Since 2022, Wang Jianlin has led his Wanda Group back into the real estate industry, constantly acquiring real estate projects at low prices. "Thirty years of Hedong, thirty years of Hexi", this sentence is most suitable for Wang Jianlin. The reason why Wang Jianlin was able to avoid the biggest problems in the real estate industry and return with blood is because Wang Jianlin has a clear judgment on the real estate industry. For example, Wang Jianlin once predicted: "The existing land supply and stock of housing have led to many local projects not being able to sell; In addition, in the case of continuous growth of local debt in the past two years, local governments mainly rely on land sales to repay debts. In this case, the supply of land and real estate is further amplified, and these two factors have led to an oversupply in the market, and in addition to hot cities, other cities will not need to be regulated for another two years." Looking at Wang Jianlin's prediction now, it has basically been realized.
At present, the mainland's housing resources have indeed been surplus, and the supply and demand for housing in the market has also exceeded demand. According to the data released by the central bank's investigation team, more than 70% of the wealth of mainland urban households is concentrated in real estate fixed assets, but at the same time, the main liabilities of mainland urban households also come from real estate. At present, more than 96.86% of urban families in the mainland already have houses, not only 1.5 sets per household, but also 41.5% of urban families have more than 2 houses. From these data, it can be seen that the ownership rate of housing by mainland residents is already very high, which is enough to show that the mainland has solved the problem of shortage of housing resources. In addition, although the urbanization construction in the mainland is still continuing, the urbanization rate of the mainland's permanent population has exceeded 64%, and the urbanization rate of the household registration has exceeded 44%. Based on these data calculations, it can be concluded that the house owned by urban households alone is enough for all the people in the city to live.
In the past 5 years, the mainland's real estate industry has also developed very fast, especially around 2017, affected by the sharp rise in house prices, various housing enterprises have large-scale land auctions and hoarding to expand their scale. In this regard, a person in charge of a housing enterprise said that who hoards more land and who has the confidence to develop, which is also the fundamental reason why all housing enterprises have large-scale hoarding. The large-scale development projects of housing enterprises have also led to more and more new projects entering the market, and the inventory of the property market is getting higher and higher, which has buried hidden dangers for the development of many housing enterprises. After 2020, the real estate industry has been greatly affected by the financial regulation and control policies of the property market and the epidemic. Although the overall house price trend has become more and more stable since entering 2022, there are still many cities and regions where house prices are falling. At present, the biggest problem faced by housing enterprises is high inventory, high pressure on the capital chain, and financing is also affected, which leads to housing enterprises basically facing a lot of sales pressure.
Not only housing enterprises are facing this situation, many investors are also facing this situation, as the downward pressure on house prices is increasing, the income of investors holding real estate is getting lower and lower, and many investors are facing the continuous depreciation of houses. Faced with this situation, investors stopped investing in properties on the one hand, and began to sell some properties on the other hand. Especially for those investors whose capital chain itself is tight and who need cash flow, they urgently need to sell their houses to withdraw funds. It is also for this reason that since March 2020, the number of second-hand housing listings in the mainland has shown a surging momentum, as of June 2022, most of the first- and second-tier hot cities in the country have more than 100,000 second-hand housing listings, many of which have more than 150,000 second-hand housing listings, and the number of second-hand housing listings in Chongqing (only in urban areas) has exceeded 200,000 sets.
That is to say, after 2 years of development of the property market, the property market has been reversed, in the past, even if the overall housing resources are excessive, due to the large number of investors investing in hoarding real estate, the flow of housing resources in the market is still in short supply. However, with the decline in house prices, the income of investors investing in real estate is getting lower and lower, and the "housing is not speculation" is slowly penetrating the hearts of the people, and the house is no longer the best investment product in people's minds. Especially in the past two years, house prices in many cities and regions have fallen, which has made more and more investors start to sell their properties. Therefore. Today's property market, whether it is new houses or second-hand houses, there is a serious oversupply situation. At present, many investors are in a hurry to sell properties, which makes second-hand houses more and more difficult to sell, the number of buyers is relatively small, and the range of choices they have is really very much. Therefore, according to the current market situation, the house is really not easy to sell, and the realization ability of the house is getting worse and worse.
In this regard, some insiders said that as the trend of house prices becomes more and more stable, the investment value of houses is getting lower and lower, and the era of making money when buying a house has passed. For families who hold more than 2 houses, they will face 3 results in the future.
First: Houses will become harder and harder to sell. Why did people love to invest in property in the past? The fundamental reason is that the house is easy to sell, and it is a kind of hard currency. However, with the gradual surplus of housing resources and the "housing not speculation" slowly penetrating the hearts of the people, people's concept of buying a house is gradually changing. Nowadays, most of the houses are bought for themselves and their families to live, investment is no longer the main purpose, in this case, the quality of the house is becoming more and more important. At present, the quality of most housing resources is relatively poor, with the development of the future real estate industry, there are more and more new commercial houses with good quality, which also means that second-hand houses with poor quality in the future will become more and more difficult to sell. The house is a commodity, and in addition to living, the surplus house cannot be regarded as wealth if it cannot be sold.
Second: it is becoming increasingly difficult to rent out a house. For people who invest in houses, the income mainly comes from two aspects, one is the income brought by the appreciation of the house, and the other is the income brought by the rental house. However, as far as the current property market policy is concerned, in the future, in addition to the first- and second-tier hot cities, houses in most cities will become more and more difficult to rent. With the gradual surplus of housing resources, housing prices will slowly return to reasonable levels, and by then most people will be able to afford to buy a house, and there is no need to rent a house. In addition, for the real low-income population, public rental housing, low-cost housing and co-ownership housing will be built more and more in the future.
Third: the cost of house ownership will be higher and higher. Holding real estate has always had a cost, but in the past, house prices rose by a large margin, and people ignored the cost of holding a house. But now that house prices are fluctuating less and less, the cost of holding real estate is slowly becoming prominent. In addition, now that property fees are getting higher and higher, there is a possibility that property taxes, lease taxes and vacancy taxes will be introduced in the future, which means that the cost of people holding properties will become higher and higher in the future.
It can be seen that the income from investing in real estate is gradually decreasing, while the cost of holding real estate is rising. A drop and a liter, which also means that the future holding of real estate will not only not get too much income, but may even face losses. Do you think it will fall or continue to rise for the future trend of house prices?