basis points to 4.3%. Consumer prices rose 2.7% year-on-year in July 2022, 2.9% expected, 2.5% in the previous month and 0.5% month-on-month. Industrial producer prices rose 4.2% year-on-year in July 2022, compared with expectations of 4.9%, the previous value of 6.1%, down 1.3% month-on-month. Inner Mongolia clarifies the upper limit of production capacity in key industries. Resolutely implement the requirements for curbing the blind development of the "two supremes" projects. The "14th Five-Year Plan" clearly states that the production capacity of steel is 36 million tons and that of ferroalloys is 14 million tons. Hegang Ferrosilicon purchased 2,400 tons of steel in September, an increase of 300 tons from the previous month. According to Mysteel survey, the average silicon iron inventory in domestic steel mills in August was 16.96 days, down 13.07% month-on-month and 16.54% year-on-year. Retail sales in the passenger car market reached 1.768 million units in July, up 17% year-on-year and down 9% month-on-month. In the latest period, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon sample manufacturers was 61,700 tons, down 11.47% from the previous month. Mysteel statistics in the latest period of the country's 136 independent ferrosilicon sample enterprises operating rate (capacity utilization rate) of 38.38%, up 0.41 percentage points week-on-week, the average daily output of 13376 tons, down 220 tons week-on-week. This week, the national ferrosilicon production was 93,000 tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons week-on-week. This week, the finished timber table needs to continue to rise, gradually showing the characteristics of the peak season, and the extent of the destocking of the finished timber has increased. The black system was boosted by this and collectively strengthened, and the silicon iron disk surface rebounded. After the continuous inverse seasonal de-seasonalization in the off-season, the current inventory level of finished timber is generally low. With the release of demand in the peak season, the price elasticity of finished products is better, and the profits of steel mills are expected to be actively repaired, and the price support for charge end will be strengthened. In August, the average iron and silicon inventory in domestic steel mills was 16.96 days, down 13.07% month-on-month and 16.54% year-on-year. The production of the five major steel grades continued to pick up this week, with demand for ferrosilicon increasing by 1.92% month-on-month to 25229.7 tons. Steel mills have a certain demand for ferrosilicon replenishment, and the mainstream ferrosilicon plant in the north purchased 2400 tons of steel in September, an increase of 300 tons month-on-month. The price of this round of steel moves of mainstream factories in the south is concentrated near 8,000 yuan / ton, and the market is waiting for the price guidance of this round of steel moves of mainstream factories in the north. Magnesium metal prices have fallen again recently, but downstream transactions show signs of improvement. July ferrosilicon export data was higher than market expectations. Ferrosilicon's current low profit level makes manufacturers not willing to start work, the recent ferrosilicon supply side remains stable, no new start and stop furnace, this week's national ferrosilicon output of 93,000 tons, week-on-week decrease of 0.2 million tons. Ferrosilicon fundamentals are further strengthened. The first round of coke reduction in Shanxi opened, and the current round was lowered by 100-110 yuan / ton, and there was short-term downward pressure on the cost of ferrosilicon. 【Trading strategy】 Ferrosilicon manufacturers are not willing to start work in the short term, but the output of the five major steel grades continues to rise, a new round of steel moves is opened, and supply and demand are improved in stages. With the terminal demand out of the off-season, the profit margin of steel mills improves, and the price of ferrosilicon has a certain rebound space in the short term. 【Arbitrage strategy】 The output of the five major steel grades has further rebounded, and the demand side of ferroalloys has improved, boosting the valuation of contracts in recent months. At the same time, terminal demand is about to come out of the off-season, steel mill profits are expected to further improve, and the positive feedback on ferroalloy prices will be enhanced. Constrained by power factors and low profits, the supply side of ferroalloys has been suppressed recently, and the support for near-month contracts is stronger than that of far months. On the whole, there is an opportunity for a phased positive set between the ferrosilicon 1-5 contract. Since the double control target of energy consumption was proposed last year, the price elasticity of ferrosilicon itself has been better than that of manganese silicon, which means that in the falling market of ferroalloys, the ferrosilicon-manganese silicon price spread usually tends to converge, and the increase in ferrosilicon is more obvious in the process of rising. In the short term, the terminal demand for finished products will usher in a recovery, the profit margins of steel mills have been repaired, the supply and demand fundamentals of ferroalloys have improved, and the price has the momentum to move up in stages. The subsequent ferrosilicon-manganese silicon price spread has room for further expansion.
iron ore	Futures market: Iron ore disk this week shock strengthened, the main contract rose 7.9% to close at 720.5. Spot market: Iron ore spot market prices have rebounded collectively this week. As of September 8, the spot price of PB powder in Qingdao Port was reported at 740 yuan / ton, up 17 yuan / ton week-on-week, card powder was reported at 838 yuan / ton, up 11 yuan / ton week-on-week, and Yang Di powder was reported at 681 yuan / ton, down 5 yuan / ton week-on-week. 【Fundamentals and important information】 In August, the domestic M2 growth rate was 12.2%, the previous value was 12%, the M1 growth rate was 6.1%, the previous value was 6.7%, and the M0 growth rate was 14.3%. In August, rmb loans were 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 39 billion yuan year-on-year. In August, social financing was 2.43 trillion yuan, a sharp increase from the previous value of 756.1 billion yuan, which was better than expected. The special debt line of more than 500 billion yuan that has been deposited since 2019 is expected to be issued before the end of October, giving priority to supporting projects under construction. On September 6, the total inventory of China's 45 port iron ore ports was 137.9381 million tons, down 1.82 million tons from the previous month, and the inventory of 47 ports fell by 1.35 million tons to 144.4181 million tons. The first round of coke reduction in Shanxi began, and the current round was lowered by 100-110 yuan / ton, and the profits of coke enterprises were compressed again. China's comprehensive PMI fell from 52.5 to 51.7 in August, the economy slowed down overall, the manufacturing PMI rose from 49 to 49.4, the rate of contraction slowed slightly, exceeding market expectations of 49.2, non-manufacturing PMI fell from 53.8 to 52.6, higher than the market expectation of 52.3 Caixin August manufacturing PMI 49.5, the previous value of 50.4, fell below the boom-bust line, indicating that the manufacturing industry has re-contracted after two months of expansion. In August, the PMI of Hebei's steel industry rose 17.3% month-on-month to 54.2%, and for the first time in 16 months, it stood above the boom-bust line. The new orders index was 58.1%, up 22.1% from the previous month. From January to July, the profit of the automobile manufacturing industry was 273.94 billion yuan, down 14.4% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 11.1 percentage points smaller than that of January to June. From January to July, the profit of the national steel industry fell by 80.8% year-on-year. In August, the efficiency of steel mills improved slightly, some enterprises resumed production, and the average daily output of crude steel in August is expected to be close to 2.7 million tons, and there is still room for further production in September. The US Markit manufacturing PMI was 51.3 in August, the lowest since July 2020, and the eurozone's preliminary manufacturing PMI in August was 49.7, the lowest in nearly 26 months. The 1-year LPR was revised down by 5 basis points to 3.65% and the 15-year LPR was revised down by 15 basis points to 4.3%. The central bank launched a 400 billion yuan 1-year MLF operation, the interest rate was cut by 10 basis points, and 600 billion yuan of MLF expired in August. Global crude steel production in 64 countries in July was 149.3 million tonnes, down 6.5% year-on-year. China's crude steel production in July was 81.43 million tons, down 6.4% year-on-year, and pig iron production was 70.49 million tons, down 3.6% year-on-year. In July, the output of raw iron ore in mainland China was 80.227 million tons, down 3.5% year-on-year, and the cumulative output from January to July was 572.318 million tons, down 3.3% year-on-year. In July, China imported 91.244 million tons of iron ore and its concentrate, an increase of 2.275 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year. From January to July, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrate was 626.823 million tons, down 3.4% year-on-year. BHP Billiton reported its highest annual profit on record, with the company's underlying earnings reaching $23.8 billion in the fiscal year ended June, up nearly 40 percent from the previous fiscal year. From January to July, real estate development investment was 7,946.2 billion yuan, down 6.4% year-on-year, and the area of new housing starts was 760.67 million square meters, down 36.1%. Fixed asset investment increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from January to June, and increased by 0.16% month-on-month in July. According to the Forecast of the China Metallurgical Industry Planning Institute, China's steel consumption this year is expected to fall by 0.7% to 947 million tons. Consumer prices rose 2.7% year-on-year in July 2022, 2.9% expected, 2.5% in the previous month and 0.5% month-on-month. Industrial producer prices rose 4.2% year-on-year in July 2022, compared with expectations of 4.9%, the previous value of 6.1%, down 1.3% month-on-month. The global manufacturing PMI was 51.2% in July, down 1.1 percentage points month-on-month, down for two consecutive months and lowest since July 2020. In July, China exported 6.671 million tons of steel, down 886,000 tons from the previous month and 17.7% year-on-year. From January to July, the cumulative export of steel products was 40.073 million tons, down 6.9% year-on-year. Mainland steel exports in the second half of the year or will continue to decrease, is expected to restore the annual export volume to the normal level of about 60 million tons in previous years, imports of 10 million-12 million tons. The latest global iron ore shipment volume was 30.968 million tons, an increase of 2% month-on-month. The total shipment of 26 million tons of 19 MTR mines in Australia and Pakistan increased by 467,000 tons from the previous month. Among them, the shipment of Australian mines decreased by 699,000 tons to 16.926 million tons month-on-month, and the volume of shipments to China increased by 223,000 tons to 14.739 million tons. Mine shipments in Brazil rose 1.166 million tonnes sequentially to 9.075 million tonnes, a new high this year. In the latest period, the arrival volume of 47 port iron ore was 18.936 million tons, a decrease of 5.016 million tons month-on-month, and the arrival volume of 45 ports was 18.244 million tons, a decrease of 4.927 million tons. The decline in arrivals in the areas along the river is more obvious. NMDC plans to produce 46 million tonnes of iron ore in fiscal year 2023, up 10% year-on-year. The company's production and sales in fiscal 2022 were 42.19 million tons and 40.56 million tons, respectively. Iron ore has strengthened this week, with spot market prices rebounding en masse. The finished timber table needs to continue to rise, gradually showing the characteristics of the peak season, the extent of the increase in the number of finished timber to the warehouse, and the black system is boosted by this collective strengthening. The fading of high temperatures has made the downstream construction to a certain extent better, and the demand for steel at the infrastructure end is expected to rebound in September. The special debt line of more than 500 billion yuan that has been deposited since 2019 is expected to be issued before the end of October, giving priority to supporting projects under construction. Mainstream traders building materials transactions have recently shown a gradual amplification trend, and the hot coils in East China have also been significantly dematerialized this week, and the enthusiasm of traders to participate is high. After the continuous inverse seasonalization of the off-season, the current inventory level of finished timber is generally low, with the improvement of downstream demand supply and demand may appear stage mismatch, finished timber price elasticity is expected to be better, steel mills profit peak season is expected to appear a certain range of active repair. The profitability of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills was 52.38%, up 1.73% month-on-month. At present, the supply of scrap steel is tight, the operating rate of electric furnaces is at a low level in recent years, and the recent blast furnaces have continued to resume production, and the average daily production of molten iron continues to increase this week. The actual demand for iron ore continues to improve, port spot transactions tend to be active, and the recovery speed of the average port volume on Sundays has accelerated. This week, the arrival of foreign mines has dropped significantly, and the port inventory has been significantly dematerialized. The fundamentals of iron ore have improved in stages, the current iron ore inventory level in steel mills is at a relatively low level, and there is a demand for replenishment of iron ore under the continuous resumption of molten iron production. 【Trading strategy】 The peak season is expected to gradually cash in, the terminal consumption of finished products is expected to improve in stages, the current low inventory of finished products, the follow-up price elasticity is better, and the profits of steel mills are expected to actively expand. The level of iron ore inventory in steel mills is at a low level, and there is a demand for replenishment. The RMB exchange rate is under short-term pressure, and the iron ore disk has a phased rebound momentum. 【Arbitrage strategy】 With the gradual fading of high temperature weather, the recent demand for finished product terminals will gradually come out of the off-season, and the profit margins of steel mills are expected to expand actively in the future. Iron ore price elasticity is larger, terminal demand to improve the positive feedback of the black industry chain price after the opening of the iron ore price increase is expected to be better than the thread, you can try to sell the snail ore ratio at a high price. The recent iron ore contract has ended the previous near-weak and far-strong pattern, driven by the recovery of finished product consumption and the expectation of steel mill profit recovery, the near-month contract premium is expected to continue to strengthen in the short term. 1-5 Between contracts, you can try a phased positive set.
