The author is Kong Fan, a reporter for the European Times
The brash and unabashed Donald John Trump is getting closer to the us presidency, and the hearts of European politicians and media people are beating faster and faster, and even if Trump does not enter the White House, it will have a huge impact on Europe.
The feelings of French politicians are more complicated, because there is such a "Trump" in France, and once Trump comes to power in the United States, then the "Trumps" in France and Europe will be more successful and sweep across the European continent.
In fact, the rise of "European Trump" is not a new thing, and the recent re-emergence is due to the fact that Trump in the United States has become an "Internet celebrity". Trump's claims are a mixture of xenophobic nationalism and economic protectionism, and in today's Europe, where migration is an increasingly important political issue, people feel that the EU has failed to respond to its own voices.
It is foreseeable that "European Trump" will once again stir up European politics. There is precedent for this, and after the 2008 financial crisis, Europe fell into a long period of economic stagnation and nationalist politicians jumped up.
In an interview with the French weekly Valeurs Actuelles, Trump said German Chancellor Angela Merkel had made a "terrible mistake" by opening the border to Syrian and Iraqi migrants. Look at Brussels, he said, where militants have become trenches and where a culture of terrorism has spread into a pot of porridge.
Trump unstoppable?
Trump said that if Europe is not able to take decisive measures to control the situation, then, yes, Europe is finished. He said that if your political leaders do not act quickly, intelligently and forcefully, then a real revolution is coming, and you face a turmoil, the scale of which you cannot know.
These words can be regarded as speaking to the hearts and minds of the European people. Because if you are not in it, it is difficult to understand the crisis. The reporter went to the camp in The Calais region of France a few days ago to interview, and then look at the series of problems that refugees have brought to Europe, Trump is not alarmist.
European politicians are immediately nervous, you Trump nonsense in the United States we don't care, but you don't spray on Europe. French Prime Minister Manuel Valls wrote on his personal Twitter post: "Trump preaches hatred like everyone else, and our only enemy is radical Islamism." British Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron called Trump's remarks "divisive, unhelpful and utterly wrong."
French Prime Minister Valls tweeted against Trump
In an interview with French media, Trump admitted that he personally did not know French politicians and had no friends there. Jean-Marie Le Pen, the former president of France's far-right National Front, immediately said yes: I'm here, I'm here. He tweeted that if he were American, he would vote for Trump.
Le Pen, the former president of France's National Front, claimed to support Trump
Although Le Pen was marginalized for his feud with the current President of the National Front, his daughter Marina Le Pen, its influence remains. Although he will not become the "Trump of France", the comrades of the National Front have this potential. Florian Philippot, the party's vice chairman, commented on the US election as follows: "In this election, Trump and Sanders have performed well in both the Democratic and Republican sides. This proves that the U.S. system is facing challenges. In fact, his subtext is that the French system also needs to be challenged.
The current system in France is undoubtedly a time when it needs to be changed. However, neither the right-wing Republican Party (formerly the Popular Movement Alliance) nor the left-wing Grand Socialist Party dare to challenge this system and can only make some tinkering. Everyone knows that one of the biggest problems in France is the problem of immigration, and the crux of the economic, social and other aspects is related to this. But no one dares to say anything about cutting 200,000 migrants, withdrawing from the Schengen Agreement, and leaving the European Union and the eurozone (leaving aside the pros and cons of these policies). The National Front dared to say it and used these as a platform for election.
Reform in France was also difficult. The recent general strike over labor law reforms frightened Hollande. Supposedly, there are often strike marches in France, and the "Dutch beans" should get used to it. But this time is different, with between 220,000 and 450,000 people taking to the streets to demonstrate and protest, with more than 100,000 young people. Hollande was determined to avoid breaking with the young, he knew too well the political background of the student organizations in French high schools and universities, and he could not ignore the mobilization actions of French youth organizations.
Hollande said during his campaign in the 2012 presidential election that "young people come first," when he was convinced he had found a campaign theme that would unite French people of different ages. However, after 4 years in power, young people began to flee From Hollande.
In next year's French presidential election, Hollande seems to want to fight, but it is basically no play. Will France have a Trump? Thanks to Trump's "success," the far right in France has undoubtedly seen the dawn of victory.
In recent years, the confidence of the French far right has grown. In 2014, the "National Front" led by Marina Le Pen won the French municipal elections in March, and even defeated the ruling French Socialist Party in some regions; then won 24 seats in the European Parliament elections in May, far surpassing the two major parties in power and opposition in the country; the first round of the French regional council elections at the end of last year, the "National Front" swept 6 seats in 13 regions, achieving a historic breakthrough. If it were not for Prime Minister Valls's "alliance" with the Republican Party and the containment of the momentum of the "National Front", the result would be really difficult to say.
In next year's presidential election, the two major parties in France are "each pregnant with a ghost fetus" and want to use the "National Front" to suppress each other.
Sarkozy's Republican Party has made it clear that it will not join forces with the Socialist Party to block the National Front in future elections. This sends a dangerous signal that the Republican Party has viewed the National Front, led by Marina Le Pen, as a powerful shocker who surpassed the Socialist Party in the presidential campaign. Meanwhile, the left has lost what is considered a vote bank in the northern region of Calais-Picardy (now renamed Haute-De-France), and the ruling party is becoming marginalized.
Republican Party President Sarkozy and National Front President Marina Le Pen recently protested Hollande's commemoration of the Algerian war
It is foreseeable that next year's French general election, the people will face another choice: one is "extreme rightism", and the other is "republican values". Valls said that choosing the former would cause "civil unrest" in France. In the 2002 general election and last year's regional elections, the French people held the "bottom line", but what about 2017? Looking at the poor economic situation and the chaotic security situation, will the French people revise their "bottom line"?
In fact, Republican Chairman Sarkozy also has the potential to become "Trump". He likes to go to sea with the rich merchant yacht and often explodes foul mouths. Regarding refugee policy, although there is no overheated remarks, you should note that he is "only doing and not saying". During his term of office, he risked being punished by the United Nations, ordering the demolition of refugee camps and the deportation of refugees back to their country several times; at the same time, the punishment of underage immigrants was linked to their parents, and children broke the law and could not use legal means, but the residence and welfare of their parents would be affected, and even deported. During Sarkozy's tenure, the security was much better than it is now, which has a lot to do with his strong wrists.
France began dismantling the northern refugee camps
In the later presidential campaign, because the French people hated his character, which led to his failure, his governing philosophy was at least appreciated by the French elite.
Another "anecdote" could also prove Sarkozy's "resemblance" to Trump. According to the International Financial Times, a Ukrainian website included Trump, Sarkozy and actor Steven Syg on the list of national public enemies. The people on the list are divided into different categories, including "enemies," "traitors," "separatists," and "Kremlin agents." The site issued a warning to Ukraine's public enemies as they waited for a court decision. At the same time, web viewers are asked to remain vigilant, find out and condemn the enemies of the state on social media.
In next year's presidential election, it is really difficult to say whether Sarkozy will appear as the french "Trump". Although the political systems of Europe and the United States are very different, their deep cultures have their similarities. Even if Trump does not win the November presidential election, the political ideologies he unleashes or exposes are unlikely to fade with the end of the vote, which will affect the ecology of European countries. France, on the other hand, bore the brunt.
This article is the exclusive manuscript of the observer network, the content of the article is purely the author's personal views, does not represent the platform views, unauthorized, may not be reproduced, otherwise will be investigated for legal responsibility. Pay attention to the observer network WeChat guanchacn, read interesting articles every day.