1. Weather facts
1. Domestic reality
Yesterday, there was scattered heavy rain or heavy rain in Yunnan and South China, Shanxi: From 08 o'clock yesterday to 06 o'clock today, the overall rainfall on the mainland was weak, and scattered heavy rain or heavy rain occurred in southern Shanxi, western Henan and central and eastern Yunnan, western Guizhou, southern Guangxi, southwestern Guangdong, and eastern Hainan Island.
2. Foreign realities
Strong precipitation occurred in Southeast Asia and other places on the Indian Peninsula: the Indian Peninsula, Southeast Asia, the Japanese Islands, Central and Far East Of Russia, Western Europe, Central Europe, Eastern Southern Europe, The Eastern and Western Coasts of Canada, the Western Coast of the United States, Southern Alaska, Mexico, Northern South America, Eastern Australia, West Africa, North Central Africa, North Central Africa, And other parts of the region have moderate to heavy rain, localized heavy rain or heavy rainstorms, and strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.
West Asia and the United States and other places have high temperatures: the Arabian Peninsula, the Iranian Plateau, the Mesopotamian Plain, southern Central Asia, the Indus Plain, western North Africa, the western United States, central Brazil, the northern part of the Río de La Plata Plain, northwestErn Australia and other places The maximum temperature exceeds 35 °C, of which some areas reach 38 ~ 40 ° C, and the local area exceeds 43 ° C.
Second, key weather forecasts
1. Domestic key weather
(1) There is rainfall in the southwest region
From the 10th to the 12th, most of Tibet, most of Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Guangxi, Shaanxi, southern Shanxi, western Henan and other places had light to moderate rain, of which southern Sichuan, Yunnan, western Guizhou, Guangxi and other places were locally heavy to heavy rain.
In addition, from the night of the 11th to the 12th, affected by cold air, there is rain and snow and wind cooling weather in the central and northern parts of Xinjiang, there is light to moderate rain in most areas, and there is sleet or snow in high-altitude mountainous areas; The average temperature will drop by 8 to 10 °C, and the local area will be 12 °C; It is accompanied by northwesterly winds of 5 to 6 and gusts of 7 to 9.
(2) Typhoon Meihua will approach the southern waters of the Ryukyu Islands
The center of this year's No. 12 typhoon "Meihua" (severe tropical storm level) is located at 5 o'clock this morning (10th) on the ocean surface about 770 kilometers southeast of Taipei City, Taiwan Province, with the maximum wind near the center being 11 (30 m/s) and the minimum pressure at the center being 980 hPa.
It is expected that the "plum blossoms" will move northwest at a speed of 15-20 kilometers per hour, gradually increasing in intensity, reaching the strongest level of strong typhoons (45-50 m/s, 14-15) and moving closer to the southern waters of the Ryukyu Islands (see Figure 1).
Figure 1 Typhoon "Plum Blossom" path probability forecast map for the next 120 hours
2. Key weather abroad
(1) There is strong precipitation in Places such as the Indochina Peninsula of India
In the next three days, there will be moderate to heavy rain, localized heavy rain or heavy rain in the Indian Peninsula, Indochina Peninsula, Indonesia, philippine archipelago, Korean Peninsula, central and far east of Russia, northern Central Asia, Western Europe, Central Europe, the southwest coastal and central easterly regions of the United States, Alaska, northern and eastern Canada, Mexico, New Zealand Island, northwestern South America, West Africa, northern Central Africa, and northern East Africa, and other places, with localized heavy rain or heavy rain, and some of the above areas are accompanied by strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.
(2) West Asia, North Africa, the Western United States and other places continue to be high temperature
In the next three days, there will be high temperature weather of more than 35 °C in parts of West Asia, southern Central Asia, North Africa, western United States, northwestern Australia, central Brazil, central South America and other places, and the daily maximum temperature in parts of West Asia, North Africa and other places will exceed 42 °C.
3. Specific forecasts for the next three days
From 08:00 on September 10 to 08:00 on September 11, there was light to moderate rain in parts of the Southern Xinjiang Basin, most of Tibet, eastern Shaanxi, south-central Shanxi, western Henan, western Sichuan Plateau, southern Sichuan Basin, Yunnan, most of Guizhou, most of Guangxi, southern Guangdong, Hainan Island, And Taiwan Island, of which there was heavy rain (25 to 40 mm) in parts of southern Sichuan, western Guizhou, northern Yunnan, and central Guangxi. There are 4-5 winds in parts of northeastern Inner Mongolia and northern Zhejiang (see Figure 2).
Figure 2 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on September 10 to 08:00 on September 11)
From 08:00 on September 11 to 08:00 on September 12, there was moderate to heavy rain in parts of northwest Heilongjiang, eastern Shanghai, northeastern Zhejiang, most of Yunnan, western Guizhou, western Guangxi, and Taiwan Island, of which there was heavy rain (50-90 mm) in northeastern Zhejiang, western Guangxi, and northeastern Taiwan Island (see Figure 3).
Figure 3 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on September 11 to 08:00 on September 12)
From 08:00 on September 12 to 08:00 on September 13, there was moderate to heavy rain in Xinjiang along the Tianshan Region and parts of the Ili River Valley, eastern Shanghai, eastern Zhejiang, western Hubei, south-central Yunnan, western Guangxi, and Taiwan Island, among which there were heavy rains or heavy rainstorms (100-160 mm) in parts of northeastern Zhejiang, southwestern Yunnan, and northeastern Taiwan Island. There are 4-6 winds in parts of southeastern Inner Mongolia, the southern Xinjiang Basin of Xinjiang, and eastern Zhejiang, of which there are 8-9 winds in parts of northern Xinjiang (see Figure 4).
Figure 4 National precipitation forecast map (08:00 on September 12 to 08:00 on September 13)
Fourth, influence and attention
1. In Tibet, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou and other places with heavy rainfall, pay attention to secondary disasters that may be caused by continuous rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and the Sichuan earthquake-stricken areas need to guard against the adverse impact of rainy weather on emergency search and rescue, mass resettlement in disaster areas, etc.;
2. The development trend of Typhoon "Meihua", focusing on the possible impact on the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea and the coastal areas of East China;
3. The impact of high temperature weather in Jiangnan, Jianghan and other places, as well as meteorological drought in the Yangtze River Basin on agricultural production, energy supply assurance, water resource allocation, etc.;
4. From November 11 to 13, the cold air brought strong wind cooling, rain and snow weather and adverse effects to northern Xinjiang;
5. Mid-Autumn Festival holiday weather and meteorological services;
6. Autumn harvest and autumn planting meteorological services.
Production: Zhang Feng Yao Chen Shen Liwen Wang Guanlan Issued: Sun Jun
Source: Central Meteorological Observatory