glass	【Market review】 This week' glass futures are running strongly, and the main 01 contract rose 6.47% to close at 1515 yuan. 【Important information】 Spot, this week's float glass market is weak to finish, some regional manufacturers prices are loose, trading bias is general. At present, the market digests social inventory, regional and manufacturer shipment differences, price saving advantage shipping preferences, so recently some regional manufacturers have adjusted their prices according to their own situation. Short-term expectations of improvement are expected to be weak, and production capacity is expected to gradually shrink, but the short-term market is still under pressure, and it is expected that the short-term continuation of the weak finishing pattern. There have been successive reductions in supply in the near future. As of this Thursday, there were a total of 304 float glass production lines nationwide, 256 in production, and a total daily melting volume of 170,040 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from last week. Within the week, the production line was cold repaired 2 times, 3 were re-produced, and there was no ignition line. Guangdong Yingde Hongtai Glass Co., Ltd. 600T/D float method first-line native Pubai, September 6 released water cold repair. Tengzhou Jinjing Glass Co., Ltd. 600T/D second line on September 7 released water cooling repair. Tianjin Xinyi Glass Co., Ltd. 600T/D third line originated F green automotive glass, at the end of August to produce European gray for construction, September 2, the color. China Yaohua Glass Group Co., Ltd. 500T/D Hongyao first-line origin European ash, September 7 to produce golden tea. Tangshan Lanxin Glass Co., Ltd. 500T/D first-line switched to European gray production at the beginning of the month. On the demand side, the domestic float glass market demand is weak. The follow-up of terminal orders is insufficient, coupled with the impact of unexpected factors in local areas, the operation of processing plants is low. The overall market order situation failed to meet the peak season expectations, the market bearish mentality dominated, the enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches of the original film stock is poor, cautious on-demand procurement, maintain low stock. Glass production enterprise inventories rebounded for three consecutive weeks. As of September 8, the total inventory of production enterprises in key monitoring provinces was 65.87 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.43 million weight boxes over last week's inventory, an increase of 3.83%, and the number of inventory days was about 32.96 days, an increase of 1.59 days over last week. This week, the inventory of domestic float glass production enterprises continued to increase, the shipment of some areas was affected by special factors and slowed down in stages, the overall market trading atmosphere was weak, the enthusiasm for mid- and downstream stockpiling was not high, and the support of terminal orders was weak. Sub-regional point of view, the week in North China transactions are tepid, Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan part of the factory is still acceptable, inventory changes are not large, Shahe production and marketing has weakened month-on-month, manufacturers inventory has increased by different margins, the current total inventory of manufacturers is about 6.36 million weight boxes, traders inventory is still reduced, has now dropped to normal levels. 【Arbitrage strategy】 The completion and delivery of sold commercial housing has been highly valued, but it will take time for short-term new housing sales and newly started heating, and it is recommended to pay attention to the value of glass as a multi-head configuration in the arbitrage operation of the building materials sector. 【Trading Strategy】 With the enhancement of financial support for "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings and stabilizing people's livelihood", the efforts to ensure the completion of the project are superimposed with the phased recovery of demand after the high temperature season, and the probability of demand improving in the next period of time increases. The implementation of carbon peaking in the field of building materials or from the supply side or cost side to promote the stabilization and recovery of glass prices. Glass deep processing enterprises can choose the opportunity to seize the opportunity to buy hedging at a low level on the disk surface according to their needs to stabilize the processing profits.
crude	【Market review】 This week's internal and external crude oil shocks fell, and the main CONTRACT of SC crude oil closed at 672 yuan / barrel, down 3.36% weekly. 1. Biden administration officials are looking for ways to stem the spike in oil prices later this year, including the possible additional release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Further releases of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve are likely in the coming months, but the size of the possible releases is unclear. 2. U.S. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Adeyemo: The United States will set the initial "guidance price" for the oil price limit measures against Russia at $44 / barrel, and the United States will impose a price cap on Russian oil before December 5. Some non-G7 countries have agreed to join the ranks of limiting Russian oil prices. Some of the provisions imposing price caps on Russian oil will be introduced in the coming days. We will set the price cap above the russian production price. India is interested in continuing the dialogue on the issue of the russian oil price cap. 3. EIA Short-term Energy Outlook Report: Global crude oil demand growth is expected to be 2.1 million b/d in 2022, compared with 2.08 million b/d. Global crude oil demand growth is expected to be 1.97 million b/d in 2023, up from 2.06 million b/d previously. 4. EIA data shows that in the week ended September 2, 2022, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 8.84 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 330,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 100,000 barrels. Refinery operating rates were 90.9 percent, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous week. U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.1 million barrels per day, unchanged from the previous Sunday's average. U.S. oil reserves, released for nearly half a year, have fallen to their lowest level since the week of November 23, 1984. 【Arbitrage Strategy】 THE MONTHLY SPREAD OF SC CRUDE OIL HAS BEEN REPAIRED TO A REASONABLE RANGE, BUT THE BRENT-SC SPREAD HAS NARROWED AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT A RELATIVELY HIGH LEVEL IN THE NEAR TERM. 【Trading Strategy】 The United States plans to release the Strategic Petroleum Reserve again, and the fears of supply growth and weakening demand have increased. On the disk, short-term SC crude oil is expected to run weakly, and the overall volatility range is expected to decline, but geopolitical disturbances will inhibit the decline in oil prices.
bitumen	【Market review】 Futures market: This week's asphalt futures as a whole oscillated and fell, and the main contract closed at 3759 yuan / ton, down 1.29% weekly. Spot market: This week, the quotation of refineries in East China, Shandong, South China and other places rose slightly, and the market as a whole has remained stable since then. At present, the mainstream transaction price of domestic heavy-traffic asphalt in various regions: East China 4800 yuan / ton, Shandong 4425 yuan / ton, South China 4840 yuan / ton, Northwest 4450 yuan / ton, Northeast 4800 yuan / ton, North China 4320 yuan / ton, Southwest 4955 yuan / ton. 【Important information】 1, supply side: the recent domestic asphalt refinery equipment operating rate increased month-on-month. According to longzhong information data, the latest phase of the start of the data shows that the total operating rate of 78 major asphalt refineries in China is 39.7%, up 1.6% month-on-month. The equipment maintenance volume of 92 asphalt sample enterprises in China decreased significantly from the previous month, and the total maintenance volume reached 546,000 tons. From the perspective of refinery bitumen scheduling, the smelter's asphalt scheduling in September is expected to reach 2.87 million tons, an expected increase of 6.3% month-on-month and an increase of 13.3% year-on-year, of which the ground refining and discharging output is expected to be 1.961 million tons, an increase of 301,000 tons or 18.13% month-on-month, an increase of 706,800 tons or 56.35% year-on-year. 2, demand: the scope of domestic rainfall is further reduced, weather conditions are conducive to the construction of highway projects, some large-scale highway projects have entered the construction period, and the demand for asphalt roads has further improved, but due to the tight financial situation and the high cost of paving, the progress of small road projects is still slow. Due to the decline in costs, downstream traders are more cautious in stockpiling, speculative demand is suppressed, and most of them are mainly consuming inventory. 3, inventory: recently the domestic asphalt refinery inventory and social inventory have declined month-on-month. The latest inventory data shows that the inventory of 54 major bitumen refineries in China was 929,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons month-on-month, and the social inventory of 70 major bitumen in China was 720,000 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons month-on-month. 【Arbitrage strategy】 The asphalt monthly spread has narrowed, and it is recommended to short the Bu2212-Bu2306 spread in the short term. 【Trading strategy】 The decline in cost has suppressed the trend of asphalt, and the recent growth of asphalt supply and demand, low inventory level, pay attention to whether the peak season demand can be further cashed. From the perspective of the disk, under the pressure of cost, the short-term shock is expected to be weak.
High and low sulfur fuel oil	【Market review】 This week's low and high sulfur fuel oil price trend fell mainly, the high sulfur 2301 contract fell by 204 yuan / ton, down 6.90%, closing at 2751 yuan / ton; The low-sulfur 2211 contract fell 100 yuan / ton, down 2.19%, to close at 4465 yuan / ton. 【Important Information】 1. Enterprise Singapore (ESG): For the week ended September 7, Singapore's fuel oil inventories fell by 2.729 million barrels to a three-week low of 19.938 million barrels. 2. As of September 7, the operating rate of Shandong's local refining pressure reduction was 63.2%, up 1.23 percentage points from last week. (Jinlianchuang) 3.Recently, the fourth batch of low-sulfur fuel oil export quotas in 2022 was decentralized by a total of 2.75 million tons. Among them, Sinopec has 1.19 million tons, PetroChina 1.32 million tons, CNOOC 210,000 tons, Sinochem 10,000 tons, and Zhejiang Petrochemical 20,000 tons. 4. It is reported that the Biden team is considering a new release plan to prevent the surge in oil prices at the end of the year. 5. Nigeria's Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) said in a report on Thursday that the country's crude oil production fell to a record low of 972394 bpd in August this year, down more than 10% month-on-month, according to foreign media reports. 6. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: Falling gasoline prices lowered overall inflation in July, and the August report is likely to remain so. 【Arbitrage strategy】 The current low and high sulfur fuel oil cracking spread continues to run at a low level, and for the time being, we have not seen a significant strengthening of the cracking spread, and it is mainly wait-and-see. 【Trading strategy】 Recently, the uncertainty of the crude oil market has increased, the logic of supply and demand is complex, in the complexity, the main line we believe is still the game between the low valuation of supply and demand and the Fed's monetary policy and geopolitics, and recently Fed officials continue to release hawkish remarks, and crude oil prices are running weakly. In terms of fuel oil, it is expected that the number of arbitrage goods from the West will reach 2 million tons, a significant increase compared with August, the supply of high-sulfur fuel oil in the Asian market is still sufficient, making the fundamentals of high-sulfur supply and demand still loose, and the weakening of the near and far month price spreads also reflect signs of easing the supply side in recent months, and recently released data show that the fuel oil inventory in Singapore may boost high sulfur prices to a certain extent, but it is expected that the boost is limited, and the cracking spread of high sulfur fuel oil continues to be low; In terms of low-sulfur fuel oil, especially the sharp decline in gasoline and diesel prices, reducing the inflation rate in July, the rate of decline in the price of refined oil products in the future may slow down, in general, in view of the low impact of the low-sulfur fuel oil cracking price differential, it is expected that the price trend of low-sulfur and high-sulfur fuel oil will continue to follow the fluctuations of international crude oil.
