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The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

author:Military sub-plane

"Military Sub-Plane" author: Blood Blade

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

At present, the Russian military has three major strategic objectives. The first goal is to establish control over the coastal areas of Donbass and even the southern part of Ukraine, and to improve the land corridor to Crimea; the second goal is to control the coast of the Sea of Azov with Mariupol as the core and the lower reaches of the Dnieper River as the core after the occupation of Donbas; the third goal is naturally to end the war before the victory of the Great Patriotic War, which the Russian military top brass most expects.

Obviously, the probability of ending the Great Patriotic War before the victory of the Great Patriotic War is very low. At the beginning of the war, the Russian army attacked on three sides to divide and encircle the Ukrainian army, and repeatedly carried out large-scale in-depth interspersing, and even gave people the illusion of getting everything done within a week. However, the Russian army soon stagnated on many fronts, not only the logistical supplement was a problem, but the losses of the troops were so large that the Russian army had to readjust and shrink its strength.

For Ukraine, the sooner the war ends, the less naturally the losses will be; for Russia, the same is true. The outcome of such a seemingly disparity in power is likely to be a serious mistake in the intelligence work of the Russian military. It is speculated that Russian military intelligence personnel rely too much on past experience, so they put into work with stereotypes and blind optimism, and even some officials have serious corruption problems.

There are many hidden dangers in black-box intelligence collection that seems to save money

At present, the collection of military intelligence in Russia is mainly the responsibility of the General Directorate of Military Intelligence, the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation and the Federal Security Service, in addition to a number of other departments and separate intelligence agencies belonging to the various branches of the armed forces, which undoubtedly contrasts greatly with the unified model of intelligence agencies in the Soviet era. This can easily lead to inadequate communication and cooperation between various units, and even to fight with each other, and the information obtained by each unit in a certain direction is often contradictory.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

▲ Russian Federal Security Service

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the income of intelligence personnel was also greatly reduced by the impact of the overall economy, so many of them either found another way out or switched to other countries, and even served the West! This undoubtedly poses another major hidden danger to Russia. Beginning in the 1990s, two wars in Chechnya forced Russia to find a way to maintain a large intelligence system with minimal funds, so it could only hope to use underground companies and even intelligence mercenaries just to make money.

Objectively speaking, this kind of emergency rescue method did play a considerable role, for example, when the Russian army later killed a number of Chechen bandits, it relied on many intelligence traffickers such as Xie Ruolin. It was also true that the savings were maximized at the time, so the Russian military intelligence agencies mistakenly believed that such methods could become the norm, but they ignored the unreliability and variability of such figures. In addition, the information listened to in this way is often insufficiently true and the collection efficiency is not satisfactory.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

Intelligence peddlers like Xie Ruolin are definitely not completely reliable

The main thing is that this collection method is easily detected by Western counterparts in the dark war of the international intelligence community. In the view of Western agents, if they can effectively pretend to be intelligence peddlers, or use intelligence peddlers as an intermediary medium, and then mix with true and false false information, they can completely confuse the Russian side to the greatest extent. Because the Russian side has been using such methods for many years, Western agents may first release some low-value real intelligence to paralyze the other side, but eventually they will confuse the other side with a major disinformation at a critical moment.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

When Barayev and other bandits were eliminated, the cooperation between Russian agents and underground intelligence companies did play a great role

During the previous War in Chechnya, Western support for Chechnya was limited, especially after the 911 incident, the relationship between Russia and the West heated up rapidly due to counter-terrorism, so the way Russian military intelligence agencies highly used underground intelligence companies to collect information was not a big problem. However, after the Crimean crisis, international relations have suddenly changed, but the Russian intelligence agencies still use the original method, and then form a habitual dependence on them, hidden dangers will quickly erupt, and will also accelerate the intelligence agency officials to corruption!

Corrupt and corrupt by your own people?

As mentioned earlier, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Way the Russian Federation has cooperated with underground intelligence trading companies has indeed been more economical, but it has also left some officials with a channel to eat kickbacks. As we all know, the Russian military has long been the hardest hit area of corruption, and Shoigu's predecessor, Serdyukov, as defense minister, took the lead in selling a large amount of military assets in disguise. In 2019, Admiral Arslanov, deputy chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and head of the General Directorate of Communications, was also arrested for corruption.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

▲ It is said that this is the mansion of a high-ranking russian military official, and it is difficult to say where the construction funds come from

Before the Iraq War, the United States was well aware of the contradictions between Iraqi generals and the corruption of officials, and learned that many Iraqi high-level officials did not have good relations with Saddam Hussein, so they simply spent billions of dollars to bribe hundreds of senior Iraqi military officers. Not only did the bribe-take-money officers receive a large sum of money, but they were also promised to immigrate to the United States as a family after the war or remain senior officials in the new Iraqi government.

