Recently, a news from an overseas open source platform has caused a boil of public opinion in Russia: General Surovikin, the former commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces and former commander-in-chief of the special military operation, may be reactivated by President Putin to take up key positions. Although this news has not been officially confirmed, given its past record and the needs of the current situation, analysts believe that this possibility cannot be ignored.
[Battlefield veteran, controversy returns]
Surovikin, known as the "Doomsday General" for his outstanding performance on the Syrian battlefield, is known for his hard-nosed style and actual combat ability. During his tenure as commander-in-chief of the special military operation, the Surovikin Line became an insurmountable obstacle for the Ukrainian army. However, his transfer was not an inconspicuous success, but a complex political game – close ties with Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, and the group's impressive performance on the battlefield compared to the regular army, put Surovikin in a delicate position.
[Shadow of Mutiny and Personnel Changes]
During last year's mutiny, Surovikin was accused of failing to report the incident, which indirectly contributed to the development, which eventually led to a change in his position and his retirement from the command structure. With the reorganization within the Wagner Group and the unexpected death of Puligzhin, the political obstacles to Surovikin's return to the fore were gradually removed, paving the way for his comeback.
[Personnel shuffle, Surovikin's role]
At the critical moment of facing the summer offensive, Putin urgently needs a strong general who can stabilize the morale of the army and promote the war situation. Surovikin's comeback can not only be used as a pawn for internal personnel adjustments to balance the forces within the army, but also may lead a group of generals who had suffered setbacks due to Wagner's relationship to return to the front line and form a new factional force.
【Surovikin's New Mission】
There has been a lot of speculation about Surovikin's new position, with each scenario, from the deputy defense minister to the commander of the Northern Operational Cluster, focused on maximizing his command skills. As a potential leader of the Northern Operational Cluster, he will be tasked with breaking through the Ukrainian defenses, threatening key cities and disrupting enemy deployments.
【Realistic Challenges and Expectations】
Even if Surovikin returned, its impact on the battlefield would not be decisive. The contest on the European battlefield is essentially a competition of comprehensive national strength, and the continuous assistance of the United States and Europe has made the Ukrainian army resilient in many aspects. If the Russian army wants to make a major breakthrough in the summer offensive, it also needs to rely on the correctness and efficiency of strategic decisions to avoid repeating historical mistakes.
Surovikin's comeback rumors are not only a turning point in his personal fate, but also a reflection of Russia's military and political calculations in a complex international situation. Whether or not it ultimately comes true, this dynamic is enough to provide a lot of room for interpretation for observers inside and outside Russia, and it also adds some uncertainty to the future of the war.