PTA	Futures market: This week, the price of PTA rose mainly, and the TA2301 contract closed at 5682 yuan / ton, up 5.61%, and increased by 0.95 million lots per week. Spot market: This week, the PTA spot price shock weakened, the price fluctuated in the range of 6385-6675 yuan / ton, and by September 9, the mainstream basis of the main port was 01+870. 【Important information】 (1) Recently, the uncertainty of the crude oil market has increased, the logic of supply and demand is complex, in the complexity, the main line we believe is still the game between the low valuation of supply and demand and the Fed's monetary policy and geopolitics, and recently Fed officials continue to release hawkish remarks, and crude oil prices are running weakly. PX: It was recently reported that a 700,000-ton PX device in Vietnam was unexpectedly stopped and is initially expected to restart within this week. At present, one of the 700,000 tons of PX devices in northeast China has been produced, and the other 700,000 tons is in the process of restarting. As of September 9, the PX price closed at $1064/ton CFR China, up $21/ton on a daily basis. (2) From the supply side, as of September 8, the PTA operating rate was 71.89%, which was flat every day. Device changes: Sichuan can invest 1 million tons of devices on the 4th has been out of material, East China a set of 640,000 tons of PTA device parking, is expected to be near 20 days, Yisheng new materials 7.2 million tons of production capacity device on September 6 from 60% to 80%. (3) From the demand side, due to raw materials, gas limits and other factors, polyester chips, staple fiber devices have reduced production, in addition to other devices also have a certain load adjustment, the comprehensive polyester load has declined. As of September 9, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic polyester industry was 83.47%, flat from yesterday. 【Arbitrage strategy】 Basis strategy: With the gradual rise of weather concerns, polyester factories replenish, traders ship mainly, the basis is strong again, and the basis strategy is mainly wait-and-see under the short-term basis. 【Trading strategy】 With the gradual rise of weather concerns, polyester factories replenish the warehouse before the holiday, spot prices are upward, under the high basis, the futures market is undervalued compared with the spot price, and it is expected that the future PTA price will continue to run in the range. Risk Warning: Pay attention to the price breakout in the PTA range
Polyolefins	【Market review】 Futures market: This week, polyolefin shock strengthened, LLDPE2301 contract closed at 8211 yuan / ton, up 5.93% weekly, increased by 62,200 lots, PP2301 contract closed at 8140 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 4.84%, increased by 65,000 lots. Spot market: The spot market of polyolefins rose, and as of Friday, the mainstream price of domestic LLDPE was 8100-8450 yuan / ton. PP market, North China drawing mainstream price of 8000-8100 yuan / ton, East China drawing mainstream price of 8130-8200 yuan / ton, South China drawing mainstream price of 8200-8300 yuan / ton. 【Important information】 (1) Supply and demand: According to the maintenance plan, the recent plant maintenance has decreased, and the low level of polyolefin supply is expected to rise slightly. For the week ended September 8, PE operating rate was 79.71% (+0.04%) and PP operating rate was 82.44% (+0.39%). Pe, Qilu Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, Ningxia Baofeng Phase II parking, China Overseas Shell, Sinochem Quanzhou, Lanzhou Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, Lanzhou Petrochemical restart, Sino-Angola joint plan to restart in the near future, Dushanzi Petrochemical plan to stop maintenance in the near future; In terms of PP, Gulei Petrochemical, Ningxia Baofeng stopped and overhauled, Bolai Basel restarted after a short stop, Hohhot, Fujian United, Sino-Korean Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, Daqing Haiding, Tianjin Bohua restarted, China-Angola United, Lanzhou Petrochemical, Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Plan recently restarted, Wanhua Chemical plans to overhaul in the near future. (2) Demand side: As of the week of September 9, the operating rate of agricultural film was 43% (+3%), packaging 61% (+4%), monofilament 51% (flat), film 52% (flat), hollow 50% (+1%), pipe 38% (+2%); The operating rate of plastic knitting is 46% (+2%), the operating rate of injection molding is 49% (+2%), and the operating rate of BOPP is 60.44 51.63% (+8.81%). With the entry into the peak season of the year, downstream orders gradually followed up, and demand improved, but downstream orders were not as good as in previous years. (3) Inventory end: On September 9, the inventory level of major producers was 620,000 tons, flat from the previous trading day, and 20,000 tons were destocked on a weekly basis. As of the week of September 9, PE social inventory was 160,000 tons (-0.6 million tons), PP social inventory was 41,040 tons (-0.377 million tons). 【Arbitrage Strategy】 Short PP/LLDPE spread strategy, take profit and exit. 【Trading strategy】 Recent device maintenance has been reduced, the supply is expected to rebound at a low level, the downstream, with the gradual entry into the peak season of the year, the arrival of superimposed traditional festivals, the downstream purchase replenishment, orders have improved, but at present, the downstream new orders are not as good as in previous years. In addition, due to the recent impact of the maintenance of the Chinese and Korean devices, ethylene has risen sharply, which has a certain support for polyolefins, and it is expected that the short-term dimensional oscillations of polyolefins are strong.
ethylene glycol	Futures market: This week, ethylene glycol rebounded higher, and the EG2301 contract closed at 4465 yuan / ton, up 9.09%, reducing 25,700 lots. Spot market: ethylene glycol followed the rise, as of this Friday, the spot price in the East China market was 4335 yuan / ton. 【Important information】 (1) From the supply side, with the restart of the oil system, the supply is expected to rebound slightly at a low level. In terms of equipment, Shaanxi Yulin Chemical 1# 600,000 tons of new device gasification furnace commissioning, is expected to produce EG products in October; Yangzi Petrochemical's 300,000-ton plant switched to EO from September 8; Zhenhai Refinery's 1# 650,000-ton device was reduced to 50% operation, and the 2# 800,000-ton device was reduced to 55% operation; Gulei Petrochemical's 700,000-ton plant is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance near September 13; Tongliao Jinmei 300,000 tons of plant stopped for maintenance on August 26, the current maintenance is over, is expected to restart on September 12-15; Xinjiang Guanghui 400,000 tons of device recently restarted feeding, is expected to produce products around the weekend; Shaanxi Weihe Binzhou Chemical 300,000 tons of chemical plant on August 31 night parking maintenance, is expected to be about 30 days; Extend the shutdown of China Coal's 100,000-ton unit at the end of August, lasting about a month; Sinopec Wuhan's 280,000-ton plant was shut down for maintenance on August 25. In the week ended September 8, the operating rate of ethylene glycol was 54.58% (+4.57%). In the absence of strong demand, it is expected that the overall start of ethylene glycol will maintain low load operation. (2) From the perspective of demand, as the peak season of the year gradually enters, the demand is expected to recover, but the space needs to pay attention to the recovery of terminal demand. During the week, the polyester start did not change much, as of Friday, the polyester operating rate was 83.47%, down 0.8% week-on-week; however, the terminal weaving industry started to recover more obviously. (3) From the inventory side, according to Longzhong statistics, on September 8 (Thursday), the main port ethylene glycol inventory in East China was 888,800 tons, compared with 48,000 tons on Monday. From September 9 to September 15, the arrival volume of the main port in East China is expected to be 205,300 tons, and the expected arrival volume is basically the same as the average level of previous years. 【Arbitrage strategy】 The spot basis is -130 yuan / ton, and the arbitrage space is not large, so wait and see for the time being. 【Trading strategy】 Port inventories fell sharply again, supporting the shock of ethylene glycol to go higher, but the arrival volume of the port increased in the later period, some domestic devices have been restarted, and the supply is expected to continue to rise at a low level; On the demand side, with the gradual entry into the peak season of the year, the demand is expected to continue to repair, but the current demand performance is still a certain gap compared with previous years. If there is no sustained positive support, the upward momentum of ethylene glycol will gradually decline, and pay attention to the follow-up of terminal orders.
Staple fiber	Futures market: This week, short fiber wide oscillations. PF11 closed at 7466, up 386 yuan / ton, up 5.45%. Spot market: spot prices rose, the factory weekly production and sales of 47.44% (-2.62%), production and marketing in general, Jiangsu spot prices of 7650 (+225) yuan / ton. 【Important information】 (1) Cost side, cost shock. The market returns to trading macro, and oil prices are down; PTA starts are still relatively low, inventories continue to decline, supply and demand are better, and absolute prices are driven by costs; Ethylene glycol started to rebound and imports decreased, demand improved month-on-month, and price shocks rebounded. (2) On the supply side, the enterprise parking burden increases and the supply contracts. A jiangsu enterprise plans to start reducing production by 400 tons per day on September 13; Fujian Jingwei 200,000 tons plant is scheduled to restart on September 13; Sanfang Lane, Huahong, Huaxi Village and Xiangyang in Jiangyin area have successively stopped and reduced their burdens; Luoyang Shihua 50,000 tons of parking on August 30, restart to be determined; The new plant Huzhou Zhonglei 75,000 tons of new plant was put into operation at the end of August, and the new Fengming Jiangsu New Tuo new material 300,000 tons was put into operation on August 28. As of September 9, the short operating rate of direct spinning polyester was 73.9% (-6.7%). (3) On the demand side, the downstream start of construction has rebounded, but the downstream high inventory and terminal demand improvement are expected to be limited, which will still suppress the demand for staple fiber. As of September 9, the operating rate of polyester yarn was 63% (+3.0%), the high temperature eased the power ration, and the start of construction continued to rise. Polyester mill raw material inventory of 11.2 (+2.0) days, due to the terminal demand has not significantly improved, the yarn mill just needs to replenish the main, raw material inventory maintained at about 10 days. The inventory of pure polyester yarn finished products is 21.5 days (-4.2 days), and the production and marketing of finished products have been improved in stages, but the inventory is still higher than the same period in history. (4) On the inventory side, the factory inventory is 13.8 days (+0.2 days), the supply and demand have not materially improved, and the inventory will remain relatively high. 【Arbitrage strategy】Staple fiber maintains the back structure during the month, and the short fiber 11/01 spread is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to treat it with more ideas. 【Trading strategy】 On the supply side, the negative burden of enterprises has increased, and the supply has decreased. On the demand side, the terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the downstream demand is the mainstay. In terms of profits, the degree of loss of staple fiber continues to deepen, and the operation of enterprises to reduce negative prices may increase. On the whole, the price performance of staple fiber is firm, and it is recommended to treat it with more ideas.
