In the development of automotive technology, there are always moments that will go down in history:
For example, in 1978, China Automobile issued an invitation to global car companies, which opened the prelude to joint ventures. In 2009, it surpassed the United States for the first time with an advantage of more than 3 million vehicles and became the world's first; In 2023, the self-owned brand will exceed 50% for the first time, breaking the market monopoly that has lasted for more than 40 years.
And next year, what will happen?
Industry insiders predict that if nothing else, from next year, there may be three major changes in the auto industry: those who intend to buy a car need to be prepared.
The first change is that new energy vehicles may become the mainstream.
That may sound crazy, after all, 2025 is less than a year away. Until now, there are still many people who question that trams are pseudo demand, and they can't replace gasoline cars at all, but they are just scams.
However, it is not 1-2 people who express this point of view, even the "head" of Volkswagen China, Bai Ruide, agrees with this statement.
According to his opinion, in the past year, Volkswagen's global headquarters has spent a lot of energy to conduct in-depth discussions on the future development of China's new energy vehicles.
Previously, their prediction was that it would be 2027 or 2028 before it could really usher in a turning point and become the mainstream of sales in the market. But after a few months of discussions, they adjusted the market inflection point to around 2025.
In other words, from next year, even according to the annual sales, the buyers of gasoline cars will be in the minority, and the mainstream people will choose trams.
Based on this background, we may have to be cautious when buying a car.
Because after the market is really tilted in this direction, it is not a question of who or few: rather, the depreciation rate of gasoline vehicles will be higher and higher, and many models will be delisted at an accelerated pace.
In such a situation, there are 316 million oil trucks in stock, and if you insist on choosing oil trucks - when the second-hand cars are used, who can be sold to them may be a problem.
The second is that more and more brands will go out of business.
In fact, it doesn't take until next year, there are already signs of this this year.
For example, Blue Whale News learned from a number of internal employees of Guangben that Guangben has launched a large-scale layoff in the form of step-by-step notices, and the scale is expected to be thousands of people.
The reason is very simple, that is, the overall fuel vehicle market is sluggish, and the new energy business in China has not yet opened the market.
It sounds very flat, but in reality, the data is a bit precarious: for example, the disclosure of institutions shows that in April this year, the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands were only 450,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 26%.
Therefore, this is not a problem of the Hiromoto family, and many joint venture car companies have encountered a crisis.
In order to cope with such a situation, many car companies have started plans to reduce production capacity, and some brands may even go bankrupt or withdraw from the risk.
In addition, the tram market is not as optimistic as expected.
Because the mainstream view is that the new energy market has begun to enter the knockout stage, the next competition is - who can "survive"!
Therefore, the refrigerator color TV sofa is full, and it has directly hit 129,900, which is only half of the price of its "originator" ideal car.
Other car companies have also opened the price reduction mode, following the gecko's "broken tail to survive"!
This sounds great, because you can pick up the slack, but don't rush to rejoice.
What if the car company goes out of business? The ending may be worse than expected.
Referring to the owners of WM Motor, the problems they are facing now are: difficult maintenance, difficult insurance, and the car cannot be started.
So, don't get carried away by the offers and be careful when buying a car.
The third change is that semi-solid-state batteries may usher in an explosion.
Don't look at many previous experts and scholars, including Wu Kai, the chief scientist of CATL, who also said that "solid-state batteries" are still far from real commercialization.
But in recent days, Wu Kai immediately changed his tune.
At the China International Battery Technology Exchange Conference, it was said that CATL has the opportunity to produce semi-solid-state batteries in small batches in 2027.
Why are the words so inconsistent? Because in 2025, semi-solid-state batteries may usher in an explosion.
To put it bluntly, let alone last year, several car companies have shown their "muscles" this year: for example, the semi-solid-state battery carried by NIO has directly completed the real range of 1000 kilometers; The new car launched by SAIC Zhiji is also equipped with this type of battery, and the price has been hit to 330,000 yuan.
In such a situation, next year, there will be dozens of car companies to adopt such batteries, which will stretch the range to 1000 kilometers.
The key is not the number of kilometers, compared to traditional batteries, semi-solid-state batteries use a solid-state electrolyte, or a hybrid electrolyte.
Because of this, the internal structure is also more stable and more resistant to low temperatures, making it difficult to produce short circuits and thermal runaways.
This also means that the so-called collision and fire, natural and other things, can almost become "zero".
Therefore, if you have the conditions and the budget, it is best to buy a tram equipped with such a battery next year, not to mention the safety, and the battery life is particularly powerful.
All in all, in the face of the three major changes in the auto industry next year, car buyers need to be more cautious.
New energy vehicles may dominate the market, the risk of brand failure increases, and the semi-solid-state battery technology is becoming more and more mature....These changes will profoundly affect our car purchase decisions, and we have to know in advance.