In this way, Iraq's defense minister, the Republican Guard, and the commander of the Baghdad City Defense almost all betrayed Saddam Hussein, the Republican Guard almost disbanded itself, and the US ground forces quickly occupied Iraq like an armed parade. There is no doubt that this way of minimizing its own war losses has also attracted the attention of the world, and Ukraine is somewhat similar to Iraq at that time, so Russia naturally hopes to quickly solve the problem in the way used by the US military.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

According to foreign media reports, Betheda embezzled a large amount of money used to bribe the Ukrainian leader

According to the British newspaper The Times, after the Crimean crisis in 2014, Putin spent billions of dollars on bribing ukrainian military leaders, the Secret Service, security officials and even politicians. But it is ironic that almost all of this money was embezzled by Beseda and Bolyuch, the chief and deputy directors of the Fifth Directorate of the Russian Federal Security Service. At the same time as the frenzied corruption, the two corrupt officials also fabricated all kinds of false information, claiming that a large number of high-ranking officials of the Ukrainian army were bribed by them, and the Ukrainian army had no real combat effectiveness to speak of.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

▲ The US military paid a large number of bribes before the Iraq War, which directly shortened the process of the frontal battlefield

Not only that, Besseda and Mr. Bolyuch forged a list of high-ranking Ukrainian bribers and sent it to Putin, claiming that once the Russian army moved, it would only take 20,000 people to achieve its intended goal in a state of almost bloodlessness. The outside world speculates that it is likely that this kind of fake report made Putin finally make up his mind to go to war, but seeing that the East Window incident was about to occur, two corrupt officials secretly revealed the news of the russian army's imminent war to the West in order to create greater chaos to protect themselves.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

▲ In the Stalin era, there were high-ranking Soviet officials who defected

Immediately after the East Window incident, Beseda and Bolyuch were arrested on corruption charges and 150 FSB officials were fired. Of course, the above content is only a side of the Western media, and the Russian side has not released specific details, so the actual situation still needs to be examined. Although the Western media often distort the facts, considering that as early as the former Soviet Union, there were many high-ranking Soviet military officials defecting, and the problem of corruption in the Russian military is difficult to eradicate, so the Russian intelligence department may not be completely fabricated.

Using stereotypical thinking to measure opponents is also the key to the failure of the Russian intelligence war

If the news of corrupt officials inside has yet to be examined, then there is generally no controversy that the stereotypical thinking formed by the Russian military top level based on the old impression directly affects the war. In some of the past wars, the Russian military has often had overwhelming size, firepower and technological superiority, especially in Syria, where the Russian-Syrian coalition has created miracles that the world cannot believe and severely damaged extremist organizations. Although western countries have had many confrontations and contacts with the Russian army in this process, they have not really intervened.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

▲ The victory in Syria also made it inevitable that the Russian army would be overconfident

In this way, the Russian military is naturally more confident in its combat capabilities and deterrence. For Ukraine, the Russian army is completely based on the impression of the Crimean crisis 8 years ago, so that it ignores the huge changes in the Ukrainian army after the events of that year. It is worth mentioning that the Ukrainian army began to promote a number of young and strong generals with good ability that year, and constantly received a variety of knowledge from the West, from informationized combat tactics to advanced weapon technology, which the Russian army had not really noticed.

Before the war, the highest level of the Russian army believed that the total number of Ukrainian troops was only 200,000, and the internal factional struggle was fierce, most of the officers and soldiers did not agree with Zelensky, and combat experience, supplies and morale were all problems. Therefore, the Russian army not only sent more than 20,000 ground troops at the first time, but also carried only a few days of supplies. Until the battle situation was not good, it increased its troops one after another, but at this time, the Russian army had already missed the good opportunity to absolutely lock in the victory at the beginning of the war, and then fell into a war of attrition.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

▲ The Progress of the Ukrainian Army after the Crimean Crisis, the Russian Army did not expect it

In fact, since 2014, the Ukrainian army has undergone a large-scale expansion, and the total number has reached 400,000, of which 150,000 people have always maintained a combat posture on the front line. What is more worth mentioning is that most of the officers and men of these Ukrainian troops have accumulated considerable experience through local sporadic military operations, and their morale is relatively high. In contrast, although the number of Russian troops on the ground seems to be slightly larger, many of them have problems with training and weapons, and the will to fight is quite limited.