styrene	Futures market: This week, styrene shock strengthened. EB10 closed at 8967, up 411 yuan / ton, up 4.80%. Spot market: Spot prices rise. Jiangsu spot sell 9750, 9350/9390 in late September, 8930/8950 in late October. 【Important information】 (1) Cost side: cost shock. The market returns to trading macro, and oil prices are down; Pure benzene port accumulation, the price is weak; Ethylene supply tightened demand rebounded, and price shocks were strong. (2) Supply side: the maintenance plan of the device increases, and the supply shrinks. Jiangsu Xinyang 300,000 tons is scheduled to restart this week; Daxie Petrochemical 360,000 tons on September 5 failure stop for 10 days; ZhenhaiLiande 600,000 tons of early negative to 70%, the current negative operation; A 150,000-ton unit in Liaoning is scheduled to be suspended in September; Lanzhou HSBC's 25,000-ton plant is scheduled to be overhauled for 2 weeks on September 1; Baling Petrochemical's 120,000-ton plant is scheduled to be overhauled for 50 days on September; Sinochem Quanzhou's 450,000-ton fleet may have a parking plan in September, which needs to be followed up; Tianjin Dagu's 500,000-ton plant is scheduled to be shut down for 50 days in mid-September; Tianjin Bohua's 450,000-ton restart is expected to start in September; shandong Yuhuang's 200,000-ton unit restart is delayed. As of September 8, the weekly operating rate was 73.16% (+0.67%). (3) Demand side: the downstream has once again entered a loss, and there is a pullback pressure on the industry to start. As of September 8, the PS operating rate was 69.21% (+3.25%), the EPS operating rate was 60.27% (+0.14%), and the ABS operating rate was 85.65% (-0.65%). (4) Inventory side: As of September 7, east China port inventory of 4.09 (-2.61) tons, affected by the typhoon port is small, inventory continues to decline, follow-up arrivals to pick up, is expected to increase inventory. 【Arbitrage strategy】Styrene part of the device restart, EB10/11 spread will be pulled back, it is recommended to short, the target range of 100-200 yuan / ton. 【Trading strategy】 Styrene profit repair, some devices have the possibility of restarting negative, but the downstream has once again entered the loss, demand suppressed prices, and it is expected that styrene prices will have correction pressure in the middle of the year.
liquefied petroleum gas	【Market review】 This week' PG10 contract narrow shock, as of the close, the PG10 contract closed at 5484 yuan / ton, the futures price fell 34 yuan / ton, down 0.62%. 【Important Information】 Crude Oil: Data released by the US EIA shows that for the week ended September 2, US commercial crude oil inventories were 442.471 million barrels, an increase of 8.845 million barrels from the previous week, gasoline inventories were 214.808 million barrels, an increase of 333,000 barrels from last week, refined oil inventories were 111.801 million barrels, an increase of 95,000 barrels from the previous week, and Cushing crude oil inventories were 24.783 million barrels, down 501,000 barrels from last week. Spot side: This week in October Saudi CP expected, propane 649 US dollars / ton, down 4 US dollars / ton from last week, butane 619 US dollars / ton, down 14 US dollars / ton from last week, propane in November 660 US dollars / ton, down 8 US dollars / ton from last week, butane 630 US dollars / ton, down 18 US dollars / ton from last week. This week, the ex-factory price of civil gas of Guangzhou Petrochemical fell by 50 yuan / ton to 5528 yuan / ton, the ex-factory price of civil gas of Shanghai Petrochemical rose by 50 yuan / ton to 5650 yuan / ton, and the ex-factory price of Qilu petrochemical industrial gas was stable at 7050 yuan / ton. Supply side: This week, a local refining overhaul in Shandong ended, a refinery in central China overhauled, and a refinery in south China and east China was reduced, and on the whole, domestic supply fell this week. Longzhong Information surveyed 258 liquefied gas production enterprises across the country, and the total amount of liquefied gas commodities was about 503,700 tons, down 3.01% week-on-week. Demand side: the current industrial demand is relatively stable, Zhuo Chuang information statistics data show that the WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 8 MTBE plant operating rate of 57.47%, an increase of 0.16% over last week, alkylated oil plant operating rate of 53.6%, down 0.27% from the previous period. Donghua Ningbo Phase I, Jinfa, QiXiang, Far East and Zhejiang Petrochemical PDH plants are still in a state of shutdown, but Donghua Ningbo Phase II plants have restarted and returned to full load, and the utilization rate of such capacity has increased significantly. The operating rate of PDH units this week was 66.15%, an increase of 3.04 percentage points from last week. As the temperature gradually falls, the demand for civil gas gradually rises. Inventory: Inventory: As of September 8, 2022, the sample inventory of China's liquefied gas ports was 1.8677 million tons, an increase of 78,900 tons over the previous period, an increase of 4.41% month-on-month. According to the data of Zhuo Chuang statistics on September 8, in mid-September, 7 ships of frozen cargo in South China arrived at the port, totaling 176,000 tons, and 7 ships of frozen cargo in East China arrived at the port, totaling 270,000 tons, with a moderate arrival volume. Port inventories are expected to decline slightly in the next period. Warehouse receipts: This week, Fujian Zhongmin added 100 registered warehouse receipts, and the total number of warehouse receipts increased to 6471. 【Arbitrage strategy】 At present, there is no obvious arbitrage opportunity, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. 【Trading strategy】 From the perspective of the intraday trend, there is still strong support near the 20-day moving average. Jinjiu is expected to have higher enthusiasm for downstream replenishment, and the futures price has a phased upward momentum. From a fundamental point of view, as the temperature turns cooler, civil gas demand will rebound, industrial demand as a whole will remain stable, due to the continuous loss of PDH devices, low operating rate, overall industrial demand is stable and weak, the futures price lacks a sustainable upward drive, the operation should not be chased more, to pull back the light warehouse to intervene in more orders, pay close attention to crude oil fluctuations in the later stage.
methanol	【Market review】 Methanol futures stabilized after stepping back on the 2530 first-line support, the center of gravity was attached to the five-day moving average shock higher, successfully broke through the previous high pressure level, and continued to climb after a brief consolidation near the 2680 line, breaking through the 2700 mark, the highest touched 2748, with a weekly increase of 6.00%. 【Important information】 Boosted by the rise in futures, the domestic methanol spot market atmosphere picked up, prices rose, the coastal market performance was slightly stronger, and the center of gravity was steadily pushed up. However, compared with futures, the methanol spot market is still in a state of narrow discount. The upstream coal market price is stable and strong, and the cost of methanol has followed higher, providing certain support. The quotation of enterprises in the main production areas in the northwest was tentatively raised, the northern line of Inner Mongolia negotiated at 2360-2400 yuan / ton, the southern line negotiated at 2250-2270 yuan / ton, the manufacturer signed a smooth order, and the shipment situation was stable. There is a certain stocking behavior in the pre-holiday market, the actual trading of methanol spot has improved, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers has been alleviated. Although the start of construction in the northwest region declined, affected by the increase in the operating load of the plant in the southwest and central China, the start of the methanol industry rose slightly to 66.39%, down 1.35 percentage points from the same period last year, and the operating load in the northwest region was 78.02%, 6.77 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In the later stage, the maintenance plan of the enterprise was significantly reduced, methanol started or rebounded at a low level, and the supply pressure of supply was not large for the time being. The increase in active inquiries in the downstream market has recently been affected by the tight capacity in some areas, the freight rate has been raised, the cost of methanol arrival has increased, the holder has a low-price reluctance to sell, and the negotiated price has risen slightly. The downstream market just needs to be stable in procurement, and after the end of the high temperature off-season, there is an expectation of improvement on the demand side, whether it is emerging demand or traditional demand. Recently, the arrival of imported goods has decreased, and the inventory in coastal areas has fallen narrowly, shrinking to 935,200 tons, and the inventory digestion speed is slow. 【Arbitrage strategy】 The profit of the methanol industry chain is at a low level, and the profit of the long industrial chain continues to be held. 【Trading strategy】 Methanol market supply side, demand side are expected to pick up, with the easing of inventory pressure, the fundamentals or some improvement, methanol futures price standing at the 2680 line will continue to climb, low more than one cautious hold.
PVC	【Market review】 PVC futures trend is slightly deadlocked, the center of gravity narrow down after the stabilization near the 6300 mark, gradually stand on the five-day moving average support, long and short capital game, the disk trend glue, brief sideways after the center of gravity pulled up, intended to test the shock range along the pressure level, the weekly increase of 5.57%, the weekly line yin and yang staggered. 【Important information】 Futures rebounded slightly, boosting the confidence of market participants, the domestic PVC spot market atmosphere picked up slightly, mainstream prices in various regions rose, and the source of low-priced goods decreased. The PVC spot market maintains a deep premium state, although the futures are rising, but the basis is still at a high level, and there are still certain advantages in the source of point prices. The weak situation of the upstream raw material calcium carbide market has not changed, the price has been partially reduced, the factory price has been reduced by about 100 yuan / ton, although the calcium carbide start is still low, the shipment pressure is not large, but there is still a phenomenon of price reduction, to ensure that the shipment is the mainstay. Calcium carbide itself is facing loss pressure, considering the downstream demand situation, the price adjustment is more cautious, and it is difficult to provide strong support on the cost side. The situation of enterprises receiving orders in the main production areas in the northwest is still general, most of them maintain a balance between production and marketing, some enterprises have certain inventory pressure, and the factory quotation is flexibly adjusted according to their own situation. There are not many new maintenance enterprises, only one, most of which are pre-extended maintenance enterprises, and the level of PVC industry operation has increased slightly to 72.41%. In the later stage, three new maintenance enterprises are expected, but the early parking devices have been restored, and it is expected that the output of maintenance losses will decline. At present, PVC starts are still low, and the supply pressure is not large. However, demand has not improved, and the downward transmission of high-priced goods has been blocked. After the price increase, the enthusiasm of the downstream market to take goods has weakened, and the transaction of high-priced goods is not smooth. Downstream products factory operations fell narrowly from the end of August, and orders remained average. The high temperature off-season is coming to an end, PVC products are closely related to real estate, and the number of real estate correlations is still not good, and the confidence of the industry is not strong. In addition, PVC export orders shrank, and foreign trade boosted weakly. Social inventories in East and South China are difficult to digest and remain volatile around 350,000 tons. 【Arbitrage strategy】 PVC spot market depth rise, short basis can be cautiously held. 【Trading strategy】 Demand follow-up is slow, coupled with the lack of recent market news stimulation, PVC futures prices continue to range shock trend, pay attention to the upper 6600 pressure level, low more than a single can be reduced in moderation.
soda ash	【Market review】 This week' soda ash futures disk shock run, the main 01 contract rose 0.13%, closing at 2306 yuan. 【Important information】 Spot, this week's domestic soda ash market narrow consolidation. This week, the mainstream factory price of domestic light alkali new single is 2550-2700 yuan / ton, the manufacturer light alkali mainstream delivery terminal price is 2700-2800 yuan / ton, as of September 8, the average price of domestic light alkali factory is 2628 yuan / ton, slightly lower than the average price on September 1, 0.08%; this week, the domestic heavy alkali delivery terminal price is 2700-2900 yuan / ton. The operating rate of soda ash plants has rebounded significantly with the drop in temperature. This week, the operating load of the soda ash industry was 76.7%, an increase of 7.1 percentage points week-on-week. Among them, the average operation of ammonia alkali manufacturers is 82.3%, the average operation of joint alkali manufacturers is 72.5%, and the average operation of natural alkali plants is 100%. Zhuo Chuang information statistics this week's soda ash manufacturers production of about 517,000 tons. Inventories of soda ash production enterprises have accumulated. This week, the total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises was 430,000-440,000 tons (including some manufacturers' port and foreign warehouse inventory), an increase of 3.8% over September 1 and an increase of 27.1% year-on-year. Among them, the heavy alkali inventory is about 250,000 tons. This week, the operating load of soda ash manufacturers has increased significantly, the number of alkali manufacturers in the central and eastern regions is sufficient, the inventory is not high, the automobile transportation in Qinghai is not smooth, and the inventory has increased. 【Arbitrage strategy】 Soda ash new production capacity is expected to be bearish 05 contract price, short-term soda ash fundamental pressure is limited, it is recommended to participate in 1-5 positive set. 【Trading Strategy】 The increase in soda ash supply during the year was limited; With the weak recovery of the domestic economy, the demand for light alkali is expected to be significantly reduced in the production capacity of float glass, and the demand for soda ash of photovoltaic glass remains upward; The probability of a phased tight balance in the soda ash market in the third and fourth quarters should not be underestimated. Soda ash stage by the float glass cold repair expectations driven by the weak operation, for float glass enterprises and photovoltaic glass companies with replenishment needs, can wait for the disk to buy hedging opportunities. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the macro environment and the implementation of float glass cold repair and photovoltaic glass production plans.
