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Multiple "sequelae" manifestations? The "state of the union" after two months of coexistence with the virus

In the two months since coexistence with the new crown virus, the NEW crown pneumonia epidemic in the United Kingdom has rebounded violently, with a surge in hospitalizations and deaths, severe shortages of medical staff, and great pressure on the health care system. In addition, the high infection rate has also brought a huge impact on many industries such as education and aviation, and based on this situation, the UK's ability to cope with the new wave of outbreaks in the future will be greatly weakened.

On February 21, British Prime Minister Johnson announced the British government's new plan to "coexist with the new crown", saying that the British government will lift all existing new crown restrictions in England from the 24th of the same month, and will no longer provide free new coronavirus testing for the public from April, turning "government prevention and control to personal responsibility". On March 10, according to the latest official data released by the United Kingdom, for the first time, the proportion of deaths from the new crown in the United Kingdom was "relatively stable lower than that of seasonal influenza", and achieved a stage victory of "coexistence with the new crown" (related reading: The United Kingdom took the lead in achieving "coexistence with the virus", and the new crown mortality rate was lower than that of influenza). So what is the current situation in the UK, which has been "living with the virus" for two months?

The number of infected people continued to rise after "lying flat"

Multiple "sequelae" manifestations? The "state of the union" after two months of coexistence with the virus

Figure 1 Data on confirmed positive results in the UNITED Kingdom (Source: [1])

Multiple "sequelae" manifestations? The "state of the union" after two months of coexistence with the virus

Figure 2 Number of deaths within 28 days of testing positive (Source: [1])

According to the National Health Service (NHS), from March 21 to March 27, the average daily hospitalization due to COVID-19 was 2,115, more than double that of a month ago. According to the latest statistics from the Global Change Data Laboratory, a third-party agency, the UK's COVID-19 mortality rate is 5.4 percentage points higher than the EU average by population size.

Carla Steele, senior statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that the epidemic situation is still at a high level in the UK. The epidemic situation in the United Kingdom has deteriorated, in addition to the faster spread of the BA.2 subtype and XE strains of the Ami Kerong variant, the cancellation of prevention and control measures such as self-isolation, the increase in social activities of the public, and the reduction of self-protection measures such as wearing masks are all important factors.

The chain reaction puts the healthcare system under enormous pressure

The number of inpatients has soared, there is a severe shortage of medical staff, and medical institutions are overwhelmed. The "Coexistence with the Virus" scheme puts enormous pressure on the UK healthcare system.

At present, the occupancy rate of hospital beds in the country is 94%. The number of health care workers absent from work due to COVID-19 has increased dramatically, with an average of 28,500 people absent from work every day. A large number of employees are absent from work due to illness and a serious shortage of labor is triggering a "perfect storm". At present, a number of hospitals in the UK have declared a "serious crisis state". A number of medical institutions in England say that the waiting time for emergency departments can be more than 12 hours, and patients are not recommended to come to the doctor unless there is a serious accident or their life is in danger.

In addition, a new wave of the epidemic has exacerbated the run on medical resources, and the number of patients waiting for surgery in the NHS has set a new record, with 6 million patients waiting for treatment in non-emergency situations, and medical information continues to be in short supply. According to the UK Social Attitude Survey at the end of March, the country's residents' satisfaction with the NHS fell by 17 percentage points to its lowest level in 25 years. It is also the first time since 2002 that the number of dissatisfied people in the UK about health services has exceeded the number of satisfied people.

After contracting COVID-19, the long-term COVID-19 symptoms that patients may experience will continue to put pressure on the healthcare system, and the reduction in income due to the limited ability of patients to work will also increase the pressure on medical and financial expenditures.

Affected by the epidemic, the economic situation is dismal

At present, the high infection rate after liberalization has had a serious impact on the economic and social operation of the United Kingdom, and this impact involves all aspects.

1. Large-scale absenteeism of teachers. According to the latest data from the British Ministry of Education, the number of absentees in public primary and secondary schools in the United Kingdom reached 179,000 on March 31, 1.7 times that of February. About 10% of teachers are absent from work due to COVID-19; 20% of public primary and secondary school teachers are absent from work, and the proportion of teachers absent from public primary and secondary schools has exceeded 15%. Unfortunately, this round of "absenteeism" also coincides with the "critical moment", with the UK General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) and High School Curriculum (A-levels) exams to be held on May 16, forcing many UK schools to take contingency measures and have to concentrate their limited resources on candidates (Figure 3).