Judging from the situation on both sides, if the Russian army wants to win a complete victory, it must reach 2-3 times the strength of the other side in order to digest the home field advantage of the other side's defenders. However, because the Russian army despises the Ukrainian army with an old vision, coupled with the problems in the Russian military intelligence system mentioned earlier, the Russian army will rush to attack under the premise that there is no essential advantage in strength, and even blindly carry out many rapid penetrations regardless of the favorable conditions of the other side's local operations, which not only brings greater losses, but also leads to the lack of consolidation of its own control area.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

Not long ago, British Prime Minister Johnson went to Kiev to meet Zelenskiy

The underestimation of the West is also the defeat of the Russian army, although the West does not directly attack the Russian army, but its various types of special military aircraft maintain a high attendance rate every day, and its space-based satellites have even seen the military points of Russia itself. With such intelligence blessing, the Ukrainian army's defensive warfare will naturally become more and more relaxed. More importantly, Russia did not expect the West to continue to increase its weapons assistance to the Ukrainian army in terms of quantity and variety, and the comprehensive economic sanctions were even more unexpected.

Most of Russia's previously defeated opponents were extremist armed forces that were no different from the stragglers, and these forces were often so disreputable that it was difficult for the West to support them on a large scale and blatantly. As a country with strategic depth and the size of its armed forces, Ukraine is naturally not comparable to extremist forces, and the strategic importance of the country itself is also difficult for the West to give up. This fundamental difference has been ignored by Russia to a certain extent, and it is naturally caused by psychological stereotypes.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

▲ As the war intensified, the funerals of the commander of the Russian military generals continued to increase

According to the current situation, russia and Ukraine have not formed a significant difference in weapons technology, and even the Ukrainian army can offset the size advantage of the Russian army through the information technology provided by NATO. What is even more unfavorable for the Russian army is that Ukraine has entered the muddy season, and a large number of villages and towns in the theater have been fortified, so the Russian army will face great difficulties whether it is rapid mobility or effective attack, and even fall into a new century upgraded version of the Vietnam War swamp.

When stereotypes breed light hostility, fiasco is inevitable

Judging from the history of war, based on the preconceived judgment of the enemy and the lack of real-time comprehensive observation, it will inevitably lead to the emergence of information cocoons. Once such a situation occurs, the enemy's strength, strategic intentions and ability to deal with losses will be seriously underestimated, and in such a situation, even if the other side has the advantage in strength, weapons and technology, it is likely to be confronted by the other side.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

▲ He provoked the Seven Seven Incidents to become Ichiki Kiyono and eventually died of arrogance and contempt for the enemy

In the early days of the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and even in the early days of the Pacific War, the Japanese army relied on the rapid interspersed envelopment assault tactics of light infantry, and once defeated the Kuomintang army and the Western Allies, so the Japanese army began to stubbornly conclude that the material and numerical superiority of the other side was not worth mentioning. After the U.S. 1st Marine Division landed on Guadalcanal under the cover of the fleet, the Japanese quickly mobilized naval and aviation units to counterattack, and its ground forces began to be sent to Guadalcanal. Due to the crushing defeat of the American fleet at the Battle of Savo, the Japanese Army was even more blindly confident.

Ichiki KiyonoDasa, who had provoked the July 7 Incident, even brought only more than a thousand people into battle, and not only was there a serious shortage of heavy weapons and supplies, but the reconnaissance work was also very sloppy. Crucially, he ignored the information provided by the Japanese Navy that the U.S. army's ground forces were larger than tens of thousands of people and equipped with various types of heavy weapons. What is even more ridiculous is that he did not even wait for the coordination of naval and air forces to attack the absolutely superior US army by dealing with the Kuomintang miscellaneous troops. In the end, Kiyono Ichiki and his associates were quickly completely annihilated by the U.S. army.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

▲ The numbers and firepower are at an absolute disadvantage, reconnaissance and tactics are in a mess, how can the Japanese army not be defeated

However, in the Korean War not long after, the US military also followed in the footsteps of its former defeated generals. After the Inchon landing, the Korean People's Army was in a serious disadvantage, and MacArthur, the commander-in-chief of the "United Nations Army", arrogantly extended the war to the border between China and North Korea. At that time, the US military intelligence agencies were convinced that the Soviet Union would not and did not easily send troops, and the poor and weak New China had just been founded, and it did not dare to face the so-called world's most powerful US military for the sake of Korea.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

The arrogant MacArthur at first looked down on China and the Volunteers

At that time, when judging the Chinese army, the US military still took the Kuomintang army in the late anti-Japanese war as a reference standard, believing that the Platon Army would not be much stronger than the Kuomintang army, and the most important thing was that China seriously lacked all kinds of modern weapons, and the air force was almost zero. Not only that, but at that time, cooperation between China and the Soviet Union was limited, and China may not be able to get much weapons assistance. Therefore, the top level of the US military believes that even if China sends troops, the scale will not be large, and the scope of activities may be very limited, at best it is just a demonstration, and it may not be at war with the US military.