urea	【Market review】 This week, the main urea futures opened high and went high, the highest probe to 2430 yuan / ton, the main 01 contract rose 3.51% weekly to close at 2419 yuan / ton. 【Important information】 This week, the domestic urea spot market rose sharply, as of this Friday, the mainstream of small and medium-sized particles in Shandong was 2460-2490 yuan / ton, and the average price rose by 130 yuan / ton compared with last week. On the supply side, the supply side, the early parking enterprises recovered, but the temporary parking disturbance of individual factories, the second phase of Linggu is expected to produce products next week, and the average daily output has room to increase. In terms of agricultural demand, autumn fertilizer gradually began, some compound fertilizer plants began to recover one after another, the purchase volume will increase, the industrial demand is weak, more just need to be purchased, and the demand for wood-based panels is weak. India tendered 1 million tonnes and received 2.26 million tonnes on Friday. There are domestic export orders from India, and the price is 580 US dollars / ton. In the past two days, the new order transactions of enterprises in mainstream areas in China have slowed down, and the market has been deadlocked. 【Arbitrage strategy】Urea companies concentrate on resuming production, and are waiting and seeing after leaving the market, and it is recommended that investors pay attention to relevant arbitrage opportunities. 【Trading strategy】 The overall agricultural fertilizer seasonality began to warm up, buying up and not buying down affecting the transaction; Inventories of urea production enterprises fell slightly, and port inventories fell slightly from the previous month; Urea supply and demand are concentrated in China, there is no major change in the situation of supply and price stability, and the price difference between the inside and outside disks has continued to expand recently. The export policy is not clear, and the new round of Indian tenders will be implemented, and the impact will run through September, driven by the internal and external price differences. In the active destocking stage, production enterprises recommend that they maintain their value based on their own inventory situation, and wait for the opportunity to sell insurance based on the basis to avoid policy risks. Technically, the short-term pattern broke through the 2150-2350 oscillation range, and the trend was strong. In terms of news, the news of printing bids and bidding by the National Reserve has a certain advantage, and short-term fault enterprises have increased some hedging and concentrated resumption of production. Operationally, short-term orders are cautiously held, above the attention of 2460-2480 resistance, the current price increase after the replenishment of the warehouse has slowed down, focusing on the sustainability of downstream orders and the direction of Indian bidding, especially the continuity of orders after price increases.
coking coal	【Market review】 This week, the coking coal 01 contract was in a narrow range, as of the close, the futures price closed at 1903 yuan / ton, and the futures price rose by 53 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.86%. 【Important information】 This week, Mysteel counted a sample of 110 coal washing plants across the country: the operating rate of 75.02% decreased by 1.17% from the previous period; the average daily output of 622,600 tons fell by 14,500 tons; raw coal stocks increased by 28,100 tons from 2.212 million tons; refined coal stocks increased by 0.16 million tons from 1.634 million tons. There is still no obvious trend change in the supply of coal mines in the producing areas. Fenwei Energy statistics of 53 sample coal mines raw coal production of 6.116 million tons, an increase of 7.08 yuan / ton over the previous period. Imports: According to sources, the completion ceremony of the 267-kilometer railway from the Taben Tolgoi Coal Mine to the Kashun Suhaitu Port will be held during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. It is expected that the daily traffic limit will be 10 trains, bringing about 30,000 tons of Mongolian coking coal, but it is worth noting that this part of the increase cannot be directly reflected in the import customs clearance until the cross-border railway between the Gashun Suhaitu/Ganqi Maodu port is repaired. This week, about 600 vehicles were cleared at the Ganqimaodu Port, about 245 vehicles were cleared at the Mandurah Port, and about 265 vehicles were cleared at the Ceke Port. The three major customs clearance ports have cleared more than 1,100 vehicles, with an average daily customs clearance volume of more than 135,000 tons. Demand-side: The profits of coking enterprises are acceptable, and the operating rate continues to rise. According to the latest data from Mysteel statistics, as of the week ended September 9, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 78.55%, an increase of 2.09% over the previous period. The average daily output of the whole sample was 1.163 million tons, an increase of 12,400 tons over the previous period. Inventory: The overall coking coal inventory was 22.956 million tons, an increase of 22,000 tons over the previous period, an increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 17.27%. 【Arbitrage strategy】 At present, the immediate profit of steel mills is low, steel mills have begun to suppress coke prices, and the profits of coking disks have declined, and strategically, we can try to short the disk profits of coking enterprises at high. 【Trading Strategy】 Previously, the market rebounded slightly under the support of the bullish news of the "guarantee of the delivery of the building" and the LPR downward adjustment, but Powell spoke super hawkishly, the market's expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates sharply heated up, and the commodity market was under pressure. At present, the domestic epidemic outbreak is sporadic, the market is expected to weaken significantly for the peak season of "Golden Nine Silver Ten", the recovery of the demand side is still worried, and the futures price trend is still weak. From the perspective of the disk trend, the current 01 contract still maintains the trend of 1700-2100 yuan / ton low range oscillation, and the operation is mainly based on the rolling operation of the band.
coke	【Market review】 This week, the coke 01 contract low shock, as of the close, the futures price closed at 2548.5 yuan / ton, the futures price rose by 100 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.08%. 【Important information】 After the first round of coke was reduced by 100 yuan / ton, the profits of coking enterprises declined significantly. Mysteel statistics show that as of September 8, the week ended September 8, 30 independent coking de-enterprise profit of 8 yuan / ton, down 63 yuan / ton from last week. The profits of coking enterprises are acceptable, and the operating rate continues to rise. According to the latest data from Mysteel statistics, as of the week ended September 9, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 78.55%, an increase of 2.09% over the previous period. The average daily output of the whole sample was 1.163 million tons, an increase of 12,400 tons over the previous period. Demand side: The previous part of the overhauled blast furnace resumed production, and the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron production continued to rise. As of September 9, Mysteel surveyed 247 steel mills blast furnace operating rate of 81.99%, an increase of 1.13% from the previous week, an increase of 1.05% over last year; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 87.56%, an increase of 0.73% month-on-month, an increase of 2.96% year-on-year; steel mill profitability of 52.38%, an increase of 1.73% month-on-month, down 36.36%; the average daily output of molten iron was 2.3555 million tons, an increase of 19,500 tons, an increase of 82,200 tons. According to the weekly high-frequency data, the growth rate of molten iron production has slowed down significantly, and the amplitude of further increase in the short term is limited, and whether molten iron production can continue to rise in the later period still needs to pay attention to the changes in profits. Inventory: In the week of September 9, the overall inventory of coke was 10.1235 million tons, an increase of 130,100 tons from the previous week, an increase of 1.3% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 7.71%, and the current overall inventory is still at a low level in the same period. 【Arbitrage strategy】 At present, the immediate profit of steel mills is low, steel mills have begun to suppress coke prices, and the profits of coking disks have declined, and strategically, we can try to short the disk profits of coking enterprises at high. 【Trading strategy】 At present, the spot profit of steel mills is low, steel mills have begun to suppress the price of coke, and after the first round of coke has landed, the spot price is weak, dragging down the futures price. The domestic epidemic outbreak sporadically, the market for the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" peak season expectations weakened significantly, the recovery of the demand side is still worried, the futures price trend is still weak. From the perspective of the disk trend, the current 01 contract still maintains the trend of 2350-2850 yuan / ton low range oscillation, and the operation of the swing rolling operation is the mainstay.
Soybean meal	【Market Review】 This week, the main 11 contract of the US beans opened at 1415 cents / Pu, and then continued to penetrate the key level of 1400 and oscillated around this position, temporarily closing at 1398.75 cents / Pu on Friday afternoon, down about 1.5%. In contrast, the main 2301 contract of soybean meal of large commercial firms strengthened, opening at 3825 yuan / ton, rushing up to near 3923 and then falling under pressure at 3900, closing at 3852 yuan / ton on Friday afternoon. In terms of spot, domestic soybean meal quotations continued to rise, Nantong 4620 yuan / ton rose 220, Tianjin 4750 yuan / ton rose 290, Rizhao 4670 yuan / ton rose 230, Fangcheng 4660 yuan / ton rose 260, Zhanjiang 4650 yuan / ton rose 250. 【Important News】 Next Monday, the USDA will release a monthly supply and demand report. Private analyst firm IHS Markit Agribusiness expects an average U.S. soybean yield of 51.3 bush/acre in 2022, down from the 51.8 bush/acre forecast on Aug. 5. StoneX expects U.S. soybean yields to be 51.8 bushes per acre this month. In its August 12 monthly report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicted an average U.S. soybean yield of 51.9 bushes per acre; ProFarmer expects soybean yields at 51.7 pups per acre. 【Neutral】 As of September 6, the excellent rate of U.S. beans was 57%, which was stable for three consecutive weeks; Argentina's economy minister, Sergio Massa, announced new incentives for soybean growers starting Monday to encourage farmers to sell more soybeans through better exchange rates to boost export earnings. The new incentives will last until September 30; Brazil's soybean production in 2022/23 is expected to reach a record 154 million tonnes, up 22% from the previous year's production of 125.5 million tonnes, according to consultancy Celeres. Celeres expects Brazilian soybean crushing to be 49.7 million tonnes in 2023, 2.6 percent higher than the 48.7 million tonnes expected in 2022. Brazil's soybean crushing in 2021 is 47.5 million tons; 【Bearish】 From September to October, soybean arrivals are small, averaging about 5.5 million tons per month, and oil mills are expected to be mainly priced before November. 【Bullish】 【Trading Strategy】 In September, the USDA basically fixed the production of U.S. beans, and the market focus will also shift to South America. September USDA will be released on the 12th, the reporting data is expected to be more, but the impact on the disk is bearish. U.S. soybean yields are expected to be lowered above 51.5, even below the previous value of 51.9, but still showing a good yield. Several institutions expect Brazil's soybean production to increase by about 20 percent. The price mentality of domestic oil mills is still strong, and the trend of spot and basis is firm. Due to the tight arrival of soybeans in June and October, and the poor profit of oil mills, the price mentality is strong. After the release of the USDA report in September, the U.S. bean weather speculation will also enter the end, and the market focus will shift to the sowing of South American beans, which is expected to form a sustained bearish for U.S. beans. Short-term domestic soybean meal spot and meal trend is expected to remain strong, one is that the depreciation of the renminbi has increased the cost of imports, and the other is that the arrival of soybeans in the past two months is small, and the price mentality of oil mills is stronger. Short-term meal is still expected to be stronger than the U.S. beans, do not rule out the possibility of M2301 rushing higher than 4000, but it is expected to stand before the high is unlikely, it is not recommended to chase high, wait for the high after the high selling mainly, short-term advice to pay attention to the 3900-4000 pressure position.
