In this year's playoff Philadelphia vs Raptors series, Philadelphia, which has Embiid + Harden, has obviously a better chance of qualifying than the Raptors with a "mediocre" lineup. But even if Philadelphia, led by the "Ma Daha" combination, took the lead in taking the lead in the big score of 3-0, it still gave people a feeling of instability, and it seemed that it could be overturned at any time.
In addition to the black history of Rivers' repeated 3-1 lead being reversed, it is mainly because Harden has not fully played, Embiid is plagued by injuries, and Maxi's attack is not stable enough. Although in the end, Philadelphia still managed to eliminate the Raptors to advance to the second round with a big score of 4-2, but they "lost" Embiid in G6...
0-2 down: Embiid was sidelined after an injury as Philadelphia lost two straight games against the Heat
In Philadelphia vs Raptors G6, although Philadelphia successfully harvested the game with a huge advantage of 132-97. However, the star Embiid was hit in the face by Siakam's elbow in a defensive attack, resulting in a "fracture of the right eye socket + a slight concussion". This, combined with previous injuries to torn finger ligaments, forced him to miss the Philadelphia vs Heat series (return date undecided).
Without Embiid's blessing, the most crucial point for Philadelphia to win the series with the Heat is to avoid losing two consecutive games and avoid falling behind 0-2 (after all, with Embiid's injury, even if it can force a comeback, it will take time).
Unfortunately, Philadelphia without Embiid is like no soul. Obviously, the Heat are not a particularly strong team, but they still have no ability to fight back. After two matches, they lost the matches 92-106, 103-119 respectively...
After losing consecutive games, Philadelphia is now in a state of "life hanging by the line". And judging from the first two games, Philadelphia's only hope for winning the series is Embiid's comeback. But once G3 returns to the home and loses another game, then the disadvantage of falling behind 0-3 at that time will make them fall into a situation of "no return".
If these four shortcomings cannot be changed, even Embiid's comeback will be difficult to turn over
In fact, G3 Philadelphia is not saying that there is no chance to win, as long as they can improve their shortcomings exposed in the first two games in time, there will be a great probability of winning the G3...
1, G1 and G2's poor outside shooting rates, at least have to return to normal. While in terms of Philadelphia's roster and star ability, their three-pointers are destined not to be the league's top presence. But this year they also had 36.4 percent (seventh in the league) and 36.2 percent (sixth in the league) in the regular season and 36.2 percent in the playoffs.
However, in the first two games of Philadelphia vs Heat, Philadelphia's shooting percentage from outside the three-point line was extremely bad — G1 was only 17.6% (6 of 34), and G2, although improved, was only 26.7% (8 of 30 shooting). This is a fairly significant gap from their three-point performance in the regular season and the first round of the playoffs.
If Philadelphia still want to win the G3, they must first shoot the ball and play the regular three-point level. Otherwise, judging by the overall three-point shooting rate of these two games, they still only have the share of being "abused"...
2. Someone on the bench has to stand up and reduce the burden on the team's starting lineup. G1 Philadelphia bench faced the Heat's defense and scored just 21 points, or 32 percent from the field, while G2 scored 19 points, or 41.1 percent. In contrast, heat bench G1 scored 42 points, shooting 65.3 percent; Hiro's 9-of-17 shooting alone, 25 points, 1 board and 7 assists, has already broken the Philadelphia bench.
And even if G2 offensive efficiency has declined, the Heat bench still has 52 points and a shooting rate of 53.1%. Judging from the offensive firepower of the bench in the first two games, Philadelphia's bench lineup can not effectively help the team at all. If Rivers can't follow up with the offensive firepower of Selbe, Milton, Colkmaz and others, then it will be really difficult to beat the heat with a balanced lineup just by starting the lineup.
3. There is no qualified interior line, resulting in the team's defense and rebounding falling behind. In the first two games against Philadelphia, in addition to the three-point line and the bench offensive firepower is far inferior to the Heat, because Embiid's injury has also turned Philadelphia's inner mid-line advantage into a disadvantage.
From the current situation in Philadelphia, they lack a qualified center after Embiid can't play. After all, the combination of Jordan Jr. and Reid's interior line not only can't provide a certain defense for the team, but also can't even keep the rebounds.
The Heat's inner line has the blessing of Adebayor, Dedmund and others, facing Philadelphia without Embiid, which gives them a good advantage on the inside line - G1 grabbed 6 more frontcourt rebounds (9-15) than Philadelphia, and G2 also grabbed 3 more frontcourt rebounds (5-8) than Philadelphia.
4. Harden's offensive end has been "pulling crotch" successively, and he has never been able to play a super star performance. After Embiid's injury, in fact, whether it is outside or inside the team, almost everyone believes that Philadelphia wants to compete with the Heat, and the key lies in whether Harden can play the offensive state of the "Rockets".
As long as Harden can restore the offensive firepower of the "Rockets", even if it is not 35 points and 40 points per game, as long as he can recover to about 25 points per game, it will be a great help for Philadelphia.
But in fact, under the defense of the Heat, Harden G1 only shot 5 of 13, 16 points, 9 boards, 5 assists + 38.5% shooting rate performance; and G2 Harden is still "struggling" - a single game 16 shots 6, 20 points, 4 boards, 9 assists + 40.0% shooting rate of the personal performance.
From the perspective of the last two games, Harden's offensive performance is an average of 18 points + 39.2% shooting per game, and perhaps Embiid is still on the court and can take on the main offensive task, Harden's offensive performance will not hurt the team too much. But now that Embiid has retired injured, whether Harden can "support" the offensive end is the key to whether Philadelphia has turned over or not.
In summary, the poor shooting rate on the outside, the offense of the bench "pulling the crotch", the lack of qualified interior defenders, and Harden's inability to "support" at the offensive end are the main reasons why Philadelphia lost two consecutive games in the series and fell behind 0-2. If Philadelphia wants to win the G3, it can only try to improve the shortcomings revealed by the first two games.
However, from the perspective of these four shortcomings, the defensive and rebounding problems in Philadelphia's mid-line are obviously unsolvable. After all, this is a problem that belongs to the squad, and this can only be alleviated to a certain extent until Embiid returns.
In addition, whether it is the outside shooting rate, or the firepower of the bench, or Harden's offense, it can be improved to a certain extent. In particular, whether Harden can "support" on the offensive end, play the offensive performance of the "Rocket Deng", break the Heat's defensive formation and drive his teammates to score, is the key to Philadelphia's victory over G3. Otherwise, once G3 is lost, then even if Embiid returns, Philadelphia will have a hard time turning over...