However, what MacArthur and others did not expect was that the quality and will of the US military at this time were far inferior to those of the World War II period, and they were even less psychologically prepared for possible engagement with China, while the officers and men of the Volunteer Army were not only determined, but also mostly experienced, and they knew how to use the terrain of North Korea to develop new tactics to counter their superior opponents. As a result, the U.S. military suffered heavy losses in the first three battles, and even MacArthur fell out with the president and eventually lost his reputation.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

▲The underestimation of the volunteer army was the biggest mistake of the US military

Judging from the Japanese army in World War II and the US military during the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, their common problem is that they did not look at their opponents with a rational, comprehensive and developing eye, and overestimated themselves. Today's Russian army has almost repeated all of the above mistakes, so it is not surprising that it is difficult to lose troops in the Ukrainian battlefield and even fall into a situation where it is difficult to ride a tiger.

What is there to wake us up to in the opinions of the US generals?

As one of the most special and large-scale wars in the new century, the Russo-Ukrainian War will naturally make countries study and study repeatedly. Therefore, a series of "landmines" stepped on by the Russian army are naturally the focus of future research in various countries including China, and the United States, which constantly creates opponents in the world, looks for opponents and clamors to return to the Asia-Pacific region, has been known for being good at "learning" from the warring parties for many years, so the losses suffered by the Russian military due to stereotypes will certainly be paid special attention to by the US high-level.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

These losses that could have been avoided were caused by the continuous emergence of problems in the Russian army itself

As early as 2019, Colonel Al, a retired officer in the U.S. Navy and the U.S.-China Strategic Research Specialist, wrote a paper that was later published in the authoritative journal of the U.S. Navy, which made it clear that only by making all kinds of preparations for large-scale wars can we avoid catastrophic defeat in the future, and the most important basis is that the top level must psychologically avoid falling into the wrong cycle of empiricism. Considering that Al had service experience commanding multiple ships, his proposal was quickly taken seriously by the U.S. military hierarchy.

Al said that it is human instinct to judge everything in the world through observation, but in-depth learning is formed by the day after tomorrow, and the learning of the day after tomorrow is often inseparable from the public media. In the information age, public media can provide a lot of knowledge, but it can also make people fall into preconceived notions and trust their first impressions of something too much, because this is the instinctive inertia of human beings. Even if the development of things proves that their early cognition is wrong, these people often have difficulty accepting quickly, let alone changing their thinking.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

▲ The great power game, the most taboo is stereotyped to affect intelligence warfare

What's worse is that many people are affected by their own stereotyped subjective thinking, and then have emotional tendencies in judging a thing, so when looking for evidence related to things, they often affect their motivation for argumentation, that is, only to try to prove what they are happy to see, and collect evidence around this psychology, and even lose reason and avoid evidence that some facts exist but may not be happy with themselves. If the top level of the state makes such a mistake, the consequences are likely to be very serious.

Some think tanks of the US military said that strategic deterrence will also be classified, some are just normal muscles, and some are precursors to war. Both sides will have the following problems before a possible war: thinking that they have a better chance of winning, misjudging the other's main intentions, and underestimating the other's determination not to back down. In his view, if the US top brass judges the situation with preconceived and seriously underestimated the other side, the scene of the crushing defeat of the US military in the early days of the Korean War will repeat itself.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

▲ Some US think tanks believe that the core of Sino-US maritime strategy is absolutely in conflict with each other

In Al's view, the maritime strategy between China and the United States is essentially very conflicting, and China's strategic determination and will are very strong, but the US top level underestimates the danger. Some senior MEMBERS of the US military believe that judging from the still obvious overall military gap between the two sides and the world's resistance to nuclear war, not only is there no possibility of nuclear war, but there will even be no armed conflict between the two sides.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

There is no doubt that a misfire may lead to an escalation of conflict

In the view of New Think Tanks such as Al, these high-level American views are undoubtedly likely to make empiricist mistakes. Because U.S. actions undoubtedly represent its own bottom line in China's view, the possibility of conflict will increase as the STRENGTH of the Plaster's Liberation Army increases. Judging from the intelligence efficiency of the two sides to each other, China has clearly surpassed the United States in efficiency.

The key reason why the Russian army fought like this has been found! The Russian Federal Security Service wants to carry the cauldron?

▲ The thunder stepped on by the Russian army, we absolutely have to avoid

For China, the Russo-Ukrainian war not only means a change in the world pattern, but also means that it will most likely be in a very sensitive position of targeting. In such an all-round challenge, China should evaluate its opponents and itself with a flexible, calm and objective strategic mentality, and in this process, only in the game before the other party to get out of the impact of stereotypes, can it truly gain the initiative.