grease	【Market review】 This week, the futures price of vegetable oils and fats closed sharply, with the main P2301 contract closing at 7684 points, down 206 points or 3.3%; the Y2301 contract closed at 9136 points, closing down 190 points or 2.04%. Spot oil market: Guangdong Guangzhou palm oil prices weakened significantly, the local market mainstream palm oil quotation 8240 yuan / ton - 8340 yuan / ton, down 380 yuan / ton; Traders: 24 degree palm oil pre-sale basis quotations are concentrated around 01+500-700. The price of soybean oil in Guangdong rose slightly, and the mainstream soybean oil in the local market quoted 10280 yuan / ton - 10380 yuan / ton, up 140 yuan / ton from the previous month; Dongguan: The basis of the first-class soybean oil pre-sale is concentrated in about 01 + 950-1000 yuan. According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the Malaysian plantation industry is experiencing the worst labour shortage ever since palm oil was commercialized in 1917. The MPOA's latest forecast for Malaysia's crude palm oil production in 2022 is 18 million tonnes, down from 18.1 million tonnes in 2021 and also below 19.1 million tonnes in 2020, which will be the third consecutive year of declining palm oil production. Monthly forecasts released by the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show that La Niña has a high chance of continuing into the rest of the year. CPC currently expects La Niña to extend from September to December with a 91% chance. However, THE CPC lowered the likelihood that La Niña would last until FY 2023, arguing that the chance of continuing to appear in La Niña from January to March 2023 was 54%, down from the 60% previous forecast. 【Arbitrage strategy】 The bean palm spread is treated with a 1000-1800 oscillation idea. 【Trading strategy】 Horse palm is in the production increase cycle, the market expects that the MMOB in September reported that the horse palm inventory accumulated to 2 million tons, and the horse palm continued the seasonal accumulation process. Argentina allowed soybean growers to sell at 1-dollar to 200 pesos by the end of September, much higher than the official exchange rate of 139 pesos, farmers sold soybeans with a significant increase, and Argentine soybean oil and soybean meal exports will increase in the short term. This week's crop growth report shows that the U.S. soybean fine rate is 57%, flat month-on-month, higher than the market expectation of 54%, and the weather speculation window window window has gradually narrowed. Pressure on the supply of origin, the recent shock of oil futures prices is weak, September 12 will be released September USDA and MPOB report, considering that there is still a shortage of labor in Malay plantations, domestic oil and fat supply is still tight and reporting uncertainty still exists, there are already short orders can partially take profits. In the medium to long term, after the release of the USDA report in September, the weather speculation window will close and seasonal supply pressure will gradually approach. South America's 22/23 production expectations are strong. In addition, the Fed continues to raise interest rates, and the gradual turn of the recession from expectations to reality will make commodity prices systematically weaker. Medium- and long-term oil futures prices may still have some downward pressure.
peanut	Futures market: The peanut 01 contract closed sharply higher this week, closing up 418 points or 4.19% to 10384 yuan / ton. Spot market: The price of new peanuts in baisha in the production area is oscillating and running, and the amplitude is narrow. The price of miscellaneous peanuts is running high, and the old rice is also continued to be consumed. The recent price shock of new peanuts in Baisha, the production area, after a slight weakening of prices last week, has been strong again since the weekend due to limited goods, but the downstream procurement volume has swept the tail, and the price has shown signs of weakness since Tuesday. The overall volume of miscellaneous peanuts is not large, and the price is running high. Individual oil mills began to buy raw materials for the new season, and the price was basically on the market. In terms of imported rice, the amount of recent futures is not much, and it continues to be strongly adjusted. Shandong Linyi oil peanut theory weekly average price of 8550 yuan / ton; The average weekly price of henan oilseed peanuts is 8738 yuan / ton, and the average price of individual oil mills entering the market is raised; The average price of new currency rice in Baisha in Zhumadian district of Henan Province was 10,550 yuan / ton, down 0.85% month-on-month; the average price of imported rice Sudanese polished rice this week was 9100 yuan / ton, which was 0.89% stronger than the previous month. 【Important information】 According to the monitoring data of Zhuo Chuang Information, some large-scale wholesale markets in China arrived at 5140 tons this week, up 26.29% from the previous week, and shipped 5110 tons, up 11.82% from the previous week. This week, the arrival of some wholesale markets increased, driving the trading volume to rise. According to Mysteel's survey, as of September 9, the peanut inventory statistics of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises and manufacturers were 33,955 tons, a decrease of 200 tons compared with last week. Longda entered the market yesterday, the oil mill arrived about 500 tons, 46% oil, 11-12% moisture, 6.5 sieve on the ≥ 80%, the transaction price in 9960-9980 yuan / ton. 【Arbitrage strategy】 The peanut 10-1 spread is treated with a range of -700 to -350 oscillation ideas. 【Trading Strategy】 At present, the surplus of cold storage in Northeast, Hebei and Shandong is not much, henan and Liangguang have a small amount of inventory left, with the old season peanut supply gradually sweeping the tail cold storage source price shock operation, the cold storage source for the new season peanut price implications will gradually weaken. Recently, the weather in the production area has improved, the number of listings may increase, and the price of new peanuts will fluctuate. In the later stage, we will focus on the rhythm of new peanut listing and the actual yield, on the whole, the peanut production reduction expectations this year are strong, the planting cost is rising, the price of peanuts last year is low and high, and the low price of farmers will have obvious reluctance to sell. The seasonal decline brought about by harvest pressure may be relatively limited, and the impact of production cuts is expected to gradually cash in in the medium and long term, and the center of gravity of price operation may shift up. In terms of operation, the idea of low-dip is more, and options can be considered to buy inflated call options.
Cuisine	Futures market: This week, the main 01 contract of rapeseed meal rose, closing at 2957 yuan / ton on Friday afternoon, up 30 yuan / ton, up 1.02%; the vegetable oil 01 contract continued to fall, closing at 10361 yuan / ton on Friday afternoon, down 146 yuan / ton, down 1.39%. In terms of spot prices, the spot price of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills rose, Nantong 3680 yuan / ton rose by 160, Hefei 3580 yuan / ton rose by 80, Huangpu 3780 yuan / ton rose by 290. The spot price of vegetable oil rose and fell, Nantong 12400 yuan / ton rose by 50, Chengdu 12680 yuan / ton fell by 50. 【Important information】 As of September 6, the excellent rate of U.S. beans was 57%, which was stable for three consecutive weeks; The monthly oilseed processing report released by the USDA shows that the strong domestic demand for soybean meal drove up the US soybean crush in July. The U.S. crushed 5.44 million tonnes of soybeans in July, equivalent to 181,335 million catapults, an increase of 4.2 percent from 174,080,000 cathopiles in June and a 9.0 percent increase from 166,330 million in July 2021, the USDA said. This is supported by rising soybean meal profits in parts of the Midwest and firm prices; Argentina's economy minister, Sergio Massa, announced new incentives for soybean growers starting Monday to encourage farmers to sell more soybeans through better exchange rates to boost export earnings. The new incentives will last until September 30; Brazil's soybean production in 2022/23 is expected to reach a record 154 million tonnes, up 22% from the previous year's production of 125.5 million tonnes, according to consultancy Celeres. Celeres expects Brazilian soybean crushing to be 49.7 million tonnes in 2023, 2.6 percent higher than the 48.7 million tonnes expected in 2022. Brazil's soybean crushing in 2021 is 47.5 million tons; 【Bearish】 From September to October, soybean arrivals are small, averaging about 5.5 million tons per month, and oil mills are expected to be mainly priced before November. 【Bullish】 【Trading Strategy】 September USDA will be released on the 12th, it is expected that the reporting data is more, but the impact on the disk is bearish. U.S. soybean yields are expected to be cut below 51.5, even below the previous value of 51.9, but still higher than the market's previous estimate of 51 or less. The focus of the outer market has gradually shifted to South America, and many institutions expect that Brazilian soybean production may increase by about 20%. The price mentality of domestic oil mills is still strong, and the trend of spot and basis is firm. Due to the tight arrival of soybeans in June and October, and the poor profit of oil mills, the price mentality is strong. After the release of the USDA report in September, the U.S. bean weather speculation will also enter the end, and the market focus will shift to the sowing of South American beans, which is expected to form a sustained bearish for U.S. beans. Short-term domestic soybean meal spot and meal trend is expected to remain strong, one is that the depreciation of the renminbi has increased the cost of imports, and the other is that the arrival of soybeans in the past two months is small, and the price mentality of oil mills is stronger. Short-term meal is still expected to be stronger than the U.S. beans, do not rule out the possibility of M2301 rushing higher than 4000, but it is expected to stand before the high is unlikely, it is not recommended to chase high, wait for the high after the high selling mainly, short-term advice to pay attention to the 3900-4000 pressure position. At present, the supply of rapeseed meal is relatively sufficient, and the arrival of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the fourth quarter has increased, and it is expected that it will still be weaker than soybean meal in the later period. The bearish view of vegetable oil remains unchanged, considering part of the take profit, and the rest of the short orders continue to hold. Indonesia's domestic palm expansion reservoir, the urgent need to export, and horse palm labor in the short term repeated but good to solve the expectations, the Black Sea trade gradually resumed after the Russian black sunflower oil and rapeseed oil export demand is strong. For the time being, do not look at the oil and fat flip up, short-term or repeated, light position test short or short order continue to hold.
corn	【Market review】 Futures market: the main 01 contract showed a strong trend this week, closing at 2817 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 0.93%; spot market: this week's national corn spot price is stable and strong. As of Friday, the northern port second-class purchase of 2700-2720 yuan / ton, container first-class corn acquisition of 2800 yuan / ton, Guangdong Shekou new grain bulk ship 2900-2920 yuan / ton, container first-class corn quotation of 3000-3050 yuan / ton, up 30-50 yuan / ton from the previous Friday; Heilongjiang deep processing mainstream acquisition of 2550-2650 yuan / ton, Jilin deep processing mainstream acquisition of 2620-2740 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia mainstream acquisition of 2620-2730 yuan / ton, Liaoning mainstream acquisition of 2650-2720 yuan / ton, basically flat compared with the previous Friday; The purchase price of Shandong is 2740-2920 yuan / ton, Henan 2700-2800 yuan / ton, Hebei 2750-2800 yuan / ton, basically flat from the previous Friday. (China Huiyi Network) [Important Information] (1) Corn deep processing enterprise inventory: As of September 7, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 2.583 million tons, down 8.44% from last week. (2) Consumption of deep-processed corn: In the 36 weeks of 2022 (September 1 to September 7), 126 major corn deep processing enterprises (including 69 starch, 35 alcohol and 22 amino acid enterprises) in the country consumed a total of 905,000 tons of corn, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week; a decrease of 26,000 tons from last year, a decrease of 2.78%. (3) USDA's weekly crop report shows that for the week ended September 4, 2022, the U.S. corn growth rate was 54%, compared with market expectations of 53%, compared with 54% in the previous week and 59% in the same period last year. U.S. corn wax yields were 92 percent, compared to 86 percent in the previous week, compared with 94 percent in the same period last year and a five-year average of 93 percent. U.S. corn losses were 63 percent, compared to 46 percent in the previous week, compared with 72 percent in the year-ago quarter and a five-year average of 67 percent. U.S. corn maturity was 15 percent, compared to 8 percent in the previous week, 19 percent in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 18 percent. (4) Market comments: From the perspective of the outer disk market, the price of crude oil has fallen back to pressure the disk, but the overall market support has not yet been broken. The decline in U.S. corn and EU yield expectations continues to form the support of the market, in addition, the export advantage of U.S. corn in the fourth quarter has strengthened, and the judgment of strong volatility is still maintained for the outside market. From a domestic point of view, the divergence on the demand side is still the focus of attention, and the weather disturbance in the production area has brought some support to the market, but the sustained bullish support is slightly insufficient, and there is still some pressure above the short-term futures price. In the medium term, based on the recovery of the outer market and the relatively stable expectation of domestic demand, we maintain a strong expectation of domestic corn futures prices. 【Arbitrage strategy】 Starch-corn spread short orders continue to hold; The 1-5 spread on corn is recommended for the time being. 【Trading Strategy】 Corn 01 contract short-term shock, operation is recommended to pay attention to the bargain to do long opportunities.