Multiple "sequelae" manifestations? The "state of the union" after two months of coexistence with the virus

Figure 3 Students taking mock exams during the pandemic (Source: [2])

2. The outlook for the food and beverage industry remains uncertain. According to the British newspaper The Guardian, restaurants and bars packed with customers over the weekend may give the impression that the restaurant industry seems to have recovered from the pandemic, but the reality is not so optimistic[2]. Many British restaurant companies have not survived the sharp decline in customers in the first two years. Analytical data released in January by US financial advisory firm AlixPartners showed that 8,228 food and beverage establishments in the UK closed in 2021, accounting for 7% of the total, with pizza and burger restaurants being the most affected. For those returning to work, they still need to work hard to deal with the "after-effects" of the COVID-19 pandemic, not only to repay the debt of the past two years, but also to deal with rising fuel prices, product prices and labor costs. For Uk pubs, restaurants and cafes, the outlook for the restaurant industry remains uncertain.

3. Flight cancellations by several airlines. According to the British Small Business Federation, about 14% of businesses are currently unable to operate normally due to the epidemic. According to the Times, a number of British airlines have cancelled flights due to the increase in the number of employee infections. On 7 April, easyJet cancelled 72 flights, twice as many employee absentees as usual, and British Airways cancelled 50 departures.

"Coexistence with the virus" has sparked fierce public criticism

Since the implementation of the "coexistence with the virus" program in the United Kingdom, it has attracted strong opposition from many people in the scientific community. Experts say that the premature lifting of restrictions is likely to lead to the accelerated spread of the new crown virus, which is not based on scientific guidance, violates the basic principles of public health, and puts children, the elderly and other susceptible people at risk. Recently, more than 2,000 people in the British scientific community urgently issued a joint open letter criticizing the British government's "coexistence with the new crown virus" plan to put the country in a more dangerous situation.

Chandler Nag Paul, president of the Board of Governors of the British Medical Doctor Association, said: "The UK government's policies put vulnerable groups at risk. ”

Kit Yates, a mathematical biologist at the University of Bath in the United Kingdom, said that after the large-scale free testing stopped, many people could not afford the cost of weekly testing, so they would choose not to test, "the government's emphasis on 'personal responsibility' can not be talked about."

Stephen Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds School of Medicine, said: "'Coexistence with COVID-19' will weaken the UK's ability to cope with future outbreaks. The losses caused by the epidemic are far higher than the money saved by cutting testing programs, and we can't just look at the immediate future. ”

Simon Clark, a microbiologist at the University of Reading in the UNITED, said: "It is wishful thinking to think that the new crown virus is bound to get weaker and weaker. Unfortunately, in the UK and some other parts of the world, there are some who have been trying to downplay the severity of the outbreak. ”

Danny Altman, a well-known Infectious Disease Immunologist in the United Kingdom, said, "'Coexistence with the new crown virus' is like the public relations jargon unique to the Policy Office, which is incompatible with modern medicine." We never tell people that they just need to learn to live with HIV, tuberculosis or malaria to be safe."

Patrick Valance, chief scientific adviser to the UK government, said the outbreak was far from over, that there was still "a lot of room" for the coronavirus to evolve, that it could continue to evolve rapidly in the coming years, and that "there is no guarantee that the risk of the next mutated strain will be reduced".

Richard Hatchett, CEO of the Alliance for Innovation in Epidemic Preparedness, pointed out that as long as the virus transmission rate is high and there are unprotected groups, an environment where the virus may mutate is likely to occur. Viruses are constantly evolving, and unpredictable viruses can cause a pandemic at any time.

Many experts said they would like to see the UK and Europe "return to a more pragmatic, data-led" anti-epidemic policy, and cannot pretend that it does not exist by ignoring the virus.

Source: ORF website, for academic communication only.

Written by | Luna

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Resources:

[1]https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[2]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/09/as-britain-learns-to-live-with-covid-it-faces-a-new-pandemic-of-disruption

[3] Coexisting with the virus for two months, multiple sequelae of British society have emerged

https://health.huanqiu.com/article/47eaNuD7BWp

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