Russia recognizes the independence of the two "republics" of Eastern Ukraine the real game has just begun

On the evening of February 21, Moscow time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree declaring the independence of the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic" in eastern Ukraine. The long-running Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the international situation associated with it have made waves again.

Donetsk and Luhansk are two oblasts in eastern Ukraine that border Russia. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the eastern region of Ukraine bid farewell to Russia with the independence of Ukraine. However, at present, the proportion of Ukrainians and ethnic Russians in the region is basically equal, Russian is recognized as the mother tongue, and Russia is regarded by many people as the spiritual "motherland". In 2014, the Ukrainian crisis and the Donbass War broke out one after another, and the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic" declared their independence. Since then, the confrontation between The Ukrainian government forces and the civilian armed forces of the two "republics" has continued to this day. But Russia has never officially recognized the independence of the two "republics". Eight years later, against the backdrop of a tightening of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and Russia's proposal for security guarantees to the West, Putin made a move that amazed the world.

On the evening of February 21, Moscow time, President Putin delivered a televised speech reviewing the historical relationship between Russia and Ukraine and further clarifying Russia's position on the Ukrainian issue. In response to a question on whether the independence of the Eastern Region should be recognized, Medvedev, vice chairman of the Russian Security Council, also stressed that since the Minsk Agreement cannot be strongly implemented by the Ukrainian side and the diplomatic dialogue cannot be effective, "it is necessary to demand responsible behavior from the perspective of strength." ”

Moscow's recognition of the independence of the two "republics" of Eastern Ukraine has disturbed many quarters. The Russian news agency quoted a high-level U.S. official as reporting that the United States believes that Russia's behavior will only exacerbate tensions in the Eastern Ukraine region, "war may break out at once, and Moscow is ready to launch a military invasion into Ukraine." British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Russia's recognition of the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk was a serious violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Finland, Romania, Poland and other countries have called on the European Council to "respond to Russia's aggressive acts with the harshest sanctions." Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said that this is Russia's unilateral withdrawal from the Minsk Agreement, Ukraine will reserve the right to carry out individual and collective defense, and the international community's recognition of Ukraine's territorial boundaries will not be changed by Russia's actions.

Is Russia's move really exacerbating tensions and making war "imminent", as the West says? The Russian side has a completely different interpretation of this.

Kortunov, director general of the Russian Council on International Affairs, said in an interview with the media that recognizing the independence of the Eastern Region will be conducive to the stability of the situation in the Eastern Region. "At least formally, a clash between the Ukrainian government and civilian armed forces in eastern Ukraine is a very different concept than a clash with the Russian army," he said. The Ukrainian authorities should be well aware of the pros and cons, and the new military standoff could push Tensions in Ukraine towards peace and stability. Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of the presidium of the Russian Foreign and Defense Policy Committee, believes that "after the russian troops entered Doneysk and Luhansk, the possibility of a hot war on the ground has been significantly reduced." Russia's political stance on military deterrence is transparent enough and has not exceeded Western expectations. This move only effectively legitimizes the long-standing reality in eastern Ukraine, and it is difficult for the West to respond violently to this."

"Reason cannot understand Russia, and the only thing it can do is to believe her." The words of the famous Russian poet Fyodor Chutchev more than 200 years ago still seem to be in context today. If reason cannot understand Russia's behavior, one can perhaps believe that when Russia makes a decision, she is prepared for the possible consequences.

According to Reuters news on February 22, the Biden administration is preparing a new round of economic sanctions against Russia, and U.S. banks may be banned from trading with Russian credit institutions. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that if Russia launches a war against Ukraine, it is not excluded that Brussels will seek to cut off Moscow's ties with global financial markets.

Russia seems to have "gotten used" to Western sanctions and threats. According to the Russian newspaper reported on February 22, Medvedev said in an interview with the media that after recognizing the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, Russia will definitely face new economic sanctions and political pressure from the West, and Russia is ready to deal with new challenges. "Practice has shown that, given Russia's important role in the international system, all those who oppose us today will one day ask us to reopen the dialogue on all issues," he added. History will prove it. In response to Germany's announcement of the suspension of the review of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline project, Medvedev tweeted: "This is good, welcome to the new world!" Europe will soon pay 2,000 euros for 1,000 cubic meters of gas. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova also said on the 22nd that the West's reaction to Russia's recognition of the independence of the Eastern Region is completely predictable in Russia's view, "Don't we know how they will react?" Of course we know. They're just lying. ”

Kortunov, director general of the Russian Council on International Affairs, acknowledged that the reconstruction of the Eastern Region and the possible increase in Economic Sanctions imposed by the West on Russia will inevitably place an unavoidable burden on the Russian economy in the foreseeable future, but this impact is something that Russia can bear. "The West may not be able to exclude Russia completely from the international financial system, and they cannot reject Russian oil and gas," he said. Sanctions against some individuals or businesses will be imposed, but this is within the scope of Russia's tolerance. ”

The analysis believes that the real game may have just begun.

Matthew Bullegger, a researcher at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, recently wrote that Russia's recognition of the independence of the Wudong region shows a change in the rules of the game, and Russia will be able to legitimately and legally defend these areas. No one knows what the outcome is acceptable to Russia.

Russian political commentator Alexander Bounov believes that the West may be united in the face of a real "military invasion" by Russia, but in the face of "peaceful intervention" such as the recognition of the independence of the Eastern Region, there will be obvious differences within the West. He said: "Russia has proved the seriousness of the diplomatic concept of 'military deterrence' with practical actions, even at the expense of serious consequences such as sanctions." Then, for some European countries, out of the re-understanding of Russia's diplomatic concept and the consideration of their own energy security, diplomatic contacts with Russia will not become less, but more. ”

As Fyodor Lukyanov, chairman of the presidium of the Russian Foreign and Defense Policy Committee, said, it is unclear to what extent the developments are in line with the political expectations of Russia's top brass, but it is clear that resolving ukraine through the Minsk Agreement is no longer Russia's choice. However, it is still feasible for Russia to reshape the European security system through the Ukraine issue. "I would say that the real game has only just begun."

Beijing, February 23 (Xinhua) --

China Youth Daily, China Youth Network reporter Zhao Qi Source: China Youth Daily

Source: China Youth Daily