starch	【Market review】 Futures market: the main 11 contract showed strong fluctuations this week, closing at 3062 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 0.76%; spot market: this week's domestic corn starch spot prices are mainly stable. According to data from China Huiyi Network, as of Friday, the spot quotation of corn starch in Qinggang, Heilongjiang was 3020 yuan / ton, which was flat from the previous Friday; Jilin Changchun corn starch spot quotation was 3100 yuan / ton, flat from the previous Friday; Hebei Ningjin corn starch quotation was 3120 yuan / ton, flat from the previous Friday; Shandong Zhucheng corn starch quotation was 3150 yuan / ton, flat from the previous Friday. 【Important information】 (1) Enterprise operating rate: This week (September 1 to September 7), the total national corn processing volume was 481,800 tons, a decrease of 18,500 tons from last week's corn consumption; the weekly national corn starch production was 229,100 tons, a decrease of 13,200 tons from last week's output. The operating rate was 44.85%, down 2.58% from last week. (2) Enterprise inventory: According to the information of my agricultural product network, as of September 7, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises was 897,000 tons, down 53,000 tons from last week, a decrease of 5.58%, a monthly decline of 20.58%; an annual increase of 10.91%. (3) Market comments: Starch futures prices are still around the cost and demand of the game, starch demand pressure is still relatively large, continue to form a suppressive effect on the market, but the cost side is facing the expectation of support, starch futures prices will be compressed. 【Arbitrage strategy】 Starch-corn spread short orders continue to hold. 【Trading strategy】 Starch 11 contract or enter the support range, the operation of the short-term recommended to pay attention to the bargain to do more opportunities.
rubber	【Market review】 Futures market: This week, Shanghai rubber is hovering at a low level, and the NR trend is weaker. The RU2301 contract fluctuated between $12,190-12,440, closing up 0.81% weekly. The NR2211 contract fluctuated between $9185-$9565, closing down 0.69% weekly. 【Important information】 This week, the operating rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 64.64%, -1.22% month-on-month, and +16.94% year-on-year. This week, the operating rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 56.77%, -2.12% month-on-month, and +7.86% year-on-year. During the week, the operating rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises was lowered, the enterprise shipment was general, the snow tire shipment resistance still existed, and the inventory of individual enterprises was under pressure. During the week, the operating rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises declined, and at the beginning of the month, individual companies launched certain promotional policies, but the overall sales were limited. 【Arbitrage strategy】 Shanghai rubber main contract premium spot more, you can buy imported mixed rubber and sell RU2301 for non-standard arbitrage. The Hujiao RU2305-RU2301 spread is at a low level, and you can try to sell near and buy far intertemporal arbitrage. Ru-NR spread (adjacent contract) reaches more than 3000 yuan, you can consider buying NR and selling RU operations. 【Trading strategy】 This week, shanghai rubber performance is weak, NR hit a new low in the year, RU low finishing. This week, the operating rate of tire companies fell month-on-month, the consumption of social inventory in Tianjiao slowed down, and the downstream consumption situation has not improved significantly after entering September. Although car sales increased year-on-year in August, the boost to rubber prices was not obvious. Overall, the domestic natural rubber spot inventory is relatively low, while the downstream demand continues to shrink the space is small, once the supply encounters resistance or demand rebound significantly, rubber prices may rebound rapidly. It is expected that the pressure of the main Contract of Shanghai Rubber (RU) in September will be around 13300 yuan, and there may be support around 11500 yuan. The NR main contract may form an important resistance at 10300 yuan, and there may be support near 9000 yuan. Tianjiao downstream enterprises can purchase on demand at a favorable price.
sugar	【Market review】 Futures market: This week Zheng sugar low finishing. The SR301 fluctuated between $5471-5541, closing slightly up 0.64% weekly. 【Important Information】 On September 8, 2022, ICE raw sugar closed at 17.9 cents/lb, and the RMB exchange rate was 6.9563. It is estimated that the estimated cost of sugar imports in brazil's quota is 4857 yuan / ton; The estimated cost of importing additional sugar from Brazil is 6183 yuan / ton; The estimated cost of sugar imports within the Thai quota is 5145 yuan / ton; The estimated cost of importing additional sugar from Thailand is 6559 yuan / ton. 【Arbitrage strategy】 Zheng Sugar's near-month contract discount spot, downstream enterprises can consider establishing virtual inventory on SR209. The spread of Zheng Sugar SR2301 and SR2305 has no obvious trend, and it is currently at the middle level of history, and there is no arbitrage opportunity. 【Trading Strategy】 Recently, Zheng Sugar's low level was sorted out, and the Sugar Sales Data in August was better than expected, but the industrial inventory pressure was still at a high level in recent years. In addition, the area under domestic sugar crop cultivation has rebounded this year, and sugar production in 2022/23 is expected to rebound to 10.35 million tonnes in 2022/23 if the weather conditions in the later producing areas are normal. Moreover, Guangxi issued the "Guangxi SugarCane Production Protection Zone Management Measures", which helps to ensure the stability of the sugar cane planting area, and at present, it has a slightly negative impact on the market. In the international market, it is currently expected that European sugar production will decrease while Brazilian sugar production may increase, and short-term sugar price shocks are weak. Global sugar is expected to be overproductive in 2022/23, and attention should be paid to the progress of sugar production in Brazil in the later period and the situation after the opening of India. Sugar price performance may continue to be weak, and short selling on the high is still the main operating strategy.
Cotton, cotton yarn	【Market review】 This week, the cotton shock weakened, and the main contract of Zhengmian rose 1.04% to 14530. Cotton yarn fell 0.94% to 21120. 【Important information】 A cotton field in the 102nd regiment of Wujiaqu City in northern Xinjiang has begun to pick new cotton. A small number of ginning factories in Bachu and Maigeti counties in southern Xinjiang sporadically purchased hand-picked cotton, with a purchase price of 6.8-7.0 yuan / kg, and cotton farmers generally did not accept it, and the enthusiasm for delivery was limited. Lint cotton and cotton yarn futures are running weakly, and it is difficult to boost the enthusiasm of the new year. Shandong Liaocheng Gaotang new cotton a small amount of spit, picking, although individual gin factories have opened the scale, but the purchase and sale of sporadic, the market cautiously wait and see, the purchase price of 3.7-3.8 yuan / catty. Cotton yarn futures have recently fallen sharply, spot is still stable, airflow spinning 10s fell slightly, the overall sales atmosphere is weak, there is a difference in the volume of goods between large factories and small factories, and some enterprises have not sold high-priced cotton yarn, and inventory pressure still exists. 【Trading strategy】 Cotton continues to be weak, and short-term wait-and-see is the mainstay. Cotton arbitrage can be considered 1-5 positive sets. In terms of options, volatility remains on the high side, the upside space is limited in the later stage, and the medium-term short volatility strategy is the mainstay.
pulp	【Market review】 Futures market: Pulp futures main contract rose sharply this week by 2.9%, closing at 6774 yuan / ton Spot market: spot transaction is just needed, the main futures contract is running strongly, some players follow the disk surface to adjust the price, soft pulp price to maintain a high level of operation, the actual transaction price trend of the downstream base paper market is different, and the demand side has not seen significant positive support for the pulp market. The average weekly price of imported softwood pulp was 7314 yuan / ton, up 0.79% from last week; the average weekly price of imported hardwood pulp was 6684 yuan / ton, up 0.08% from last week. 【Important information】 Double adhesive paper market range sorting. The price of large-scale paper mills is mainly stable, and the shipment level is general; Small and medium-sized paper mill orders in general, some slightly loose, more stable last month, downstream dealers cautiously stockpiled, just need to make up for the main, individual exploration, but the order is insufficient, the price upward is slightly weak, the downstream printing plant transaction is limited, the demand side has not seen a significant change. The white cardboard market has tentatively increased by 100-200 yuan / ton, and the local low price has moved up slightly, and the overall market volatility is limited. The overall market price is upside down, driven by cost support and price increases of large-scale enterprises, traders explore the market and pull up. South China as a domestic low-price area, the market upward atmosphere is relatively strong, the price rose by about 100 yuan / ton, the terminal demand recovery is not obvious, the market shipment is slow, and the downstream is still under the price of procurement, the overall market is weak, the industry confidence in the future market is not strong. The household paper market is consolidated strongly, and the rhythm of high-priced goods is general. The quotations of paper enterprises in Hebei are constantly rising, mainly affected by costs, but the pace of high-priced goods is not fast, and the intention of paper companies to hold prices is obvious; Paper enterprises in Shandong have been continuously improving, supply has recovered, the price of goods from other provinces has moved up, and the center of gravity of transactions is strong; Paper prices in Henan are relatively stable, paper companies are still acceptable, individual paper companies are overhauled, and some paper companies plan to increase; The changes in the start of paper enterprises in Sichuan and Chongqing are limited, logistics and transportation are slightly affected, paper enterprise shipments are slowing down, and the price increase letter has not yet landed. 【Trading strategy】 This week's pulp futures are running strongly, the 09 contract is close to the delivery date, a strong breakthrough of 8,000 yuan / ton, a new high for listing, and higher than the spot price and import costs, and drive the pulp forward price up. This week, the port pulp inventory fell slightly, and the pulp imports in August were 2.61 million tons, an increase of 430,000 tons month-on-month, which was the first time since February that the supply rebounded significantly, but this year's non-needle hardwood pulp imports were more, so the import volume of bleaching needle pulp still needs to wait for the release of later data. The approaching delivery has made the contradiction of tight supply fermented again, but compared with the previous period, from the perspective of domestic port wood pulp inventory and global shipments, the supply is still tight but not further intensified, the domestic finished paper market continues to be weak, the operating rate of domestic paper mills has declined, the price of white cardboard paper has continued to decline, and the profitability of paper mills is still not good. However, the recent sharp depreciation of the exchange rate has caused import costs to fall back without following the downward adjustment of foreign quotations, and remained around 7600. On the whole, the improvement of global pulp supply has appeared but it takes time to return to normal, the short-term support for spot prices, the recent exchange rate depreciation to raise import costs, demand problems continue to ferment, compared to the domestic demand continues to be poor, the risk of a sharp decline in overseas demand needs more attention, so the forward pulp price remain cautious bearish view, waiting for the contradiction to ferment, the medium-term is still recommended to short the long month, the exchange rate depreciation raises the disk operation range, 01 contract concerns 6800-7000 yuan pressure. In terms of arbitrage, the long, near and short can continue to pay attention, especially in the period near the delivery month.
