At the beginning of the Asian session on September 13 (Tuesday), U.S. oil traded near $87.7/barrel; Oil prices closed higher on Monday, shrugging off the effects of weak demand expectations as supply concerns mount as winter approaches. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) showed data released Monday that in the week ended Sept. 9, U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories fell by 8.4 million barrels to 434.1 million barrels, the lowest level since October 1984; the Iranian nuclear negotiations are deadlocked again, and Iranian crude oil is not expected to return to the market in the short term.
Intraday focus on the U.S. August CPI annual rate unseasoned OPEC monthly report; API data is released at 4:30 a.m. on Wednesday.
Bullish factors affecting oil prices
【Heating season approaching supply concerns intensified】
Crude inventories from U.S. emergency reserves fell by 8.4 million barrels to 434.1 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 9, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. The release of 8.4 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was the largest since May and brought inventories to their lowest level since October 1984.
After the EU embargo on Russian oil came into effect on December 5, global oil supply is expected to tighten further. The Group of Seven will impose price caps on Russian oil to limit the country's oil export earnings, seek penalties for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and take steps to ensure that oil still flows to emerging countries. However, the U.S. Treasury Department warned that the cap could make oil and U.S. gasoline prices higher this winter.
[Iran says the United States must prove itself reliable to return to the JCPOA]
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Kanani said on the 12th that the United States must prove that it will abide by international norms and become a "reliable member" in order to return to the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue. Kanani said at a regular news conference on the same day that the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Iranian nuclear agreement reached in 2015 and imposed illegal and unilateral sanctions on Iran, causing huge losses to the Iranian government and people. The United States has no right to assume a "creditor posture", and the United States needs to adopt a constructive attitude to reach an agreement on resuming the implementation of the Iranian nuclear agreement.
In response to the US side's recent comment that Iran's latest response to the resumption of implementation of the Iranian nuclear agreement has set back the negotiations, Kanani said that Iran has given the latest response to the "final text" previously proposed by the European Union on the resumption of implementation of the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement and is waiting for the official response of the United States. In its response, Iran did not raise any new issues or serious demands that would hinder the agreement.
The Western countries involved in the negotiations are psychological warfare against Iran, and they want Iran to make concessions. Mr. Kanani also said previous negotiations had prepared for a comprehensive agreement that would serve their interests and could be reached if the West had the political will. U.S. Secretary of State Blinken said Iran's response to the EU's nuclear deal proposal made it unlikely that a deal would be reached in the near future.
【Natural gas price limit can not solve the problem of gas shortage in Europe】
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gar Stelle said on the 12th that Norway will have a closer dialogue with the European Union on the supply of natural gas, but Norway is skeptical about the measure of limiting the price of natural gas. Norway is not a member of the European Union. Before the Ukraine crisis, 40% of the gas used in the EU region came from Russia and 20% to 25% from Norway. After Russia's recent drastic cuts in gas supplies to the EU, Norway became the EU's largest gas supplier. (CCTV News)
[Ukraine continues to counterattack strongly Russian troops retreating from many places]
Ukrainian troops further retake territory from retreating Russian troops on Monday, with residents returning to villages previously in front-line positions, while Russian shells rained down on Kharkiv, setting fires in major cities in the region. Ukraine's general staff said its soldiers had retaken more than 20 towns and villages in the past day alone. President Zelenskiy said Ukrainian troops had retaken 6,000 square kilometers (2,400 square miles) of Russian-controlled land since the beginning of the month, twice as many as the figure released a day earlier.
【Waiting for inflation data for U.S. stocks to continue to rise】
U.S. stocks extended their backgammer on Monday, closing sharply higher as investors waited for key inflation data that could provide clues to the duration and aggressiveness of the Fed's tightening policies. Energy and technology stocks helped the three major U.S. stock indexes hit two-week highs and rose for the fourth straight session, with growth slightly more favored than value stocks.
The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to be released before Tuesday's opening, is the highlight of the week and will be scrutinized by investors looking for any indication of the number and size of future Rate Hikes by the Fed.
Dakota Weather Senior Portfolio Manager Robert S. Pavlik said, "A little bit of A decrease in CPI is expected. Markets hope the news translates into a smaller rate hike after the September FOMC meeting. Because of this, what you see today is a risk-taking mentality. ”
On Thursday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed remains "firmly committed" to addressing inflation, which is at its highest level in decades, and said it would "continue to work until it completes its mission."
Economists interviewed by Reuters expect the August CPI to fall 0.1 percent from July and a year-on-year gain of 8.1 percent, largely due to the recent cooling of commodity prices.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, financial markets have now set the probability of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) implementing a third consecutive 75 basis point hike at the end of next week's policy meeting at 92%.
Pavlik said, "The market has now fully digested the expectation of a 75 basis point hike in September, the market hopes that the next time will be 50 basis points, after which we will see a slight reduction in the rate hike, which Wall Street can accept." ”
All 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 closed higher. Energy stocks were boosted by higher crude oil prices, with the largest percentage gains. Economically sensitive transport stocks outperformed the broader market, while the leading large-cap stocks provided the biggest boost. Apple's stock jumped 3.9 percent, giving the biggest boost to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which released its latest iPhone and Apple Watch last week.
Negative factors affecting oil prices
【Cholera cases in many parts of Syria】
On the 12th local time, the Syrian Ministry of Health issued a statement saying that there were cholera cases in many places in Syria. Among them, there are 20 cases in Aleppo Province, 4 cases in Latakia Province and 2 cases in the Damascus region of the capital. 2 confirmed cases in Aleppo province have died due to lack of timely medical assistance.
[Indonesia will consider buying oil from Russia]
According to the British "Financial Times" reported on the 12th, Indonesian President Joko Widodo said in an interview with the media that Indonesia will consider buying oil from Russia to alleviate the pressure brought about by rising energy costs in Indonesia.
Asked if Indonesia would buy oil from Russia, Jokowi said in an interview with the Financial Times that "we always consider all options." Of course, if there were such a country, (and) they would give a better price."
【Petrobras announces lower price of household LNG】
On the 12th local time, Petrobras announced that the price of household liquefied natural gas sold to distributors was lowered from the previous 4.23 reais (about 5.75 yuan) per kilogram to 4.03 reais (about 5.48 yuan) per kilogram, a price reduction of 4.7%. The price reduction measures will be implemented from September 13. Petrobras said lowering LNG prices is consistent with the company's pricing strategy, which seeks to strike a balance between domestic and international market prices.
[92% probability of fed rate hikes of 75 basis points in September]
According to CME "Fed Watch": the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed by September is 8%, and the probability of a rate hike of 75 basis points is 90%; The cumulative probability of a 75 basis point hike by November is 6.3%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 100 basis points is 73.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 125 basis points is 20%.
Overall, the emergency situation of the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate, with the gradual arrival of winter, the Energy Crisis in Europe is becoming more and more severe, the concerns about crude oil supply are intensifying, and the rising momentum of oil prices is strong; The Iranian nuclear negotiations have once again reached an impasse, making it hopeless for Iranian crude oil to return to the market in the short term, and oil prices are expected to be at the 90 mark in the short term.
This article originated from Huitong Network
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