apple	Futures prices: The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week, closing at 8679 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 5.27%. Spot price: Shandong area paper bag Fuji 80 # above the first and second level of goods this week's transaction weighted average price of 3.86 yuan / jin, compared with last week's weighted average fell by 0.03 yuan / jin, a drop of 0.77%; Shandong Qixia Daliu Jiahong General 80 # above the mainstream quotation of 3 yuan / jin, down 1.15 yuan / jin from last week; Shaanxi Luochuan precocious Fuji 70# starting semi-commodity price is 3.5-4 yuan / catty, down 1 yuan / catty from last week. (Zhuo Chuang) 【Important information】 (1) Inventory in production areas: As of September 8, the national cold storage apple inventory was 322,600 tons, which continued to be lower than the 537,000 tons in the same period last year, of which the inventory in Shandong was 319,200 tons, 496,400 tons in the same period last year, and the inventory in Shaanxi was 0.34 million tons. Inventory consumption for the week was 138,400 tonnes, down slightly sequentially and at a relatively high level year-on-year. (Zhuo Chuang) (2) Market comments: The Apple 10 contract has fallen significantly this week, mainly due to the emotional pressure formed by the sharp decline in the price of early apples. Zhuo Chuang information shows that the early ripening apples in the production area have shown a significant decline, and the mainstream price fell by 1-1.5 yuan / catty this week. For apple futures, it is still dominated by expectations, and the factors currently affecting expectations revolve around the closing price of old fruits, the weather fluctuations of new fruits, and changes in the early apple market. Overall, the consumption off-season and the increase in the volume of early-ripening apples will pressure spot prices, thereby suppressing the market sentiment of apple futures prices, but the support for production cuts is still there, and the overall high range is expected to remain unchanged. The recent decline in futures prices is temporarily understood as a reflection of the sentiment of the sharp decline in the price of early apples, and we do not yet think that the overall trend has changed, and the operation recommends continuing to maintain a high range fluctuation as a reference. 【Trading strategy】 Apple futures price continues to have downward space or limited, and it is recommended to continue to maintain the range of ideas in operation.
Jujube	Futures market: The futures price of red dates closed up slightly this week, closing up 105 yuan / ton or 0.86% to 12280 yuan / ton. Spot market: spot price shock operation, little change, Cuierzhuang market special reference 11.5-13 yuan / kg, first-class 10.1-12 yuan / kg; Henan market special grade 11.5-12.8 yuan / kg, first class 10.4-12 yuan / kg; Guangzhou Ruyifang Market special grade 10.8-14.5 yuan / kg, first class 9.8-13 yuan / kg. 【Important information】 According to Zhuo Chuang information, the Hebei market this week walked 506 tons, down 12% month-on-month, and the Henan market volume was 381 tons, down 9.72% month-on-month. According to mysteel agricultural survey data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 7203 tons, a decrease of 211 tons from last week, a decrease of 2.85% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 42.38%. 【Trading strategy】 Mid-Autumn Festival stockpiling into the end, the market and destocking speed fell slightly, 09 contract into the delivery month, warehouse receipts gradually flowed out, the market arrival pressure is larger, short-term spot prices are difficult to strengthen. However, the cost support still exists, and the consumption of dates gradually turns from light to strong after the weather turns cold, the downward space of the price is also limited, and the spot price is mainly short-term shock. 2022/23 year of jujube inventory year-on-year decline, production is estimated to recover year-on-year compared with the normal year there is still a reduction in production, due to last year's higher purchase price, this year's planting cost increased, jujube farmers expect higher sales price, but the industrial side often combined with the expected sales price and profit backwards to determine the purchase price, the ability to accept high prices is limited, the later focus on the upstream and downstream game of the industrial chain, the jujube futures price has no obvious unilateral drive, treated with a wide range of shock ideas. Pay attention to the market and sales prices in September, and pay attention to whether there is excessive rainfall affecting the commodity rate. Operationally: Treated with an interval-biased approach.
Pig	This week's hog futures price high wide range shock. As of Friday's close, the 11 contracts closed at 22310 yuan / ton, down 0.53% week-on-week, and the main 01 contract closed at 23090 yuan / ton, up 0.28% week-on-week. 11 basis difference (Henan) 670 yuan / ton, up 540 yuan / ton week-on-week, 01 basis (Henan) 20 yuan / ton, up 620 yuan / ton. Pig spot price turned into a high weak shock, the average price of three yuan pig spot outside the country was 23.18 yuan / kg, down 0.51 yuan / kg week-on-week, the weight of the barn increased slightly, the enthusiasm of the breeding end was improved, and the slaughter volume rebounded significantly this week, but the absolute amount was still at a low level. Piglet prices stopped falling and rebounded. 【Important information】 On September 5, the first batch of frozen meat dumping reserves of Huachu Network was announced, and the central reserve was listed on September 8 for 37,700 tons of frozen meat auction trading. Fundamental important data, as of the week of September 4, Zhuo Chuang weekly data show that the weight of the 36th week out of the column is 122.50kg, an increase of 0.22kg week-on-week, down 0.70% year-on-year, the pork storage capacity rate is 23.40%, the ring last week increased by 0.74%, down 1.17% year-on-year. Pig trading weight stabilized slightly, slaughter volume continued to rebound at a low level throughout the week, but the absolute volume was still low in the second quarter, and the slaughter volume of sample enterprises this week was 639,700 heads, up 4.13% from last week and down 8.26% year-on-year. Boya Hexun data show that the 36th week pig food ratio of 8.24:1, up 5.40% month-on-month, up 63.58% year-on-year, outsourced fattening profit of 800 yuan / head, up 108 yuan / head, up 1937 yuan / head, self-breeding profit of 669 yuan / head, up 142 yuan / head, up 1089 yuan / head, the profit of the breeding end is at a high level in the same period of history; The average price of Zhuo Chuang 7KG piglets was 73.18 yuan / kg, down 4.17% from last week and up 104.41% year-on-year; the price of binary sows was 35.80 yuan / kg, down 0.50% from last week and down 16.41% year-on-year. The pig-to-food ratio is once again approaching the national 9:1 three-level excessive rise warning range. 【Trading strategy】 The recent return of the heat of the breeding sector, since mid-August, with the pig price stopping falling, the capital position reduction and monthly change has led to the gradual return of the 09 basis, and the forward contract has once again gone higher to react strong expectations. Pig fundamentals, the supply of 8-9 months out of the barn phased probability of rebound, but due to the peak of the capacity of breeding sows in the past superimposed fattening in the first quarter of the supply front, the absolute output of pigs is difficult to be higher than April, in addition, farmers gradually expand profits, driving the industry to sell and pressure the mood increased, stampede-style collective selling behavior probability will not reappear. The consumer end of the white strip to the pig price spread narrowed, the terminal short-term did not fully follow the rapid rise in pig prices, the market in the early digestion of the rapid increase. The near end needs to pay attention to the concentrated sales of large pigs in the early stage of the farmers in August and September, which brought about the phased supply pressure and the recovery of downstream consumption. In addition, after the price of white strip pigs has risen, the enthusiasm for frozen inventory to go out of the warehouse has increased, and there is a collective demand for cashing profits in the upstream of the stage. In terms of trading, the current futures price has the time and space expected to speculate on the peak season, but the price of the long-term futures price is relatively sufficient, especially the current overall pricing of the 2211 and 2301 contracts at the end of the year is relatively optimistic, which has been significantly higher than the cost of self-propagation and outsourced fattening, the futures price is highly valued, and the recent policy pressure is highlighted, and there is no strong drive to recommend buying mainly in depth or buying 11 empty 01 arbitrage holdings. 【Risk points】 The epidemic has led to inventory losses, the new crown epidemic has led to consumption that is less than expected, feed costs have dropped significantly, and the reserve policy has been
Egg	【Market review】 This week, the egg futures price opened low and went high, the egg spot price stopped rising and fell, and the spot end peak season is expected to be cashed out in stages. As of Friday's close, the main 01 contract closed at 4270 yuan / 500 kg, up 0.52% week-on-week; the average price of eggs in the main production area was 5.57 yuan / kg, down 0.27 yuan / kg week-on-week, the average price of the main sales area was 5.76 yuan / kg, down 0.17 yuan / kg from yesterday, the national average price was 5.54 yuan / kg, and the week-on-week fell 0.24 yuan / kg. Eliminated chickens nationwide average 5.92 yuan / catty, up 0.15 yuan / catty from last week. 【Important information】 1. Weekly Zhuo Chuang data shows that as of the week of September 2, the national egg production link inventory was 0.96 days, down 0.13 days from the previous week, down 0.16 days from the previous week, and the circulation link inventory was 0.70 days, down 0.08 days from the previous week and 0.35 days from the same period last year. The average daily age of eliminated chickens is 518 days, 2 days earlier than last week, and 29 days later than last year; This week's soybean meal and corn prices trend is strong, egg prices soared sharply to drive the profit of layer chicken breeding to a high level in the same period of history, this week's national average breeding profit of 1.46 yuan / catty, up 0.31 yuan / catty week-on-week, up 0.51 yuan / catty; This week, the sales volume of the representative sales area was 8086 tons, an increase of 9.42% month-on-month and 8.25% year-on-year. As of the end of August, the number of laying hens in the country was about 1.182 billion, down 1.05% month-on-month, down 9.07% year-on-year, and the production capacity fell month-on-month. 2, market comments: the overall sentiment of the aquaculture sector has recently picked up, the double festival peak season has been boosted, downstream consumption has strengthened, and the price of soybean meal and corn at the raw material end has rebounded to form a marginal benefit to egg prices. However, under the disturbance of the epidemic, the overall consumption of this year is not strong, and the price of feed raw materials has fallen from the first half of the year, which has moved the egg pricing center down, in addition, the production capacity cycle of layer chickens has been downward, and the price of the far month is weighed down by the decline in feed costs and the expectation of recovery in the stock, and the overall performance is relatively weak compared with other agricultural products. Fundamentally, the absolute volume of layer chickens in the current production and storage column is still in the low position of the same period in history, but the new laying of layers in July and August this year will continue to be greater than the elimination, and the production and inventory will maintain a rebound trend year-on-year, but since then due to the sharp rise in feed in April to hit the retail household supplement, the new laying hens in September may decline month-on-month. Last week, the profit of breeding fell slightly from the previous week, and after the proportion of old chickens increased, the enthusiasm of farmers to explore chickens increased, and the high age of eliminated chickens fell back. On the whole, the fundamentals of eggs may gradually turn into a strong supply and demand during the double festival, the price of fresh products such as vegetables has begun to trend upwards, and the centralized elimination of old chickens before the holiday may bring certain improvements to the supply side, but the overall consumption downturn this year will also limit the height of the egg price rebound to a certain extent. Operationally, the sentiment of the short-term aquaculture sector has picked up, and it is expected that the futures price will maintain a low shock rebound in the short term, with reference to the important support level of 3900-4000 points of breeding costs. 【Trading Strategy】 Hold long orders cautiously, or buy 01 to sell 05 and choose the opportunity to enter. 【Risk point】 Soybean meal corn price; As a result of the epidemic closure, the period of consumption was less than expected.

This article originated from the financial world